Bertand’s Box Paradox and Intuition
Recently we have been investigating Mathematics as an area of knowledge in our TOK
classes. In one of these classes, we talked about Bertand’s box paradox while talking about intuition
and mathematics. Imagine you have three boxes and two drawers in each box. You have three gold,
three silver coins. You place these coins in the boxes in the way, where the first box has two gold
coins, the second box has one gold and one silver coin, and the third box has two silver coins. Assume
you open one random drawer and the drawer has a gold coin. The question of the paradox arises right
at this moment: what is the probability of the next drawer containing another gold coin?
When I was trying to answer this question, I thought: well, this is strange. The answer is
pretty clear right? So I decided that it was ½. I tried to think about different answers, since a paradox’s
answer could not be this easy, but did not reach to another solution. And I was confident in myself
finding the right answer since probability is my favorite and best subject. Then I wondered how I
reached this answer in my head. Looking at the ways of knowings we learnt in our TOK classes, I was
pretty sure the WOK I used in this instance was reasoning. But I was actually far away from the truth.
Then our teacher revealed the answer was actually ⅔, I was in disbelief. Our teacher explained the
situation with steps and I read our course book to understand it, but my brain could not process or
accept any answers in this area. So I decided to do more detailed research on my own. I read multiple
blog posts, watched youtube videos and checked out academic writings to reach the answer in the
most correct and understandable way.
So, the explanation is like this. Since there are three gold coins that are possible to get chosen
in the first drawer we opened -one in the silver-gold box, two in the gold-gold box- we should start
with three different possibilities, not two like I thought. And since there are two other gold coins
possibly to get in our second drawer, the answer to the question becomes ⅔. Even though this is a
basic explanation and the truth, It took me a long time to understand why the answer was like this and
accept it. After this experience I realized that the WOK I actually used while reaching my first answer
was no reasoning, It was intuition. That was the point where I realized this problem was actually
about TOK.
My thought process was led by my intuition that I gained while solving possibility questions.
Because of this, I was thinking with a tunnel vision that made me think there is only one way to look
at this problem. And this is also the reason why it was so hard for me to grasp the true answer. The
answer I found was coming from rooted experience and making it hard for me to look at the problem
from another point of view. This experience made me more familiar with the relationship between
maths and TOK and raised the knowledge question: To what extent is intuition a reliable way of
knowing?
In mathematics, intuition is mostly present in the process of solving problems. This is not
always a bad thing. Having a strong maths intuition can make you solve questions quickly and grasp
some topics easier. However, this intuition sometimes can also blind you and prevent seeing other
solutions. Also, like in my instance, you can encounter this side of the intuition without even realizing
it. This becomes a big problem especially when you think you were only using objective reasoning in
your solution process. And this was the exact mistake I made. Even though I thought I had a strong
grasp about the topic, I could not find the true answer. With the mistake, I saw how this could lead
even the smartest mathematicians to incorrect results. Intuition can lead to correct answers and be
reliable in some scenarios since it is connected with experience and past mistakes. However, it is also
a fact that intuition itself creates a biased way of thinking and can lead to false answers hence be an
unreliable way of knowing.
Learning from my experience, I will be more cautious about the ways of knowing I use while
dealing with maths in the future. This does not mean that I will stop using my intuition, it means that I
will be using it consciously and making sure that my intuition has objective reasoning other than my
own experiences. This way I will reach knowledge more accurately and free from biases.