Introduction to reliability function

Independent Components in Reliability Engineering

In reliability engineering and system analysis, independent components refer to

individual system elements whose failure or performance does not influence the failure
or performance of other components in the system. This assumption simplifies
reliability calculations and is commonly used in system reliability modelling.
Definition of Independent Components

Two or more components are considered independent if the failure or survival of one
component does not affect the probability of failure or survival of the other components.
Mathematically, if A and B represent the events that two components survive, then their
independence implies:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
where:
• P (A∩B) is the probability that both components survive.
• P (A) and P (B) are the probabilities of individual component survival.
Similarly, for failure probabilities:
P (FA∩FB) =P (FA) P (FB)
where FA​ and FB​ represent the failure events of components A and B.
State Variable
A state variable is a fundamental concept in engineering, physics, and mathematics,
representing a quantity that defines the state of a system at any given time. The state
of a system is a collection of variables that describe its condition, and these variables
evolve over time according to system dynamics.
Definition of a State Variable

A state variable is any variable that provides necessary and sufficient information to
describe the current condition of a system. The future behaviour of the system
depends only on the current values of the state variables, not on past values.

Mathematically, a system's state at time t is represented as:

𝑥(𝑡) = [𝑥1(𝑡), 𝑥2(𝑡), . . . , 𝑥𝑛(𝑡)ሿ

where:
• x(t) is the state vector, consisting of multiple state variables.
• x1,x2,...,xn​ are individual state variables.
Probabilities of Interest

Reliabilities (=Function probabilities)

𝑅𝑖 𝑡 = Pr 𝑥𝑖 𝑡 = 1 = Pr(𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡)

𝑅𝑠 𝑡 = Pr ∅(𝑥𝑖 𝑡 ) = 1 = Pr(𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝑓𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡)

When the components are independent, the system reliability 𝑅𝑠 𝑡 is function of

𝑅𝑖 𝑡 and written as

𝑅𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑓(𝑅𝑖 𝑡 )
System Modelling and Analysis

• Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD):

o Description: A graphical or Visual representation of the components and
their reliability interactions within a system.
o Application: Used to model system reliability and understand how
individual components contribute to overall performance.
System reliability

System reliability stands for the reliability of a system consisting of two or more
components. It is difficult to estimate the reliability of the system composing of many
elements. Following approach is used to determine the reliability of a system.
Series Configuration
A series configuration is one of the simplest and most fundamental arrangements in
reliability engineering. In this configuration, components are arranged in a sequence where
the failure of any single component leads to the failure of the entire system. This
arrangement is common in many real-world systems, such as electronic circuits, where a
break in the connection (like a failed resistor or capacitor) causes the entire circuit to fail.

Characteristics of Series Configuration

▪ Single Point of Failure:
▪ The system's reliability is only as strong as its weakest component. If any
component fails, the entire system fails.
▪ Cumulative Failure Probability:
▪ The probability of system failure increases with the number of components, as each
component introduces a potential failure point.
▪ Simple Reliability Calculation:
▪ The overall reliability of a system in series is the product of the reliabilities of its
individual components.
Example Calculation
Suppose you have a system with three components connected in series, each with the
following reliabilities: R1=0.95, R2=0.90, R3=0.92

R1=0.95 R1=0.90 R1=0.92

Parallel Configuration

A parallel configuration is a system design approach where multiple components are

arranged in parallel, allowing for redundancy and increasing the overall system reliability.
In this setup, the system continues to function as long as at least one component remains
operational. Parallel configurations are commonly used in systems where high reliability
and availability are critical, such as in aerospace, telecommunications, and data centers.
Characteristics of Parallel Configuration
▪ Redundancy:
▪ Parallel systems provide redundancy, meaning that if one component fails, others
can take over, ensuring that the system continues to function.
▪ Increased Reliability:
▪ The overall reliability of a parallel system is greater than the reliability of its
individual components.
▪ Failure Independence:
▪ Components in parallel typically operate independently, meaning the failure of one
component does not directly affect others.
Consider a system with three components in parallel, each with the following
reliabilities: R1=0.85, R2=0.90, R3=0.80

R1=0.85

R2=0.90

R3=0.80
Mixed configuration

Mixed configuration combines both series and parallel arrangements of components

within a system. This approach leverages the benefits of both configurations to balance
reliability, cost, and complexity. In a mixed configuration, certain parts of the system are
arranged in series, while others are arranged in parallel, creating a hybrid structure that
aims to optimize overall system performance.
Characteristics of Mixed Configuration
[Link] of Series and Parallel:
1. Mixed configurations incorporate both series and parallel elements within the
same system, allowing for fit the reliability solutions based on specific needs.
[Link] Flexibility:
1. This approach provides flexibility to address different reliability requirements
by using the strengths of both series and parallel configurations.
[Link] Reliability:
1. By strategically placing components in series or parallel, a mixed
configuration can achieve a higher level of reliability and fault tolerance.
Example Calculation
Consider a system with the following configuration:
•A series block containing two parallel sub-blocks.
•Each parallel sub-block has two components.

R11=0.85 R21=0.80

R12=0.90 R22=0.75
Standby Configuration

Standby configuration is a reliability strategy where one or more backup components are
available to take over if the primary component fails. This setup is designed to enhance
the reliability and availability of a system by ensuring that a standby component can
immediately replace a failed one, minimizing system downtime.
Reliability block diagram for a missile system
Characteristics of Standby Configuration
[Link] Components:
1. Standby configurations involve redundant components or systems that remain
inactive until they are needed due to a failure in the primary component.
[Link] or Manual Switching:
1. Automatic Standby: The system automatically switches to the standby
component upon detecting a failure in the primary component.
2. Manual Standby: The switch to the standby component must be initiated
manually by an operator.
[Link] or Multiple Standbys:
1. Systems can have a single standby component or multiple standbys, depending on
the required level of reliability and redundancy.
m of n Reliability
The "m of n" reliability model is a reliability concept used to describe systems where a
specific number of components (m) out of a total number of components (n) need to
function properly for the entire system to be considered operational. This model is
particularly useful for understanding and designing systems with redundancy and fault
tolerance.
Suppose we have a system with n = 5 components, and the system requires at least m = 3
operational components to function. Each component has a success probability p=0.9.
 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a systematic, deductive failure analysis method used in
reliability engineering to identify the potential causes of system failures. It involves the
creation of a fault tree, a graphical representation that uses Boolean logic to describe the
pathways leading to a failure or "top event."

Key Components of FTA:

[Link] Event:
1. This is the undesirable event or system failure need to be analysed. In the
diagram, it's at the top of the tree.
[Link] Events:
1. These are events that occur as a result of one or more basic events or other
intermediate events.
2. They contribute to the occurrence of the top event.
•Basic Events:
•These are the primary causes of failure, often depicted as circles at the bottom
of the tree.

•Logic Gates:
•AND Gate:
•All inputs must occur for the output to occur. Depicted as a flat bottom with a
curved top.
•OR Gate:
•At least one input must occur for the output to occur. Shown as a curved bottom.
•These gates help define how various events combine to cause higher-level
failures.
 A simple BDA for an aircraft internal combustion engine.

▪ There are two ignition systems in an active parallel redundant configuration.

The FTA shows that the top event failure to start can be caused by either fuel flow
failure carburetor failure or ignition failure (three-input OR gate). At a lower level
total ignition failure is caused by failure of ignition systems 1 and 2 (two-input AND
gate).
STATE-SPACE ANALYSIS (MARKOV ANALYSIS)

A system or component can be in one of two states (e-g. failed, non-failed), and we can
define the probabilities associated with these states on a discrete or continues basis, the
probability of being in one or other at a future time can be evaluated using state-space (or
state-time) analysis. In reliability and availability analysis, failure probability and the
probability of being returned to an available state, failure rate and repair rate, are the
variables of interest.

The best-known state-space analysis technique is Markov analysis. The Markov method
can be applied under the following major constraints:

• The probabilities of changing from one state to another must remain constant, i.e. the
process must be homogenous. Thus, the method can only be used when a constant
hazard or failure rate assumption can be justified.
• Future states of the system are independent of all past states except the immediately
preceding one. This is an important constraint in the analysis of repairable systems,
since it implies that repair returns the system to an 'as new' condition.
Nevertheless, Markov analysis can be usefully applied to system reliability, safety and
availability studies, particularly to maintained systems for which BDA is not directly
applicable, provided that the constraints described above are not too severe. The
method is used for analysing complex systems such as power generation and
communications. Computer programs can conveniently be written for Markov analysis.

Two-state Markov state transition diagram

The Markov method can be illustrated by considering a single component, which can
be in one of two states: failed (F) and available (A). The probability of transition from
A to F is PA-F and from F to A is PF-A. Figure shows the situation diagrammatically.
This is called a state transition or a state-space diagram. All states, all transition
probabilities and probabilities of remaining in the existing state (=1- transition
probability) are shown. This is a discrete Markov chain, since we can use it to describe
the situation from increment to increment of time.

Example:

The component in Figure 1 has transitional probabilities in equal time intervals as

follows:
PA-F =0.1
PF-A = 0.6
What is the probability of being available after four-time intervals, assuming that the
system is initially available?
This problem can be solved by using a tree diagram
The availability of the system is shown plotted by time interval in Figure. Note how
availability approaches a steady state after a number of time intervals. This is a
necessary conclusion of the underlying assumptions of constant failure and repair rates
and of s-independence of events.

Figure: Transient
availability of
repaired system

Whilst the transient states will be dependent upon the initial conditions (available or
failed), the steady state condition is independent of initial condition. However, the rate at
which the steady state is approached is dependent upon the initial condition and on
transition probabilities.
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
In a Monte Carlo simulation, a logical model of the system being analysed is repeatedly
evaluated, each run using different values of the distributed parameters. The selection
of parameter values is made randomly, but with probabilities governed by the relevant
distribution functions.

Monte Carlo simulation can be used for system reliability and availability modelling,
using suitable computer programs. Since Monte Carlo simulation involves complex
mathematical analysis, it is an attractive alternative approach. It is a relatively easy way
to model complex systems, and the input algorithms are easy to understand. There are
no constraints regarding the nature of input assumptions on parameters such as failure
and repair rates, so non-constant values can be used. It is also easy to model aspects
such as queueing rules for repairs, repair on priorities and 'cannibalization' (the use of
serviceable Spare parts from unserviceable systems).
One problem with Monte Carlo analysis is its expensive use of computer time. Since
every event (failure, repair, movement, etc.) must be sampled for every unit of time,
using the input distributions, a simulation of a moderately large system over a
reasonable period of time can require hours of computer run-time. Also, since the
simulation of probabilistic events generates variable results, in effect simulating the
variability of real life, it is usually necessary to perform a number of runs in order to
obtain estimates of means and variances of the output parameters of interest, such as
availability, number of repairs arising and repair facility utilization. On the other
hand, the effects of variations can be assessed.