BRICS
Is BRICS the Chinese NAM? By Srinivasa Raghavan
1. BRICS a silly gimmicky name if ever there was one, has now been
captured by China. This was to be expected. The combined GDP of others
dont add up to China’s - $12 trillion
2. Russia, the other biggie is now China’s vassal
3. Modi calls it, non-western alliance. China wants to call it an
anti-western alliance. The former is geography, later is geopolitics.
4. India has actually also been quite an aggressive maker of groups that
fail. - SAARC and BIMSTEC
5. Big difference between NAM and BRICS is that NAM was born out of
Nehru’s idealism, BRICS is born out of China’s pragmatism
6. Other - NAM at its core is morality school. BRICS will now become a
commodity trading hub, mostly for oil food and metals
7. New group creation - victory of hope over experience
8. COMECON - Russia’s economic failure, China is repeating the same
mistake
9. Homogeneity is a necessary condition, if not a sufficient one. The
Western Hemisphere’s homogeneity has never been in doubt. They
are white, Christian, Democratic and Capitalistic
Recent:
15th BRICS summit in Johannesburg announced that the five member
grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) had invited six new
members — Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from West
Asia; Egypt and Ethiopia from Africa, and Argentina from Latin America. It was
reported that 40 countries have shown interest in BRICS’ membership, with
22 having submitted formal applications.
The implications of expansion of BRICS - Talmiz Ahmad
1. united in their dissatisfaction with the West dominated international
institutions that had emerged after the Second World War. At
Johannesburg, the UN Secretary General António Guterres described
them as reflecting “yesterday’s world”
2. BRICS challenges this West-led world order: it promotes intraBRICS
economic and political cooperation, builds institutions outside western
control, and agitates robustly for wideranging reforms to accommodate
the presence and interests of emerging economies. The Johannesburg
Declaration categorically asserts that the members’ “strategic
partnership” will be directed at achieving “a more representative,
fairer international order”
3. economic clout to the enlarged conclave - BRICS will have 46% of
world population, while its share of the global GDP will go from 31.5%
in PPP terms to 37%, far ahead of the GDP of 30.7% of the G7. The five
core members account for 23% of global exports and 19% of global
imports; with the new members, these figures will be boosted by 3.7%
and 3%, respectively. The major impact will be on the energy sector: out
of global oil production of about 90 million barrels per day (mbd) in
2022, the earlier five BRICS members had accounted for 20% of global
output; this will go to 42%.
4. geostrategic value to the grouping - Those from West Asia are already
closely tied to BRICS members: 35% of Saudi oil production goes to
China and India; Russia, already a major oil supplier to China and India,
is now looking at Brazil as a market. Despite sanctions by the United
States, Iran has increased oil production from a low of 400,000 barrels
per day in the Trump period to 2.2 mbd in August this year, most of it
going to China. Egypt and Ethiopia are an important presence in the
strategically important Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, while Argentina
is the second largest economy in Latin America.
5. no shared vision and being a “talkshop” with no worthwhile
achievements - These criticisms have little substance. BRICS leaders
have met over 15 years and every time have overcome their internal
divisions and competitions to issue a consensual “Declaration”. Over the
years, the declarations have expanded in content, focused on specific
deliverables and have steadily expanded their areas of interest.
Members have agreed to “encouraging the use of local currencies in
internal trade and financial transactions” between BRICS and other
trading partners.
Talmiz Ahmad:
“While western writers continue to harp on the emerging global binary divide
and the “new cold war”, India and other BRICS members reject this
shortsighted view and insist on asserting their strategic autonomy in a
multipolar world order, with membernations demanding that their voices be
heard and their interests respected. It is not surprising, then, that a recent
media report described the Johannesburg summit as a “turning point in
modern history”.
BRICS 2.0 - Rajiv Bhatia
INDIA’S ROLE:
Seminal but challenging given its growing cooperation with the West on one
side & its position as voice of the global South.
We face hard options on BRICS architecture
● India professed resolute neutrality in what is shaping up another cold
war btw two blocs.
● Beijing has forging ties in Southeast Asia & West Asia, apart from Africa,
while Moscow has rattled Europe’s post-WW II equanimity
● Although New Delhi concerned about rigid structures of multilateral
institutions run by west & US dollar’s grip on cross border transaction
● An alternate architecture with a Chinese blueprint - we did not
want to bargain
● An anti-west position is not what India should signal even
accidently as India works to engage the West closer to capitalize on
opportunities that arises from rupture in Western relations with China
● Only in a cleaved-apart zone of trade can BRICS currency dethrone
dollar. We want neither a divided world, nor one that forces us to
pick a side. We mustn’t over invest in BRICS.
Not another BRICS in the Wall – SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR
● South Africa hopes to ultimately make BRICS an African-majority group.
Where it can claim to be the leader.
● China – to convert it into anti-western front by inducting countries
dependent on Chinese aid & investment
● BRICS -5 emerging markets with the largest population hence political
influence in the 4 continents – countries found the acronym irresistible.
So BRICS became political group
● China has imperial ambition – to combat this Indian diplomats keep
following points:
● Oppose reckless expansion in search of members [NAM –
Cuba(soviet ally), Singapore (US military ally), lost all ideological
coherence]
● Indrani Bagchi - Don’t let BRICS convert into sort of NAM or
G-77 which achieved so little for developing country in last 5
decades
● Russia become a Chinese proxy would like to convert into anti-western
front. India-Brazil must oppose this
● Use this to improve chances of entering UNSC (China, Egypt, Argentina
oppose – India could veto such naysayers)
Why do so many developing countries want to join BRICS?
● Current grouping not helped much. China economy slowdown, COVID,
Ukraine war – taken heavy toll on economies
● African countries feel their interest ignored in Pandemic. Many rejected
western version of Ukraine war, think continuation of cold war. Many
grateful for Chinese aid