Projection Green Risa

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xx PRAISE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE …

mitigate and adapt, the strategies and best practices, and

how we can transform the trajectory. Amongst other
important concluding recom-mendations, Dr. Thomas issues
a clarion call for moving away from our overuse of GDP to
design public policy objectives that prioritize growth over
societal impacts. To paraphrase Dr. Thomas – it is time to
start measuring quality over quantity and make our personal,
professional, and political decisions based on improving the
quality of life for all.”
—Tensie Whelan, Professor and Founding Director NYU Stern
Center for Sustainable Business

“This book shows with great clarity and by drawing upon

recent publi-cations, that there is an urgent need to
recognize the increasing risk posed by climate change, to
alter mindsets, and to fundamentally rethink economic
strategies. If growth is to remain a priority, it must be
rendered sustainable through the avoidance of diseconomies
and by measures that build resilience in the face of shocks to
come. This compact and incisive volume is a welcome
addition to the literature on a vital topic. It could nudge the
undecided to recognize the enormity of the challenge that is
upon us.”
—Shahid Yusuf, Chief Economist, Growth Dialogue and
Non-Resident Fellow, Center for Global Development
 Contents

1 Opening 1
Bibliography 7

Part I Risk and

2 Troubled TimesResilience
11
New and Extreme 12
Danger 16
The Nature of Risk 24
The Significance of 26
Resilience 29
Climate Risk and 29
Resilience
3 Understanding Risk 35
The Global Risk 36
Landscapes 39
Risk and 40
Uncertainty 44
Measuring Risk 48
Sources of Disaster 49
Risks
4 Resilience That Shapes 53
Nature and Phases of Resilience 54
Interaction Between Risk and 57
Resilience Mapping Components 61
of Risk and Resilience
xxi
 xxii CONTENTS

Country, Regional, and Global 64

Priorities Conclusions 68
Bibliography 68
5 New Highs in Risk and 73
Rising Risks 74
Anchoring 78
Resilience 87
Conclusions 88
Bibliography
Part II The Climate
Catastrophe 95
6 Intractability of Climate
Unheeded Warnings 96
Problems Eluding 98
Solutions 103
A Super Wicked 107
Problem 109
Lines of Causation 113
Adding Fuel to the 115
Fire 116
7 Failure in Messaging
A Persistently False 125
Centrality of Externalities 126
Discounting the Future 131
Econometrics and Climate 133
Disasters Economics at the 136
Climate Table 137
Conclusions 138
Bibliography
8 Integrating Resilience in 143
Crisis and Disaster 144
Management Disaster 151
Prevention and Mitigation 152
Mitigation and Adaptation 158
Efforts Alternative Energy 159
Sources 161
Costs and Benefits 163
Green Financing 165
Sources of Climate Funds 166
 CONTENTS xxiii

9 Transformat 173
The Big Picture 174
Triage Financing and 177
Energy Transition 179
Global Economic 181
Societal and Individual 183
Conclusions 189
Bibliography 190

Index 197
 Abbreviations

ADB Asian Development Bank

AIIB Asian Infrastructure
ASEAN BRI Investment Bank
C The Association of
CCL4 Southeast Asian Nations
CFCs Belt and Road Initiative
CH4 Celsius
CO2 Carbon Tetrachloride
COP Chlorofluorocarbons
CSA Methane
CVAR Carbon Dioxide
DU Conference of the Parties
EU Climate-Smart Agriculture
FAO Cointegrated Vector
FiT Autoregression
GDP Dobson Unit
GHGs European Union
GPOD Food and Agriculture
GSDRC HFC Organization
IAMs Feed-in Tariff
ICU Gross Domestic Product
IEA Greenhouse Gases
IMF Global Probability of
IPCC Disaster
Governance and Social
Development Resource
Centre Hydrofluorocarbons
xxv

Projection Green Risa

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he’d smacked. “Because we both know you don’t like me. And based on that, I
have to say…I’m surprised you’re okay with this living arrangement.”
His eyes narrowed. “Who said I don’t like you?”
“Actually…you did.” I swallowed, my heartbeat accelerating.
His jaw tightened. “I never said that.”
“Not to my face.”
“Explain.”
I’d held it inside for so long. Never even told Brad that I knew—because I
was too ashamed and didn’t want to start a war between him and his oldest
friend. I loved Brad that much.
I decided to just spit it out. “I accidentally saw a text you sent Brad when he
and I first started dating.”
Josh’s Adam’s apple moved. “Okay…”
“His phone was on the counter while he was in the shower. He’d sent you a
photo of us. You responded and said…” I paused, cringing at the memory.
“That there was something about my face that bothered you.”
He blinked and looked away for a moment. “Well, obviously you weren’t
meant to see that.” “Obviously,” I muttered, feeling bitterness at the back
of my throat.
“Look…” He sighed. “I didn’t know anything about you. If I’d known you and
he would end up getting engaged, I might not have—”
“Shared your true feelings?” I crossed my arms, although I really wanted to
punch him.
“It was a dumb thing to say.” He scrubbed a hand over his face. “I didn’t
mean it literally.” “You didn’t mean it literally?” I lowered my voice, realizing
I’d just shouted and didn’t want to wake up Scottie. “How else can you not like
a face…if not literally?”
Josh remained silent as he looked down at the floor.
I’d really caught him off guard. Good. He deserved it.
“I never told Brad I saw it,” I admitted. “As much as I hated you for that text,
I didn’t want to cause a rift. I knew how much you meant to him—for some
godforsaken reason.”
Josh finally looked me straight in the eyes. “I should’ve never said that, and I
apologize. Truly. And as much as you don’t seem to believe me, that text really
meant nothing.” He blew out a long breath and softened a bit. “I guess this
explains why you were never my biggest fan. Brad told me you didn’t like it
when he came to visit because you didn’t trust me. I figured it was because you
thought I was a bad influence. Now I know there was more to it.”
“I did worry when he was with you.”
“You shouldn’t have. Brad’s a grown man with a mind of his own.” He
paused. “Was a grown man.” He shook his head. “I still have a hard time
thinking about him in the past tense.”
My throat felt heavy. “Well, that’s one thing we have in common.”
Josh looked down at his shoes and slipped his hands into his pockets. Then
he turned toward the living room. “I guess I should find a blanket or something
to sleep with.”
“Let me see if there’s something in Wayne’s closet,” I said, still feeling a
little bitter.
Josh followed me to the room where I’d be sleeping, just off the kitchen.
When I opened the closet, it was filled from floor to ceiling. All of Wayne’s
clothes were still hanging there. It smelled a bit musty, so I made a mental
note to clean it out as soon as I had a second to breathe.
“I guess this was Wayne’s solution to the lack of storage space in this
house,” I said as I rummaged through. “Just pack everything in here?”
 Josh turned on a lamp in the corner of the room. “Brad
kept offering to buy him a bigger place, but Wayne never
wanted to leave this cabin. This is where he had all his
memories with Yvonne, where they started their family.”
“I can understand that.” I turned to face him. “They lost
her so young.”
“Yeah.” He shook his head. “That was a terrible fucking
time.”
“You and Brad were in high school when she died?”
He nodded somberly.
I knew Josh was the same age as Brad, who would’ve
been thirty now if he were alive. At twenty-eight, I was two
years younger.
I resumed searching for a blanket and managed to find
a small plaid one amidst all the junk in the closet.
“Will this be enough?” I asked as I handed it to him. It
seemed like it might only cover half his body.
“It’ll work,” he said.
I grabbed one of the two pillows on the bed. It was
heavier than expected, filled with down.“Take this,
too. I don’t need both.” I threw it toward him with
unintentional force.
He caught it. “You enjoyed
throwing that at me, didn’t
you?”I winked. “Maybe a
little.”
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