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Question 1
Let ; “D” represent the population with the Disease, “D’ ” population without the disease
; “T +” represent the positive test
; “T -” represent the negative test
P(T + | D) = 0.9
P(T + | D’) = 0.1
P(T - | D’) = 0.9
P(D) = 0.01
P(D’) = 0.99
P (D | T +) = P(T + | D) × P(D)
P (T +)
But; P (T +) = [P(T + | D) ×P(D)] + [P(T + | D’) ×P(D’)] ; total probability of positive tests
Note; Since the disease is very low in the population, even positive tests could contain some
errors, there while calculating the P (T +) we consider “P(T + | D’) ×P(D’)” too.
P (T +) = (0.9 × 0.01) + (0.1 × 0.99)
P (T +) = 0.108
P (D | T +) = (0.9 × 0.01) / 0.108
= 0.0833333
~ 0.0833 = 8.33%
Thus the probability that a person has the disease is 0.0833.
Question 2
Summary;
Total milk cartons = 10
Sour cartons = 2
Good Cartons = 8
Since cartons are picked at random, the probability of picking the first sour milk carton is as likely
as picking the second one, therefore the probability of selecting a carton of sour milk is computed
using
required probability = chances
sampleSpace
= 2/10
= 0.2
Number 3:
Step 1: At least one of the events occurs just means a union of the events in this case
Hence; P(Q ∪ S) = 1/3
Step 2; The probability of Q occurring but S not occurring
Hence; P(Q ∩ S’) =1/9
But P(Q ∪ S) = P(Q) – P(Q ∩ S) + P(S) ;since P(Q) - P(Q ∩ S) = P(Q ∩ S')
P(Q ∪ S) = P(Q ∩ S’)-P(S)
1/3 = 1/9 –P(S)
P(S) = 1/3 - 1/9
P(S) = 2/9
Number 4:
Each birth is independent and has a probability of 0.5, hence the probability of the
first child being a boy is 0.5
The probability of the second child being a boy is also 0.5 and the third ,the forth and
the fifth too being a boy is 0.5
Hence;
Step 1: Finding the probability of at least one boy
Total probability =1
P (All girls) = 0.55
=0.03125(probability of having all the children as girls)
P (At least one boy) =1-(0.03125)
=0.96875(probability of having at least one boy)
Step 2: Finding the probability of having at least one boy and at least one girl
The possibility of having all the children as girls is = 32
The possibility of having all the children as boys is =32
Every other combination of children is = (32-2)/32
=30/32
=0.9375 ; [ P (A ∩ B) ] where
A represents the event where we have at least one girl and B represents the event
where we have at least one boy.
P ( A | B ) = P(A ∩ B)
P(B)
P ( A | B ) = 0.9375/0.96875
= 0.96774
Number 5:
P(D)=probability of defected
Total number of tv = 240
total defective tv = 15
First picking; P(D) =15/240
now 1 tv has been taken and the total number fo tvs, defective and total drops by one,
The number of Television reduces to 239
total number od defective tvs = 14
Second picking; P(D)=14/239
since picking a television is an independent event, Prob of picking defected after to picks(first and
second) is obtained by multiplying the individual probabilities
(15/240)×(14/239)=0.0036610879
required probability ~ 0.0037 = 0.37%
Number 6:
P(I)=probabability of liking icecream
P(C)=probability of liking cake
P(I ∪ C) = P(I) + P(C) - P(I ∩ C)
500/500 = 382/500 + 362/500 - P(I ∩ C)
P(I ∩ C)=244/500
People that like both= P(I ∩ C)× (total people)
=244/500 ×500
=244
Number 7:
If a box contains 15 balls of colors green G, red R and Black B, and two balls are drawn form the
box without replacement
the probability tree diagram below shows the sample space for both balls being the same color
Probability, P = P(GG) + P(RR) + P(BB)
= ( / )×( / ) + ( / )×(2/14) + (7/15)×(6/14)
5
15
4
14
3
15
2 1 1
= / + / + /
21 35 5
34
= / 105
34
Therefore the probability of picking ball of the same color from the box is /105
Number 8:
In a coin tossing experiment , upon every trial there are only two possible outcomes, T~Tails and
H~Heads, for a game where the the coin is tossed until the first head shows up, there are infinite
possibilities for the number tails to show up first before a head shows up, generate a sample space
as shown below;
S = {H, TH, TTH, TTTH, TTTTH, …}
or
S= {(T)n-1H) | n ϵ{1,2,3, … }}
but the items of the set are countable and unique ; a countably infinite sample space.
therefore the sample space, S is discrete
Number 9:
When you toss a coin multiple times, the outcomes may vary.
The outcomes may be;
All heads
S = {H, H, H, H, …}
All tails
S = {T, T, T, T, …}
Alternating
S = {H, T, H, T, H, …}
Random
S = {T, T, H, T, H, H, …}
Generally
S = {(a1, a2, a3 , … | ai ϵ {H,T} )
The sample space of the above mentioned possibilities is not
discrete instead it is continuous because they are
“uncountably” infinite.
This is similar to listing the numbers between 0 and 1
because they are infinite and one can not list all the decimal
numbers.
Thus: the sample space is CONTINUOUS