Unit 6
Unit 6
UNBIASEDNESS
Structure
6.1 Introduction 6.6 Summary
Expected Learning Outcomes 6.7 Terminal Questions
6.2 Basic Terminology 6.8 Solutions /Answers
6.3 Properties of Good Estimator
6.4 Unbiasedness
6.5 Properties of Unbiased
Estimator
6.1 INTRODUCTION
In many real-life problems, the population parameter (characteristic of the
population) is not known and someone is interested in obtaining the value of Tools You Will Need
the parameter. But, if
The following terms are
• the whole population is too large to study, considered essential
background material for
• the units of the population are destructive in nature,
this Unit. If you doubt your
• there are limited resources and manpower available, etc. knowledge of any of these
terms, you should review
then it is not practically convenient to examine each unit of the population to
the appropriate Unit or
find the value of the parameter. For example, as you know many of us use
section before proceeding:
Facebook and you are interested to know the average age of the people who
use Facebook. However, the true value (average age) of Facebook users is • Sampling distributions
not known. The only way to know the true average age of Facebook users is (Units 2,3, 4 and 5).
to survey each and every person in the world who uses Facebook. But it is not • Probability distributions
possible to survey everyone in the world. In such a situation, one can select (MST-012).
randomly some persons who use Facebook and note their age. Suppose we
randomly selected 20 Facebook users and obtained the following data of their
age (in years):
20 42 36 30 20 52 32 18 70 22
45 18 40 16 18 20 30 19 41 20
If we use the sample average age to estimate the unknown average age of the
Facebook users, then we get an estimate of the same as
163
Unit Writer- Dr. Prabhat Kumar Sangal, School of Sciences, IGNOU, New Delhi
Block 2 Properties of Good Estimator
n
1 607
X
= ∑ =
n i=1
Xi = 30.25
20
This unit is divided into nine sections. Section 6.1 is introductory in nature. The
164 basic terms used in estimation are defined in Section 6.2. Section 6.3 is
Unit 6 Unbiasedness
devoted to explaining the criteria of a good estimator. Section 6.4 explores the
concept of unbiasedness with examples. The properties of an unbiased
estimator are described in Section 6.5. The unit ends by providing a summary
of what we have discussed in this unit in Section 6.6. The terminal questions
and the solution of the SAQs/TQs are given in Sections 6.7 and 6.8,
respectively.
In the next unit, we shall discuss the second characteristic of a good estimator,
that is, consistency.
Binomial (discrete)
2 n n− x n&p np np(1 – p)
P[X =
x] = Cxp x (1 − p ) ; x=
0,1,...,n
Poisson (discrete)
3 e−λ λ x λ λ λ
P [ X= x ]= ; x= 0,1,... ; λ > 0
x!
Uniform (discrete)
4 1 n
n +1 n2 − 1
P[X= x= ] ; = x 1,2,...,n 2 12
n
Hypergeometric (discrete)
M nM NM (N − M)(N − n )
5 Cx N−M Cn− x N, M & n
P[X ]
= x= x 0,1,...,min {M,n}
;= N N2 (N − 1)
N
Cn 165
Block 2 Properties of Good Estimator
Geometric (discrete) p p
6 p
P[X =
x] =
p (1 − p ) ; x =
0,1,2,...
x (1 − p ) (1 − p )2
Negative Binomial (discrete)
rp rp
7 x + r − 1 r r&p
P[X =
x] =
x
p (1 − p ) ; x =
0,1,2, ... (1 − p ) (1 − p )2
r −1
Normal (continuous)
2
1 x −µ
−
8 1 2 µ & σ2 µ σ2
= f (x) e σ ; − ∞ < x < ∞;
σ 2π
σ > 0, − ∞ < µ < ∞
Uniform (continuous)
10 1 a&b
a+b ( b − a )2
f (x)
= ; a < x < b,b > a 2 12
b−a
Exponential (continuous) 1 1
11 −θx θ
f ( x ) = θe ; x ≥ 0; θ > 0 θ θ2
Negative Exponential or simply exponential
(continuous)
x θ θ θ2
1 −θ
=f (x) e ; x ≥ 0; θ > 0
θ
Gamma (continuous)
b b
12 ba −bx a −1 a&b
f (x)
= e x ; x > 0;a,b > 0 a a2
a
Beta First Kind (continuous)
1 b −1 a ab
=
.13 f (x) xa −1 (1 − x ) ; 0 < x < 1; a&b 2
B ( a,b ) a+b ( a + b ) ( a + b + 1)
a > 0,b > 0
Standard Cauchy
Does
1
15=f (x) ; −∞ < x < ∞ --- not Does not exist
(
π 1 + x2 ) exist
Laplace
x −µ
16 1 − b µ&b µ 2b2
= f (x) e ; −∞ < x < ∞
2b
Parameter Space
The set of all possible values that the parameter θ or parameters θ1, θ2, …, θk
can assume is called the parameter space. It is denoted by Θ and is read as
“big theta”. For finding the parameter space of a parameter, we have to think
all possible values of the parameter yet the chance of these is very very small.
166 For example, suppose the parameter θ represents the average life of electric
Unit 6 Unbiasedness
bulbs manufactured by a company. Since the bulb can be fused at the initial
time 0 or at 1, 2, 2.3, 3 hours, and so on, therefore, it lies from 0 to ∞. Hence,
the parameter space of the average life of the bulbs, that is, θ = is Θ {θ : θ ≥ 0} .
It means that the parameter average life θ can take all possible values greater
than or equal to 0, Similarly, in a normal distribution (μ, σ2), the parameter
space of parameters μ and σ
= 2
is Θ {(μ,σ 2
}
) : −∞ < μ < ∞; 0 < σ < ∞ .
Mathematical Expectation
If X is a continuous random variable having the probability density function
f ( x ) , then the expected value of X (mean) is defined as
∞ ∞
E ( X) = ∫ ( ) ∫x
x f ( x ) dx and E Xr = r
f ( x ) dx
−∞ −∞
• E ( aX ) = aE ( X )
• E ( aX ± bY=
) aE ( X ) ± bE ( Y )
Variance
If X is a random variable then the variance of X in terms of expectation is
defined as
Var ( X ) =
2
E X − E ( X ) = ( )
E X2 − E ( X )
2
• Var ( aX ) = a2 Var ( X )
Var ( aX ±=
bY ) a2 Var ( X ) + b2 Var ( Y )
SAQ 1
If θ represents the average marks (out of 50) of the learner in the Term-End-
Exam paper of the MST-016 course, then find the parameter space of θ.
After understanding the basic definition and terminology which will help you to
understand the properties of a good estimator. We now finally discuss the
properties of a good estimator in the next section. 167
Block 2 Properties of Good Estimator
22 + 30
• Sample median
= X = 26
2
• Sample mode X0 = 20
max + min 70 + 14
• Average of extreme=
users = = 42
2 2
Now, the questions arise,
• Which estimator should you use, that is, which is likely to give estimates
closer to the true (but unknown) population value?
• Are some of the possible estimators better, in some sense, than the
others?”
In general, an estimator whose sampling distribution concentrates as closely
Unbiasedness as possible near the true value of the parameter may be regarded as a good
estimator. To give the answer to the above questions, Prof. Ronald A. Fisher
gave some properties of a good estimator which are as follows:
Consistency • Unbiasedness
Characte • Consistency
ristics of
good • Efficiency
estimator
Efficiency • Sufficiency
We shall discuss these properties one by one in the subsequent Units.
Now, answer the following Self Assessment Question.
Sufficiency
SAQ 2
Write properties of a good estimator.
We now discuss the first characteristic of a good estimator in the next section.
6.4 UNBIASEDNESS
In the previous units, you have studied that any statistic such as sample mean,
Any statistic which is used
sample variance, sample proportion, etc. which is used to estimate an
to estimate an unknown
unknown population parameter is known as an estimator. You also saw that
population parameter is
the value of any estimator changes from sample to sample, therefore, we
known as estimator.
consider the estimator as a random variable and we can find the mean and
variance of the estimator. So we can define an estimator as an unbiased
estimator as:
An estimator is said to be unbiased for a population parameter if and only if
the average or mean of the sampling distribution of the estimator is equal to
168 the true value of the parameter. This property of the estimator is called
Unit 6 Unbiasedness
unbiasedness.
Let us see some examples,
• In Unit 1, you have seen that the mean of the sampling distribution of the
sample mean of monthly salary of the employees is equal to the mean
salary of all employees of the industry. So sample mean is an unbiased
estimate of the population mean.
• Similarly, in Unit 3, we saw that the mean of the sample proportions of the
children who like to dance is equal to the population proportion. Therefore,
sample proportion is an unbiased estimate of the population proportion.
In general, we denote any population parameter such as a population mean,
population standard deviation, population proportion, and so on by the Greek
letter theta θ, and its estimator such as the sample mean, sample standard
deviation, and sample proportion by T or θ̂ (pronounced as “theta-hat”).
Mathematically,
If X1 , X2 , ..., Xn is a random sample of size n taken from a population whose
probability density (mass) function is f(x,θ) where θ is the population
parameter then an estimator T = t(X1 , X2 , ..., Xn ) is said to be an unbiased
An estimator is said to be
estimator of the parameter θ if and only if unbiased if the expected
E(T) = θ value of the estimator is
equal to the true value of
for all possible values of the parameter θ.
the parameter being
However, if the expected value of the estimator does not equal to the true estimated.
value of the parameter, then the estimator is said to be a “biased estimator”,
that is, if
E(T) ≠ θ
• If b(θ) > 0 or E(T) > θ, then the estimator T is said to be positively biased
for the parameter θ.
• If b(θ) < 0 or E(T) < θ, then the estimator T is said to be negatively biased
for the parameter θ.
• If E(T) → θ as n → ∞ , that is, if an estimator T is unbiased for a large
sample only then the estimator T is said to be asymptotically unbiased for
1
θ. For example, suppose E(T) = θ + then as n → ∞,E(T) → θ .
n
estimator.
Now, we explain the procedure to show whether an estimator is unbiased or
not for a parameter with the help of some examples.
Example 1: Show that the sample mean (X) is an unbiased estimator of the
population mean (µ) if it exists.
Solution: Let X1, X2, …, Xn be a random sample of size n taken from any
population with mean µ. We have to show that the sample mean X is an
unbiased estimator for µ, therefore, we have to find E(X) and check whether
it is equal to µ or not. That is,
( )
E X =μ
Consider,
X + X2 + ... + Xn
( )
E X =E 1
n
[By defination of the sample mean]
1
= E ( X1 ) + E ( X2 ) + ... + E ( Xn ) E ( aX + bY=
) aE ( X ) + bE ( Y )
n
Since X1, X2,…, Xn are randomly drawn from the same population with mean μ
and variance σ2, therefore,
E(X1=
) E(X2=
) ...= E(Xn=
) E(X)= μ
Thus,
1
E(X)
= μ + μ + ...=
+ μ 1=(nμ) μ
n n
n− times
Hence, the sample mean (X) is an unbiased estimator of the population mean
μ. Also if x1 , x 2 , ..., xn are the observed values of the random sample
n
1
X1 , X2 , ..., Xn then x =
n
∑ xi is an unbiased estimate of the population mean.
i=1
Vehicle 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Speed
(in kph) 62 70 65 68 64 65 70 64 55 60
1 n X1 + X2 + ... + Xn
=X =
n i=1
Xi ∑ n
62 + 70 + 65 + 68 + 64 + 65 + 70 + 64 + 55 + 60
= 64.3
10
Now, we have to show that the sample average speed is an unbiased estimate
of the average speed of all lightweight vehicles on the roadway.
Since the speed of the vehicles is normally distributed and standard deviation
(σ) is known, therefore, the sample average speed also follows a normal
distribution with mean µ and variance σ2/n.
( )
Thus, E X = μ
Hence, the point estimate of the proportion of all defective water bottles is
0.05.
Example 4: A furniture company manufacturing square tables of a side length
µ. Thus, the area of the table will be µ2 (unknown). Based on n independent
measurements X1, . . . , Xn of the length, estimate area of the table. Assume
that the measurements of the length have mean µ and variance σ2.
Solution: Since the measurements of the length have mean µ and variance
σ2, therefore, the sampling distribution of mean has mean and variance as
follows:
σ2
( )
E X = μ and Var ( X ) =
n
σ2
( )
Var X =
n
and by the formula of variance, we have
171
Block 2 Properties of Good Estimator
( )
2
Var
= ( )
X E X2 − E X
( )
Therefore,
σ2
( )
2
E X2 = Var X + E X =
( )
n
+ μ2 ≠ μ2 ( )
Hence, X2 is not an unbiased estimator of the area of the table, that is, µ2
and we can calculate the bias of the estimator as
σ2 σ2
( )
E X2 − μ2 =
n
(
⇒ E X2 − μ2 =
n
) E ( a ) = a
We now find the value of k such that the estimator X2 − kS2 is unbiased for µ2.
(
E X2 − kS2 =
μ2 )
( )
E X2 − kE S2 = μ2 ( ) E ( aX ± bY=
) aE ( X ) ± bE ( Y )
σ2
μ2 + μ2 [since S2 is an unbiased estimator of σ2,i.e. E(S2)= σ2]
− kσ 2 =
n
Therefore,
1
k=
n
1 2 2
Hence, for k = , the estimator X − kS is unbiased for µ2.
n
Example 5: If X1 , X2 , ..., Xn is a random sample taken from a population with a
mean μ and variance σ2, then
n
∑ ( Xi )
1 2
=S′2 −X is a biased estimator of σ2.
n i=1
n 1 n
∑( )
2
whereas,
= S2 ′2 i.e. S2
S= Xi − X is an unbiased estimator of
n −1 n − 1 i=1
σ2.
2
Solution: We have to show that S′ is not an unbiased estimator for σ2,
therefore, we have to find E(S′2 ) and check whether it is equal to σ2 or not.
Therefore, we consider:
1 n 2 1 n 2
( )
S′2 E
E =
n
Xi − X= E
n ∑(
Xi − X ) ∑( ) E (=
aX ) aE ( X )
= i 1= i 1
1 n 1 n 2 n 2 n
= E
n i 1
∑(
Xi2 + X2 −=
2Xi X
E Xi +
n i 1 =i 1
)
X − −2X Xi
∑ ∑ ∑
= = =i 1
1 n 2 1 n n
= ∑
E Xi + nX2 − 2XnX
n i=1 X = Xi ⇒
n i 1 =i 1
∑ ∑
Xi = nX
=
172
Unit 6 Unbiasedness
1 n 2 1 n 2
= E =∑
n i=1
Xi − nX2
n ∑
E Xi − nE X2
( )
i=1
1 n
= ∑ ( ) 2 2
E Xi − nE X
n i=1
( )
1 n 2 σ2
= ∑(
n i=1
)
μ + σ 2 − n μ2 +
n
[ As discussed in Example 4]
1 2 σ2
= (2 2
)
n μ + σ − n μ +
n
n
σ2 n − 1 2
= μ2 + σ 2 − μ2 − = σ
n n
E S′2
= ( ) n −1 2
n
σ ≠ σ2
2
Hence, S′ is not an unbiased estimator for σ2.
Now, we check whether S2 is unbiased of σ2 or not, therefore, we consider:
E S2
= ( ) =
n
n −1
( )
E S′2
n n −1 2
=
n −1 n
σ σ2
SAQ 3
a. A company produces batteries for laptops and wants to estimate the
average life of the battery. For that, the statistician of the company
selected 5 batteries from the production and measured their lives. He
suggests two estimators for estimating the average life of the battery:
where X1, X2, X3, X4 and X5 repersent life of the selected batteries. It is
known that the life of batteries has mean μ and variance σ2. Are both
estimators unbiased?
b. Show that the sample mean and sample median are both unbiased
estimators for mean (μ) of a normal distribution.
1. Unbiased estimators may not be unique. For example, the sample mean
and sample median are unbiased estimators of the population mean of a
normal population.
2. Unbiased estimators do not always exist for all parameters. For example,
for a Bernoulli distribution (θ), there is no unbiased estimator for θ2.
Similarly, for a Poisson distribution (λ), there exists no unbiased estimator
for 1/ λ.
aT+ (1−a) T*
is also an unbiased estimator of θ where ‘a’ (0 ≤ a ≤ 1) is any constant.
SAQ 4
Some patients with high blood pressure are randomly assigned to a placebo
group and a treatment group. The placebo patients receive an inactive pill, and
the treatment patients receive a new drug that is expected to lower blood
pressure. After the patients are treated for two months, the high blood
pressures of the patients of both groups are measured and given as follows:
Placebo
140 165 170 140 135 170 165 150 140
Group (X)
Treatment
130 135 140 130 120 120 132 118 120
Group (Y)
If E ( X ) μ=
= 1, Var ( X ) σ1 and
2
= E ( Y ) μ=
2 , Var ( Y ) σ 2 , then
2
(i) ( )
Show that the statistic X − Y is an unbiased estimator of the parameter
(μ1 − μ2 ) . Also, find the estimate of the same using the given data.
(ii) Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the estimator in Part (i).
Also, find the estimate of standard error.
(iii) Calculate an estimate of the ratio σ1 / σ 2 .
We now end this unit by giving a summary of what we have covered in it.
6.6 SUMMARY
In this unit, we have covered the following points:
• If we estimate an unknown parameter by a single statistic then this
technique is known as point estimation whereas if we determine an
174 interval (using sample values) that contains the true value of the unknown
Unit 6 Unbiasedness
• The set of all possible values that the parameter θ or parameters θ1, θ2,
…, θk can assume is called the parameter space. It is denoted by Θ .
=E ( Xi ) μ =
and Var ( Xi ) σ=
2
for all i 1,2,...,5
We now consider
X + X 2 + X3 + X 4 + X5
E ( T1 ) = E 1
5 175
Block 2 Properties of Good Estimator
1
= E ( X1 ) + E ( X2 ) + E ( X3 ) + E ( X4 ) + E ( X5 )
5
1
=
5
[μ + μ + μ + μ + μ]
E ( T1 ) = μ
Similarly,
E ( T2 ) = μ
σ2
( )
E X = μ and Var ( X ) =
n
4. ( )
We have to show that X − Y is an unbiased estimator for (μ1 − μ2 ) ,
therefore, we have to find E ( X − Y ) and check whether it is equal to
(μ1 − μ2 ) or not. Thus, we consider
( ) ( ) ( )
E X − Y =E X − E Y =μ1 − μ2 E ( aX − bY ) =aE ( X ) − bE ( Y )
( )
Hence, the estimator X − Y is an unbiased estimator for (μ1 − μ2 ) .
We now find the estimate of the same using the given data. Since
estimate is the value of the estimator, therefore, we find the mean of
176 each group as
Unit 6 Unbiasedness
Placebo Treatment
X2 Y2
Group (X) Group (Y)
140 130 19600 16900
165 135 27225 18225
170 140 28900 19600
140 130 19600 16900
135 120 18225 14400
170 120 28900 14400
165 132 27225 17424
150 118 22500 13924
140 120 19600 14400
1375 1145 211775 146173
n
1 1 1375
=X ∑ =
n1 i=1
Xi = 152.78
9
n
1 2 1145
=Y =
n2 i=1
∑
Yi = 127.22
9
X−
= Y 152.78 − 127.22
= 25.56.
σ12 σ 22
(
SD X − Y = ) (
Var X − Y = ) +
n1 n2
σ12 σ 22
( )
SE X − Y = SD X − Y = ( ) +
n1 n2
σˆ 12 σˆ 22 S12 S22
(
SE X − Y = ) +
n1 n2
= +
n1 n2
S1 S12 212.43
= = = 1.83
S2 S22 63.58
Since X1, X2,…, Xn are randomly drawn from the same population having
mean θ, therefore,
E ( X1=
) E ( X2 =) ...= E ( Xn =) E ( X=) θ
Therefore, we consider
X + X2 + ... + Xn
( )
E X =E 1
n
[By defination of sample mean]
1 E ( aX + bY )
= E ( X1 ) + E ( X2 ) + ... + E ( Xn )
n = aE ( X ) + bE ( Y )
1 1
= (θ
θ
+ + ...=θ) =
+ (nθ ) θ
n n-times
n
N = 3 and n = 2
Therefore, the possible numbers of samples (with replacement) that can
be drawn from this population are Nn = 32 = 9. For each of these 9
samples, we will calculate the values of X,S′2 and S2 by the formulae
given below:
1 n 1 n 1 n
∑( ) ∑( )
2 2
X = Xi , S′2 =
n n
∑Xi − X and S2 =
n − 1
Xi − X
=i 1 =i 1 =i 1
and the necessary calculations for these results are shown in the
following table:
Calculation for X, S′2 and S2
2
∑ ( Xi - X )
2
Sample
Sample
Observations X S′2 S2
i=1
1 8, 8 8 0 0 0
2 8, 6 7 2 1 2
3 8,10 9 2 1 2
4 6, 8 7 2 1 2
5 6, 6 6 0 0 0
6 6, 10 8 8 4 8
7 10, 8 9 2 1 2
8 10, 6 8 8 4 8
9 10, 10 10 0 0 0
Total 72 12 24
1
X2 = ( 8 + 6 )= 7,...,
2
1
X9 = (10 + 10 )= 10
2
1 2 2
S1′2= ( 8 − 8 ) + ( 8 − 8 ) = 0,
2
1
S′22=
( 8 − 7 )2 + ( 6 − 7 )2 = 1,...,
2
1 2 2
S′92= (10 − 10 ) + (10 − 10 ) =
0
2
1
S12
=
( 8 − 8 )2 + ( 8 − 8=
)2 0,
2 −1
1 2 2
S22
= ( 8 − 7 ) + ( 6 − 7=
) 2,...,
2 −1 179
Block 2 Properties of Good Estimator
1 2 2
S92
= (10 − 10 ) + (10 − 10=
) 0
2 −1
From the above table, we have
k
1 1
( )
E X =
k
∑ Xi =9 × 72 =8 =μ
i=1
2
Therefore, S′ is not an unbiased estimator of σ2 whereas,
k
( ) ∑S
E S2 =
1
k
2
i
1
= × 24 =2.67 =σ 2
9
i=1
180