Transition

Design
Si Guide Series
 Overview
This guide has been created to help you better understand the conditions for
transformation, the key aspects and dynamics of transitions, as well as what it means to
adopt an approach to design that is suited to guiding change within complexity.

Transition design is the design of structures and processes to enable a transition within
complex adaptive systems. This starts with first understanding the nature and dynamics
of transformative change within complex systems. After this, we need to also
understand the different models used to represent these change processes and how to
use them to design the right context for systems change.
 Systems Thinking Systems Awareness Systems Theory Complexity Theory Adaptive Systems

Where am I?
This paper forms part of
our set of 20 guides guide System Inquiry Systems Modeling Mapping Actor Mapping Leverage Points
covering all things systems
innovation.

Transition Design Transition Models Furtures & Naratives System Gardening Co-Design

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Systems Building Networks Value Network Scaling Change Systemic Evaluation
 Guide Contents

Conditions for Key Aspects of Transition Guiding

Change Transitions Dynamics Change
Understanding that Learning about the key Exploring the Adaptive Learning about guiding
systems change requires characteristics of Cycle model to understand change and working
the right conditions transition processes the dynamics of transitions with context
Conditions
for Change
 Constructive Change
Countless attempts to change complex organizations have ended up in the rubbish dump of history. This is
because complex systems will inherently resist such changes unless they are made at the right time in the
right way. The right time means identifying and working with a system when it is in a transition period. The
right way means understanding and working to guide those inherent drivers of change in a constructive
direction. There are two key aspects to this that we focus on in this guide. Firstly the working of transition
processes within complex systems and secondly how we can influence or guide these transitions.
 Conditions for Change
Transition periods provide the conditions for large-scale
systemic change. The only time we get to do large-scale system
change is when a system is in transition. When a system is in its
normal state one's capacity to alter the whole organization will
be close to zero. As long as an organization is in or near its
normal state of operation, it will strongly resist systemic change.

Our only chance for effecting systems change is when the

current paradigm is no longer working. Not only this but the
system will have already had to have faced some critical issues
that the old model has manifestly been proven incapable of
solving before the mainstream of the organization will be ready
for any form of major change process. If the system does not
contain the energy to transform itself then there is no option for
systemic change in a constructive direction. Thus we can not
change a system, only guide transformation processes.
 Systems Innovation Requires the Right Context

Our wonderful
innovation lab/

α
pilot project

Wrong Context Right Context

Without the supporting context no matter With the right factors in place within the
how good our innovation is it will likely not environment a suboptimal solution can
grow to change the system thrive and grow
 Example
As an illustration, we can take the environmental movement. Just forty or fifty years ago,
environmentalists put much effort into changing our economic system, but very little happened. It is
only now that an environmental crisis is apparent and the limitations of current solutions in the face
of that are clearer that there is the possibility for systems change. However, the time to solve the
environmental crisis was thirty or forty years ago; now it is too late to solve those issues within the
existing model. This highlights how a transition implies that we are not returning to the old model.

The terms systems innovation and systems change have risen to prominence today due to
fundamental transformations taking place in the global economy. These transfor mations are the
drivers of change, and it is only by harnessing them that we can hope to change anything on a
fundamental level.
 Tip from Russell Ackoff
"The easiest conditions under which to convince any organization to change is when it's
in the state of crisis when it's stability or survival is threatened. If it's desperate enough
it's willing to change in ways that it would never otherwise consider and therefore one
of the important techniques that are available is to show any organization, no matter
how successful it is, that in its current future there is a crisis impending. The way that's
done is you assume that the organization will continue to do what it's doing now
indefinitely into the future and you assume the organization's environment will change
but only in ways that it expects. Now if you project the future and the organization
under those two conditions, you have a non-adaptive organization and a changing
environment and therefore ultimately through non-adaptation destroy itself… the
projection reveals the Achilles heel of the organization.”
Characteristics
of Transitions
 Key Characteristics of Transitions

Structural Qualitative Nonlinear Discontinous

Transitions involve change The change is primarily a Change is nonlinear as There is no linear path
in system structure change in quality rather processes grow or decay at from the old to the new
than quantities an exponential rate paradigm
 The Nature of Transitions
With complex systems we never really get to redesign some new system, system change is really
about enabling transitions within an organization. A transition is a process or a period of change
from one condition to another. Transitions are pervasive in nature, many different types of
systems undergo rapid change before emerging in a new form or state of semi-stability on the
other side. Children become adults, seeds become plants, and a town becomes a metropolis,
but the classic example of a transition is the metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a butterfly.
 Inception Transformation
The creation of the The parts of the system are
new system reconfigured towards a new
system structure and fuction

influencin
LineargChange Emergence
The parts of the system are The emergence of a new
increased within the same system with new overall
overall pattern of organization properties and capacities
 Structural Changes
Transitions are changes in whole system structure, not
simply changes in any of its parts as would be the case
during normal incremental periods of change. Transitions
are different from normal linear processes of change as
they engender phase transitions where whole new macro-
level structures and parameters for defining the system
and its functioning emerge.

For example, as ice goes through a phase transition to

become water the overall structure of the substance
changes without any of the individual atoms or molecules
being changed. During a transition, the parts may stay
largely unchanged but the context around them changes
fundamentally.
Incremental Innovation Disruptive innovation Transformative innovation
More fuel efficient cars Autonomous & electric cars A city designed for cycling
 Paradigm Shift
A change in the overall system’s pattern we may term a
paradigm shift. Typically two overall patterns are mutually
exclusive, when we flip a coin we either get a head or a tail
not somewhere in between. Two people can exchange a
song if they both use analogue or both use digital but the
two overall patterns are mutually exclusive - they both have
to use the same pattern to enable the exchange.

This is why paradigm shifts happen very rarely and happen

fast because there are huge dislocations and inefficiencies
created by having two fundamentally different patterns in
the system and because there are huge advantages gained
by everyone using the same basic pattern. The system will
thus strongly resist staying in the transition process and once
it finds the new pattern move rapidly into it fueled by
network effects. We can see this in the change of political
regimes or the rise of the digital format.
 Insight from Dougald Hine
Sometimes you are born into the ending of a world. The story you were
born into doesn't have much further to run. The future no longer [Link]
is a thing that happens. It has happened to others before you. What moves
are worth trying, in such a time? First, as far as you can, stop trying to make
sense according to the logic of the world that is ending. Then start trying to
make good ruins, to release materials from the structures of that ending
world, materials that could be put to use in the building of worlds we can't
even imagine yet.
 Qualitative Change
Major system change comes about as a function of a
qualitative change in the system, not a quantitative change in
any of the parts. Even through the caterpillar and butterfly
share the same exact DNA, The organization of the structure
of a caterpillar and the butterfly are totally different.

Qualitative change is a systems-level transformation because it

is not about the system doing what it does better, faster or
more efficiently, it is about the system doing something
different. It is a change in the context, a change in the
understanding of the end objective of the system.

For example, the shift from an industrial age economic system

designed to maximize GDP towards one that is designed to
improve well-being would not engender more products or
goods but a reorganization of those within services to fulfil
new objectives.
New Dimensions of Performance
Transformations do not create a better, faster, larger version of
the current system, they create whole new dimensions of
performance that render the current way of doing things
irrelevant. Transformation is when new factors change the whole
landscape upon which actors compete.

For example, the advent of air transportation in the early 20th

century created a new dimension of performance in our global
transportation system. Going back to the butterfly analogy, we
can note that the creature before the transition process lives in a
two-dimensional world while afterwards, it exists in a new
dimension. Having the capacity to operate in this new dimension
renders many of the old challenges it faced almost irrelevant -
e.g. getting from one plant to another.
 Nonlinear Change
Transitions involve exponential periods of change. They
involved the change of system structure through the
rapid growth of the new, while at the same time, the
structures of the old system start to degrade
exponentially. The change is discontinuous - there is no
sequence or set of steps from the current paradigm that
will get us to the new one.

We must instead understand that the two are different

paradigms and one will have to disintegrate for the
other to be integrated and emerge. These nonlinear
periods of change are both rapid and unpredictable. We
can not really know how things will be recontextualize
within the new paradigm while in the old.
 Unsustainable
If a system is not in crisis then it is not going through a
systemic transformation. A systemic transformation implies
that the system cannot go on doing what it did in the past,
this is exhibited by some form of unsustainable phenomenon.

In a transition, the system cannot go on operating as it did in

the past and likewise, it cannot stay where it is because it is
consuming too many resources, it has to and will change; the
only question is will it degrade to a lower level or integrate to
a higher level.

Understanding the transition process and possible pathways

forward should be the main focus as thinking about going
back, staying where you are, or envisioning a future that
looks similar to the present is no longer relevant. By
definition, a transition implies that the system will change and
the future state will not be similar to the past.
 Insight from Immanuel Wallerstein
"All systems have lives, no system is eternal and that goes for the universe as an entire
system to the smallest sub atom. All systems have lives and the reason they all have lives
is because they all have internal contradictions, and over time they move far from
equilibrium and when they move far enough from equilibrium they begin to oscillate
enormously and they have, what the scientists of complexity call, this chaotic situation, a
bifurcation and at that point the system can not survive but where it will go is uncertain
because there are two alternative possibilities, that is a general premise.”
 Bifurcations
A bifurcation is when something splits into two different parts.
In this case, it is a divide between the old structures that begin
to disintegrate and the new structures as previously latent
patterns in the system emerge in response to the changing
context. During a transition the system starts to separate out
into two distinct regimes; business as usual, that is starting to
collapse and a second new pattern that starts to emerge.

During a transition the centralized structures that supported the

system in the previous regime become no longer functional,
they can no longer be depended upon to deliver the required
solutions to problems that extend beyond their level of
structural complexity; in the face of such problems, they appear
at best paralyzed. In order for the system to maintain its level of
functionality or evolve into a new form, new functional
structures have to emerge out of the distributed parts.
 Discontinuous Change
Transitions are discontinuous periods of change. This means
there is no linear set of steps or improvements of the current
paradigm that can take us to the new paradigm. The process
is one engendering the disintegration of the existing system
and the rebirth of a new system. The process requires that
the old pattern of organisation is retired and the resources
that it configured be let go.

There in parallel needs to grow a new pattern of

organization that is separate from the old and based upon a
new set of values, principles and ideas. The new pattern
needs to be nurtured, and supported to develop and
ultimately become the new configuration of the system and
its resources before the transition is successful. This involves
the simultaneous rise of new innovations in parallel with the
retirement of the old institutions and practices - what is
called “exnovation”.
 How We Plan for Change How Systems Change Happens

Upgrade

Upgrade Something
B Dies
Emergence
Upgrade A
Crisis

Something
New Grows
 Exnovation Innovation
Exnovation is the process of The creation and application
deconstructing existing of new ideas towards
institutions, practices or Phase-out connecting resources and
infrastructure to release capabilities within new
resources to the new De-resource patterns of organization
paradigm
Retire

Hostpice

Phase-in

Resource

Incubate

The Two Sides of Systems Innovation

Transition
Dynamics
 Overview
The adaptive cycle is a heuristic model developed by C.S.
Holling for understanding macro processes of change in
ecosystems. The adaptive cycle is equally applicable to a
transition process within any complex adaptive system.

It can be used to identify structural patterns in both

ecosystems as well as social systems as they go through
nonlinear processes of change, i.e. systems change. The
heuristic describes how complex adaptive systems evolve in
terms of four primary phases. These four phases are;
exploitation, conservation, release, and reorganization.

The adaptive cycle is a heuristic model that tells us something

about the different stages of the process of evolution. We
need to understand these inherent dynamics of transitions in
complex adaptive systems because this is how we can work
with the system's potencial for change.
 Reorganize Conservation
A time when the system begins to The conservation stage is a state
recover from falling apart. A of equilibrium, is about controlled
creative time when change can take development and this ‘equilibrium’
a variety of possible directions. is a time of stability.

α K

r Ω

Release
Exploitation The release phase is one of crisis
The first stage of exploitation is one and collapse when the system is
of a new environment, it is one of destroyed by an external
growth, a time of expansion and disturbance.
increasing complexity.
 Exploitation
The r-stage is the regenerative state in the process, it is
one of growth, a time of expansion and increasing
complexity. A system in the r-stage has successfully
reoriented post-crisis and there is now plenty of freely
available resources for rapid growth and development.

A time dominated by positive feedback and self-

organizing processes of assembly. Often marked by
abundant resources and entrepreneurial leadership. The
system has plentiful untapped and uncommitted
potentiality. Reconfiguration from unformed supplies
into new configurations is essential to system
maturation.
 Conservation
The K-stage, or equilibrium stage, is about controlled
development and this ‘equilibrium’ is a time of stability.
The system has reached a high level of complexity and
connection between its parts. In ecological systems, this is
equivalent to the climax ecosystem state, corresponding
to a dynamic equilibrium or steady state, when the
entropy production inside a system is balanced by the
entropy flow from the system to its environment.

A mature system in the K-stage dynamically performs at a

high level of activity and can be seen to be optimal,
exhibiting strong stability. At this stage, negative
feedback cycles dominate over positive feedback, but as
the system settles into a stable configuration there is the
possibility of rigidity forming.
 Release
The Ω-stage is one of crisis and collapse, when the system
is destroyed by an external disturbance. Positive feedback
generates dramatic change, and the system falls apart as
It is pushed out of its stability domain. The test of a
system in the Ω-stage is its capacity to survive in the face
of extreme disturbance or disordered collapse.

A system must maintain vital functions throughout the

crises. In social systems, it is often up to the leadership,
both formal or informal, to identify and prioritize what this
means. One of the ways that the diversity maintained
through small-scale disturbances contributes to the
resilience of the system is by cultivating a large stock of
resources from which it can pull during a crisis, both in
terms of organizations and their relationships, which is
essential for leadership to emerge during the Ω-stage.
 Reorganization
Reorganization is a time when the system begins to
recover from falling apart. It is a creative time when
change can take a variety of possible directions; that is,
the system has the possibility of moving into a variety of
new stability domains. ‘Chance’ can be important to the
way the system reorganizes, determining which new
stability domain it enters. The growth stage that follows
reorganization depends on the course initiated during
reorganization.

To reorient after crises, the system must reorganize these

pathways and node relations. The release stage provides
opportunities for new elements to enter and become
more prominent in the system, be they species, nutrients,
individual people, citizen groups or institutions.
 Guiding
Transitions
 Guiding Change
One cannot directly change a complex system only
guide an ongoing transition process. Thus systems
change is about working with transition processes
within complex systems so as to try and realize the
emergence of new structures and functions.

It is about influencing the system at certain strategic

“leverage points” so as to influence it in some way
towards a new higher equilibrium that is more
sustainable. To do this we need some insight into how
the system is changing, where we might like to get to,
points where we can influence it as well as some story
that illuminates the new paradigm. It is about working
with context, fostering new attractors in the system and
about creating direction rather than destination.
 Working with Context
Complex systems do not have linear material causality,
thus we cannot say, if I do this I will get that result.
Complexity theory effectively a priori invalidates any
method that says it can produce a defined result. This
changes the game, requiring us to rethink the basics of
what we mean by design and engineering.

To work with complex systems is to have to shift our

approach up from working with parts to dealing with
context. When the system is open we do not have the
privilege of control but instead only get to influence
the system, we influence it by changing the context.
Designing for context is not something we are used to
but something that needs to be learned.
Parts Design Systems Design
 Conditions for Emergence
Without formal design and centralized coordination,
components in complex adaptive systems interact in a
nonlinear-networked fashion. The type of organization and
patterns that result from this are defined by the type of
interactions between the components and incentives they
experience.

With transition design, we aim for global coordination

through the process of self-organization that requires an
initial state of lack of control, adaptive components, dense
interactions as an enabling context, and incentives towards
certain attractor states from which order emerges. Transition
design requires us to be gardeners of new attractors that can
lead to the emergence of new outcomes.
 References
Transition design framework
[Link]

Transition Design: Design for Systems-Level Change

[Link]

Transition Design: An Educational Framework for Advancing the Study and Design of
Sustainable Transitions
[Link]

Designing a Transition: On the Political Multivalence of Change

[Link]

Lecture: Cassie Robinson – Designing Transitions

[Link]

Systemic We-Construction: Exnovation as a Key to a Common Future

[Link]
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