Chapter 6: Review – Due on Wednesday, March 18th at 11.
59PM
Basic Concepts of Probability
Definitions:
A _______________________ is a number between 0 and 1 representing how likely it is that a
given event will occur.
A _______________________ is an experiment whose outcome is not known until it is observed.
A _______________________, S, is a set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
Note: Every possible outcome is listed only once.
A ________________________ is an element of the sample space.
An __________________ is a subset of the sample space. That is, any collection of outcomes
forms an event.
Ex. 1: Suppose you toss a coin twice. Describe the sample space and identify a sample point. If
A is the event that there is at least one head, write the event.
Sample space:
Sample point:
Event:
Ex. 3: Suppose you roll a die twice. Describe the sample space and identify a sample point. If Q
is the event that the numbers on the top is same, write the event Q.
Sample space:
Sample point:
Event:
Probability:
Classical Definition:
The probability of an event A, 𝑃(𝐴), is a measure of the __________________ that an event A will
occur.
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑨 𝒏(𝑨)
𝑷(𝑨) = =
Empirical Definition:
Probability in terms of relative frequency is defined as:
𝑷(𝑨) = =
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒇𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝒏
Law of Large Numbers
When we repeatedly conduct the same experiment, _________________probability of an event
will approach the _________________ probability of that event.
Quick Facts:
✓ 𝑷(𝑨) means “the probability of occurrence of an event A.
✓ 𝑷(𝑨) is read as “P of A”
✓ __________ ≤ 𝑷(𝑨) ≤ __________
✓ Probability closer to ______ indicates the event is more likely to occur.
✓ Probability closer to ______ indicates the event is less likely to occur.
The probability of any event is between 0 and 1, where an impossible event as a probability of
__________ and a certain event has a probability of ________.
The probability of the sample space is ________. Mathematically, we write 𝑃(𝑆) =______.
Two events, 𝐸𝑖 and 𝐸𝑗 are said to be mutually exclusive if 𝐸𝑖 ∩𝐸𝑖 =_____.
If 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … , 𝐸𝑛 are mutually exclusive events which, in union, form the sample space 𝑆, then
𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐸𝑛 ) = _________________ = 1.
Ex 3: Let the sample space of an event be 𝑆={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}. Suppose the simple events are
equally likely.
a). Compute the probability of the event A={8,9,10}.
b). Compute the probability of event B, where B is a prime number.
c). Compute the probability of the event C, where C is a number less than of 12.
d). Compute the probability of the event D, where D is a number greater than of 12.
d). Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Compute the probability of events A or B.
e). Write the elements of events A and C. Find the probability of events A and C. Are they mutually
exclusive?
Ex 4: Suppose a card is drawn at random from the deck of cards. Find the probability that the card
selected is
a). A card of six
b). A face card
c). A diamond card
d). A red queen card
e). A card of six or a face card
Probability of a Complement:
The ________ of an event 𝐴, is the set of outcomes not in event 𝐴, and is denoted by 𝐴 or 𝐴′ or 𝐴𝑐
The probability of the Compliment of 𝐴:
𝑷(𝑨𝒄 ) = 𝟏 − ________
This implies,
✓ 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ) = ________
✓ A ∪ 𝐴𝑐 = ________ implies 𝑃(A ∪ 𝐴𝑐 ) = P(S) = ________
✓ A ∩ 𝐴𝑐 = ________ implies 𝑃(A ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) = P(∅) = ________
Ex. 5: Lets consider the random experiment of rolling a fair die.
a). Write the sample space.
b). If event A is getting an odd number, write event A and find the probability of getting an odd
number.
b). Write the elements of 𝐴𝑐 and find the probability of 𝐴𝑐 .
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Ex. 6: If the probability of obtaining a sum of 11 when rolling two dice is 18, what is the probability
of not obtaining a sum of 11 on rolling two dice?
Independent and Dependent Events Definition:
Two events, A and B, are said to be (statistically) _________________ if the occurrence of one event
does not affect the occurrence of the other.
Two events, A and B, are said to be _________________ events if the occurrence of event A in a
(probability) experiment affects the probability of event B.
Ex. 7: Classify each of the events below as independent or dependent events.
a). Tossing a fair coin and rolling a fair die. _________________
b). Choosing a 10 from a standard deck of cards, replacing it, and then choosing a king the second
card. _________________
c). Selecting a king from a standard deck of 52 cards, not replacing it, and then selecting a queen
from the deck. _________________
Multiplicative Rule of Probability for Independent Events:
If A and B are (statistically) independent, then 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) = _________________
Ex 8: A coin is tossed, and a die is rolled. Find the probability of tossing a head and then rolling
a 6.
Ex 9: For anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstructive surgery, the probability that the surgery
is successful is 0.95. (Surgeries are independent)
a). Find the probability that three ACL surgeries are successful.
b). Find the probability that three ACL surgeries are not successful.