Basic statistics (Stat2011) Chapter 5

ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Introduction
Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of
inference is built.
It helps us to deal /cope up with uncertainty.
In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an
experiment. It is the measure of how likely an outcome is to
occur.
Definitions of some probability terms
1. Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or
any process, which generates well-defined outcome.
2. Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can be
repeated any number of times under similar conditions and it
is possible to enumerate the total number of outcomes with out
predicting an individual out come. It is also called random
experiment.
Example: If a fair die is rolled once, it is possible to list all the
possible outcomes i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible
to predict which outcome will occur.
3. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
4. Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment
Find the sample space of tossing a coin three times.
S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about
one or more outcomes of a random experiment .They are
denoted by capital letters.

Example: Considering a fair die rolled once, then let A be the event
of odd numbers, B be the event of even numbers, and C be
the event of number 8.

Remark:

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If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly

n
2 subsets or events.
 Impossible event: is an event which will never occur.
6. Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance
of occurring.
7. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A
means non- occurrence of A and is denoted by
contains those points of the sample space which don’t belong to A.
8. Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or
sample point.
9. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events, which cannot happen
at the same time.
10. Independent Events: Two events are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other
occurring.
11. Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the
first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the second
event in a way the probability is changed.
Example: What is the sample space for the following experiment
a) Toss a die one time.
b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life
length by time.
Solution
a) S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c) S={t /t≥0}
 Sample space can be
 Countable ( finite or infinite)
 Uncountable.
Counting Rules
In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
 The number of elements of an event
 The number of elements of the sample space.

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That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know

what is possible.
 In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use
several rules of counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule
 To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful
device called tree diagram is used.
Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a
breakfast. He can take tea, coffee, or milk with bread, cake and
sandwich. How many possibilities does he have?

Solutions:
Tea Bread
Bread Cake
Cake Sandwit
Sandwich ch
Coeffee
Milk

Bread
Cake
Sand witch
 Therefore, there are nine possibilities.
The Multiplication Rule:
If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in
n1 ways, the second can be made in n 2 ways…, the kth can be
made in nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in

Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit

identification card. How many different cards are possible if

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a) Repetitions are permitted.

b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th
digit
5 5 5 5
There are four steps
1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.

b)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th
digit
5 4 3 2
There are four steps
5. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
6. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 4 ways.
7. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 3 ways.
8. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 2 ways.

Permutation
An arrangement of n objects in a specified order is called
permutation of objects.
Permutation Rules:
1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken
all together is n!
Where
2. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r
objects at a time is called the permutation of n objects
taken r objects at a time. It is written as and the
formula is

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3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k 1 are

alike k2 are alike ---- etc is
Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the
four?
b) How many permutations are there two letters at a
time?
2. How many different permutations can be made from
the letters in the word “CORRECTION”?
Solutions:
1.
a)

b)

2.

Exercises:
1. Six different statistics books, seven different physics
books, and 3 different Economics books are arranged
on a shelf. How many different arrangements are
possible if;
i. The books in each particular subject must all stand
together
ii. Only the statistics books must stand together
2. If the permutation of the word WHITE is selected at
random, how many of the permutations
i. Begins with a consonant?

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ii. Ends with a vowel?

iii. Has a consonant and vowels alternating?
Combination
A selection of objects with out regard to order is called
combination.
Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation
and combination for selecting two letters.
Solutions:
Permutation Combination
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD BC
Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in
combination AB is the same as BA.
Combination Rule
The number of combinations of r objects selected from n
objects is denoted by and is given by the formula:

Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out
of 9 people?
Solutions:

2. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives. In how many

ways can an inspector chose three of the clocks for
inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.

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Solutions:

a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15

clocks and this can be done in :

b) None of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to zero defective and three non
defective, which can be done in:

c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.

This is equivalent to one defective and two non-
defective, which can be done in:

d) Two of the defective clock is included.

This is equivalent to two defective and one non
defective, which can be done in:

Exercises:
1. Out of 5 Mathematician and 7 Statistician a
committee consisting of 2 Mathematician and 3
Statistician is to be formed. In how many ways this
can be done if
a) There is no restriction
b) One particular Statistician should be included
c) Two particular Mathematicians can not be
included on the committee.
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf
containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems, and a
dictionary, in how many ways this can be don if

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a) There is no restriction.
b) The dictionary is selected?
c) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
Approaches to measuring Probability
There are four different conceptual approaches to the study
of probability theory. These are:
 The classical approach.
 The frequentist approach.
 The axiomatic approach.
 The subjective approach.
The classical approach
This approach is used when:
- All outcomes are equally likely.
- Total number of outcome is finite, say N.
Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely
outcomes is conducted and out of these N A outcomes are
favourable to the event A, then the probability that event A
occur denoted is defined as:

Examples:
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of
getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S

a) Let A be the event of number 4

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b) Let A be the event of odd numbers

c) Let A be the event of even numbers

d) Let A be the event of number 8

Ø

2. A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non

defective candles. If 10 of this candles are selected at
random, what is the probability
a) All will be defective.
b) 6 will be non defective
c) All will be non defective
Solutions:

a) Let A be the event that all will be defective.

b) Let A be the event that 6 will be non defective.

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c) Let A be the event that all will be non defective.

Exercises:
1. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve
alcoholic beverages to only three minors if she randomly
checks the I.D’s of five students from among ten students
of which four are not of legal age?
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5
novels, 3 books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the
probability that
a) The dictionary is selected?
b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
Short coming of the classical approach:
This approach is not applicable when:
- The total number of outcomes is infinite.
- Outcomes are not equally likely.
The Frequentist Approach
This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging
to an event.
Definition: The probability of an event A is the proportion of
outcomes favourable to A in the long run when the experiment
is repeated under same condition.

Therefore, the probability of the event A happening in the long run is

given by:

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P(A) = =

In other words given a frequency distribution, the probability of an

event (A) being

in a given class is P(A) =

Example: The national center for health statistics reported that of

every 539 deaths in recent years, 24 resulted that from automobile
accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from other disease. What is the
probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident?
Solution
P (automobile) = death due to automobile /total death =24/539 =
0.445
The probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident
is 0.445.
Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs
produced are defective. What is the probability of a newly
produced bulb to be defective?
Solution:
Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.

Axiomatic Approach:
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space
associated with E. With each event A a real number called the
probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms
of probability or postulates of probability.

1.
2.
3. Suppose A and B are two events of a sample space, then
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
Proof: (AUB) = AU(A' ∩ B), A and A' ∩ B are disjoint sets
P(AU B) = p(A) + p(A' ∩ B) . . . .*
But we have already proved that P (A’ n B) = P (B) – P (A ∩ B)
Put this in equation *

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P(A U B) = P(A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)

4. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability
that one or the other occur equals the sum of the two
probabilities. i. e.

5.
6.
7. P (ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
In general
Conditional probability and Independency
Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an
effect on the next occurrence of the other event then the
two events are conditional or dependant events.
Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in
a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement
Let A= the event that the first draw is red

B= the event that the second draw is red 

A and B are independent.
2. Draw a ball with out replacement
Let A= the event that the first draw is red
B= the event that the second draw is red 
This is conditional.
Let B= the event that the second draw is red given that
the first draw is red 
Conditional probability of an event

The conditional probability of an event A given that B has

already occurred, denoted is
=
Remark: (1)
(2)

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Examples
1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university
the probability is 0.25 that he/she will get scholarship
and 0.75 that he/she will graduate. If the probability is
0.2 that he/she will get scholarship and will also
graduate. What is the probability that a student who
get a scholarship graduate?
Solution: Let A= the event that a student will get a
scholarship
B= the event that a student will graduate

2. If the probability that a research project will be well

planned is 0.60 and the probability that it will be well
planned and well executed is 0.54, what is the
probability that it will be well executed given that it is
well planned?
Solution; Let A= the event that a research project will be
well
Planned
B= the event that a research project will be
well
Executed

3. A lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non-defective

items from which two items are chosen without
replacement. Events A & B are defined as A = the first
item chosen is defective, B = the second item chosen
is defective

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a. What is the probability that both items are

defective?
b. What is the probability that the second item is
defective?
Solution; Exercise
Note; for any two events A and B the following relation
holds.

Probability of Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if and only if

Here
Example; A box contains four black and six white balls.
What is the probability of getting two black balls in drawing
one after the other under the following conditions?
a. The first ball drawn is not replaced
b. The first ball drawn is replaced
Solution; Let A= first drawn ball is black
B= second drawn is black
Required
a.
b.

Total probability and Bayes’ Theorem

Total probability:-If events B1, B2, …,& Bk constitute a
partition of the sample space S &
p(Bi) ≠ 0 for i = 1,2,…,k, then for any
event A in S, P(A)= ∑ p(Bi)p(A/Bi).
Example 5.21: In a factory, machines A1, A2, A3 manufactures 25%,
35%, 40% of the total output respectively. Out of their products 5%,
4% & 2% are, respectively defective. An item is drawn at random from
the products is found to be defective. What is the probability that
defective item is produced by all machines?
So/n: p(A1)=0.25, p(A2) = 0.35, p(A3) = 0.40, P(D/A1)= 0.05, P(D/A2) =
0.04, P(D/A3) =0.02

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P(D)= ∑ p(Ai)p(D/Ai) = p(A1) P(D/A1) + p(A2) P(D/A2) + p(A3)

P(D/A3)
= (0.25) (0.05) + (0.35) (0.04)+ (0.40)
(0.020) = 0.0345
Bayes’ Theorem:- If B1, B2, …,& Bk are events which make an
exhaustive partition of the sample space S, if A is any event in S, then
the conditional probability of Bi given that A has already occurred is:

Note: the denominator is the total probability

Example 5.22: Based on the above example, what is the probability
that it was manufactured by machine A1?

Solutionn:- = (0.25)(0.05)/0.0345 = 0.3623

Exercise 5
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting?
a) Number 4? b) An odd number? c) Outcome of at least number 4?
d) Number 8?
2. In how many ways can 10 people be seated on a bench if only 4
seats are available?
3. A committee of 5 is formed by drawing lots from 8 boys and 6 girls.
Find the probability that the committee will consist of 2 boys and 3
girls.
4. A box contains 6 red, 4 white and 5 black balls. A man draws 4 balls
from the box at random. Find the probability that among the balls
drawn there is at least one ball of each color.
5. How many four-digit numbers can be formed with the 6 digits
1,2,. . .,6, if
a/ repetitions are allowed b/repetitions are not allowed.
6. The probabilities that A and B solve a given problem independently
are 2/3 and 3/5 respectively. If both of them attempt the problem, find
the probability that the problem will be solved.
7. A bag contains 15 items of which 4 are defective. The items are
selected at random one by one and examined. The ones examined are
not put back. What is the chance that 10 th one examined is the last
defective?

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8. A company has two machines M1 and M2. M1 produces 60% of its

product and M2 produces 40% of its product. M1 produces 5%
defective units and M2 produces 4% defective units. A unit is selected
at random from the whole product.
A Find the probability that it is defective.
B What is the probability that it was manufactured by machine M 2