Predictive Maintenance Explained (reliableplant.

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Predictive Maintenance Explained

Predictive maintenance (PdM) is maintenance that monitors the performance
and condition of equipment during normal operation to reduce the likelihood
of failures. Also known as condition-based maintenance, predictive
maintenance has been utilized in the industrial world since the 1990s.
Yet, in reality, predictive maintenance is much older, although its history is
not formally documented. According to Control Engineering, “The start of
predictive maintenance (PdM) may have been when a mechanic first put his
ear to the handle of a screwdriver, touched the other end to a machine, and
pronounced that it sounded like a bearing was going bad.”
The goal of predictive maintenance is the ability to first predict when
equipment failure could occur (based on certain factors), followed by
preventing the failure through regularly scheduled and corrective
maintenance.
Predictive maintenance cannot exist without condition monitoring, which is
defined as the continuous monitoring of machines during process conditions
to ensure the optimal use of machines. There are three facets of condition
monitoring: online, periodic and remote. Online condition monitoring is
defined as the continuous monitoring of machines or production processes,
with data collected on critical speeds and changing spindle positions
(“Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machines,” Istec International).
Periodic condition monitoring, which is achieved through vibration analysis,
“gives insight into changing vibration behavior of installations” with a trend
analysis (“Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machines,” Istec International).
Lastly, remote condition monitoring, as its name suggests, allows equipment
to be monitored from a remote location, with data transmitted for analysis.
Before establishing a predictive maintenance program, an organization must
take several steps, which include:
 Analyzing the need and equipment history
 Reviewing any and all available records on downtime, equipment
defects, losses (yield and energy), potential regulation fines and
workplace safety
 Establishing definitions and concepts as well as building a case for PdM
 Educating major stakeholders and getting buy-in
 Completing an equipment inventory and appraising the current
equipment conditions
 Selecting equipment for the program’s initial implementation
 Developing system details based on individual systems and/or
components
 Evaluating any existing preventive or predictive maintenance
  Deciding which systems to include and what to inspect for
 Defining the program’s criticality and establishing PdM frequency and
schedule type
 Evaluating the anticipated resources and assigning personnel roles and
responsibilities
 Organizing the program and integrating it into the scheduling system
 Educating and obtaining buy-in from operations and maintenance
 Upgrading equipment and conducting training
 Creating a computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS)
Around 65 percent of maintenance personnel surveyed in Reliable Plant's
2019 Predictive Maintenance Survey said they use predictive maintenance.
When implemented and executed, predictive maintenance is a cornerstone of
a successful maintenance program.

The Difference Between Predictive

Maintenance and Preventive
Maintenance
While many maintenance programs use a bit of both, there are several
differences between predictive maintenance and preventive
maintenance. Preventive maintenance has involved inspecting and
performing maintenance on machinery, regardless of whether the equipment
was in need of maintenance. This maintenance schedule is based on either a
usage or time trigger. For example, a heating unit is serviced every year
before winter, or a car requires scheduled maintenance every 5,000 miles.
Also, preventive maintenance does not demand the condition monitoring
component that predictive maintenance does. By not requiring condition
monitoring, a preventive maintenance program does not involve as much
capital investment in technology and training. Lastly, many preventive
maintenance programs need manual data-gathering and analyzing.
While preventive maintenance is determined by using the average life cycle
of an asset, predictive maintenance is identified based on preset and
predetermined conditions of specific pieces of equipment, utilizing different
technologies. Predictive maintenance also requires more investments in
people, training and equipment than preventive maintenance, but the time
savings and cost savings will be greater in the long run.

Advantages and Disadvantages of

Predictive Maintenance
As mentioned, the advantages of predictive maintenance are tremendous
from a cost-savings perspective and include minimizing planned downtime,
maximizing equipment lifespan, optimizing employee productivity and
increasing revenue (Immerman, “The Impact of Predictive Maintenance on
Manufacturing”). Another advantage of predictive maintenance is its ability to
transform both a maintenance team and an organization, as implementing
PdM allows asset managers to improve outcomes and better balance
priorities such as profitability and reliability.
One of the main disadvantages of predictive maintenance is the amount of
time it takes to assess and implement a PdM schedule. With predictive
maintenance being a complex initiative, plant personnel must be trained on
how to not only use the equipment but also how to interpret the analytics (or
data).
While many organizations choose to train existing employees on predictive
maintenance, there are condition-monitoring contractors who specialize in
performing the required labor and analyzing the results for a facility. In
addition to the training costs, predictive maintenance involves an investment
in maintenance tools and systems. This cost has decreased over time with
the introduction of cloud-based technology.

Predictive Maintenance vs. Inspection

for Defects
For some time, a considerable amount of confusion has existed over the
appropriate way to inspect for the presence of a given failure mode. Should I
perform some type of sensory inspection? Should I perform some type of
quantitative inspection? Should I apply one or more condition-monitoring
technologies? Should I apply some combination of these techniques to
maximize the conditional probability of finding the defect?
How do I identify the presence of a key defect in such a way as to maximize
the amount of time my planning department has to develop the job
procedures, create work orders, order the parts, and schedule and complete
the work before the conditional probability of failure becomes too high? An
explanation of the types of inspections and how they complement one
another goes a long way toward clarifying which ones are most appropriate.

Types of Defect Inspection Techniques

Sensory inspections have long been considered the backbone of any good
inspection program and maintenance work. It was believed that sending
someone around often enough to inspect for problems with machinery would
result in identifying defects in plenty of time to mitigate unplanned
downtime. The inspector would use sight, sound and touch to determine if
anything had changed since the last inspection. Any change would be
recorded, reported and investigated by a craftsperson on the next scheduled
outage.
While there is a tremendous amount of benefit to sending someone around to
perform inspections, there are so many holes in this strategy that it should
never be considered the backbone of the inspection program. Sensory
inspections typically only identify the most obvious and drastic of problems. It
is all but impossible for a sensory inspection to identify early, internal defects
in machines.
Enhanced Sensory Inspections
Enhanced sensory inspections fill that gray zone. They are both a sensory
inspection and a quantitative measurement with condition-monitoring
characteristics. These inspections use instruments like spot radiometers,
strobe lights, handheld vibration pens and simple ultrasonic meters to detect
defects further up the P-F curve. While these tools multiply the power of the
human senses, they have their limit. These simple tools do allow for different
failure modes to be detected, but they shouldn't replace a comprehensive
condition-monitoring program.

Quantitative Inspections
Quantitative inspections can provide useful information when it comes to
generating data for trending and determining the characteristic life of a
failure mode. Quantitative inspections need someone to measure something.
Very common quantitative inspections include measuring the temperature of
a seal on a pump or measuring the backplate clearance on a pump impeller.
These measurements provide data to the planner and engineer and help
determine the need for further maintenance action.
When designed properly, a quantitative inspection procedure details limits
and typically expected measurements. Any inspection that requires someone
to measure something should have the minimum, maximum and typical
values, with conditional tasks defined for when the limits are exceeded. But a
quantitative inspection performed at the proper inspection frequency rarely
will have a measurement that exceeds the limits.

Predictive Maintenance as a Defect Inspection

Technique
Condition monitoring, also known as predictive maintenance (PdM), is the
application of condition-based monitoring technologies, statistical process
control or equipment performance for early detection and elimination of
equipment defects that could lead to unplanned downtime or unnecessary
expenditures.
And generally speaking, you must conduct this while the equipment is in
normal operation, with little to no process interruption. The purpose of these
tools (vibration analysis, infrared thermography, motor circuit analysis, etc.)
is to find defects not found through previously available inspections methods,
while the machine is in normal operation.
Taking advantage of the available technology lets you assess the condition of
parts and the presence of defects heretofore impossible to detect. An
example of the advantage these tools have in the area of quantitative
inspections or sensory inspections is the use of vibration analysis to
determine the presence of a defect on a rolling element bearing.
Previously, mechanics and millwrights relied on "lift checks" to determine the
amount of clearance in a bearing. Unfortunately, this technique is only valid
for bearing defects that resulted in the removal of material from the
raceways of the bearing; this bearing would be pretty bad off to have
thousandths of inches of play in it.
Sub-surface fatigue is easily seen with vibration analysis and at this point in
the failure propagation has resulted in no removal of material from the
raceways. This is the most common example of the advantages of predictive
maintenance technologies.
There are different types of defect inspection techniques that can be brought
to bear on a machine, and each has its advantages and disadvantages. Yet,
these techniques aren't exact replacements for each other. Each determines
the presence of the defect at different places along the P-F curve and, as a
result, each gives the planning function different amounts of time to respond
to the defect.
A failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) can help you
determine which inspection techniques should be applied, how often and with
what degree of redundancy. Remember, the trick is to balance risk with rigor.
How much risk you are willing to take with a given failure mode coupled with
how much you are willing to pay for the inspection determines the
appropriate strategy.

Predictive Maintenance Technologies

As the name suggests, the goal of predictive maintenance is to predict when
maintenance is needed. While there is no Magic 8-Ball, there are several
condition-monitoring devices and techniques that can be employed for
effectively predicting failure, as well as providing advanced warning for
maintenance on the horizon.

Infrared Thermography
Known as a nondestructive or nonintrusive testing technology, infrared (IR)
thermography in predictive maintenance is widely used. With IR cameras,
personnel are able to detect high temperatures (aka, hotspots) in equipment.
Worn components, including malfunctioning electrical circuits, typically emit
heat that will display as a hotspot on a thermal image (“Predictive
Maintenance,” Lean Manufacturing Tools).
By quickly identifying hotspots, infrared inspections can pinpoint problems
and help avoid costly repairs and downtime. Infrared technology is
considered “one of the most versatile predictive maintenance technologies
available … used to study everything from individual components of
machinery to plant systems, roofs and even entire buildings,” (Control
Engineering). More uses for infrared technology include detecting thermal
anomalies and problems with process systems relying on heat retention
and/or transfer.

Acoustic Monitoring
With acoustic technologies, personnel can detect gas, liquid or vacuum leaks
in equipment on a sonic or ultrasonic level. Considered less expensive than
ultrasonic technology, sonic technology is useful on mechanical equipment
but limited in its use. Ultrasonic technology has more applications and is
more reliable in detecting mechanical issues.
It allows a technician to “hear friction and stress in rotating machinery, which
can predict deterioration earlier than conventional techniques” (“Predictive
Maintenance,” Wikipedia) by using instrumentation to convert sounds in the
20- to 100-kilohertz range into “auditory or visual signals that can be
heard/seen by a technician. These high frequencies are the exact frequencies
generated by worn and underlubricated bearings, faulty electrical equipment,
leaky valves, etc.” (Wright, “How to Leverage Multiple Predictive
Maintenance Technologies”).
While both sonic and ultrasonic testing can be expensive, there is another
form of acoustic monitoring that is quite affordable: a technician’s ears.
“Something as simple as detecting an oil leak or a gearbox that sounds weird
could and often does lead to the prevention of a catastrophic failure, avoiding
tens of thousands of dollars in losses,” (Wright, “How to Leverage Multiple
Predictive Maintenance Technologies”).

Vibration Analysis
Employed primarily for high-speed rotating equipment, vibration
analysis allows a technician to monitor a machine’s vibrations by using a
handheld analyzer or real-time sensors built into the equipment. A machine
operating in peak condition exhibits a particular vibration pattern. When
components like bearings and shafts begin to wear and fail, the machine will
begin to generate a different vibration pattern. By proactively monitoring the
equipment, a trained technician can compare the readings against known
failure modes to determine where problems are occurring.
Among the issues that can be detected with vibration analysis
include misalignment, bent shafts, unbalanced components, loose
mechanical components and motor problems.
Ensuring technicians are trained will be vital, as it can be difficult to predict
machine failure utilizing vibration analysis. Many organizations offer in-depth
training to prepare individuals for certification as vibration analysts. The only
downside to using vibration analysis is the cost associated in implementing it
with a PdM program.

Oil Analysis
Oil analysis is an effective tool in predictive maintenance. It enables a
technician to check the oil’s condition and determine if other particles and
contaminants are present. Some oil analysis tests can reveal the viscosity,
presence of water or wear metals, particle counts, and the acid number or
base number.
One of the benefits of using oil analysis is that the initial test(s) will set a
baseline for a new machine. When done properly, oil analysis can yield a
myriad of results to help make predictive maintenance successful.

Other Technologies
Along with these techniques, facilities may use other technologies such as
motor condition analysis, which details the operating and running condition of
motors; and eddy current analysis, which identifies changes in tube wall
thickness within centrifugal chillers and boiler systems. Borescope
inspections, CMMS, data integration and condition monitoring can also help
facilitate predictive maintenance. While there are several different
technologies to aid in your PdM efforts, it is vital to choose the right one to
ensure success.

Business Case for Predictive

Maintenance
To realize return on capital investments and keep machines running at peak
efficiency, facilities must place a greater emphasis on predictive
maintenance. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Unplanned downtime
costs industrial manufacturers an estimated $50 billion annually. Equipment
failure is the cause of 42 percent of this unplanned downtime. Unplanned
outages result in excessive maintenance, repair and equipment
replacement.”
As operations and management are pushed toward reducing costs and
increasing productivity, the need for predictive maintenance becomes clear,
since it is difficult to make any cost-effective, long-term decisions for a
facility.
The value of predictive maintenance comes from a cost-saving and/or time-
saving approach, as maintenance is only performed when needed. In fact,
several studies by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy
Management Program found that a properly functioning predictive
maintenance program provides savings ranging from 30-40 percent over
reactive maintenance, and 8-12 percent over preventative maintenance.
For a PdM strategy to be successful, several criteria must be considered and
met. First, the commitment should come from the top down. The entire
organization must be committed to making predictive maintenance a
mandated part of the normal schedules. All process operators must also be
educated and involved in performing the required maintenance checks. In
addition, the entire organization needs to understand the actual cost and
repercussions of poor maintenance. Finally, PdM procedures must be
implemented immediately in order for the organization to start reaping the
benefits.
While many recognize the importance of utilizing predictive maintenance for
high-dollar machines, PdM is also viable for monitoring smaller, everyday
assets such as coffee machines, printers, postage meters and more. In
reality, an entire facility can benefit from implementing predictive
maintenance.

Predictive Maintenance Applications

The biggest application for predictive maintenance is in the manufacturing
sector. As manufacturing plants continue to face demand to increase
productivity, several maintenance strategies have been created and
implemented. However, a majority of these have been reactive. Many
facilities possess a mindset of “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.” Unfortunately,
this mindset contributes to unplanned maintenance and downtime.
As discussed previously, facilities began implementing predictive
maintenance in the early 1990s. Back then, “the lack of availability of sensors
generating data as well as a lack of computational resources for gathering
and analyzing the data made it difficult to implement PdM” (“Predictive
Maintenance in Manufacturing Overview,” Microsoft Azure).
With the introduction of the internet of things (IoT), machine learning, cloud
computing and big data analytics, the manufacturing industry has moved
forward in implementing predictive maintenance, resulting in increased
uptime and quality control, optimization of maintenance routes, improved
worker safety and greater productivity. As manufacturers work with tight
margins and timeframes, the thought of unscheduled downtime has become
undesirable. Predictive maintenance can offer a solution.
Another application for PdM is in the railway sector, particularly as it relates
to the rail industry’s digital transformation. With trains having a high initial
investment, there is a keen focus on keeping them in service as long as
possible. Predictive maintenance enables rail companies to get the most
value out of their fleet of trains through a variety of technologies and
software that reduce operating costs and extend the fleet’s lifetime.
Within the railway sector, predictive maintenance is utilized to detect
problems with linear, fixed and mobile assets; improve safety and track void
detection through vehicle cab-based monitoring systems; and identify the
type of track asset under which the void is located, as well as provide an
indication of the void’s severity.
According to an article in MaintWorld, “In the future, reliable railway
maintenance is expected to rely upon smart transportation systems and
interconnected solutions such as predictive maintenance and integrated
security tools in order to improve critical issues like safety, delays and overall
system capacity” (Peycheva, “Railway Goes Smart with Predictive
Maintenance and Industry 4.0 CMMS”).
While traditionally slow to modernize its maintenance systems, the oil and
gas industry is becoming a major proponent of predictive maintenance. Each
day, oil and gas companies collect massive amounts of data through sensors
– particularly wireless sensors – in oil fields around the world. As oil and gas
operations become more complex, visibility into the equipment’s condition
becomes more difficult, especially in remote, offshore and deep-water
locations.
In a 2015 white paper, MapR Technologies Inc. stated, “Oil and gas
companies have a major opportunity to increase efficiency and reduce
operational costs through better asset tracking and predictive maintenance.”
Predictive maintenance could be seen as a competitive advantage for oil and
gas companies as well as the related service businesses, particularly during
times of a recession when organizations are forced to find ways to work more
efficiently and effectively. Of course, predictive maintenance does not just
pertain to the manufacturing, rail, and oil and gas industries. In other
applications, PdM is used to:
 Help prevent utility outages with the help of drones and sensors that
map utility networks
 Detect a temperature decline in a steam pipeline, indicating a potential
pressure leak
 Capture increased temperatures in electrical panels to prevent
component failures
 Measure supply-side and demand-side power at a common coupling
point for monitoring power consumption
 Locate overloads in electrical panels
 Identify motor amperage spikes or overheating from bad bearings or
insultation breakdowns
 Find three-phase power imbalances from harmonic distortion,
overloads, degradation or failure of one or more phases

IIoT and PdM Integration

One of the most important factors – if not the most important factor – in a
successful predictive maintenance program is the use and integration of
the industrial internet of things (IIoT). According to a report by Deloitte, “the
Internet of Things (IoT) is perhaps the biggest piece of the PdM puzzle … IoT
translates physical actions from machines into digital signals using sensors
such as temperature, vibration or conductivity … Once the physical actions
have been translated into digital signals via sensors, they are processed,
aggregated and analyzed. With the affordability of bandwidth and storage,
massive amounts of data can be transmitted to give not only a full picture of
assets in a single plant, but of an entire production network” (Coleman et al.,
“Predictive Maintenance and the Smart Factory”).
To be successful, predictive maintenance relies on sensors for collecting and
analyzing data from various sources, such as a CMMS and critical equipment
sensors. Using this data, the IIoT is able to create “advanced prediction
models and analytical tools to predict failures and address them proactively.
Additionally, over time, new machine-learning technology can increase the
accuracy of the predictive algorithms, leading to even better performance”
(Coleman et al., “Predictive Maintenance and the Smart Factory”).
When paired with predictive maintenance, the IIoT has the ability to catch
equipment failures in advance. With the arrival of Industry 4.0 in the
manufacturing realm, facilities are eager to utilize the IIoT to gain better
insights into operations.

Predictive Maintenance and Return on

Investment
Implementing predictive maintenance requires a significant investment in
money, personnel and education. While these initial investments might seem
daunting to an organization, predictive maintenance’s return on investment
(ROI) far outweighs any upfront costs.
According to a recent report by Deloitte, several facilities have seen a 5-10
percent cost savings in operations and maintenance, repair and operations
(MRO) material spend; a 5-10 percent reduction in overall maintenance costs;
and reduced inventory-carrying costs. Further data from the U.S. Department
of Energy also shows that implementing a functional PdM program has the
potential to yield a tenfold increase in ROI, a 25-30 percent reduction in
maintenance costs, a 70-75 percent decrease in breakdowns and a 35-45
percent reduction in downtime.
“As far as maintenance costs are concerned, preventive maintenance costs
$13 hourly pay per annum while predictive maintenance costs $9 hourly pay
per annum, making predictive maintenance a cheaper option” (Ulbert, “The
Difference Between Predictive Maintenance and Preventive Maintenance”).

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