0% found this document useful (0 votes)
30 views28 pages

Reset and Rebound: New Zealand - October 2025

New Zealand's commercial and industrial property market is experiencing a measured recovery, with transaction values increasing to NZ$4.12 billion in 2024, reflecting growing market confidence. The recovery is supported by macroeconomic improvements, including moderating inflation and reduced interest rates, alongside a notable increase in offshore investment interest. Key investment hotspots include Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch, each showing distinctive trends but overall positive activity in transactions.

Uploaded by

assime
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
30 views28 pages

Reset and Rebound: New Zealand - October 2025

New Zealand's commercial and industrial property market is experiencing a measured recovery, with transaction values increasing to NZ$4.12 billion in 2024, reflecting growing market confidence. The recovery is supported by macroeconomic improvements, including moderating inflation and reduced interest rates, alongside a notable increase in offshore investment interest. Key investment hotspots include Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch, each showing distinctive trends but overall positive activity in transactions.

Uploaded by

assime
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Research

New Zealand | October 2025

[Link]

Reset and Rebound


Perspectives on navigating New Zealand’s capital markets
Reset and Rebound

Contents

Navigating the recovery 3

Back on track: Market momentum building 5

Domestic strength meets offshore appetite 8

The catalysts: What’s powering the


10
recovery in transactions?

Regional spotlights: NZ’s key


12
investment hotspots

Sector strength: What’s driving demand? 14

Trans-Tasman case study: Australia and


16
New Zealand

Looking ahead: Opportunities on


21
the horizon

Major recent sales 23

2
Reset and Rebound

01 New Zealand’s commercial and industrial property


market has navigated a measured recovery
throughout 2024 and into 2025, transitioning

Navigating from the cyclical challenges of 2023 towards a


more stable investment environment. Transaction

the recovery values reached NZ$4.12 billion in 2024, a 5.4%


increase from the previous year. 2025 transactions
have built on this increasing activity reflecting a
gradual rebuilding of market confidence.

The recovery has been characterised by several


key trends reshaping the investment landscape.
Offshore capital has become increasingly
prominent, with international investors focusing
on larger, higher-quality assets whilst local
investors have maintained essential market
liquidity through more numerous but smaller
transactions. This shift has created a two-tier
market dynamic, where premium assets

3
Reset and Rebound

command strong interest whilst secondary and repositioning potential. Retail has surprised
properties face a more selective buyer appetite. many with nearly NZ$946.3 million in activity,
particularly in non-discretionary and large
Macroeconomic improvements have provided format categories.
crucial support, with inflation moderating from
its 7.2% peak in 2022 to below 4% in 2024, and Geographically, Auckland continues to dominate
the Reserve Bank reducing the OCR from 5.5% transaction volumes, though Wellington and
to 2.5%. The RBNZ is signalling further cuts Christchurch are showing investor interest,
ahead, as well as a review into capital allocation particularly for assets offering value-add
requirements. Nevertheless, the recovery opportunities or defensive income characteristics.
trajectory remains measured, with buyers and The first half of 2025 has maintained this
sellers still navigating pricing expectations momentum with an estimated NZ$1.44 billion
as interest rates stabilise and economic in transactions, suggesting the market has
uncertainty diminishes. established a more sustainable foundation for
continued growth, albeit from a recalibrated base
The market recovery has demonstrated that reflects new economic realities.
encouraging breadth across asset classes,
though each sector faces distinct challenges and Looking ahead, the combination of improving
opportunities. Industrial property has maintained macroeconomic conditions, persistent structural
its resilience with NZ$2.20 billion in transactions, supply constraints, and diversified capital
benefiting from structural supply constraints and flows positions New Zealand’s commercial and
logistics demand. The office sector has shown industrial property market for robust performance
signs of stabilisation at NZ$963.8 million in over the medium term, with transaction values
transactions, with investors increasingly focused potentially approaching pre-2023 cyclical
on high-quality assets with strong ESG credentials levels by late 2026.

4
Reset and Rebound

02 The first half of 2025 has seen sales momentum


build further in the New Zealand commercial and
industrial property market after experiencing a

Back on track welcome upturn in 2024 that points to 2023 as the


latest cyclical low. The total transaction value for
2024 climbed to NZ$4.12 billion, a 5.4% increase
Market momentum building
from 2023’s NZ$3.91 billion. This uplift was
supported by a 13.2% rise in sales volume,
with the market recording approximately 231
transactions compared to 204 in the prior year.
While data for the first half of 2025 is still to be
finalised, there was an estimated NZ$1.44 billion
in transactions recorded, which is likely to be
higher upon the conclusion of final data records.
This performance signifies a shift in market
sentiment, driven by greater clarity in the
medium-term domestic economic outlook,
reductions in the official cash rate and interest
rates, and recognition of long-term drivers

5
Reset and Rebound

supporting property value growth, enabling approximately NZ$2.5 billion in sales in 2024. In
a convergence of vendor and purchaser 2025, there have been a number of substantial
pricing expectations. transactions, including the NZ$120 million sale
of the Wiri Woolstore in Dalgety Drive to an
While transaction levels remain below the last offshore party, enabling the former private owner
cyclical peak of NZ$7.08 billion seen in 2021, the to recycle the capital into Goodman Property
2025 and 2024 recovery demonstrates a healthy Trust’s NZPost premises in North Shore, Auckland,
base for continued value and volume growth and which was sold for NZ$89 million. Brookfield
a more sustainable market dynamic. Asset Management’s latest purchase in the New
Zealand market and joint venture collaboration
When analysing the growth between 2023 and with Waikato Tainui at Ruakura Superhub as well
2024, total transaction volumes grew by +13.2%, as fund manager Mercer and Goodman
while total values increased by +5.4%, reflecting Group’s acquisition of 27.7% of Highbrook
increased market activity and deal flow. This Business Park highlight close to NZ$1 billion of
has flowed into 2025 with investors deploying transactions in a handful of deals in early 2025.
capital with greater conviction, targeting larger
and higher-quality assets as market conditions The Office sector gathered investment momentum
have stabilised. throughout 2024, with close to NZ$1 billion in
transactions recorded, reflecting strategic buyer
An analysis of capital flows by asset class in interest in well-positioned office assets. The recent
2025 reveals a broader-based recovery. In the sale of four interconnected premises at 22, 24 and
retail sector, one of the most significant 26 Durham St West and 19 Victoria St West for
transactions underpinning this momentum approximately NZ$104 million to Quattro Group
was the $161 million JLL-brokered sale of highlights the add-value options under
Auckland’s Manukau Supa Centa in early 2025, consideration for the sector.
marking the largest retail transaction in nearly
a decade. There have also been a number of Importantly, the distribution of capital across
essential services and non-discretionary retail multiple sectors highlights a broad market
property transactions, predominantly of large recovery, not reliant on a single asset class
format retail properties across the country. performance, rather a strategic assessment of
each property’s underlying attributes and future
The Industrial sector maintained its position growth potential.
as the market’s bedrock, accounting for

6
Reset and Rebound

Commercial property sales: Volume and value – NZD5m or more


Year Total number of sales Total value of sales
2015 178 $3,668,848,537
2016 176 $4,167,487,248
2017 211 $3,875,558,628
2018 270 $4,976,777,872
2019 270 $5,304,136,242
2020 368 $6,969,672,396
2021 428 $7,075,500,147
2022 252 $4,922,813,569
2023 204 $3,908,303,721
2024 231 $4,116,880,857
1H2025 81 $1,449,741,000
Source: JLL Research

Annual commercial property transaction value and volume – NZD5m or more


Value of transactions, (NZD, billions) Volume of transactions
$10.0 450
$9.0 400
$8.0 350
$7.0
300
$6.0
250
$5.0
200
$4.0
150
$3.0
$2.0 100

$1.0 50

$0.0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1H25

Office Retail Industrial 2025 Forecast Transaction volume


Source: JLL Research

7
Reset and Rebound

03 Analysis of purchases by capital source reveals


clear investment behaviours across buyer
segments. Local investors maintained their

Domestic dominant position in capital distribution during


2024, accounting for NZ$3.05 billion (82%) of

strength meets total transaction value, while offshore investment


contributed NZ$673.4million (18%). In the first
half of 2025, this trend has continued with

offshore appetite local investors accounting for NZ$1.20 billion


(83%) while offshore investors contributed
NZ$249.7 million (17%).

Offshore investors are focused on assets of


high value, quality, scale, and growth potential.
This is perhaps best illustrated from 2024 data
with the average purchase value by offshore
parties at almost double the average deal size of
local purchasers.

8
Reset and Rebound

Australia remains the dominant source of offshore


capital for New Zealand, followed by Singapore
and the United States. Less stringent Overseas
Investment Office (OIO) restrictions for Australian
and Singaporean investors have aided this trend.
Currency fluctuations have played a meaningful
role, with the relatively stronger U.S. and
Singaporean dollar enhancing purchasing power
for these investors.

Meanwhile, local investors demonstrated


sustained confidence with 203 transactions in
2024, providing the market with essential liquidity
and turnover activity. In 2025, a similar pattern is
emerging, however, there has been a noticeable
uplift in the proportion of offshore purchasing
activity in New Zealand, across all asset classes,
including industrial land and buildings. By the
end of 2025, we estimate that the proportion of
offshore versus onshore purchasing activity will be
30% to 70%, respectively.

This increasingly diverse market composition,


comprising a growing number of offshore
purchasers with strong local investment,
establishes positive market dynamics that bode
well for further transactional activity as the
broader economic and financial market recovers.

9
Reset and Rebound

04 A series of interconnected macroeconomic factors,


led by moderating inflation and falling interest
rates, are driving the recovery in commercial and

The catalysts industrial transactions and increasing the depth of


capital sources. This will continue to spur activity
for the remainder of 2025 and beyond.
What’s powering the recovery
in transactions?
Inflation has moderated significantly from its
7.2% peak in 2022 to below 4% in 2024, largely
in response to the Reserve Bank’s monetary
policy interventions.

To combat high inflation, the Reserve Bank


raised the OCR to a peak of 5.5% in mid-2023.
The OCR then stabilised throughout 2024 as
inflation pressures eased, and interest rates began
decreasing in early 2025. The OCR now stands
at 2.5%, with a projected decrease potentially
to 2.25% by year-end. This downward trajectory

10
Reset and Rebound

has provided lending and investors with greater The office market presents a more nuanced
underwriting certainty, encouraging market picture, with prime-grade assets maintaining
re-entry. Banks are now showing an increased relatively low vacancy rates despite broader
willingness to finance well-positioned commercial market challenges. High-quality buildings with
assets with strong tenant covenants. strong ESG credentials and modern amenities
continue to attract and retain tenants, while
In addition to these macroeconomic factors, secondary assets with repositioning potential offer
structural supply-demand imbalances across compelling value-add opportunities for investors
multiple sectors, quality and location continue with appropriate expertise and capital.
to underpin the long-term investment thesis
for commercial and industrial property in New Retail assets have demonstrated remarkable
Zealand. The country’s distinctive geographical resilience, particularly those focused on non-
constraints, particularly around major urban discretionary spending. Shopping centres
centres, have historically limited developable land, anchored by supermarkets and large format retail
while escalating construction costs have further premises have maintained high occupancy rates
restricted new supply. throughout the economic cycle. As business
conditions improve and consumer confidence
The recent economic cycle has significantly strengthens, we anticipate renewed demand
dampened construction activity, creating a for well-located strip retail, particularly in areas
substantial lag between improving business with strong demographic fundamentals and
conditions and the completion of new tourism potential.
developments. This supply gap is particularly
evident in the industrial sector, where vacancy Improving macroeconomic conditions and
rates, although currently above historical persistent structural supply constraints positions
averages, remain notably low compared to commercial and industrial property for a robust
select international benchmarks. The limited performance over the medium term. Investors
pipeline of new industrial stock, coupled with who can identify assets with strong locational
continued growth in logistics and e-commerce, advantages and adaptation potential will be
suggests sustained rental growth potential particularly well-positioned to benefit from the
throughout 2026-2027. next phase of the market cycle.

11
Reset and Rebound

05 New Zealand’s three major commercial property


markets of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch
have each displayed distinctive investment

Regional differences, but all show positive signs of


increased turnover activity.

spotlights Auckland has maintained its position as the


country’s premier investment destination,
NZ’s key investment hotspots consistently capturing almost two-thirds of
national transaction volume. The city recorded
NZ$2.6 billion in transactions during 2024,
representing a solid recovery from 2023. In the
first half of 2025, we estimate a total value of
NZ$842.7 million of properties have transacted,
continuing this trend.

There have been a number of large format retail


assets change hands in Auckland over the past
18 months, and Auckland’s industrial precincts

12
Reset and Rebound

have recorded a particularly strong performance. long-term income security offered by these
South and East Auckland assets commanding properties despite changing workplace strategies.
premium pricing on the strength of their asset Highlighting the add-value and regeneration
quality and strategic logistics value are examples, opportunities in the capital city, the JLL-brokered
as well as the North Shore areas of Albany and deal of Reading Courtney Central and associated
Silverdale, together with Westgate. The areas landholdings for NZ$38 million is another example
have become investment hotspots, benefiting of strategic investment purchasing occurring
from population growth, infrastructure at this time of
improvements, and lower dollar value entry the cycle.
points for many investors.
Christchurch is a compelling investment
Wellington’s market has demonstrated remarkable destination, consistently maintaining a 10-12%
resilience, recording NZ$426.4 million in share of national transaction values. The city
transactions during 2024, and approximately recorded NZ$648.1 million in transactions during
NZ$153.8 million in the first half of 2025. The 2024, and approximately NZ$136.8 million in the
capital’s transaction activity has been characterised first half of 2025, continuing its upward trajectory
by larger average deal sizes recently, a result of from previous years. The successful completion
flagship office asset transactions, including the PAG of major CBD developments has created a
Real Estate acquisition of Precinct Properties’ 40 modernised commercial core that attracts both
and 44 Bowen Street. Investors recognise the occupiers and investors.

Transaction values across major cities – NZD5m or more

Billions
$7.0
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1H25
Auckland Wellington Christchurch

Source: JLL Research

13
Reset and Rebound

06 The investment market has demonstrated a


relatively robust performance and adaptability
over the past 18 months, with transaction data

Sector strength highlighting positive momentum across diverse


asset classes as investors strategically allocate
capital across the asset classes.
What’s driving demand?
The industrial sector maintains its strong position
and is exhibiting a typical upswing post-cyclical
low. In 2024, there was NZ$2.20 billion in industrial
property transaction value, representing 53% of
total investment activity. In the first half of 2025,
we have seen approximately NZ$695.5 million,
representing 52%.

This impressive performance reflects the sector’s


long-term demand and supply imbalances, as
evidenced by the sub-6% vacancy rates across the
Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch markets,

14
Reset and Rebound

and supply constraints reemerging as evident in occurring for well-located, high-quality premises
national consenting activity. Logistics facilities or assets that can be repositioned for the next
continue to attract premium investment interest, economic and financial upswing or improving
with modern distribution centres and cold storage locational attributes, including improving
commanding strong pricing as their strategic amenities and facilities. Another trend driving
value in supply chains becomes increasingly the office sector is the focus on environmental
recognised. The sector’s years of steady rental credentials, as noted in the previous section on
growth creates compelling investment dynamics investment drivers.
that continue to draw interest from both local and
offshore investors. The retail sector is emerging as a key asset class
of choice for many investors since the cyclical
Office asset transaction activity illustrates an low of 2023. In 2024, total retail transaction
encouraging recovery from 2023 cyclical lows. volumes reached NZ$946.3 million, representing
Solid investment volumes were reached in 2024 at almost a quarter of all commercial and industrial
NZ$963.8 million and securing a 24% share of total sales activity. This momentum has continued
transaction value. In the first half of 2025, we have in the first half of 2025 with NZ$383.9 million.
recorded around NZ$260.5 million. Neighbourhood centres and large format retail
centres are continuing to be highly sought after as
The sector is successfully navigating the evolving a result of its defensive investment characteristics.
workplace landscape, with solid sales activity

15
Reset and Rebound

07
Trans-Tasman case study:
Australia and New Zealand
A comparative analysis of the commercial property markets in New Zealand and major Australian cities
reveals distinct investment dynamics. For offshore investors, particularly those active in Australia,
New Zealand presents compelling opportunities for strategic portfolio diversification, driven by unique
supply-demand fundamentals, specific yield characteristics, and demonstrated market resilience.

16
Reset and Rebound

Supply-demand fundamentals drive investment case

Market fundamentals reveal diverging during the recent correction and lower cash rate
supply-demand characteristics between the currently in NZ. Industrial yields experienced
two jurisdictions, piquing the interest of investors limited movement compared to Australia’s more
searching for yield, portfolio diversification, and pronounced yield expansion. The combination
comparative stability in investment returns. of constrained supply and comparatively lower
yields signals strong investor expectations for
Auckland’s industrial market showcases a New Zealand’s medium to long-term industrial
significantly tighter supply-demand dynamic, prospects, with market participants confident in
with vacancy rates at just 2.8%. This compares sustained high occupancy levels and continued
to Sydney (4.4%), Melbourne (5.3%), and rental growth potential.
Brisbane (4.7%). From an investor perspective,
this indicates a structural undersupply that Office markets, while exhibiting broadly
supports premium pricing. Reflecting this robust comparable conditions with Auckland’s 18.2%
environment, Auckland’s prime industrial average vacancy alongside Melbourne’s 19.7% and
yields at 5.25% trade below Sydney (5.44%) and Sydney’s 14.2%, nonetheless present differing
Melbourne (5.81%). This yield inversion marks a investor sentiments. Auckland’s prime average
reversal of historical norms, where New Zealand office yields, at 5.81%, indicate a market that
assets typically carried a risk premium over their has retained stronger investor confidence and
Australian counterparts. The shift can be attributed stability compared to Sydney (6.32%) and
to New Zealand’s more resilient market behavior Melbourne (7.13%), where yields are notably

17
Reset and Rebound

higher. This yield differential directly reflects However, the broader New Zealand retail
New Zealand’s more stable pricing throughout landscape, particularly shopping centres and large
the current correction cycle, where office yields format retail (LFR), exhibits stronger underlying
experienced modest movement in contrast to resilience. These sub-sectors have maintained
the yield expansion observed across Australian robust rentals and stable occupancy levels,
markets. This preserved confidence in Auckland’s supported by CPI-linked leases and strong
office fundamentals is further driven by specific consumer spending in dominant catchment areas.
CBD dynamics. Even with elevated headline Indeed, shopping centre occupancy remained in
vacancy, a pronounced “flight to quality” is the high 90% range even through challenging
evident, with prime assets in desirable locations periods, underpinning solid investor expectations
maintaining stronger occupancy. This pattern for medium-to-long-term income stability.
reveals a significant portion of the overall vacancy Furthermore, the LFR sector specifically has
as structural, largely concentrated in older, garnered significant investor attention, drawn to its
secondary-grade buildings. This distinction enables strong covenants and essential service tenancies.
investors to more clearly differentiate between
premium opportunities and assets requiring The backdrop of a lower Reserve Bank of
substantial repositioning, thereby underpinning New Zealand’s cash rate compared to Australia’s
more robust expectations for medium-term rental is poised to further enhance investment activity
recovery within Auckland’s prime office segments. across all commercial property sectors by
reducing borrowing costs. This improved financing
In the retail sector, a nuanced dynamic emerges. environment, combined with the sector-specific
Auckland’s CBD prime retail yields currently stand strengths outlined, collectively points to
at 6.88%, which is slightly higher than attractive opportunities for robust cash flow and
Sydney (6.00%), Melbourne (6.00%), and Brisbane long-term value creation. The robust industrial
(6.25%). This yield position, coupled with a yield undersupply, resilient office market confidence,
expansion of approximately 100 basis points from and strong performance of key retail sub-sectors
its peak (a more significant increase than most demonstrate New Zealand’s commercial real estate
major Australian cities), largely reflects the impact market’s compelling investment fundamentals
of economic conditions and structural challenges across multiple asset classes.
within traditional CBD retail environments.

18
19
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%

3%
5%
7%
9%
10%

11%

4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Q3-2000 Q2 2000 Q2 2000 Q2 2000
Q2-2001 Q1 2001 Q1 2001 Q1 2001
Q1-2002 Q4 2001 Q4 2001 Q4 2001

Sydney
Sydney

Sydney
Source: JLL Research
Source: JLL Research
Source: JLL Research
Q4-2002 Q3 2002 Q3 2002 Q3 2002

Source: RBNZ and RBA


Reset and Rebound

Q2 2003

New Zealand
Q3-2003 Q2 2003 Q2 2003
Q2-2004 Q1 2004 Q1 2004 Q1 2004
Q1-2005 Q4 2004 Q4 2004 Q4 2004
Q4-2005 Q3 2005 Q3 2005 Q3 2005

Auckland
Auckland

Auckland
Q3-2006 Q2 2006 Q2 2006 Q2 2006

Australia
Q2-2007 Q1 2007 Q1 2007 Q1 2007
Q1-2008 Q4 2007 Q4 2007 Q4 2007
Q4-2008 Q3 2008 Q3 2008 Q3 2008
Q3-2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009
Q2-2010 Q1 2010 Q1 2010 Q1 2010

Cash rate trends: New Zealand and Australia


Q1-2011 Q4 2010 Q4 2010 Q4 2010
Q4-2011 Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Q3 2011
Sydney vs. Auckland: Prime office yields over time

Q3-2012 Q2 2012 Q2 2012 Q2 2012


Q2-2013 Q1 2013 Q1 2013 Q1 2013
Sydney vs. Auckland: Prime industrial yields over time

Sydney vs. Auckland: Prime CBD retail yields over time


Q1-2014 Q4 2013 Q4 2013 Q4 2013
Q4-2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2014 Q3 2014
Q3-2015 Q2 2015 Q2 2015 Q2 2015
Q2-2016 Q1 2016 Q1 2016 Q1 2016
Q1-2017 Q4 2016 Q4 2016 Q4 2016
Q4-2017 Q3 2017 Q3 2017 Q3 2017
Q3-2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q2 2018
Q2-2019 Q1 2019 Q1 2019 Q1 2019
Q1-2020 Q4 2019 Q4 2019 Q4 2019
Q4-2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020 Q3 2020
Q3-2021 Q2 2021 Q2 2021 Q2 2021
Q2-2022 Q1 2022 Q1 2022 Q1 2022
Q1-2023 Q4 2022 Q4 2022 Q4 2022
Q4-2023 Q3 2023 Q3 2023 Q3 2023
Q3-2024 Q2 2024 Q2 2024 Q2 2024
Q2-2025 Q1 2025 Q1 2025 Q1 2025
Reset and Rebound

Strategic considerations for offshore capital

While Australia’s commercial real estate market predictable local cycle. Such resilience presents
commands larger annual investment volumes, offshore investors with opportunities to acquire
typically five to six times higher than New assets at comparatively stable valuations and
Zealand’s, this scale differential positions New potentially attractive entry points. Looking ahead,
Zealand as a compelling strategic alternative for as Australian yields eventually normalise and
sophisticated offshore investors. The contained compress, the overall positive sentiment and
yield movement in New Zealand markets, coupled return to more traditional yield relationships
with structural advantages, creates attractive entry across the region could further enhance the
opportunities for those seeking stability. Major relative attractiveness and capital value of New
offshore investors are increasingly recognising Zealand assets, benefiting early-positioned
this, demonstrating a growing presence across investors from this broader market recalibration.
New Zealand’s office, industrial, and retail sectors,
enhancing market depth and liquidity. Ultimately, New Zealand’s unique market
characteristics, including its demonstrated
New Zealand’s structural undersupply, particularly resilience and potentially more predictable cycle,
evident in the industrial sector, coupled with position it as a valuable component for investors
yields that avoided the recent expansion seen seeking to augment or complement their existing
across Australian markets, has fostered a more portfolio strategies, offering diversification and
stable pricing environment. This stability is rooted potential for comparatively steady long-term
in preserved investor confidence and a more returns within the Asia-Pacific region.

20
Reset and Rebound

Looking ahead:
Opportunities on
the horizon
The outlook for New Zealand’s commercial and
industrial property market remains constructive
as we progress through 2025 and into 2026,
supported by converging positive fundamentals
that position the market for sustained growth.

21
Reset and Rebound

Macroeconomic Structural supply constraints


tailwinds continue create opportunity

The OCR has been cut from 5.5% to 2.5% between New Zealand’s distinctive geographical constraints
August 2024 and October 2025, with potentially and high construction costs continue to limit new
further cuts by year-end. This will provide additional supply across all sectors. The substantial lag between
stimulus to investment activity. Enhanced lending improving business conditions and new development
appetite from financial institutions, combined with completions creates compelling investment
improved underwriting certainty, will expand capital opportunities, particularly in the industrial sector,
accessibility for well-positioned commercial assets where the limited pipeline of new stock, coupled
with strong tenant covenants. This monetary policy with continued growth in logistics and e-commerce,
trajectory supports a more favourable financing suggests sustained rental growth potential
environment that should sustain transaction throughout 2026-2027.
momentum through 2026.

Capital Investment
flow diversification strategy focus

The projected increase in offshore investment Investors who can identify assets with strong
reflects growing international recognition of New locational advantages, adaptation potential, and
Zealand’s property fundamentals. This diversification modern ESG credentials will be particularly well-
of capital sources, combined with sustained local positioned to benefit from the next phase of the
investor confidence, establishes positive market market cycle. The convergence of vendor and
dynamics that support continued liquidity and price purchaser pricing expectations, driven by greater
discovery mechanisms. economic clarity, creates optimal conditions for
strategic asset acquisition and portfolio optimisation.

Sector-specific
The combination of improving macroeconomic
growth drivers conditions, persistent structural supply constraints,
and diversified capital flows positions New Zealand’s
Industrial property is positioned to benefit from commercial and industrial property market for robust
historically low vacancy rates across major markets performance over the medium term, with transaction
and emerging supply constraints evident in national values potentially approaching pre-2023 cyclical
consenting activity. The office market presents levels by late 2026.
nuanced opportunities, with prime-grade assets
maintaining low vacancy rates whilst secondary assets
offer compelling value-add prospects for investors with
repositioning expertise. Retail assets, particularly those
focussed on non-discretionary spending and anchored
by supermarkets and DIY trade, demonstrate resilience
and potential for renewed strip retail demand in areas
with strong demographic fundamentals.

22
Reset and Rebound

Major recent sales


New Zealand

Retail

Manukau Supa Centa,


Manukau, Auckland

In May 2025, the Manukau Supa Centa was sold


to Willis Bond’s Property Income Fund for $161m,
reflecting an initial yield of 7.21%. The 39,183 sqm
LFR Centre boasts 45 tenants, including the second
largest Kmart store in NZ.

2-12 Titirangi Road, Bunnings New Lynn,


New Lynn, Auckland

In July 2025, Cook Property Group settled the sale


of the Bunnings New Lynn at 2-12 Titirangi Road for
$43m. The 11,000 sqm LFR was acquired by Investore
Property Limited.

1 Kelmarna Avenue, Woolworths Herne Bay,


Herne Bay, Auckland

In March 2025, the 1,640 sqm supermarket was sold


for $28.54 m, reflecting an initial yield of 5.47% to
Singapore-based investors.

23
Reset and Rebound

Major recent sales


New Zealand

Industrial

38-44 Dalgety Drive,


Wiri, Auckland

In mid-2025, investor ESR acquired the 60,000 sqm


facility for $120m from locally owned Gasoline
Properties Limited, reflecting an initial yield of 3.27%.

169 Bush Road,


Albany, Auckland

In May 2025, the site was purchased by a private


investor for $89m.

27 Ross Reid & 44 Zelanian Drive,


East Tamaki, Auckland

In June 2025, Jasper expanded its Auckland Industrial


portfolio with the acquisition of 27 Ross Reid Place
and 44 Zelanian Drive, in a $28.7m transaction for the
20,384 sqm site.

24
Reset and Rebound

Major recent sales


New Zealand

Office

22, 24, & 26 Durham Street West and


19 Victoria Street West, Auckland Central

Four interconnected office buildings, 22, 24 and


26 Durham Street West, as well as 19 Victoria Street
West was acquired by Quattro Group in June 2025
for $104m.

40 & 44 Bowen Street,


Wellington Central

In June 2025, Precinct Properties announced the


settlement of its sale of a 20% interest in 40 and
44 Bowen Street to an offshore purchaser for $48m.

150 Victoria Street,


Auckland Central

In late-2024, this 2,960 sqm office building in Auckland


central sold for $21.07m to an international investor
based in New Zealand.

*Please note all values referenced are represented in NZD.

25
Reset and Rebound

Major recent sales


Australia

Retail

Figtree Grove Shopping Centre,


Figtree, Wollongong, NSW

Recently, Figtree Grove Shopping Centre, featuring over


90 stores was sold for $192m.

Office

135 King Street,


Sydney CBD, NSW

In early 2025, Investa sold 135 King Street, an A-grade


office asset comprising 32,695 sqm of NLA, to
Japan-based Daibiru Corporation for $608.1m.

388 George Street,


Sydney CBD, NSW

Late 2024, Singapore-listed real estate firm and


its affiliated company agreed to acquire a 50%
stake in 388 George Street from Brookfield Asset
Management for $460m.

26
Reset and Rebound

Major recent sales


Australia

Industrial

Wacol Logistics Hub,


Wacol, Brisbane, QLD

In June 2025, a major e-commerce company acquired


the nearly 100,000 sqm Wacol Logistics Hub in
Brisbane for $253.5m.

PSP Investments – AGIV Partnership


Acquisition, multiple across NSW, VIC, QLD

In July 2025, PSP Investment, one of Canada’s largest


pension funds acquired a stake in the Aliro Group
Industrial Vehicle (AGIV) for $247.7m.

Eastern Edge Portfolio,


VIC, NSW

In recent months, Cadence Property Group acquired


the Eastern Edge portfolio for $170.5m. The
portfolio includes four institutional-grade logistics
assets totalling 78,246 sqm across Victoria and
New South Wales.

*Please note all values referenced are represented in AUD.


*All transactions mentioned above for Australia involved JLL.

27
[Link]

Research authors Research at JLL


JLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis
Chris Dibble Monish Khan and insight through marketleading reports and
services that illuminate today’s commercial
Head of Research and Analyst, Research and
real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s
Strategic Consulting Strategic Consulting
challenges and opportunities. Our more than 550
New Zealand New Zealand global research professionals track and analyze
[Link]@[Link] [Link]@[Link] economic and property trends and forecast
future conditions in over 60 countries, producing
Hina Uqaili Lee Pinfold unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our
Associate Director – REIS Senior Analyst, research and expertise, fueled by real-time
Australia and New Zealand Capital Markets information and innovative thinking around
[Link]@[Link] New Zealand the world, creates a competitive advantage for
our clients and drives successful strategies and
[Link]@[Link]
optimal real estate decisions.

To find out more about JLL services, contact: About JLL


For over 200 years, JLL (NYSE: JLL), a leading
Todd Lauchlan Luke Billiau global commercial real estate and investment
Managing Director and Interim CEO and management company, has helped clients buy,
build, occupy, manage and invest in a variety
Head of Capital Markets Head of Capital Markets
of commercial, industrial, hotel, residential and
New Zealand Australia and New Zealand
retail properties. A Fortune 500® company with
[Link]@[Link] [Link]@[Link]
annual revenue of $23.4 billion and operations
in over 80 countries around the world, our more
Jonathan Ogg Harry Fergusson than 112,000 employees bring the power of a
Executive Director, Associate Director, global platform combined with local expertise.
Capital Markets Capital Markets Driven by our purpose to shape the future of real
New Zealand New Zealand estate for a better world, we help our clients,
[Link]@[Link] [Link]@[Link] people and communities SEE A BRIGHTER
WAYSM. JLL is the brand name, and a registered
trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.
For further information, visit [Link].

This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics
discussed, which are inherently unpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified
those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete. Any views expressed in the report reflect
our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks
and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements. Advice we
give to clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report. No investment or other business decisions should be
made based solely on the views expressed in this report.

Copyright © Jones Lang Lasalle IP, Inc. 2025

You might also like