Reset and Rebound: New Zealand - October 2025
Reset and Rebound: New Zealand - October 2025
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command strong interest whilst secondary and repositioning potential. Retail has surprised
properties face a more selective buyer appetite. many with nearly NZ$946.3 million in activity,
particularly in non-discretionary and large
Macroeconomic improvements have provided format categories.
crucial support, with inflation moderating from
its 7.2% peak in 2022 to below 4% in 2024, and Geographically, Auckland continues to dominate
the Reserve Bank reducing the OCR from 5.5% transaction volumes, though Wellington and
to 2.5%. The RBNZ is signalling further cuts Christchurch are showing investor interest,
ahead, as well as a review into capital allocation particularly for assets offering value-add
requirements. Nevertheless, the recovery opportunities or defensive income characteristics.
trajectory remains measured, with buyers and The first half of 2025 has maintained this
sellers still navigating pricing expectations momentum with an estimated NZ$1.44 billion
as interest rates stabilise and economic in transactions, suggesting the market has
uncertainty diminishes. established a more sustainable foundation for
continued growth, albeit from a recalibrated base
The market recovery has demonstrated that reflects new economic realities.
encouraging breadth across asset classes,
though each sector faces distinct challenges and Looking ahead, the combination of improving
opportunities. Industrial property has maintained macroeconomic conditions, persistent structural
its resilience with NZ$2.20 billion in transactions, supply constraints, and diversified capital
benefiting from structural supply constraints and flows positions New Zealand’s commercial and
logistics demand. The office sector has shown industrial property market for robust performance
signs of stabilisation at NZ$963.8 million in over the medium term, with transaction values
transactions, with investors increasingly focused potentially approaching pre-2023 cyclical
on high-quality assets with strong ESG credentials levels by late 2026.
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supporting property value growth, enabling approximately NZ$2.5 billion in sales in 2024. In
a convergence of vendor and purchaser 2025, there have been a number of substantial
pricing expectations. transactions, including the NZ$120 million sale
of the Wiri Woolstore in Dalgety Drive to an
While transaction levels remain below the last offshore party, enabling the former private owner
cyclical peak of NZ$7.08 billion seen in 2021, the to recycle the capital into Goodman Property
2025 and 2024 recovery demonstrates a healthy Trust’s NZPost premises in North Shore, Auckland,
base for continued value and volume growth and which was sold for NZ$89 million. Brookfield
a more sustainable market dynamic. Asset Management’s latest purchase in the New
Zealand market and joint venture collaboration
When analysing the growth between 2023 and with Waikato Tainui at Ruakura Superhub as well
2024, total transaction volumes grew by +13.2%, as fund manager Mercer and Goodman
while total values increased by +5.4%, reflecting Group’s acquisition of 27.7% of Highbrook
increased market activity and deal flow. This Business Park highlight close to NZ$1 billion of
has flowed into 2025 with investors deploying transactions in a handful of deals in early 2025.
capital with greater conviction, targeting larger
and higher-quality assets as market conditions The Office sector gathered investment momentum
have stabilised. throughout 2024, with close to NZ$1 billion in
transactions recorded, reflecting strategic buyer
An analysis of capital flows by asset class in interest in well-positioned office assets. The recent
2025 reveals a broader-based recovery. In the sale of four interconnected premises at 22, 24 and
retail sector, one of the most significant 26 Durham St West and 19 Victoria St West for
transactions underpinning this momentum approximately NZ$104 million to Quattro Group
was the $161 million JLL-brokered sale of highlights the add-value options under
Auckland’s Manukau Supa Centa in early 2025, consideration for the sector.
marking the largest retail transaction in nearly
a decade. There have also been a number of Importantly, the distribution of capital across
essential services and non-discretionary retail multiple sectors highlights a broad market
property transactions, predominantly of large recovery, not reliant on a single asset class
format retail properties across the country. performance, rather a strategic assessment of
each property’s underlying attributes and future
The Industrial sector maintained its position growth potential.
as the market’s bedrock, accounting for
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$1.0 50
$0.0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1H25
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has provided lending and investors with greater The office market presents a more nuanced
underwriting certainty, encouraging market picture, with prime-grade assets maintaining
re-entry. Banks are now showing an increased relatively low vacancy rates despite broader
willingness to finance well-positioned commercial market challenges. High-quality buildings with
assets with strong tenant covenants. strong ESG credentials and modern amenities
continue to attract and retain tenants, while
In addition to these macroeconomic factors, secondary assets with repositioning potential offer
structural supply-demand imbalances across compelling value-add opportunities for investors
multiple sectors, quality and location continue with appropriate expertise and capital.
to underpin the long-term investment thesis
for commercial and industrial property in New Retail assets have demonstrated remarkable
Zealand. The country’s distinctive geographical resilience, particularly those focused on non-
constraints, particularly around major urban discretionary spending. Shopping centres
centres, have historically limited developable land, anchored by supermarkets and large format retail
while escalating construction costs have further premises have maintained high occupancy rates
restricted new supply. throughout the economic cycle. As business
conditions improve and consumer confidence
The recent economic cycle has significantly strengthens, we anticipate renewed demand
dampened construction activity, creating a for well-located strip retail, particularly in areas
substantial lag between improving business with strong demographic fundamentals and
conditions and the completion of new tourism potential.
developments. This supply gap is particularly
evident in the industrial sector, where vacancy Improving macroeconomic conditions and
rates, although currently above historical persistent structural supply constraints positions
averages, remain notably low compared to commercial and industrial property for a robust
select international benchmarks. The limited performance over the medium term. Investors
pipeline of new industrial stock, coupled with who can identify assets with strong locational
continued growth in logistics and e-commerce, advantages and adaptation potential will be
suggests sustained rental growth potential particularly well-positioned to benefit from the
throughout 2026-2027. next phase of the market cycle.
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have recorded a particularly strong performance. long-term income security offered by these
South and East Auckland assets commanding properties despite changing workplace strategies.
premium pricing on the strength of their asset Highlighting the add-value and regeneration
quality and strategic logistics value are examples, opportunities in the capital city, the JLL-brokered
as well as the North Shore areas of Albany and deal of Reading Courtney Central and associated
Silverdale, together with Westgate. The areas landholdings for NZ$38 million is another example
have become investment hotspots, benefiting of strategic investment purchasing occurring
from population growth, infrastructure at this time of
improvements, and lower dollar value entry the cycle.
points for many investors.
Christchurch is a compelling investment
Wellington’s market has demonstrated remarkable destination, consistently maintaining a 10-12%
resilience, recording NZ$426.4 million in share of national transaction values. The city
transactions during 2024, and approximately recorded NZ$648.1 million in transactions during
NZ$153.8 million in the first half of 2025. The 2024, and approximately NZ$136.8 million in the
capital’s transaction activity has been characterised first half of 2025, continuing its upward trajectory
by larger average deal sizes recently, a result of from previous years. The successful completion
flagship office asset transactions, including the PAG of major CBD developments has created a
Real Estate acquisition of Precinct Properties’ 40 modernised commercial core that attracts both
and 44 Bowen Street. Investors recognise the occupiers and investors.
Billions
$7.0
$6.0
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.0
$0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1H25
Auckland Wellington Christchurch
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and supply constraints reemerging as evident in occurring for well-located, high-quality premises
national consenting activity. Logistics facilities or assets that can be repositioned for the next
continue to attract premium investment interest, economic and financial upswing or improving
with modern distribution centres and cold storage locational attributes, including improving
commanding strong pricing as their strategic amenities and facilities. Another trend driving
value in supply chains becomes increasingly the office sector is the focus on environmental
recognised. The sector’s years of steady rental credentials, as noted in the previous section on
growth creates compelling investment dynamics investment drivers.
that continue to draw interest from both local and
offshore investors. The retail sector is emerging as a key asset class
of choice for many investors since the cyclical
Office asset transaction activity illustrates an low of 2023. In 2024, total retail transaction
encouraging recovery from 2023 cyclical lows. volumes reached NZ$946.3 million, representing
Solid investment volumes were reached in 2024 at almost a quarter of all commercial and industrial
NZ$963.8 million and securing a 24% share of total sales activity. This momentum has continued
transaction value. In the first half of 2025, we have in the first half of 2025 with NZ$383.9 million.
recorded around NZ$260.5 million. Neighbourhood centres and large format retail
centres are continuing to be highly sought after as
The sector is successfully navigating the evolving a result of its defensive investment characteristics.
workplace landscape, with solid sales activity
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Trans-Tasman case study:
Australia and New Zealand
A comparative analysis of the commercial property markets in New Zealand and major Australian cities
reveals distinct investment dynamics. For offshore investors, particularly those active in Australia,
New Zealand presents compelling opportunities for strategic portfolio diversification, driven by unique
supply-demand fundamentals, specific yield characteristics, and demonstrated market resilience.
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Market fundamentals reveal diverging during the recent correction and lower cash rate
supply-demand characteristics between the currently in NZ. Industrial yields experienced
two jurisdictions, piquing the interest of investors limited movement compared to Australia’s more
searching for yield, portfolio diversification, and pronounced yield expansion. The combination
comparative stability in investment returns. of constrained supply and comparatively lower
yields signals strong investor expectations for
Auckland’s industrial market showcases a New Zealand’s medium to long-term industrial
significantly tighter supply-demand dynamic, prospects, with market participants confident in
with vacancy rates at just 2.8%. This compares sustained high occupancy levels and continued
to Sydney (4.4%), Melbourne (5.3%), and rental growth potential.
Brisbane (4.7%). From an investor perspective,
this indicates a structural undersupply that Office markets, while exhibiting broadly
supports premium pricing. Reflecting this robust comparable conditions with Auckland’s 18.2%
environment, Auckland’s prime industrial average vacancy alongside Melbourne’s 19.7% and
yields at 5.25% trade below Sydney (5.44%) and Sydney’s 14.2%, nonetheless present differing
Melbourne (5.81%). This yield inversion marks a investor sentiments. Auckland’s prime average
reversal of historical norms, where New Zealand office yields, at 5.81%, indicate a market that
assets typically carried a risk premium over their has retained stronger investor confidence and
Australian counterparts. The shift can be attributed stability compared to Sydney (6.32%) and
to New Zealand’s more resilient market behavior Melbourne (7.13%), where yields are notably
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higher. This yield differential directly reflects However, the broader New Zealand retail
New Zealand’s more stable pricing throughout landscape, particularly shopping centres and large
the current correction cycle, where office yields format retail (LFR), exhibits stronger underlying
experienced modest movement in contrast to resilience. These sub-sectors have maintained
the yield expansion observed across Australian robust rentals and stable occupancy levels,
markets. This preserved confidence in Auckland’s supported by CPI-linked leases and strong
office fundamentals is further driven by specific consumer spending in dominant catchment areas.
CBD dynamics. Even with elevated headline Indeed, shopping centre occupancy remained in
vacancy, a pronounced “flight to quality” is the high 90% range even through challenging
evident, with prime assets in desirable locations periods, underpinning solid investor expectations
maintaining stronger occupancy. This pattern for medium-to-long-term income stability.
reveals a significant portion of the overall vacancy Furthermore, the LFR sector specifically has
as structural, largely concentrated in older, garnered significant investor attention, drawn to its
secondary-grade buildings. This distinction enables strong covenants and essential service tenancies.
investors to more clearly differentiate between
premium opportunities and assets requiring The backdrop of a lower Reserve Bank of
substantial repositioning, thereby underpinning New Zealand’s cash rate compared to Australia’s
more robust expectations for medium-term rental is poised to further enhance investment activity
recovery within Auckland’s prime office segments. across all commercial property sectors by
reducing borrowing costs. This improved financing
In the retail sector, a nuanced dynamic emerges. environment, combined with the sector-specific
Auckland’s CBD prime retail yields currently stand strengths outlined, collectively points to
at 6.88%, which is slightly higher than attractive opportunities for robust cash flow and
Sydney (6.00%), Melbourne (6.00%), and Brisbane long-term value creation. The robust industrial
(6.25%). This yield position, coupled with a yield undersupply, resilient office market confidence,
expansion of approximately 100 basis points from and strong performance of key retail sub-sectors
its peak (a more significant increase than most demonstrate New Zealand’s commercial real estate
major Australian cities), largely reflects the impact market’s compelling investment fundamentals
of economic conditions and structural challenges across multiple asset classes.
within traditional CBD retail environments.
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4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
3%
5%
7%
9%
10%
11%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Q3-2000 Q2 2000 Q2 2000 Q2 2000
Q2-2001 Q1 2001 Q1 2001 Q1 2001
Q1-2002 Q4 2001 Q4 2001 Q4 2001
Sydney
Sydney
Sydney
Source: JLL Research
Source: JLL Research
Source: JLL Research
Q4-2002 Q3 2002 Q3 2002 Q3 2002
Q2 2003
New Zealand
Q3-2003 Q2 2003 Q2 2003
Q2-2004 Q1 2004 Q1 2004 Q1 2004
Q1-2005 Q4 2004 Q4 2004 Q4 2004
Q4-2005 Q3 2005 Q3 2005 Q3 2005
Auckland
Auckland
Auckland
Q3-2006 Q2 2006 Q2 2006 Q2 2006
Australia
Q2-2007 Q1 2007 Q1 2007 Q1 2007
Q1-2008 Q4 2007 Q4 2007 Q4 2007
Q4-2008 Q3 2008 Q3 2008 Q3 2008
Q3-2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009
Q2-2010 Q1 2010 Q1 2010 Q1 2010
While Australia’s commercial real estate market predictable local cycle. Such resilience presents
commands larger annual investment volumes, offshore investors with opportunities to acquire
typically five to six times higher than New assets at comparatively stable valuations and
Zealand’s, this scale differential positions New potentially attractive entry points. Looking ahead,
Zealand as a compelling strategic alternative for as Australian yields eventually normalise and
sophisticated offshore investors. The contained compress, the overall positive sentiment and
yield movement in New Zealand markets, coupled return to more traditional yield relationships
with structural advantages, creates attractive entry across the region could further enhance the
opportunities for those seeking stability. Major relative attractiveness and capital value of New
offshore investors are increasingly recognising Zealand assets, benefiting early-positioned
this, demonstrating a growing presence across investors from this broader market recalibration.
New Zealand’s office, industrial, and retail sectors,
enhancing market depth and liquidity. Ultimately, New Zealand’s unique market
characteristics, including its demonstrated
New Zealand’s structural undersupply, particularly resilience and potentially more predictable cycle,
evident in the industrial sector, coupled with position it as a valuable component for investors
yields that avoided the recent expansion seen seeking to augment or complement their existing
across Australian markets, has fostered a more portfolio strategies, offering diversification and
stable pricing environment. This stability is rooted potential for comparatively steady long-term
in preserved investor confidence and a more returns within the Asia-Pacific region.
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Looking ahead:
Opportunities on
the horizon
The outlook for New Zealand’s commercial and
industrial property market remains constructive
as we progress through 2025 and into 2026,
supported by converging positive fundamentals
that position the market for sustained growth.
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The OCR has been cut from 5.5% to 2.5% between New Zealand’s distinctive geographical constraints
August 2024 and October 2025, with potentially and high construction costs continue to limit new
further cuts by year-end. This will provide additional supply across all sectors. The substantial lag between
stimulus to investment activity. Enhanced lending improving business conditions and new development
appetite from financial institutions, combined with completions creates compelling investment
improved underwriting certainty, will expand capital opportunities, particularly in the industrial sector,
accessibility for well-positioned commercial assets where the limited pipeline of new stock, coupled
with strong tenant covenants. This monetary policy with continued growth in logistics and e-commerce,
trajectory supports a more favourable financing suggests sustained rental growth potential
environment that should sustain transaction throughout 2026-2027.
momentum through 2026.
Capital Investment
flow diversification strategy focus
The projected increase in offshore investment Investors who can identify assets with strong
reflects growing international recognition of New locational advantages, adaptation potential, and
Zealand’s property fundamentals. This diversification modern ESG credentials will be particularly well-
of capital sources, combined with sustained local positioned to benefit from the next phase of the
investor confidence, establishes positive market market cycle. The convergence of vendor and
dynamics that support continued liquidity and price purchaser pricing expectations, driven by greater
discovery mechanisms. economic clarity, creates optimal conditions for
strategic asset acquisition and portfolio optimisation.
Sector-specific
The combination of improving macroeconomic
growth drivers conditions, persistent structural supply constraints,
and diversified capital flows positions New Zealand’s
Industrial property is positioned to benefit from commercial and industrial property market for robust
historically low vacancy rates across major markets performance over the medium term, with transaction
and emerging supply constraints evident in national values potentially approaching pre-2023 cyclical
consenting activity. The office market presents levels by late 2026.
nuanced opportunities, with prime-grade assets
maintaining low vacancy rates whilst secondary assets
offer compelling value-add prospects for investors with
repositioning expertise. Retail assets, particularly those
focussed on non-discretionary spending and anchored
by supermarkets and DIY trade, demonstrate resilience
and potential for renewed strip retail demand in areas
with strong demographic fundamentals.
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Retail
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Industrial
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Office
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Retail
Office
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Industrial
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discussed, which are inherently unpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified
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