Manpower Planning and Resourcing Unit 2

Unit 2 Manpower Forecasting

Structure
2.1 Introduction
Objectives
2.2 Forecasting
2.3 Necessity for Forecasting
2.4 Steps in Forecasting
2.5 Demand Forecasting and Supply Forecasting
Demand Forecasting
Supply Forecasting
Internal Supply
External Supply
2.6 Demand Forecasting Techniques
Expert Forecasts
Trend Analysis
Work Study Technique
Managerial Judgment Technique
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Markov Analysis
Statistical Judgment Technique
2.7 Forecasting Accuracy
2.8 Benefits of Forecasting
2.9 Summary
2.10 Terminal Questions
2.11 Answers

2.1 Introduction
According to Lewis Mumford, “If we do not take the time to review the past
we shall not have sufficient insight to understand the present or command
the future: for the past never leaves us, and the future is already here.”
Manpower forecasting is the first step or feature of the entire manpower
planning activity. The HR manager foresees the demand and supply of
different types of manpower resources in the firm. In simple words the basic
idea is to see where or in which area there is a shortage or surplus of
human requirement. Forecasting is the process of making judgments about

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events whose actual outcomes have not been seen. We could use a word
like prediction which is similar, but a more general term. E.g. a retail
showroom may need thirty more sales employees during the one-month
sale period.
Change is the mantra of today. Organizations operate in these changing
environments. The effect of new technology, increasing demands of
customers, political factors and others, lead retailers to transform their
products, their services, and their internal procedures on a continuous basis.
These ever changing policies and techniques imply new ways of working,
new job contents and other qualifications needed to carry out the
organization‟s functions. For an organization to survive and be successful in
these challenging times, a long-term policy is much needed to achieve their
goals and objectives.
The question is if an organization that tries to implement a new policy, does
it have the right employees to be able support and develop that policy?
Having the right number of skilled people at the right time to carry out the
organization‟s work is important. The success of a retail organization
depends heavily on the availability of qualified and competent employees. It
is important for an organization to have an insight into the characteristics of
its employees and into the impact of changes in policy on its employees. It
can be seen that there is often a mismatch between the business strategy of
an organization and the human resources required.
There are various methods in forecasting. The one that is most suitable for a
retail organization needs to be identified and followed. This unit familiarizes
you with the importance of manpower forecasting, different methods and
techniques.

Objectives
After reading this chapter you will be able to:
 Define manpower forecasting
 State demand forecasting and supply forecasting
 Tell different techniques of forecasting
 Discuss benefits of forecasting.

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2.2 Forecasting
Business dictionary defines Manpower Forecasting as: “The prediction of
future levels of demand for, and supply of, workers and skills at
organizational, regional, or national level. A variety of techniques are used in
manpower forecasting, including the statistical analysis of current trends and
the use of mathematical models. At national level, these include the analysis
of census statistics; at organizational level, projections of future
requirements may be made from sales and production figures. Manpower
forecasting forms a part of manpower planning process.”
Forecasting is the process by which retail organizations think and prepare
for the future. It includes forecasting the future outcome of various business
decisions. This involves the future of the business as a whole, the future of
an existing or proposed product or product line, and the future of the retail
organization in which the business operates. Forecasting answers important
questions such as:
 How much profit will the business make over a period of one year?
 How much demand is created for a product or service?
 How much will it cost to produce the product or offer the service?
 How much money will the firm or organization need to borrow?
 How and when will these borrowed funds be repaid by the firm?

2.3 Necessity for Forecasting

Businesses enterprises must understand the necessity of forecasting and
use forecasting to answer these important questions. This helps the retail
organizations to prepare for the future. It also helps in making future plans
that will lead to a financially successful business.
Forecasting is also important when it comes to developing new products or
new product lines. It helps management decide whether the product or
product line will be successful. Forecasting prevents the company from
spending time and money developing, manufacturing, and marketing a
product that will fail.
Knowing the purpose of the forecast will help to answer additional questions
such as the following:
 What is being forecasted? – events, trends, variables, technology

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 What is the level of focus – focus on a single product or a whole line,

focus on a single retail organization or all retail organizations.
 How often is forecasting conducted? – daily, weekly, monthly, annually
 What methods are used to reflect the decisions needed to be taken by
management?
 What is the availability of resources to make decisions? – lead-time,
staff, relevant data, budget, etc
 What are the types of mistakes that could occur and what will they cost
the retailers?

Self Assessment Questions

1. Forecasting is also important when it comes to developing
______________ or _______________.
2. Manpower forecasting forms a part of _______________.

2.4 Steps in Forecasting

Successful manpower planning involves only two critical steps.
1. Estimating the demand forecast for manpower accurately
2. Ensuring the supply forecast for manpower meets the demand forecast

2.5 Demand Forecasting and Supply Forecasting

Demand forecasting and supply forecasting go hand in hand.
2.5.1 Demand Forecasting
Demand forecasting is a process of evaluating the quality and quantity
(number) of employees a firm or organization requires to meet its future
needs. A forecast could be a long-term or a short-term plan depending on
the activity levels for each function and departments. There are several
internal and external factors to be considered in demand forecasting.
 Internal factors include budget constraints, production levels, new products
and services.
 External factors include competition from other firms; it could be from the
domestic or international firms, economic value, changes in technology etc.
A few good reasons to conduct demand forecasting are:
 Determine the jobs necessary for offering services.

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 Determine the staff required for future needs.

 Determine the correct staffing levels in different parts of the firm or
organization.
 Determine the shortage of employees when and where they are needed
the most.
2.5.2 Supply Forecasting
Demand analysis provides the manager the means of evaluating the
number and kind of employees that will be required by the firm or
organization. The only logical next step for the management to do is to
determine if it will be able to provide the number of required employees and
the sources. This information is supplied by supply forecasting.
Supply forecasting measures the number of employees available within or
outside the firm or organization. It also has to keep absenteeism, shift
changes, number of working hours, promotions etc in mind.
Valid reasons for making supply forecasting are:
 It helps to decide the number of employees and positions that are
available for further need.
 It helps to evaluate the present staffing levels in different parts of the
firm or organization.
 It helps to prevent a shortage of employees when and where they are
needed the most.
 It helps to match the future requirement with the job specification.
Hence demand and supply forecasting are very essential to firms and
organizations as it then helps them to decide between the various
forecasting methods to be chosen.
Based on the demand forecast the sourcing team of HR identifies the
sources of supply of manpower. Broadly speaking two key sources of supply
of manpower exist. They are:
 Internal Supply
 External Supply
2.5.3 Internal Supply
Internal supply options are employees moving up the ladder by way of
promotions. Promotions occur usually in an organization at a certain
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periodicity. Once in six months based on the half yearly performance

appraisals process. The other method is that the organization posts internal
job posting. The eligibility criteria, for employees to apply for such a job
posting is defined such that it only promotes meritocracy and length of
service.
The other internal supply option is when employees are transferred from
other departments or locations where there may be excess staff, to a
department which has a dearth of quality resources. This process is also
called transfer. Transfers are also usually announced at a certain periodicity.
It could be quarterly. If it is annually done, it may also align with the starting
of schools for a new academic year. However, business pressures today are
so severe, that such practices seem to be fading away at least in private
enterprises. Only organizations with highly stable operations can plan and
execute as per plan.
2.5.4 External Supply
External supply options could be the following:
 From the same industry
 From different related industries
 From unrelated industries
 From the same city
 From peripheral cities
 From metros
 From across the country
 From rural parts with good colleges
 From dying public sector units
 From other companies which are getting shut down
External supply sources may also required companies to reconsider their
location strategy. If there is a large pool of resources based in a location,
where the organization can relocate to or add a branch, then it would save
the company huge costs in terms of relocation expenses and paying higher
salaries. Candidates joining in home location may be able to accept jobs at
comparatively lower salaries than existing in a city/metro.

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Self Assessment Questions

3. _________ and _______ forecasting are very essential to firms and
organizations as it then helps them to decide between the various
forecasting methods to be chosen.
4. Demand forecasting is a process of evaluating the ________ and
________ (number) of employees a firm or organization requires to
meet its future needs.
5. ___________ forecasting measures the number of employees
available within or outside the firm or organization.
6. The two key sources of supply of manpower are __________ and
___________.
7. Based on the demand forecast the sourcing team of HR identifies the
sources of supply of _________.

2.6 Demand Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting is an expensive way to help a company plan and prepare for the
future years. Forecasting is not fortune telling; it is but an educated guess of
how much manpower will be required and utilized by a firm or organization. It
is a tool used to help in budgeting and allocating finances or hiring employees
as perfectly as possible. One of the important features of forecasting is the
quality of manpower resources (knowledge, skill, values and competency,
capacity etc) as well as the quantity of manpower resources.
There is no right way of forecasting, but there are many different types of
forecasting methods. Each one is specifically planned and designed to help
different retail organization and it is up to each of them to choose the model
which is best and most appropriate for them.
Manpower planning is done based on the manpower forecasts. The
common manpower forecasting techniques are:
2.6.1 Expert Forecasts
This is a group forecasting method in which experts present their
independently developed forecasts to the group. However, the experts do
not meet each other. The group keeps refining their forecasts until a group
consensus is reached. This is called as the Delphi technique. In this method
managers estimate future manpower requirements based on their
experience and judgment.
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2.6.2 Trend Analysis

This technique requires studying the past data of an organization. Based on the
past forecast, utilization and requirement actually experienced in the business,
the future forecast is made. For example, if an organization had 12 secretaries
in the firm and this number were increasing by 1 secretary every year for the
last 4 years. Then the trend analysis would forecast a requirement of 13
secretaries for the following year. That is one additional secretary for the year.
Past data is used to make future predictions. Known or Independent
variables are used for predicting unknown or dependent variables, using the
trend equation called “Predictive analysis”. Based on trend equation, we find
„Line of Best Fit‟ and then it is projected in a scatter diagram, dividing points
equally on both sides.
The time series analysis has three goals: forecasting (also called
predicting), modeling, and characterization. The logical order in which to
tackle these three goals depends on the key objective. The idea of deciding
the order is to ensure that one task leads to another and /or justifies the
other tasks. Sometimes the objective is getting better forecasts. Then the
order is forecasting, modeling and characterization. Sometimes the
objective is to understand and explain what is going on. Then modeling is
the key, though out-of-sample forecasting may be used to test any model.
Often modeling and forecasting proceed in an iterative way and there is no
'logical order' in the broader sense. You may model to get forecasts, which
enable better control, but iteration is again likely to be present.
The trend equation is:
Y^ = a + bX + E
Y^ = Estimated value of Y
a = Constant or Intercept
b = slope of trend line
X = independent variable
E = Error term
Explained variation - means the extent to which the independent variable
explains the relative change in the dependent variable. Higher the explained
variation, lower the error value leading to accurate forecast.
R2 = Explained Variation
1- R2 = Unexplained Variation
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Fig. 2.1: Trend Analysis – Line of Best Fit

This process may be followed at the organization level as a whole or for

parts of the organization based on department, location etc. Doing this at a
granular with assumptions being documented and shared with the approving
authority increases the forecast accuracy. The drawback is that you follow
practices that you followed in the past. If the organization is experiencing the
same rate of growth then this may work. But for extraordinary circumstances
either good or bad for the organization, the trend analysis forecasting
method often fails. Also this may build in turn the organization teeth to tail
ratio unfavorable for making profits or enhancing profits. Teeth are the no. of
employees who are directly into revenue earning jobs. E.g.: production
employees, operations employees and sales staff. Tail is the no. of
employees who are enabling the employees involved in directly revenue
earning jobs. E.g.: secretaries, finance, administration & human resources.
2.6.3 Work Study Technique
It is a technique that can be used when it is possible to apply work
measurements to know how long operations should take and the amount of
labor required. It is calculated in two ways.
 Work-Load Analysis
 Work-Force Analysis
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I) Work-Load Analysis
One more method of forecasting is by evaluating the work load in a
department or job role. This then enables deciding the no. of employees
required for doing the job. This depends on the nature of the work load in a
branch, department, or a division in a firm or organization.
Example:
In BPOs, if an agent can handle 18 calls in a day of about 25 minute
duration. If 2 lakh calls are received in a month, then the workload is
evaluated on a per day basis. Calls receivable per hour are plotted. Then
the no. of employees required to service those number of calls is calculated.
Also the service level is considered. Some clients do not want to keep their
customers on hold for more than 1 minute, in such cases the service level
may be taken as 100%. This requires for staffing additionally such that the
customers are not on hold for more than 1 minute. Staffing is decided to
ensure per hour manpower adequacy to support the service level required
by the client. The client understands the cost involved and is willing to pay
for a higher service level. Based on all the above inputs the workload
evaluation technique allows forecasting manpower demand.
II) Work-Force Analysis
In workforce analysis a sufficient margin for absenteeism, labor turnover and
idle time on the basis of past experience is made. This allows for completing
the total job at hand undertaken by an organization despite the challenges
of labor turnover or absenteeism. The organization needs to make
reasonable prediction of labor turnover or absenteeism. However, if the
actual labor turnover or absenteeism exceeds the predicted value, then it
puts the business under loss. This could mean the profits of the company
reducing or the company experiencing a loss. As we all know that a
business organization with high overheads cannot sustain losses for more
than a certain number of weeks or months depending on the business. This
would mean many people go jobless if the company happens to shut down.
Therefore the workforce analysis has to be done with caution and by an
experienced person with data validated for the past periods. Also the
forecasting person, needs to be able to keep in mind any seasonal
variations and special events that are likely to occur for the predicted period.
Demand forecasting is a very responsible job. The entire organizations
future depends on this. The organization leaders get involved to ensure that
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the demand forecasts are realistic and there is a reasonable buffer built in,
so as to be able to sustain any deviations without a severe compromise in
profitability or credibility with the client.
2.6.4 Managerial Judgment Technique
This is a simple technique. In this the managers of different departments sit
together, discuss and arrive at conclusions as to the number employees
required for future operations based on their past experiences. This
technique involves a “top-down” or “bottom-up approach.”
 In “top-down” approach the managers prepare departmental forecasts.
These are viewed by department heads and a decision is taken.
 In “bottom-up” approach the managers submit their departmental
proposals to top managers who arrive at forecast.
Neither of these forecasts is accurate but both when combined could
achieve effective results. This technique is used in smaller retail
organizations or where there is not enough data available.

Activity 1:
Make a presentation on Expert forecast, Trend Analysis and Work Study
Technique. Post the presentation on [Link]. Request for
comments or feedback from the readers on the last page of the slide.
Review the comments received in a month.

2.6.5 Cost-Benefit Analysis

This is a term that refers both to:
 helping to appraise, or assess, the case for a project or proposal, which
itself is a process known as project appraisal; and
 An informal approach to making economic decisions of any kind.
Under both definitions the process involves, whether explicitly or implicitly,
weighing the total expected costs against the total expected benefits of one
or more actions in order to choose the best or most profitable option. The
formal process is often referred to as either CBA (Cost-Benefit Analysis) or
BCA (Benefit-Cost Analysis).
Benefits and costs are often expressed in money terms, and are adjusted
for the time value of money, so that all flows of benefits and flows of project
costs over time (which tend to occur at different points in time) are

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expressed on a common basis in terms of their “present value.” Closely

related, but slightly different, formal techniques include cost-effectiveness
analysis, economic impact analysis, fiscal impact analysis and social return
on investment (SROI) analysis. The latter builds upon the logic of cost-
benefit analysis, but differs in that it is explicitly designed to inform the
practical decision-making of enterprise managers and investors focused on
optimizing their social and environmental impacts.
Work that is done by hand can be done faster by machines. It is also
uniformly done. Number of employees is also less, hence you save up every
month on their salary but it has gone into the purchase of a machine which
is a onetime investment. So it does prove to be beneficial to the firm or
organization. E.g. tagging or stamping an item or product for sale.
2.6.6 Markov Analysis
This is a mathematical technique. It forecasts the availability of internal job
candidates. In this analysis, various job classifications can be predicted
based on past movements (transfers, promotions, attrition, new joiners,
resignations, and retirement).
2.6.7 Statistical Judgment Technique
This technique concentrates on using the past to predict the future by
identifying trends, patterns and business drives within the data to develop a
forecast. This forecast is referred to as a statistical forecast because it uses
mathematical formulas to identify the patterns and trends while testing the
results for mathematical reasonableness and confidence. These include
ratio-trend analysis and econometric models. In ratio trend analysis the
ratios are calculated for the past data and these are used to calculate future
manpower requirements. Example:
st
Present level of sales (1 Jan 2003) = 2000 units
st
Present number of men (1 Jan 2003) = 4
Ratio = 2000/4 = 500
st
Estimated sales as on (1 Jan 2006) = 5000 units
st
Men required as on (1 Jan 2006) = 5000/500 = 10

These models are built up by analyzing past statistical data.

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Self Assessment Questions

8. ___________ is called as the Delphi technique.
9. ___________ is an expensive way to help a company plan and
prepare for the future years.
10. _______ technique requires studying the past data of an organization.
11. Work Study Technique is calculated in two ways _______ and
__________.
12. Managerial Judgment Technique involves a ________ or _________
approach.
13. ________________ Technique concentrates on using the past to
predict the future by identifying trends, patterns and business drives
within the data to develop a forecast

2.7 Forecasting Accuracy

The evaluation of the success of forecasting is decided by assessing at the
end of the forecast period, the deviation of the forecast from the actual or
the forecast accuracy.
Teams or individuals who can produce forecasts which are accurate are
valued and the technique applied is understood and used appropriately in
business organizations.
There is no way one can undermine the impact of forecasting accuracy. The
forecasting is done for a critical set of resources manpower. This can
constitute the bulk of the expenses of a services organization maybe 55%. If
the forecasting accuracy is 80%, the chances that the expenses on account
of employees my increase to 75% or more. Cost increases do not work
proportionately. In fact it works very disproportionately. Therefore it
increases the organizations expenditure beyond a point, where it can no
longer remain profitable.
It is important to course correct mid way during the course of the year,
should your forecasting accuracy be lower than estimated. This enables
controlling costs and retaining capital reserves for a rainy day. It is better to
err on the side of having less manpower in recessionary times and it is
better to err on the side of having a bench in boom times. However, when
will a country or the world, slip into a recession is hard to predict. It is better
forecast on the side of caution always.
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2.8 Benefits of Forecasting

Forecasting is valuable for two reasons:
 The end-result if accurate is very valuable. An accurate forecast may
improve likely hood of achieving all organizational goals for the year. It
can help identify risks, clarify what needs to be done and sets fair
expectations.
 The process of forecasting makes managers sensitive to change and
helps them to curtail their flamboyant decision making on the manpower
expenditure side is and helps focus on achieving the business goals. It
also enables them to understand the impact of their actions on the
organizations and their own future and helps build consensus.
Sometimes consensus is critical. The fact that everybody has agreed on a
forecast may be more essential than its accuracy, particularly if the consensus
involves many firms and organizations crossing organizational and cultural
barriers. Consensus works both ways. An agreed forecast can be self-fulfilling.
Some of the other benefits of forecasting are:
1. It does not put stress on the system.
2. Lower stress on the system means lower manpower turnover.
3. Lower stress on the system means lower costs, and no need to do any
unplanned expenditure.
4. Lower stress on the system means work gets delivered on time every
time to the client.
5. Lower stress on the system means work gets delivery as per the quality
standards every time to the client.
6. Lower stress on the system means that client does not make any
escalations against employees and does not threaten to withdraw the
business on concerns of quality or timeliness.
7. Lower stress on the system means lesser procedures and interference
from the quality team or the management team.
8. Lower stress on the system means more freedom of control to resolve
issues in the budding stages, than letting them reach a point where
escalations arise.
9. Lower stress on the system means the employees have a stress free
life and greater work-life balance.

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10. Lower stress means the employees get enough time to spend with
family and their presence can help resolve concerns or issues which if
unresolved can grow exponentially and cause life changing events to
occur.
11. Lower stress means the employees are able to learn more and add
more value to the business and contribute more in terms of
productivity.
12. Lower stress can be extrapolated to mean world peace (though some
may not agree). Hence better demand forecasting, means happiness
for all concerned.
13. Lower stress levels do not kill employees through massive heart
attacks. But poor demand forecasting leading to higher stress levels
can be harmful to the employee‟s individual health.

Self Assessment Questions

14. __________ or _________ who can produce forecasts which are
accurate are valued and the technique applied is understood and used
appropriately in business organizations.
15. An _________________ may improve likely hood of achieving all
organizational goals for the year.

2.9 Summary
The elements of conducting retail businesses are for ever changing. The
rate of interest rise and fall, changes in customer preferences, suppliers can
go out of business, and thus it goes on and on. As the factors that influence
businesses to change, an organization forecasts must also change. In this
fast changing world precise and timely forecasts have become even more
essential. Recognizing this is the first step in becoming a successful retail
organization.
We have different types of forecasting methods. The key in forecasting at
present is to understand the different forecasting methods and their relative
merits. An organization has to be able to choose which method to apply in a
particular situation and during which months.

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2.10 Terminal Questions

1. What is forecasting?
2. What is demand forecasting? Why you will conduct it in your firm.
3. Which according to you is a good forecasting technique? Why?
4. State the benefits of forecasting.

2.11 Answers
Answers to Self Assessment Questions
1. New products, new product lines.
2. Manpower planning process
3. Demand, Supply
4. Quality, Quantity
5. Expert Forecasts
6. Internal Supply, External Supply
7. Manpower
8. Supply
9. Forecasting
10. Trend Analysis
11. Work-Load Analysis, Work-Force Analysis
12. “top-down” or “bottom-up
13. Statistical Judgment
14. Teams, individuals
15. Accurate forecast

Answers to Terminal Questions

1. Refer section 2.2
2. Refer section 2.5
3. Refer section 2.6
4. Refer section 2.8

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Glossary
Term Description
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual
outcomes have not yet been observed
Statistics is the science of making effective use of numerical data relating
to groups of individuals or experiments
Analysis is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into
smaller parts to gain a better understanding of it
Technique is a procedure used to accomplish a specific activity or task

Mini Case
An organization was not able to forecast its demand accurately. It created a
huge amount of stress on the leadership and the operations teams. The
client leader was so upset with the situation, that he demanded to meet the
president of the service providing organization to come and report to him
and explain why there was a goof up in upholding the service levels
contractually agreed and what was being done to fix the situation.
Usually we think that the president of a company is not likely to experience
any unkind situation. But this is untrue, any president is likely to be
questioned by the different stakeholders, if the contractual obligations, legal
obligations, environmental obligations are not met. A big team of experts was
deployed to resolve the situation in double quick time. The stress levels in the
system were reduced and the process was brought under control. But by the
time the stress levels were reduced in the system, one of the employees of
the service provider organization suffered a massive heart attack.

Case study Questions

1. How important is demand forecasting from a business profitability
perspective?
2. How important is demand forecasting from an overall lower stress level
in the organization perspective?
Hint
1. Very important
2. Very important

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Recommended Reading
 Pandey R. K. (1992). Manpower Planning in Banks. India: Deep and
Deep Publications.

References
Books
 Rao S. P. (2010). Personnel and Human Resource Management.
Mumbai: Himalaya Publishing House
 Tripathi P.C. (2009). Human Resource Development. New Delhi: Sultan
Chand and Sons
 Mahapatro B. B. (2010). Human Resource Management. New Delhi:
New Age International Publishers
 Aggarwala D. V., (2008) Manpower: Planning, Selection, Training and
Development. India: Deep and Deep.

E-references
 [Link]/[Link]
(Retrieved on 13 May 2010)
 [Link]/editorials/[Link]
(Retrieved on 13 May 2010)
 [Link]/Replies/1680/1/[Link]
(Retrieved on 13 May 2010)
 [Link]/~rxv/business/[Link]
(Retrieved on 13 May 2010)
 [Link]/rajeevgupta/manpower-planninghrm-final
(Retrieved on 13 May 2010)
 [Link]/doc/20310334/Models-and-Technique-of-Mp-Demand-
and-Supply-Forecasting-by-shahid-elims
(Retrieved on 13 May 2010)

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