ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

We are going to read :

(01) The three stages of demographic transition

(02) India’s population: Size and growth trends

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(03) India’s population: The future

(04) Causes of rapid growth of population
(05) Population and economic development
(06) Remedies for population explosion
(07) India’s population policy
08 Census
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T
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Dependency Ratio
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Malthus , Daton
Divident
11
Demographic
pyg questions
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ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

Third Stage of Demographic Transition

In the third stage of demographic transition, the birth rate declines

significantly and thus the rate of population growth remains low. A
country can hope to overcome the problem of population explosion if the
process of industrialisation accompanied by urbanisation is fast and
education becomes widespread. Only in this situation, birth rate shows a
tendency to fall.

Thus, both social and economic factors deter a large number of people
from having many children, and in course of time, the birth rate declines
from about 35–40 per thousand to about 15–20 per thousand.

INDIA’S POPULATION

India is now the world’s largest country by population. This has

happened sooner than expected as China’s population appears to have
begun shrinking in advance of [Link]’s average age is around
28, compared to 38 in China or 47 in Germany.

Today, India’s population density of 477 people per square kilometre is

around eight times higher than the global population density.

Population growth rate was 0.18 in 1901, 1.25 in 1951, 2.22 in 1971, 1.97 in
2001, 1.44 in 2022.

Decline in Fertility Rate : The belief that India is likely to enter the third
stage of demographic transition soon is further - strengthened by the fact
that the fertility rate in India has been declining over the years. It was
0
4.05 in 1990 and fell to 2.05
- -
per woman--
in 2020, which is below
the replacement rate of 2.1 as prescribed by the United Nations.

&
ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

Nevertheless, India’s fertility rate of 2.05 is a cause of optimism and

kindles the hope that the third stage of demographic transition is not far
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off.
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Birth and Death Rates : Over the period 1951 to 2020, there was
only some decline in the birth rate, while the death rate declined
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significantly. In the year

- -
2020, the death rate was just 6.0 per
thousand, as against 27.4 per thousand in 1950–[Link] birth and
>
death rates were almost equal between 1901 and 1921, and this
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explains why population did not rise in this period.

As far as regional trends are concerned, the Southern States have done
much better than Northern States. This is clear from the fact that birth
rates in them are generally lower than birth rates in the Northern States
and similar trends are observed with respect to death rates as well. For
example, birth rates in 2020 in Kerala and Tamil Nadu were 13.2 and
13.8 while they were 23.5 and 25.1 in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh
[Link]’s Population Growth and Selected Demographic
Indicators
• India’s population at end-2022: 141.7 crore
• Annual growth rate during 2011–22: 1.58 per cent
• Crude birth rate per 1,000 persons (2020): 19.5
• Crude death rate per 1,000 persons (2020): 6.0
• Total fertility rate per woman (2020): 2.05
• Maternal mortality rate per 1 lakh live births (2017): 145
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• Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births (2020): 28

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• Couple protection rate: 54.8

• Life expectancy at birth (in years) (2014–18):
Male: 69.4
◦-
Female: 70.7
◦-

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ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

Causes of the Rapid Growth of Population

There are only three possible causes of an increase in the population of a

country:
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=
(i) a high birth rate - In India : Elimination of famines, Control of
epidemics and decline in the incidence of malaria and tuberculosis
(ii) a relatively lower death rate, and
(iii) immigration.
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In India, the population has rapidly increased due to the first two
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reasons leading to population [Link]’s population has not
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--
increased much due to immigration.

(i) Steady Decline in the Mortality Rate over the Years

Mortality rate declined in India from 27.4 per 1,000 persons in

1950–51 to 6.0 per 1,000 persons in 2020.
Factors Leading to Decline in Mortality Rate

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• Control of epidemics such as cholera and smallpox, Decline in
incidence of malaria and tuberculosis, Improved supply of drinking
water, Improved sanitation and hygiene, Expansion of education
and increased literacy, Expanded medical facilities such as
immunisation against preventable diseases
• (ii) Birth Rate Continues to be Much Higher than
Mortality Rate
Birth rate was 39.9 per 1,000 persons in 1950–51 and 19.5 per
1,000 persons in 2020.
T

[
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Economic Factors Causing the High Birth Rate - Predominance of

agriculture, Slow immunisation process, Widespread poverty

Social Factors Leading to High Birth Rate:

Near universality of marriage, Lower age at the time of marriage,

Religious and social superstitions, Joint family system, Lack of
education.
 ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

The Population Growth and Economic Development

Many of the real problems of population arise not due to its overall size,
but from its concentration in urban areas (especially in large
metropolitan areas) as a result of accelerated rural–urban migration.
The swelling population of large urban areas leads to the large-scale
emergence of slums where conditions of living are, to say the least,
inhuman.A more rational and more efficient spatial distribution of
national population thus becomes an alternative, in some countries, to
the slow-down of overall population growth.

Remedies for Population Explosion : To deal with the existing

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population problem, broadly speaking, three-fold measures would be
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required:
(1) Economic measure : Expansion of the industrial sector, Creation of
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employment opportunities in urban areas, Equitable distribution of
income and removal of poverty.

(2) Social measures: . Contribution of education in bringing down the

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birth rate is significant, Improving the status of women,

(3) The Family Planning Programme : Public information programme,

Incentives and disincentives, Family Planning centre.

The Family Planning Programme was initiated in India in 1952.

However, it was during the Fourth Five Year Plan that the
implementation of this programme was given utmost importance. The
main objective of the Family Planning Programme was to reduce
population growth in India. The Fourth Five Year Plan aimed to achieve
a target of 60% sterilization coverage of the eligible couples in the age
group of 15-44 [Link] Policy of the Government of India
xso
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POPULATION POLICY OF GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
F
• In India, the government has not relied on economic and social
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measures to control the size of population. Its entire reliance is on

family-planning programme.
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 • Pravin Visaria, a INDIAN
noted Indian demographer, has pertinently
ECOSTUDY ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026
argued that, but for family planning programme, the rate of growth
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•
• of India’s population could have risen sharply, as has happened in
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several countries of Africa.
• In the earlier phase of economic planning, the government felt the
need for family planning programme only after the publication of
1961 Census results which showed a higher rate of population
growth than anticipated.
• The government in the earlier phase pursued an ad hoc policy
under which first it pursued clinical approach, then extension
approach and lastly the cafeteria approach.
• Since this policy did not show impressive results, the government
decided to pursue a ‘bold national population policy’ in 1976.
• Under this ‘bold policy’, the government pursued questionable
measures particularly involving government departments and
motivating citizens to adopt responsible reproductive behaviour.
• In an authoritarian political system, the corrupt administrative
machinery misused its powers during the emergency that was
proclaimed by the government.
• The use of coercive methods discredited the entire family planning
programme and the experiment of the government to pursue the
so-called bold measures for lowering down the birth rate in a
relatively short period ended in a fiasco.
• Restricting population growth was one of the main objectives of the
Eighth Plan.
• Under the Eighth Plan for population control there was stress on
decentralised planning and implementation.
• The National Population Policy of 2000 outlined immediate,
medium-term and long-term objectives.
• The immediate objective of this policy was to meet needs of health
infrastructure and health personnel.
 • The medium-term objective was toNOTES
lower downCUET
fertility
PG rate to the
ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026
replacement level by 2010.
• The long-term objective is to achieve stable population by 2045.

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G =>
Census 2011 is the 15th census undertaken in India since 1872 and the
4
seventh after the country attained Independence.

o
The first complete census of an Indian city was conducted in 1830 by
G
Henry Walter in Dacca (now Dhaka).
The second Census was conducted in 1836-37 by Fort St. George
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The #first systematic, though-

non-synchronous, population census
-e
conducted throughout the country was between 1865 and 1872 during
the reign of Governor-General Lord Mayo. in one
night
- - we a
The first synchronous census was done in 1881 by W.C. Plowden. Since
-

-
then, decennial censuses have been conducted without [Link]
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-

- - 00
de facto Method: Censuses from 1881 up to, and including, 1931were
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conducted using a synchronous de facto method. It means that the

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census was conducted throughout the country on a single night.

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 ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

g
%
Highlights of Census 2011
1. Population: As per Census 2011, the total population of India at 0.00
hours of
1st March 2011 is 1210.6 million.
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• Rural population: 833.5 mn

• Urban population: 377.1 mn
larges rural population : UP 155.3mn [ 18.68% of India rural
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population]
• Highest urban population: Maharashtra 50.8 mn [13.5% of India's
urban population]

G
Growth Rate: Population growth rate of India is 17.7%
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• Rural PGR:
- 12.3%

-• Urban PGR: 31.8%

• Highest decadal growth rate in rural population: Meghalaya
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(27.2%)
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 ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

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• Highest decadal growth rate in urban population: Daman & Dui
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• Density of Population: 382 persons per sq. km. for India

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• Most densely populated [UTs] : Delhi (11320), Chandigarh (9258)

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• Most densely populated [States] : Bihar (1106)
• Minimum densely populated [State]: Arunachal Pradesh
X
• Proportion of Population: In percentage terms, the rural population
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constitutes 68.8% and urban population 31.2% of India's population.
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There has -

O
been a rise of 3.4% in the proportion of urban population between 2001
to 2011.
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• Largest proportion of rural population: Himachal Pradesh (90%)

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• Largest proportion of urban population: Delhi (97.5%)
• Sex Ratio (number of females per 1,000 males): Census 2001 indicated
Increase 933, which raised to 943 in Census 2011. -
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• Child Sex Ratio (0-6
decrease -
years): Fall in CSR from 927 to 919 during
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2001-11 - TSK
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• Among States, Goa is now the most urbanised State with 62.2 percent
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urban population, a significant increase -
since 2001 when urban
population of Goa was 49.8%.Among major states, Tamil Nadu
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continues to be the most urbanized state with 48.4 percent of the

population living in urban areas followed now by Kerala (47.7 per cent)
upstaging Maharashtra (45.2 percent).
What is Demographic Dividend?

“The demographic dividend is defined as a rise in the rate of economic

growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. This
phenomenon occurs with a falling birth rate and the consequent shift in
the age structure of the population towards the adult working
-
-
[Link] dividend is also known as demographic bonus or
demographic window. -

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 ECOSTUDY INDIAN ECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

According to the Technical Group on Population Projections, out of total

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population of 102.9 crore in 2001, 61.9 crore (i.e., 60.2 per cent) people
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were in the age-group 15–65 [Link] number is likely to increase to

90.8 crore (i.e., 67.8 per cent of total population) by 2021 and further to
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95.7 crore (i.e., 68.4 per cent of total population) by 2026. In other
--
words, India will have a large working population.
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Dependency
- is defined as the percentage of the dependent population
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(0–14 andF -60 and above age groups) divided by the working age
population (15–59 age groups). The dependency ratio was more than 0.9

=
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in 1971. It fell to 0.79 in 1991, 0.75 in 2001 and 0.65 in 2011.

Sosabre
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Low dependency ratio gives India comparative advantage and

progressively lowering dependency ratio will result in improving our
[Link] Dependency States: Bihar, for instance, has a high
dependency ratio (77.4 in 2018).Low Dependency States: Sikkim had the
lowest (36.3 in 2018).

Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) presented his theory in An Essay on

the Principle of Population (1798).

It’s based on two central postulates: Core Propositions

Food production grows at an arithmetic rate (1, 2, 3, 4, 5…).
Population, if unchecked, grows at a geometric rate (1, 2, 4, 8, 16…).
Therefore, population tends to outstrip the means of subsistence,
leading to poverty, famine, and misery.

Dalton’s theory deals with the concept of optimum population — the

population size that maximizes per capita economic welfare or income.
He defined it in relation to resources and technology at a given time.

Formula for maladjustment: M = A - O / O

Where:
O = optimum population
=
A = Actual Population

Om
S
M = Degree of maladjustment

OG
If A = O , M = O - Optimum population
-
transitiage
Stagez -

A= 0 - o - o
Oanographic Dividenc
- -

Ratio
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Previous Year Questions

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ECOSTUDY*CO - INDIAN
underECONOMY NOTES CUET PG | IIT JAM | JAMIA 2026

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UGC NET 2025
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UPPCS 2019

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The Dependency Ratio in India is declining because :
1. Population of 0-14 years is relatively high
2. Population of 60 years and above is relatively high
3. Population of 15-59 years is relatively high
4. Population of 0-14 years and 60 years and above together are

populadt ependency
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relatively high

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