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Systems Modeling Guide

This guide introduces systems modeling, focusing on a lightweight modeling language based on systems theory concepts like efficiency, energy, and emergence. It emphasizes the importance of understanding whole systems rather than just their parts, and teaches readers how to graphically represent and communicate about various systems. The guide also discusses the role of abstraction, perspectives, and the limitations of models in effectively capturing complex systems and their dynamics.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
20 views59 pages

Systems Modeling Guide

This guide introduces systems modeling, focusing on a lightweight modeling language based on systems theory concepts like efficiency, energy, and emergence. It emphasizes the importance of understanding whole systems rather than just their parts, and teaches readers how to graphically represent and communicate about various systems. The guide also discusses the role of abstraction, perspectives, and the limitations of models in effectively capturing complex systems and their dynamics.

Uploaded by

BF
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Systems

Modeling
Si Guide Series
What we cover in this guide
This guide is designed to introduce you to systems modeling. The guide presents
a lightweight modeling language that builds upon standard concepts within
systems theory, such as; efficiency, energy and entropy, integration, emergence,
functions, environments, etc. What is presented here is primarily qualitative in
nature, designed to provide a generic language for structuring our reasoning
about systems of all kinds.
The primary aim of systems modeling is to be able to shift our thinking from that
of seeing just parts to seeing whole systems and to be able to communicate this
insight. During this guide, readers will learn the language of systems theory and
learn how to graphically represent systems. These diagrams and vocabulary will
enable us to reason about a wide variety of phenomena while being able to
effectively communicate this to others.
Systems Thinking Systems Awareness Systems Theory Complexity Theory Adaptive Systems

System Inquiry Systems Modeling Mapping Actor Mapping Leverage Points

Where am I?
This paper forms part of
our set of 20 guides guide
covering all things systems
innovation. Transition Design Transition Models Furtures & Naratives System Gardening Co-Design

+++
Ecosystem Building Networks Value Network Scaling Change Systemic Evaluation
Guide Contents

Systems Models Functions Environment Dynamics


Set & Systems Systems Function Systems Boundary Feedback
Elements Energy & Entropy Autonomy System Dynamics
Relations Efficiency & Dissipation Environment Regulatory Systems
Emergence Inertia Hierarchy Homeostasis
Why Models?
Most systems in the real world are too complex for us to
grasp as a whole due to their many diverse components and
interactions. In practice, we can typically only interact with
and experience a small subset of a system. As such it is
models that, in some way, actually enable us to grasp the
whole system, but only ever through the use of abstraction
that creates a simplified representation of the actual real-
B
world phenomenon.
A model is an abstract and compact representation of some
phenomenon that enables us to conceptualize and
communicate its basic structure and dynamics in a coherent
A
fashion. All models are simplified representations of
reality. Models require the compression of information or
data to generate a simplified form. This simplification
process helps us to represent the whole of a system, to
organize and structure information, clarify our reasoning,
communicate, solve problems and predict events.
Abstraction
Models are created through the use of abstraction.
Abstraction is the process of removing various levels of detail
from the original empirical phenomenon in order to create a
compact schema or diagram of the system under
consideration.
Abstraction helps us to synthesize our many experiences of
some entity into a coherent impression of the whole. For
example, one may have a model as to what a nation like Brazil
is like, but one could only ever, in reality, interact with a very
limited subset of the different elements that constitute it.
The use of abstraction involves removing successive layers of
detail from a representation in order to capture only the
essential features that are generic to all entities of that kind
and independent of their specific form. Examples of
abstractions include an algebraic equation, a map of a city, an
architect's master plan of a building, or a non-figurative
painting.
Perspectives
To be effective, a model must capture diverse information,
perspectives, and views on a particular phenomenon. For
example, if we take some complex entity like a city, there will
be multiple perspectives on how to interpret it, such as social,
technological, economic, demographic, etc. An effective model
must be able to integrate all of these diverse perspectives in
some way to give us a vision of the whole system and a basic
understanding of its primary constituent parts and relations.
Models are not facts. They are structured and coherent ways of
looking at the world; thus, there is no such thing as a model
that is correct or incorrect. They are simply more or less useful
to us depending on what they enable us to see vs. what they
inhibit us from seeing. An effective model is a balancing act
between simplicity, through abstraction, and breadth or scope
in order to include all of the different views and possible
instances of the system.
Effectiveness
The effectiveness of a model may be defined along a number of
different parameters. For example, how well does the model
allow us to grasp the whole and identify its core attributes?
Does it manage to synthesize all of the different perspectives on
it? How faithful is it to the empirical phenomena? Does it stand
up to empirical testing? Moreover, can it predict future events?
All models contain assumptions and making them explicit is
important to effective modeling. Models only ever represent
some subset of all possible phenomena and thus have to make
certain assumptions about other elements and systems outside
of our focus of interest. Effective models make explicit the
assumptions that they entail.
We should ask how solid the model's foundational assumptions
are. That is, the assumptions it is based upon. Are they truly
self-evident solid assumptions, or are they contingent upon
certain conditions that may not always hold?
Model Limitations
Models are powerful tools in that they enable us to
conceptualize large systems that are beyond our immediate
faculties, but they do this by removing certain details. If the
model is not built properly it can blind us to important
information required to be successful.
Models constrain our perception, contextualizing, framing, and
conditioning what we see and don’t see. Poorly built models
that do not include all relevant perspectives and information can
blind us to what would otherwise be obvious. In a very literal
manner, models remove one from one’s senses in that they are
conceptually based. If they are not adequately built, they can
create nonsensical results.
When we use incomplete models to operate in the world, the
results may be, at best, only partially successful and, at worst,
potentially dangerous. Thus, it is desirable that we be explicit
about a model's limitations and work to develop more robust
models whose foundations are clearer, scope broader, and
better match the data.
Systems
Model
System Model
Environment

Elements

Input Output

Filter Process

Relations

Boundary

Entropy
Systems
In this section, we lay down the very basics of our
System language for describing systems by talking about
elements, relations and whole systems. A system
may be defined as a set of interacting or
interdependent elements forming an integrated
Elements whole.
Firstly a system is a group of parts, e.g. it is a
composite entity, being composed of a number
of things. In the language of systems theory, we
Relations call these parts, elements.
These parts are interconnected and
interdependent in some way, that is to say, there
is a set of relationships between the elements.
Through these relations the elements are
arranged in a particular way in order to perform
some collective function that defines the system
as a whole.
Elements
An element is the most basic unit within a system's
model. Elements are elemental, which means that they
are not constituted of subcomponents with respect to

Le¹
the system of interest. We can say that elements are
black boxes, meaning we do not look inside an
element to see how it works or what it is made of.
An element simply consists of some structure and
possibly a function. A stone is an element that has
structure but no apparent function. With respect to
the study of a whole ecosystem, we may see a plant as Element
an element within that system, as we do not need to
consider its internal workings. A bus may also be an
example of an element with respect to a transport
system. The bus consists of a static structure and a set
of mechanical processes that enable it to operate.
Sets
A system is a set of elements that are interrelated to
function together, thus not everything is a system. If we
have a group of elements that are not interconnected
and do not work together then this is not a system, it is
what we call a set; a simple set of elements.
An example of a set might be a pile of bricks or a
group of unassociated people. These parts are
independent and have not been designed to work
together thus we describe them by simply describing
the properties of each element in the set and that tells
us everything we need to know. There is nothing more
to the set than the simple sum of its elements.
Relations
The elements within a system are interconnected and
interdependent in some way, e.g., there is a set of
relationships between the elements. A relation between two
or more elements is defined as an interaction or connection
wherein the variables associated with one become
correlated with those of others within the relation.
For example, the light, pen, and cup on a desk do not form
a system as they are independent elements; when we
change the cup or pen, this will not change the other
elements. If there is no correlation between two variables,
then they are not interrelated. In contrast, a family forms a
system because there are a set of interrelations between the
members; if the state of one person changes significantly
this will change the state of others, thus they are
interdependent.
Type of Relations
These variable correlations may be positive or negative, meaning they can move in the
same direction or in opposite directions, depending upon the type of connection. A
negative correlation is a relationship between two variables in which one variable
increases as the other decreases and vice versa. For example, with two people trading
bananas their benefits are negatively correlated, if the seller charges more in the
exchange then they will benefit while the buyer will have to pay more. In contrast, a
positive correlation is a relationship between two variables in which both variables move in
the same direction.

Negative Positive
Correlation Correlation

+ - + +
Synergies
Synergies describe how two or more elements interact in a system in either a
constructive or destructive fashion. If the elements interact in such a fashion
that the combined effect is greater than the sum of their parts this is termed a
positive synergy. If the elements interact in such a fashion that the combined
effect is less than the sum of their parts this is termed a negative synergy.

Negative Synergy Positive Synergy

- +
Negative Synergies
A negative synergy is a destructive interaction between
elements; a relation of interference. A negative synergy
is when two elements interact and the combined effect
is less than the sum of their effects in isolation.

-
The relation between two drugs can be a negative one,
where when prescribed together they interfere with
each other resulting in an overall counter-productive
effect.
Another example might be two businesses within a
given market sector, they may engage in a competitive
relationship thus creating a dynamic of interference
between them. In contrast, they may choose to
cooperate and through this synergistic relation enhance
the overall state of the market, this would be a positive
synergy.
Positive Synergy
The term synergy comes from the Greek word
"synergia" meaning "working together”. A positive
synergy is the exchange of energy or resources
between elements in a constructer fashion where
they work together to perform a common function.
By working together through synergistic relations
the entire system may become more than the simple
+
sum of its parts in isolation.
The division of labor within many animal and human
communities could be cited as another example; ant
colonies and advanced market economies are
examples of synergistic relations where the net
result is greater than the product of the individual
elements acting in isolation.
Emergent System
A system is what emerges out of the interaction
Emergence between the elements when they work together as
an entirety. There forms a whole system with a
macro-scale structure that is an emergent property
of the organization of elements and through these
interrelations the elements can come to share some
common function.
For example, the human body is a system because
Synergies its organs - the system's elements - are
interconnected and interdependent in serving the
overall function of the body. In order for the whole
body to function as an entirety, each organ has to
be specifically designed in relation to the other
parts to achieve a synergy between them and the
emergence of the whole as a functional system.
Systems
Functioning
A Farm as a System

Input

Filter Process Output

Work

Entropy
Overview
A central aspect of systems modeling is to define the systems function. Systems perform
functions as an entirety and this defines much of how they are organized and operate. In
this section, we are going to build upon the model we have so far created to introduce
the process through which the system takes in inputs and maps these to outputs through
a set of stages.
Through a process, systems take in resources and perform a set of operations on them to
generate an output. The output of the system can be of benefit to other systems and its
environment - what we may call energy - or may be detrimental - what we call entropy.
Understanding and defining the systems processing is important in telling us what is a
functional system vs a dysfunctional system; what is of value and what is not of value.
To enable a system to perform effectively,
we must understand it - we must be able to
explain its behavior - and this requires being
aware of its function in the larger system of
which it is a part
- Russell L. Ackoff
Function
A function is a very broad and fundamental concept that is central to systems theory, it is also
used in many other domains being particularly important within mathematics and engineering.
A function is a process that transforms energy or resources from one state to another. There
are a number of key aspects to this process. We have a resource that is inputted, we have a
process that transforms these resources according to a set of instructions to create an output.

Energy
Input Process

Boundary
Entropy
Input
Inputs involve the capturing and assembling of elements that
enter the system to be processed. The water taken in by a
plant's roots is an input to a biological system, and the fuel
inputted to an airplane is an input to a mechanical system.
Any given system can only process a specific range of inputs.
What a system can and cannot process is defined by its
function. Biological systems process natural resources,
mechanical systems process fuels, information systems
process data, etc.
In this respect, systems exist in relation to their function and
what they can process; a plant exists in relation to the natural
environment because that is where it gets its resources from;
a hard drive exists in relation to a computer because that is
what it exchanges resources with.
Processing
Resources that are inputted are processed within the system.
A process is a series of actions performed upon the input in
order to achieve a particular end result, e.g., the output. A
process alters or changes the resources according to some
set of instructions. Systems contain some logic or
information as to how to transform their inputs into outputs.
The workings of a process is defined by an algorithm or set
of instructions that are performed upon the input in order to
produce the output. The function of running a factory or the
workings of a political system follows a certain logic that is
somewhat algorithmic in nature. In the case of the political
system, this is encoded in the constitution or in the factory's
production process design. From this, we can see how
systems have a certain logic that is defined by their
operations. Understanding this logic to the systems
operation is key to understanding why and how they behave.
Types of processes
The internal workings of a process can take many forms, from
simple to complex - from the simple washing of dishes to the
complex process through which a plant performs
photosynthesis. Although often represented in a linear fashion,
for simplification, processes are often nonlinear being cyclical;
feeding back on each other with the output from one process
being the input for another. Processes may be also nested
within larger processes or run parallel to them.
Functions may be unidirectional, meaning the function only
maps an input to an output, or bidirectional meaning it can also
invert this process to transform the output back to the input
through what is called an inverse function.
Many processes are essentially unidirectional requiring vastly or
even infinitely more energy to invert the function than was
required to perform it in the first place. The building of a Lego
brick house is an example of a function that can be easily
inverted and thus bidirectional.
Output
Ultimately there will be some energy or resources
produced by this process that travels across the
system boundary to be returned to its environment
and this is what is called the system’s output. One
way of understanding a function then is simply as
the difference between what goes into the system
and what comes out.
If we can see the internal workings of the system's
operation we can call it a "white box” system.
While a "black box" system is one that is viewed in
terms of its inputs and outputs, without any
knowledge of its internal workings. Black boxing
can be of great value to us as it helps to hide away
the complexity of the internal workings of the
system.
Energy & Entropy
The output to a system can take two qualitatively
different forms depending on if it is of value to its
environment or detrimental to its environment. An
output that is of value to other systems in enabling
them to do work we may term energy or a resource.
Energy can be understood as anything that provides
a system with the capacity to do work or to build up a
functional structure.
Energy
The opposite of energy is entropy, which is the
incapacity to perform work and a measurement of the
degree of disorder within a system. A dysfunctional
output that is detrimental to other systems may be
termed entropy. Entropy may be loosely equated to
the term waste. For example, a haymaking machine
may perform the function of producing bales of hay,

En
tro
but it may also produce noise pollution, which we

py
would term entropy. Entropy reduces the capacity of
other systems to function.
Efficiency
Efficiency is the ratio between the resources that a system
processes into a functional output of some energy resource
versus the output of entropy or waste. For example, many of
our engineered systems are measured in terms of this type of
efficiency, such as the energy efficiency of a light bulb or fuel
efficiency of a car.
Outside of engineering another example might be an
economy that takes in some amount of resources - natural,
human, financial, etc. - and generates both a functional output
in terms of developing the economy - better infrastructure,
more human capital, greater financial capital, etc. - but also
dissipates some of the resources inputted. The efficiency of
the overall system would then be the ratio between the two
that can be expressed as a rational number.
Consumption vs Production
The efficiency of the system's functioning defines whether the
system is efficient and productive or inefficient and dysfunctional. A
system operates through the input of some resources from its
environment with this input then being processed in one of two
ways; either productively processed or dissipated.
The system may perform a constructive function on the input thus
outputting a resource of a greater or higher potential energy back
to its environment. A function can be said to be productive if the
system takes in some resource from its environment and performs
work on this resource by transferring energy to it and thus
outputting a resource of greater value.
Inversely the system may perform a dissipative operation;
conserving the energy resource within the system's boundary and
outputting the resource at a lower state of potential energy. A
system can be said to be inefficient when the resource that was
inputted transfers its energy to the system; conserving this energy
within the system's boundary whilst outputting entropy to its
environment, e.g. political corruption.
Functional & Inert Regimes
Systems that are low in efficiency we may term "inert" which is
the incapacity to perform work. In this regime, a system
dissipates more energy than it converts to a functional output
and is thus defined by what it consumes. For example, Industrial
economies have come to be termed "consumer societies"
because they input large amounts of resources while producing
high levels of waste through dissipation.
As another example, a person may use the resources they
consume during a day to go to work and perform some function
within their society or they may stay at home playing computer
games. With respect to the individuals environment - the
economy - they have dissipated the resources they consumed
while returning waste back to their environment.
An efficient system occupies a functional regime defined more by
the function that it performs. For example, a person that works
hard will be define by the work that they do rather than what
they consume.
System
Environment
Overview
All systems have a boundary and operate within an environment. This environment
represents the sum total of other systems and input/output resources that the system
interacts with during its operation. Thus the environment consists of the sum total of
resources and systems that lie outside of the boundary of the system of interest and
interact with it providing its inputs and receive its outputs.
A system’s environment is primarily relative to it's functioning. A biological system
that requires the input and output of natural resources operates within the natural
environment. The political system of a nation operates within the context of that
society and the international political environment.
An environment is the broadest unit of analysis, representing the sum total of all
systems and interactions that we consider within any given model. As the environment
represents the sum total of the system’s interactions with other entities, it forms the
context to a system, i.e. where it is in relation to other systems that it interacts with.
Boundary

Environment

Exchange
Autonomous
Filter
System
System Boundary
Systems have limits, and these limits to a system we may define
as their boundary. The system boundary demarcates a limit to
the system's internal components, relations, and processes.
Internal to its boundary the system has some degree of integrity,
meaning the parts are working together and this integrity gives
the system a degree of autonomy.
If we take a small plant, for example, the parts to the plant are
all interrelated in performing its overall operations and through
this integration, the plant is able to exist autonomously - to
some degree - from other systems in its environment.
Boundaries may have a physical dimension but can’t always be
defined in physical terms, for example, we may be talking about
an information system or a social system. If we want to be able
to achieve sufficient generality to talk about all types of systems
- which is the aim of systems theory - then we need to
understand boundaries within this slightly more abstract
language of integrity and autonomy.
Autonomy
A system's boundary is then demarcated by where the
nexus of relations that enable it to function as an
integrated and autonomous whole reach their limit.
Beyond this, the system loses its autonomy and has to
interact with other systems and its environment.
A system is always dependent upon its environment in
some way. The more inefficient and consumptive the
system is the more dependent it is upon its environment
to provide it with the resources to operate, thus there is a
direct connection between systems functionality,
dependence, and autonomy.
The boundary to a nation-state is another example of
this; the nation’s border is only a boundary if, within this
boundary, public functions are integrated within the
national system as an entirety. By the nation functioning
as a whole, it can be autonomous from other nations.
Filtering
Any given system can only process a specific range of
inputs. The system boundary functions to filter inputs to
the system. These filters often function to prevent
damaging or harmful inputs while being receptive to those
that are beneficial to its functionality. For example, our
skin functions as the boundary to our body and the human
immune system as a filter to prevent harmful antigens
from entering.
Systems interact with other systems through protocols.
These are specific channels, mediums and rules through
which the system can successfully interoperate with other
systems. For example, as an English speaker we can
successfully interoperate with other English speakers
because we know the protocols of communications of this
language, however, many of us cannot successfully
communicate with Japanese people because we do not
know the protocols required for that interaction.
Open & Closed Systems
Within the language of systems theory, systems are said to
be open, closed or isolated. Open systems interface and
interact with their environment by receiving inputs and
delivering outputs via their boundary. With open systems
the boundaries are permeable, meaning that they may
permit the exchange of materials, energy, information or
ideas. Living systems are examples of open systems as they
must import and export energy and entropy to and from
their environment. Likewise, all complex systems are open
systems. Indeed, most of the systems we are concerned
with in our world are open, dynamic systems.
Closed systems have limited interaction with their
environment; a strong boundary condition that resists
exchange. An isolated system is more restrictive than a
closed system as it does not interact with its surroundings in
any way. The universe as an entirety might be an example of
an isolated system, but it is debatable as to whether such a
construct could exist in reality.
Acceptance & Resistance
A shop is an example of an open system as it is continuously
taking in new customers while others leave; receiving
supplies and removing waste, while also communicating with
other systems, such as suppliers and their bank. This high
rate of input and output to open systems makes them
dynamic; they are constantly changing and have to respond
to the changes within their environment.
Inversely, closed systems are more prone to resist
incorporating new inputs, and this resistance at their
boundary makes them more strongly defined by the static
properties of their boundary. By not adopting inputs, a
closed system ceases to properly serve a function within its
environment and may become deemed unnecessary to its
parent environment risking atrophy. However there is
nothing inherently positive or negative about a system being
closed or open, such claims are dependent on the context.
Hierarchical Organization
Systems that are complex exhibit many levels of
organization, from the very smallest to the largest levels.
The primary way that systems structure this complexity is
through the use of hierarchical abstraction. Almost all
complex systems exhibit hierarchical structure; whether we
are talking about physical systems, where atoms makeup
molecules which makeup substances and so on, or social
structures where individuals makeup organizations which
makeup societies, etc.
This hierarchical structure is achieved through
encapsulation where smaller more specific systems are
encapsulated within larger more general systems. For
example, the internal operations of each cell within our
body are encapsulated within a cell membrane, that
abstracts away the details through encapsulation. These
cells then are combined together into tissues and organs,
with each new level having new emergent properties and
functions.
Systems of Systems
In order to structure our language when talking about these
different levels of the system hierarchy we have five different
terms; elements, sub-systems, systems, systems of systems
and environments.
At the most basic level of the hierarchy are elements, which
are elemental, meaning they do not have constituent
components, we treat them as a whole. An electron is an
example of an element, we cannot look inside of it because it
is not made of any separate parts.
A subsystem is a set of elements, which make up a system. An
example of a subsystem might be the breaks in a car, they are
made up of elements but are also an integral part of a broader
system, the car. The car, which is a system of personal
mobility, is in turn part of a transportation system and we call
this level to our analysis a system-of-systems. Lastly, all of this
is encapsulated within our ultimate unit of analysis, which is
the system’s environment.
Micro-Macro
With each new hierarchical level to a system, new
functions and processes emerge on that level. In order for
those functions to be fulfilled properly, the whole
organization needs to in some way assert a downward
effect on the subsystems to ensure they operate in the
way that is required to fulfill the higher-level functions,
while at the same time, the parts have their own goals thus
emerging a complex dynamic between bottom-up and
top-down ordering. This dynamic emerges within all
complex systems.
For example, in society, we have legal systems that
regulate individuals and groups to ensure they comply
with rules that enable the whole of society to operate
successfully. At the same time, those individuals wish to
retain their autonomy and freedom to pursue their own
ends. The result is a control or regulatory dynamic
emerging between the higher-level processes and the
more basic sub-units.
System
Dynamics
Overview

System dynamics is a branch of systems theory that tries to model and understand the
dynamic behavior of complex systems. It deals with internal feedback loops and time
delays that affect the behavior of the entire system. Stocks and flow diagrams are the
foundation of system dynamics modeling as they let us look at and analyze the dynamic
flows taking place within a system; whether this is information flows, the movement of
products through a supply chain, or the flow of money through a financial system.
The key elements of system dynamics are feedback loops, stocks and flows. Systems
thinking looks for the interplay between elements, that is the feedback loops through
which elements are interconnected in effecting a joint outcome.
By modeling the interactions and thus visualizing the feedback loops, a causal loop
diagram reveals the structure of a system. By understanding not only the structure to
these relations but also the nature of those relations it becomes possible to model and
simulate a system’s behavior over a certain time period.
Stocks Flows
A system stock is a store that can be Flows are entities that make stocks increase
quantified, e.g. a pile of sand or data in a or decrease, like a tap or drain affects the
database, the books in a bookstore. As a level of water in a bathtub. For example, an
principle stocks generally change slowly, underground gold deposit is a stock, out of
even when the flows into or out of them which comes a flow of ore through mining.
change suddenly. Therefore, stocks act Flows are filling and draining, deposits and
as delays or buffers in systems. withdrawals, growth and decay.
Stocks and Flows
Helps us to identify blockages and flows in the system

Stock

Inflow Outflow
Illustration
Diagram of a stock of minerals depleted by mining

Mineral
Deposits
Mining
Stock vs Flow
At first attempt it may not be too simple to distingue stocks from flows. One way of
distinguishing a flow from a stock is to ask what would happen in the system if time were to
halt. Stocks, which are accumulations, would go on existing, while flows, in contrary, would
disappear, because they are actions.
For example, at any given moment, the money in your savings account, the attendees at a
sports game or the number of goods in a warehouse are measurable and, thus, are stocks; they
would continue to exist if time were to stop. On the other hand, the bank’s interest payment
per day, the production rate of units per hour, and the movement of people in and out of a
sports game, because these are flows and thus relative to time, they would no longer exist.
Illustration
A stock of lumber linked to a stock of trees in a forest

Logging
Lumber
sales
Lumber
Inventory

Wood
in living
Tree trees Tree
growth deaths
Behavior Over Time
Systems thinkers use graphs of system behavior to understand
trends over time, rather than focusing attention on individual
events. People also use behavior over time graphs to learn
whether the system is approaching a goal or a limit, and if so,
how soon or far away.
A behavior over time graph is a line diagram that shows how
something has changed over a period of time. It creates a
visual representation of what is happening in a system. Time is
shown along the horizontal axis and the sizes of the variables
are shown in the vertical dimension.

The aim is typically to gain a qualitative impression of the


changes taking place rather than a detailed quantitative
analysis. The pattern, captured by the form of the variable
line, is important, as are the points at which that line changes
shape or direction, while the precise numbers on the axes are
often less important.
Principles

Rising Falling Stable


As long as the sum of all inflows As long as the sum of all outflows If the sum of all outflows equals
exceeds the sum of all outflows, exceeds the sum of all inflows, the sum of all inflows, the stock
the level of the stock will rise. the level of the stock will fall. level will not change; it will be
held in dynamic equilibrium.
Stock and Flow Delays
The presence of stocks allows inflows and outflows to be
independent of each other and temporarily out of balance with
each other, creating delays. The time lags that come from slowly
changing stocks can cause problems in systems, but they also can
be sources of stability, thus both beneficial and detrimental. The
time lags imposed by stocks allow room to maneuver, to
experiment, and to revise policies that aren’t working. Soil that has
accumulated over centuries rarely erodes all at once, this gives us
time to think of alternative agricultural practices before the critical
point of failure.
Time lags often lead to "overshoot" which is the occurrence of a
signal or function exceeding its target. For example, we might think
of a town that has discover gold under its ground. When the gold is
abundant, the population grows quickly. However, as the
population grows it depletes the supply of gold. When gold
becomes scarce, the population is stranded without a functioning
economy and drops rapidly as people leave to search for work at
other locations. Thus stock and flow delays can lead to crisis states
due to overshoot.
Conclusion
Conclusion
Systems thinking is a holistic paradigm, which means that we are trying to understand
the parts in relation to the whole. Thus in this guide to modeling systems, we have
started from the most basic elementary parts and worked up to get to the system and
its environment as a whole; the most complex level.
By interconnecting parts, we formed systems wherein the parts become interdependent
in effecting each other and the state of the whole system they form part of. We looked
at positive and negative synergies and how they can lead to emergence.
We then added a function to the system, where processes take in inputs and transform
them into outputs. The system's output can be constructive - energy - or destructive to
its environment - entropy. We then started to look at the system in relation to other
systems and the overall environment; where the system boundary defines its autonomy
and integrity.
The final section dealt with the dynamic behavior of a system within its environment and
how feedback processes drive different patterns of development. We looked at positive
and negative feedback as drivers of sustainable or unsustainable development and the
systems control methods used to regulate these processes and maintain homeostasis.
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