ES – 71

ENGINEERING DATA
ANALYSIS

ENGR. MARY CRIS L. AYING-TAMPOS

INSTRUCTOR
 COURSE OUTLINE

3. Discrete Probability Distribution

3.1 Random Variables and their Probability Distribution
3.2 Cumulative Distribution Functions
3.3 Expected Values of Random Variables
3.4 Binomial Distribution
3.5 Poisson Distribution
Grading System
Attendance : 5%
Quizzes/Participation : 15%
Prelim Exam : 20%
Midterm Exam : 20%
Prefinal Exam : 20%
Final Exam : 20%
100%

Passing Rate : 50%

 CHAPTER 3

DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
 DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

A discrete distribution describes the probability of occurrence of

each value of a discrete random variable. A discrete random variable is a
random variable that has countable values, such as a list of non-negative
integers.
With a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the
discrete random variable can be associated with a non-zero probability.
Thus, a discrete probability distribution is often presented in tabular form.
 3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Random Variables
A random variable x represents a numerical value associated with each outcome
of a probability distribution. It is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to
chance.
A random variable’s possible values might represent the possible outcomes of a
yet-to-be-performed experiment, or the possible outcomes of a past experiment whose
already-existing value is uncertain (for example, as a result of incomplete information or
imprecise measurements).
Random variables can be classified as either discrete (that is, taking any of a
specified list of exact values) or as continuous (taking any numerical value in an interval or
collection of intervals).
The mathematical function describing the possible values of a random variable
and their associated probabilities is known as a probability distribution.
 • Discrete Random Variables
A random variable is discrete if it has a finite or countable
number of possible outcomes that can be listed.
Their probability distribution is given by a probability mass
function which directly maps each value of a random variable to a
probability.
A random variable is continuous if it has an uncountable number
or possible outcomes.
➢ The probabilities 𝑝𝑖 must satisfy
two requirements: every probability
𝑝𝑖 is a number between 0 and 1, and
the sum of all the possibilities is 1.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Example:
Decide if the random variable x is a discrete or continuous.

a) The distance your car travels on a tank of gas

The distance your car travels is a continuous random
variable because it is a measurement that cannot be counted. (All
measurements are continuous random variable.)
b) The number of students in a statistics class
The number of students is a discrete random variable
because it can be counted.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Discrete Probability Distribution
A discrete probability distribution lists each possible value the random
variable can assume, together with its probability. A probability
distribution must satisfy the following conditions.

In Words In Symbols

1. The probability of each value of the 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝑥) ≤ 1

discrete random variable is between
0 and 1, inclusive.

2. The sum of all the probabilities is 1. ෍𝑃 𝑥 = 1

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables
Probability distributions for discrete random variables can be displayed as
a formula, in a table, or in a graph. The probability distribution of a discrete random
variable x lists the values and their probabilities, where value 𝑥1 has probability 𝑝1 ,
value 𝑥2 has probability 𝑝2 , and so on.
Examples of discrete random variables include:
The number of eggs that a hen lays in a given day (it can’t be 2.3)
The number of students that come to class on a given day
The number of people in line at Jollibee’s on a given day and time
For example, suppose that xx is a random variable that represents the number of
people waiting at the line at a fast-food restaurant and it happens to only take the
values 2, 3, or 5 with probabilities 2/10, 3/10, and 5/10 respectively. This can be
𝑥
expressed through the function 𝑓 𝑥 = , 𝑥 = 2, 3, 5. Or through a table.
10

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Probability Function f(x) ≥ 0

Probability Histogram

This histogram displays the The formula, table, and

probabilities of each of the three probability histogram satisfy the
discrete random variables. necessary conditions of discrete
probability distributions.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Probability Mass Function

Sometimes, the discrete

probability distribution is referred
to as the probability mass
function (pmf). The probability
mass function has the same
purpose as the probability
The only difference is how it histogram, and displays specific
looks graphically. probabilities for each discrete
random variable.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Discrete Probability Distribution

This table shows the values of the discrete random variable can
take on and their corresponding probabilities.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

 CONSTRUCTING A DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Guidelines:
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible outcomes 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 .
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by dividing its frequency by the
sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1 and that sum is 1.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Example 1:
The spinner below is divided into two sections. The probability of landing on the 1 is
0.25. The probability of landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be the number the spinner
lands on. Construct a probability distribution for the random variable x.

Each probability is
between 0 and 1.

The sum of the probabilities is 1.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Example 2:
The spinner below is spun two times. The probability of landing on the 1 is 0.25. The
probability of landing on the 2 is 0.75. Let x be the sum of the two spins. Construct a
probability distribution for the random variable x.

The possible sums are 2, 3, and 4.

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)

P(sum of 2) = 0.25 x 0.25 = 0.0625

“and”
Spin a 1 on the Spin a 1 on the
first spin. second spin.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Example 2 continued:

P(sum of 3) = 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.1875

“and”
Spin a 1 on the Spin a 2 on the
first spin. second spin.
“or”

P(sum of 3) = 0.75 x 0.25 = 0.1875

“and”
0.375 Spin a 2 on the Spin a 1 on the
first spin. second spin.
0.1875 + 0.1875

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Example 2 continued:

P(sum of 4) = 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.5625

“and”
Spin a 2 on the Spin a 2 on the
first spin. second spin.

Each probability is between 0 and

1, and the sum of the probabilities
is 1.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

 Graphing a Discrete Probability Distribution

Example 1:

Graph the following probability distribution using a histogram.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Assignment:
A shipment of 20 similar laptop computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are
defective. If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the
probability distribution for the number of defectives and graph the probability
distribution using a histogram.

3.1 RANDOM VARIABLES AND THEIR PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

3.2 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

All random variables (discrete and continuous) have a cumulative distribution.

It is a function giving the probability that the random variable X is less than or
equal to x, for every value x.
For discrete random variable, the cumulative distribution function is found by
summing up the probabilities
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 = σ𝑡≤𝑥 𝑓 𝑡 , for −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞

The cumulative distribution function for continuous random variables is just a

straightforward extension of that of the discrete case.
The cumulative distribution function (“c.d.f.”) of a continuous random
variable X is defined as:
𝑥
𝐹 𝑥 = ‫׬‬−∞ 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡, for −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
Example 1:

Suppose that a day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do not
conform to customer requirements. Two parts are selected at random, without
replacement, from the batch. Let the random variable X equal the number of
nonconforming parts in the sample. What is the cumulative distribution function of X?
Solution:
800 799
𝑃 𝑋=0 = ∙ = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟖𝟔 𝐹 0 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 0 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟖𝟔
850 849

800 50 50 800
𝑃 𝑋=1 = ∙ + ∙ = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝐹 1 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 0.886 + 0.111 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟕
850 849 850 849

50 49
𝑃 𝑋=2 = ∙ = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑 𝐹 2 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 2 = 0.997 + 0.003 = 𝟏
850 849

0 𝑥<0
0.886 0 ≤ 𝑥 < 1
𝑓 𝑥
0.997 1 ≤ 𝑥 < 2
1 𝑥≤2
Graph of the cumulative distribution function

3.2 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

3.3 EXPECTED VALUES OF RANDOM VARIABLES

The expected value of a random variables is the weighted average of all

possible values that this random variable can take on. The weights used in
computing this average are probabilities in the case of a discrete random
variable.

How to Calculate Expected Value

Suppose random variable X can take value 𝑥1 with probability 𝑝1 , value 𝑥2 with
probability 𝑝2 , and so on, up to value 𝑥𝑖 with probability 𝑝𝑖 . Then the
expectation value of a random variable XX is defined as
𝐸 𝑋 = 𝑥1 𝑝1 + 𝑥2 𝑝2 + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑖 𝑝𝑖

𝐸 𝑋 = ෍ 𝑥𝑖 𝑝𝑖
Example:
Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a six-sided die. The possible values for
X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all equally likely (each having the probability of 1/6).

𝐸 𝑋 = 𝑥1 𝑝1 + 𝑥2 𝑝2 + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑖 𝑝𝑖

1 1 1 1 1 1
𝐸 𝑋 =1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6
6 6 6 6 6 6

𝐸 𝑋 = 𝟑. 𝟓

3.3 EXPECTED VALUES OF RANDOM VARIABLES

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Experiment
A binomial experiment is a statistical experiment that has the
following properties:
• The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes.
• The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on every
trial.
• The trials are independent.
Example:
You flip a coin 2 times and count the number of times the coin lands on
heads.

This is a binomial experiment because:

1. The experiment consists of repeated trials. We flip a coin 2 times.
2. Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes – heads or tails.
3. The probability of success is constant – 0.5 on every trial.
4. The trials are independent; that is, getting heads on one trial does
not affect whether we get heads on other trials.

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

The following notation is helpful, when we talk about binomial probability.

• x: The number of successes that result from the binomial experiment.

• n: The number of trials in the binomial experiment.
• P: The probability of success on an individual trial.
• Q: The probability of failure on an individual trial. (This is equal to 1 − 𝑃.)
• n!: The factorial of n (also known as n factorial).
• b(x; n, P): Binomial probability – the probability that an n-trial binomial
experiment results in exactly x successes, when the probability of success
on an individual trial is P.
• 𝑛𝐶𝑟 : The number of combinations on n things, taken r at a time.

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Distribution
A binomial random variable is the number of successes x in n repeated
trials of a binomial experiment. The probability distribution of a binomial random
variable is called a binomial distribution.
Binomial distribution of flipping a coin two times and resulting to two heads.

Number of Probability
Properties of binomial distribution:
Heads • The mean of the distribution 𝜇𝑥 is equal
to 𝑛 ∗ 𝑃.
0 0.25
• The variance (𝜎𝑥2 ) is 𝑛 ∗ 𝑃 ∗ 1 − 𝑃 .
1 0.50 • The standard deviation 𝜎𝑥 is
2 0.25 𝑛∗𝑃∗ 1−𝑃

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Formula and Binomial Probability

The binomial probability refers to the probability that a

binomial experiment results in exactly x successes.
Binomial Formula. Suppose a binomial experiment consists of n
trials and results in x successes. If the probability of success on an
individual trial is P, then the binomial probability is:

𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ∗ 𝑃 𝑥 ∗ (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑥
𝑛!
Or 𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑥 (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑥
𝑥! 𝑛−𝑥 !

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Example 1:

Suppose a die is tossed 5 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 2

fours?

Solution:
𝑛 = 5, 𝑥 = 2, 𝑃 = 1/6 = 0.167

𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ∗ 𝑃 𝑥 ∗ (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑥
𝑏 2; 5, 0.167 = 5𝐶2 ∗ 0.1672 ∗ (1 − 0.167)5−2
𝑏 2; 5, 0.167 = (5𝐶2)(0.167)2 (0.833)3
𝒃 𝟐; 𝟓, 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟕 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟏

Or
𝑛!
𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑥 (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑥
𝑥! 𝑛 − 𝑥 !
5!
𝑏 2; 5,0.167 = 0.167 2 (1 − 0.167)5−2 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟏
2! 5 − 2 !

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Cumulative Binomial Probability
A cumulative binomial probability refers to the probability that the
binomial random variable falls within a specified range (e.g., is greater than
or equal to a stated lower limit and less than or equal to a stated upper limit).
For example, we might be interested in the cumulative binomial probability of
obtaining 45 or fewer heads in 100 tosses of a coin. This would be the sum
of all these individual binomial probabilities.

𝑏 𝑥 ≤ 45; 100, 0.5 =

𝑏 𝑥 = 0; 100, 0.5 + 𝑏 𝑥 = 1; 100, 0.5 + ⋯ + 𝑏 𝑥 = 45; 100, 0.5

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Example 1: What is the probability of obtaining 45 or fewer heads in 100 tosses of a coin?

Solution:
𝑏 𝑥 ≤ 45; 100, 0.5 = 𝑏 𝑥 = 0; 100, 0.5 + 𝑏 𝑥 = 1; 100, 0.5 + ⋯ + 𝑏 𝑥 = 45; 100, 0.5

𝑏 𝑥; 𝑛, 𝑃 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ∗ 𝑃 𝑥 ∗ (1 − 𝑃)𝑛−𝑥
𝑏 𝑥 ≤ 45; 100, 0.5 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟖𝟒

Example 2: The probability that a student is accepted to a prestigious college is 0.3. If 5 students
from the same school apply, what is the probability that at most 2 are accepted?

Solution:
𝑏 𝑥 ≤ 2; 5, 0.3 = 𝑏 𝑥 = 0; 5, 0.3 + 𝑏 𝑥 = 1; 5, 0.3 + ⋯ + 𝑏 𝑥 = 2; 5, 0.3

𝑏 𝑥 ≤ 2; 5, 0.3 = 0.16807 + 0.36015 + 0.3087

𝑏 𝑥 ≤ 2; 5, 0.3 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟑𝟔𝟗2

3.4 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

 3.5 THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

A Poisson Distribution is the probability distribution that results from a

Poisson experiment.
A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:
• The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or
failures.
• The average number of successes (𝜇) that occurs in a specified region is
known.
• The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the region.
• The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is virtually
zero.
Specified Region: a length, an area, a volume, a period of time, etc.
The following notation is helpful, when we talk about Poisson
Distribution.

• e: A constant equal to approximately 2.71828

• 𝜇: The mean number of successes that occur in a specified
region.
• x: The actual number of successes that occur in a specified
region.
• 𝑃(𝑥; 𝜇): The Poisson probability that exactly x successes
occur in a Poisson experiment, when the mean number of
successes is 𝜇.

3.5 THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Poisson Distribution
A Poisson random variable is the number of successes that result from a
Poisson experiment. The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable is
called a Poisson distribution.

Poisson Formula: Suppose we conduct a Poisson experiment, in which the

average number of successes within a given region is 𝜇. Then, the Poisson
probability is:
𝒆−𝝁 𝝁𝒙
𝑷 𝒙; 𝝁 =
𝒙!
where 𝑥 is the actual number of successes that result from the experiment, and 𝑒 is
approximately equal to 2.71828.

The Poisson distribution has the following properties:

• The mean of the distribution is equal to 𝜇.
• The variance is also equal to 𝜇.

3.5 THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Example 1:
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Realty company is 2 homes per
day. What is the probability that exactly 3 homes will be sold tomorrow?

Solution:
This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:
• 𝜇 = 2 ; since 2 homes are sold per day, on average.
• 𝑥 = 3 ; since we want to find the likelihood that 3 homes will be sold tomorrow.
𝑒 −𝜇 𝜇 𝑥
𝑃 𝑥; 𝜇 =
𝑥!

𝑒 −2 23
𝑃 3; 2 = = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟖𝟎
3!

3.5 THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Cumulative Poisson Probability
A cumulative Poisson probability refers to the probability that the Poisson
random variable is greater than some specified lower limit and less than some
specified upper limit.
Example:
Suppose the average number of lions seen on 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next 1-day safari?
Solution:
This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:
𝜇 = 5 ; since 5 lions are seen per safari, on average.

𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 𝑜𝑟 3; since we want to find the likelihood that tourists will see fewer than 4
lions; that is we want the probability that they will see 0, 1, 2, or 3 lions.

𝑒 = 2.71828

3.5 THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Example:
Suppose the average number of lions seen on 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next 1-day safari?
Solution:
𝜇=5 𝑥 = 0, 1, 2, 3 𝑒 = 2.71828
𝑒 −5 50 𝑒 −5 52
𝑃 0; 5 = = 0.0067 𝑃 2; 5 = = 0.0842
0! 2!

𝑒 −5 51 𝑒 −5 53
𝑃 1; 5 = = 0.0337 𝑃 3; 5 = = 0.1404
1! 3!

𝑃 𝑥 < 4; 5 = 0.0067 + 0.0337 + 0.0842 + 0.1404 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟔𝟓𝟎

3.5 THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION