Probability.
Areas to be covered:
• Meaning of probability
• Terms associated with probability
• Types of probability
• Calculation of probability
• Rules of probability
Probability.
Definition:
Probability is a measure of
chance/certainity/likelihood/possibility of
occurrence of something.
Terms associated with probability
1. Random/probability experiment/trial: A
process that leads to well defined results.
Eg
• Tossing a coin
• Rolling a die
• Playing a football game
• Writing examinations
• Giving birth
Terms associated with probability
(cont…)
2. Out come: A result of a random experiment
Eg
• a win as a result of playing a game
• Pass as a result of writing an examination
• Head or tail as a result of tossing a coin.
Terms associated with probability
(cont…)
3. Event: An outcome of interest of a random
experiment
Eg. A boy as an outcome of interest of a random
experiment , giving birth.
Mutually exclusive events
Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the
occurrence of one event means that the other
event can not occur. In this case when one event
takes place, the probability of the other event
occurring is zero.
In terms of sets, are pairwise disjoint sets
Mutually exclusive events
Example
When a die is rolled, which of the following
events are mutually exclusive
Event A: getting a 1
Event B : getting a 4
Event C: getting an even number
Event D: getting a numbe less than 5
Independent events
Events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one event doe not affect the
occurrence of another.
Example
Give examples of independent events of a given
random experiment
Terms associated with probability (cont…)
4. Sample/possibility space : A set of all
possible outcomes of a random
experiment.
Sample space for a single random experiment:
Find the sample space in each of the following random
experiments:
1. Tossing a coin
2. Rolling a die
3. Writing an examination
4. Find the sample space for drawing one card from
an ordinary deck of cards.
Sample space for a single experiment
Solution
1. { Head, Tail} or {H,T}
2. {1,2,3,4,5,6}
3. {pass, fail}
Sample space for a single experiment( cont…)
There are four suits(hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades) and
13 cards fro each suit ( ace through king) there are 52
outcomes in the sample space as follows:
Sample space for a paired experiments
Find the sample space in each of the following random
experiments:
1. Tossing a coin and rolling a die at the same time.
2. Rolling two dice simultaneously
3. Gender of children if a family has three children.
Use M for male and F for female.
Sample space for a paired
experiments( cont …)
Solution
1.
Rolling a die
1 2 3 4 5 6
Tossing
a H H,1 H,2 H,3 H,4 H,5 H,6
coin
T T,1 T,2 T,3 T,4 T,5, T,6
Sample space for a paired
experiments( cont …)
2.
Rolling die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6
Rolling
die 2 2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,5 2,6
3 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6
4 4,1 4,2 4,3 4,4 4,5 4,6
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,5 5,6
6 6,1 6,2 6,3 6,4 6,5 6,6
Sample space for a paired experiments( cont
…)
3.
• After the first birth {M,F}
• After the second birth First birth
Second M F
birth M M,M M,F
F F,M F,F
• After the third birth
First two births
M,M M,F F,M F,F
Third M M,M,M M,M,F M,F,M M,F,F
birth
F F,M,M F,M,F F,F,M F,F,F
Finding sample space using a tree diagram
Tree diagram: Is a diagram consisting of line segments
emanating from a starting point and also from the outcome
point.
Eg 2nd Exp
outcome
1st Exp
outcome 2nd Exp
Note: a branch represents outcome and a point of branching represents experiment.
Finding sample space using tree
diagram
Sample space of gender of children if a family has three children. Use M for
male and F for female
Types of probability
The types of probability include the following
1. Subjective probability: Thus a probability derived from one’s
personal judgment/experience about whether an event is
likely going to occur.
Eg
• There is 90% chance that team A will win the game because
last year and last of last year it worn against the same team.
• If you propose her there is 5% chance that she will reject you.
Disadvantage: Not accurate
Types of probability
2. Objective(Empirical) probability : Probability
derived from analysis/calculation based on
recorded observation of a random experiment
Eg
• Probability of getting a head after tossing a coin.
• Probability of getting a 4 after rolling a die.
• Probability of getting an ace after drawing a
playing card.
Types of probability
3. Classical probability : Thus a special case of
objective probability which involves
experiments whose outcomes are equally
likely ( have the same chance of occurring)
Examples of such experiments include
• Tossing a coin, rolling a die, giving birth.
Calculating probability of an event
Probability that an event E will occur is given by
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑬 𝑛(𝑬)
P(E) = =
𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑝𝑐𝑒(𝑺) 𝑛(𝑺)
Note: Probability of an event E can be presented as a
• Fraction or
• Decimal or
• Percentage
Calculating probability of an event
Example:
Find probability of;
a) getting an even number from S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
b) getting a jack after drawing a card from a deck of standard playing cards
c) getting the sum of the outcome being less than 8 if two dice are rolled at the
same time.
d) Travelling by driving given the following methods of travelling
Method Frequency( how many used it)
By driving 41
By flying 6
Others means 3
Total 50
Calculating probability of an event
Solution
𝑛(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) 4
1. P(even number) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 9
𝑛(𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠) 4
2. P( jack card) = =
𝑛(𝑆) 52
3. Sample space
Die 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1+1=2 1+2=3 1+3=4 1+4=5 1+5=6 1+6=7
2 2+1=3 2+2=4 2+3=5 2+4=6 2+5=7 2+6=8
Die 2 3 3+1=4 3+2=5 3+3=6 3+4=7 3+5=8 3+6=9
4 4+1=5 4+2=6 4+3=7 4+4=8 4+5=9 4+6=10
5 5+1=6 5+2=7 5+3=8 5+4=9 5+5=10 5+6=11
6 6+1=7 6+2=8 6+3=9 6+4=10 6+5=11 6+6=12
Calculating probability of an event
Solution
𝑛(𝑠𝑢𝑚 < 8) 21
3. P( sum < 8) = = 36
𝑛(𝑆𝑢𝑚)
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑏𝑦 𝑑𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 41
4. P( by driving) = = 50
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦
Basic Probability Rules
The probability of any event,𝐸,is a number (either a fraction
or a decimal) between and including 0 and1 .i,e 0≤P(𝐸)≤1
If an event,𝐸,can not occur ([Link] event contains no
members in the sample space) its probability is 0.
If an event ,𝐸, is certain, then the probability is 1.
The sum of all probabilities of all out comes in the sample
space is 1. i.e P(S)= 1
Probability of a complement of an event is given by
P(Ec) or P(E’) or P(𝑬
ഥ ) = 1 – P(E)
Additional rule of probability
Given events A and B. The probability of having event A
or event B occurring is given by
P( A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P( A∩B)
This equation is called the additional rule of probability
Note: If A and B and Mutually exclusive, P( A∩B) = 0.
then the additional rule become
P( A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Additional rule of probability
Example
When a die is rolled find the probability of getting:
a)An even number or number less than 5
b)An even number or odd number
Additional rule of probability
Solution
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let even number be event A, number less than 5 be
event B, odd number be event C
a)P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P( A∩B) = 3/6 + 4/6 - 2/6
= 5/6
b) P(A or c) = P(A) + P(C) – P( A∩ C) = 3/6 + 3/6 - 0
= 6/6 =1
Multiplication rule of probability
Given events A and B, the probability of
occurrence of both the events A and B is given
by:
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B) if A and B are two
independent events
P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) = P(B) . P(A|B) If A and B
are dependent events
Multiplication rule of probability
Example
1 1 1
Let A and B be some events such that P(A) = , P(B) = 3 and P(A∩B) = 4
2
1. Determine whether A and B are independent events
2. Find
P(A∪B)
P(Ac|Bc).
Multiplication rule of probability
Solution
1
1
P(A∩B) = 4
1 1
P(A).P(B) = ×3
2
1
= 6
Since P(A∩B) ≠ P(A).P(B) then A and B are not independent.
Multiplication rule of probability
Solution
2
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
1 1 1
= + -4
2 3
7
= 12
Multiplication rule of probability
Solution
2
P(Ac|Bc) = [P(Ac∩Bc)] ÷P(Bc)
= P[(A∩B)c] ÷P(Bc)
= [1- P(A∪B)] ÷ [1- P(B)]
7 1
= [1- 12 ] ÷ [1- 3 ]
5
= 8
Multiplication rule of probability
Assignment
Given that P (A∩B∩D) = P(A) .P(B).P(D), P( A∩B) = P(A).P(B) and P(B∩D) = P(B).P(D) . Prove
that P[(A∪D) ∩Bc] = P(A∪D).P(Bc)
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is a measure of the
probability of an event occurring, given that
another event has already occurred. Let A and B
be some events the probability of A occurring
given that B has already occurred is given by
𝑃(𝐴 ∩𝐵)
P(A|B) =
𝑃(𝐵)
Example
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought accounting is a good profession.
The results are given below:
Gender Yes No Total
Male 32 18 50
Female 8 42 50
Total 40 60 100
Find the
1. Probability that a respondent answered yes, given that she was
female.
2. Probability that a respondent was a male, given that he said no.
Conditional probability
Soln
Let yes be Y, No be N, female be F and male be M
𝑃( 𝑌∩𝐹) 8 50 8
1. P(Y|F) = = ÷ =
𝑃(𝐹) 100 100 50
𝑃( 𝑀∩𝑁) 18 60 18
2. P(M|N) = = ÷ =
𝑃(𝑁) 100 100 60
Conditional probability
Assignment
Of the voters in a city, 40% are DPP and 60% are UTM. Among the DPP, 70% are in favor of a
certain bill where as 80% of the UTM favor the bill. If a voter is selected at random in the
city, what is the probability that he/she will be in favor of the bill