OB ROBBINS 16e Global-183-214
OB ROBBINS 16e Global-183-214
Perception
and Individual
Decision Making
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The Pricetag for Creativity:
$30 Million. the Return: Priceless
N
icholas D’Aloisio is not your average London teen. Yahoo! recently
purchased his app Summly for $30 million, and at age 17, he is the
youngest member of the Forbes “30 Under 30” Games & Apps in-
novators. Personable and engaging, D’Aloisio is also perhaps not your average
techie. He is the ideal entrepreneur, able to turn his creativity into innovative
decision making and use his natural charisma to bring his ideas to the global
marketplace. D’Aloisio’s rare combination of creativity and personality makes
Learning
him priceless in the high-stakes Silicon Valley marketplace.
Objectives
D’Aloisio showed creative talent early, like many innovators. His mother
After studying this chapter,
Diane, a London lawyer, said, “I remember him creating 3D models on his you should be able to:
computer as a 10-year-old . . . we always knew Nicholas was technical and
talented.” D’Aloisio has always sought the cutting edge of his field and has 1 Define perception, and
explain the factors that
been quick to apply his creativity to designing new products. When Apple influence it.
launched its App Store in 2008, he wanted to work with the new platform 2 Explain attribution
even before Apple was ready. “I went into an Apple store with my dad and we theory, and list the
three determinants
asked one of the assistants how we did this [make an app], and they didn’t of attribution.
know what we were talking about,” he said.
3 Identify the shortcuts
D’Aloisio taught himself basic programming while he waited for the pub- individuals use in making
lic release of the app development process. In August 2008, he launched a judgments about others.
starter app, FingerMill, a treadmill for fingers. It made money the first day, 4 Explain the link between
perception and decision
providing early encouragement. D’Aloisio said, “So as a 12-year-old I was like, making.
‘This is awesome.’ ” He continued to innovate, even though some efforts were
5 Contrast the rational model
less successful. “But every time I did an app I learned more.” of decision making with
bounded rationality and
D’Aloisio’s learning, experience, and creativity led him to perceive a need
intuition.
for an innovative product that would meet a consumer need. At school
in 2011, D’Aloisio was “using Twitter a lot on my phone, and was realizing
6 Describe the common
decision biases or errors.
there was a massive gap between the link on the tweet and the full story. If 7 Explain how individual
you could come up with a summary layer to show in Twitter, that would be differences and
organizational constraints
awesome.” He developed an algorithm app called Trimit to condense news affect decision making.
articles into the space of an iPhone screen with an engaging design. “It helps
8 Contrast the three ethical
publishers reach out to a younger audience,” D’Aloisio says. “There is a gen- decision criteria.
eration of skimmers. It’s not that they don’t want to read in-depth content, 9 Define creativity, and
describe the three-stage
but they want to evaluate what the content is before they commit time.” model of creativity.
D’Aloisio went from technological innovator to marketable commodity
when his personality helped win him investors, including billionaire Li Ka Shing
of Hong Kong, actors Ashton Kutcher and Stephen Fry, Wendi Murdoch (wife of
media mogul Rupert Murdoch), and Yoko Ono. Zynga Inc. and SRI International
R&D helped bring the new version of Trimit, called Summly, online in November
2012. Then the young innovator caught the attention of CEO Marissa Mayer,
who was searching for spokespeople to boost Yahoo!’s tech image.
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184 PART 2 The Individual
Sources: A. Efrati, “At 17, App Builder Rockets to Riches from Yahoo Deal,” The Wall Street Journal
(March 26, 2013), P. B1; E. Samer, “Summly Creator Nick D’Aloisio: ‘I Try to Maintain a Level of
Humbleness, ’ ” The Guardian (March 29, 2013), [Link]/technology/2013/mar/29/
summly-creator-nick-daloisio-interview; and B. Stetler, “He Has Millions and a New Job at Yahoo.
And Soon He’ll Be 18,” The New York Times (March 26, 2013), pp. A1, A3.
T
he case of Nicholas D’Aloisio illustrates how important—and perhaps
rare—an individual’s creativity can be to an organization. The interper-
sonal skills of some innovators like D’Aloisio, who is described as humble
and charismatic, can help bring ideas to the marketplace. As we will see later in
the chapter, the creativity of individuals can lead to true innovation that solves
problems. To better understand, we first explore our perceptions and how they
affect our decision-making process. In the following Self-Assessment Library,
consider one perception—that of appropriate gender roles.
What Is Perception?
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Perception and Individual Decision Making CHAPTER 6 185
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186 PART 2 The Individual
Attribution Theory
2 Explain attribution
theory, and list the three
Nonliving objects such as desks, machines, and buildings are subject to laws of
nature, but they have no beliefs, motives, or intentions. People do. When we
determinants of attribution. observe people, we attempt to explain their behavior. Our perception and judg-
ment of a person’s actions are influenced by the assumptions we make about
that person’s state of mind.
attribution theory An attempt to Attribution theory tries to explain the ways we judge people differently,
determine whether an individual’s depending on the meaning we attribute to a behavior.1 It suggests that when
behavior is internally or externally we observe an individual’s behavior, we attempt to determine whether it was
caused.
internally or externally caused. That determination depends largely on three
factors: (1) distinctiveness, (2) consensus, and (3) consistency. Let’s clarify the
differences between internal and external causation, and then we’ll discuss
the determining factors.
Internally caused behaviors are those an observer believes to be under the
personal behavioral control of another individual. Externally caused behavior
is what we imagine the situation forced the individual to do. If one of your em-
ployees is late for work, you might attribute that to his overnight partying and
subsequent oversleeping. This is an internal attribution. But if you attribute
lateness to an automobile accident that tied up traffic, you are making an exter-
nal attribution.
Now let’s discuss the three determining factors. Distinctiveness refers to
whether an individual displays different behaviors in different situations. Is the
employee who arrives late today also one who regularly “blows off” commit-
ments? What we want to know is whether this behavior is unusual. If it is, we
are likely to give it an external attribution. If it’s not, we will probably judge the
behavior to be internal.
If everyone who faces a similar situation responds in the same way, we can
say the behavior shows consensus. The behavior of our tardy employee meets
this criterion if all employees who took the same route were also late. From an
attribution perspective, if consensus is high, you would probably give an exter-
nal attribution to the employee’s tardiness, whereas if other employees who
took the same route made it to work on time, you would attribute his lateness
to an internal cause.
Finally, an observer looks for consistency in a person’s actions. Does the per-
son respond the same way over time? Coming in 10 minutes late for work is
not perceived in the same way for an employee who hasn’t been late for several
months as it is for an employee who is late three times a week. The more con-
sistent the behavior, the more we are inclined to attribute it to internal causes.
Exhibit 6-2 summarizes the key elements in attribution theory. It tells us, for
instance, that if an employee, Katelyn, generally performs at about the same
level on related tasks as she does on her current task (low distinctiveness), other
employees frequently perform differently—better or worse—than Katelyn on
that task (low consensus), and Katelyn’s performance on this current task is con-
sistent over time (high consistency), anyone judging Katelyn’s work will likely
hold her primarily responsible for her task performance (internal attribution).
One of the findings from attribution theory research is that errors or biases
distort attributions. When we make judgments about the behavior of other peo-
ple, we tend to underestimate the influence of external factors and overestimate
fundamental attribution error The the influence of internal or personal factors.2 This fundamental attribution error
tendency to underestimate the can explain why a sales manager is prone to attribute the poor performance
influence of external factors and of her sales agents to laziness rather than to a competitor’s innovative product
overestimate the influence of internal
factors when making judgments line. Individuals and organizations also tend to attribute their own successes
about the behavior of others. to internal factors such as ability or effort, while blaming failure on external
factors such as bad luck or unproductive co-workers. People also tend to attri-
bute ambiguous information as relatively flattering, accept positive feedback,
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Perception and Individual Decision Making CHAPTER 6 187
Attribution
Observation Interpretation
of cause
High
External
Distinctiveness
Low
Internal
High
External
Individual behavior Consensus
Low
Internal
High
Internal
Consistency
Low
External
self-serving bias The tendency and reject negative feedback. This is self-serving bias.3 Researchers asked one
for individuals to attribute their group of people, “If someone sues you and you win the case, should he pay your
own successes to internal factors
legal costs?” Eighty-five percent responded “yes.” Another group was asked, “If
and put the blame for failures on
external factors. you sue someone and lose the case, should you pay his costs?” Only 44 percent
answered “yes.”4
The evidence on cultural differences in perception is mixed, but most sug-
gests there are differences across cultures in the attributions people make.5
One study found Korean managers were less prone to self-serving bias—they
tended to accept responsibility for group failure “because I was not a capable
leader” instead of attributing failure to group members.6 On the other hand,
Asian managers are more likely to blame institutions or whole organizations,
whereas Western observers believe individual managers should get blame or
praise.7 That probably explains why U.S. newspapers feature the names of indi-
vidual executives when firms do poorly, whereas Asian media cover how the firm
as a whole has failed. This tendency to make group-based attributions also ex-
plains why individuals from Asian cultures are more likely to make group-based
stereotypes.8 Attribution theory was developed based on experiments with U.S.
and western European workers. But these studies suggest caution in making
attribution theory predictions in non-Western societies, especially in countries
with strong collectivist traditions.
Differences in attribution tendencies don’t mean the basic concepts of attri-
bution completely differ across cultures, though. Self-serving biases may be less
common in East Asian cultures, but evidence suggests they still operate across
cultures.9 Studies indicate Chinese managers assess blame for mistakes using
the same distinctiveness, consensus, and consistency cues Western managers
use.10 They also become angry and punish those deemed responsible for failure,
a reaction shown in many studies of Western managers. This means the basic
process of attribution applies across cultures, but that it takes more evidence for
Asian managers to conclude someone else should be blamed.
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188 PART 2 The Individual
selective perception The tendency Selective Perception Any characteristic that makes a person, an object, or an
to selectively interpret what one event stand out will increase the probability we will perceive it. Why? Because it
sees on the basis of one’s interests,
background, experience, and
is impossible for us to assimilate everything we see; we can take in only certain
attitudes. stimuli. Thus, you are more likely to notice cars like your own, and your boss
may reprimand some people and not others doing the same thing. Because we
can’t observe everything going on about us, we use selective perception. But
we don’t choose randomly: We select according to our interests, background,
experience, and attitudes. Selective perception allows us to speed-read others,
but not without the risk of drawing an inaccurate picture. Seeing what we want
to see, we can draw unwarranted conclusions from an ambiguous situation.
We find an example of selective perception in financial analysis. From 2007
to 2009, the U.S. stock market lost roughly half its value. Yet during that time,
analysts’ sell ratings (typically, analysts rate a company’s stock with three rec-
ommendations: buy, sell, or hold) actually decreased slightly. There are several
reasons analysts are reluctant to put sell ratings on stocks; one is selective per-
ception. When prices are going down, analysts often attend to the past (saying
the stock is a bargain relative to its prior price), rather than the future (the
downward trend may continue). As one money manager noted, “Each time
the market went down was a new opportunity to buy the stock even cheaper.”11
True, but it shows the dangers of selective perception: By looking only at the
past price, analysts were relying on a false reference point and failing to recog-
nize that what has fallen can fall further still.
Contrast Effects An old adage among entertainers is “Never follow an act that
has kids or animals in it.” Why? Audiences love children and animals so much
contrast effect Evaluation of a that you’ll look bad in comparison. This example demonstrates how a contrast
person’s characteristics that is effect can distort perceptions. We don’t evaluate a person in isolation. Our
affected by comparisons with other reaction is influenced by other recent encounters.
people recently encountered who
rank higher or lower on the same In a series of job interviews, for instance, interviewers can make distortions
characteristics. in any given candidate’s evaluation as a result of his or her place in the inter-
view schedule. A candidate is likely to receive a more favorable evaluation if
preceded by mediocre applicants and a less favorable evaluation if preceded by
strong applicants.
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190 PART 2 The Individual
Myth or Science?
T
his statement is false. Positive no stereotypic information. The under- solidified other, negative stereotypes
stereotypes exist just as much as graduates in all three groups then shot because any stereotype tends to
negative ones. free throws while observers watched. reinforce group-based differences,
A study of Princeton University stu- The people who performed the worst whether positive or negative.
dents shows, for example, that even were those in the negative stereo- Stereotypes are understandable. To
today we believe Germans are better type condition (Black undergraduates function, we need shortcuts. This short-
workers, Italians and African Americans who were told Whites were better cut, however, runs both ways. Because
are more loyal, Jews and Chinese are and White undergraduates who were stereotypes are socially learned, we
more intelligent, and Japanese and told Blacks were better). However, the need to be vigilant about not accept-
English are more courteous. What is positive stereotype group (Black under- ing or propagating them among our
surprising is that positive stereotypes graduates who were told Blacks were co-workers and peers.
are not always positive. better and White undergraduates who
Men are commonly believed to have were told Whites were better) also
higher math ability than women. One did not perform well. The best perfor- Sources: A. C. Kay, M. V. Day, M. P. Zanna,
and A. D. Nussbaum, “The Insidious
study shows that when this stereotype mance was turned in by those in the no (and Ironic) Effects of Positive Stereotypes,”
is activated before men take a math stereotypic information group. In short, Journal of Experimental Social Psychol-
test, their performance on the test ac- we are more likely to “choke” when we ogy 49 (2013), pp. 287–291; J. O. Sly and
S. Cheryan, “When Compliments Fail to Flat-
tually goes down. Another study found identify with positive stereotypes be- ter: American Individualism and Responses
that the belief that white men are bet- cause they induce pressure to perform to Positive Stereotypes,” Journal of Personality
ter at science and math than women or at the stereotypical level. and Social Psychology 104 (2013), pp. 87–102;
M. J. Tagler, “Choking Under the Pressure
minorities caused white men to leave Choking is not the only negative of a Positive Stereotype: Gender Identifi-
science, technology, engineering, and thing about positive stereotypes. Re- cation and Self-Consciousness Moderate
math majors. Finally, a study used search revealed that when women or Men’s Math Test Performance,” Journal of
Social Psychology 152 (2012), pp. 401–416;
basketball to illustrate the complexity Asian Americans heard positive stereo- M. A. Beasley and M. J. Fischer, “Why They
of stereotypes. Researchers provided types about themselves (“women are Leave: The Impact of Stereotype Threat on
evidence to one group of undergradu- nurturing”; “Asians are good at math”), the Attrition of Women and Minorities from
Science, Math and Engineering Majors,”
ates that Whites were better free they felt depersonalized and reacted Social Psychology of Education 15 (2012),
throw shooters than Blacks. Another negatively to the individual express- pp. 427–448; and A. Krendl, I. Gainsburg, and
group was provided evidence that ing the positive stereotype. Another N. Ambady, “The Effects of Stereotypes and
Observer Pressure on Athletic Performance,”
Blacks were better free throw shooters study showed that positive stereo- Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology
than Whites. A third group was given types about African Americans actually 34 (2012), pp. 3–15.
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Perception and Individual Decision Making CHAPTER 6 191
expectations. If a manager expects big things from her people, they’re not likely
to let her down. Similarly, if she expects only minimal performance, they’ll likely
meet those low expectations. Expectations become reality. The self-fulfilling
prophecy has been found to affect the performance of students, soldiers, and
even accountants.23
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192 PART 2 The Individual
rational decision-making model Rational Decision Making We often think the best decision maker is rational
A decision-making model that
describes how individuals should and makes consistent, value-maximizing choices within specified constraints.26
behave in order to maximize some These decisions follow a six-step rational decision-making model.27 The six steps
outcome. are listed in Exhibit 6-3.
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Perception and Individual Decision Making CHAPTER 6 193
The rational decision-making model assumes that the decision maker has
complete information, is able to identify all the relevant options in an unbiased
manner, and chooses the option with the highest utility.28 Most decisions don’t
follow the rational model; people are usually content to find an acceptable or
reasonable solution to a problem rather than an optimal one. Choices tend to
be limited to the neighborhood of the problem symptom and the current alter-
native. As one expert in decision making put it, “Most significant decisions are
made by judgment, rather than by a defined prescriptive model.”29 People are
remarkably unaware of making suboptimal decisions.30
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194 PART 2 The Individual
the current state until we identify one that is “good enough”—that meets an
acceptable level of performance. Thus ends our search. So the solution repre-
sents a satisficing choice—the first acceptable one we encounter—rather than an
optimal one.
Satisficing is not always bad—a simple process may frequently be more sen-
sible than the traditional rational decision-making model.33 To use the rational
model, you need to gather a great deal of information about all the options,
compute applicable weights, and then calculate values across a huge number of
criteria. All these processes can cost time, energy, and money. If there are many
unknown weights and preferences, the fully rational model may not be any
more accurate than a best guess. Sometimes a fast-and-frugal process of solving
problems might be your best option. Returning to your college choice, would
it be best to fly around the country to visit dozens of potential campuses and
pay application fees for all? That depends: Can you know what type of college
is best for you when in high school, or is there a lot of unknown information
about how your interests are going to develop? It might be smarter to satisfice by
finding a few colleges that match most of your preferences and then focus your
attention on differentiating between those.
intuitive decision making An Intuition Perhaps the least rational way of making decisions is intuitive
nconscious process created out
u decision making, an unconscious process created from distilled experience.34
of distilled experience. Intuitive decision making occurs outside conscious thought; relies on holistic
associations, or links between disparate pieces of information; is fast; and is
affectively charged, meaning it engages the emotions.35
While intuition isn’t rational, it isn’t necessarily wrong. Nor does it always
contradict rational analysis; the two can complement each other. Nor is intu-
ition superstition, or the product of some magical or paranormal sixth sense.
Intuition is complex and based on years of experience and learning.
Does intuition help effective decision making? Researchers are divided, but
most experts are skeptical, in part because intuition is hard to measure and
analyze. Probably the best advice from one expert is: “Intuition can be very
useful as a way of setting up a hypothesis but is unacceptable as ‘proof,’” Use
hunches derived from your experience to speculate, yes, but always make sure
to test those hunches with objective data and rational, dispassionate analysis.36
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Perception and Individual Decision Making CHAPTER 6 195
Focus on Goals. Without goals, you can’t be rational, you don’t know what information you
need, you don’t know which information is relevant and which is irrelevant, you’ll find it
difficult to choose between alternatives, and you’re far more likely to experience regret
over the choices you make. Clear goals make decision making easier and help you eliminate
options that are inconsistent with your interests.
Look for Information That Disconfirms Your Beliefs. One of the most effective means for
counteracting overconfidence and the confirmation and hindsight biases is to actively look
for information that contradicts your beliefs and assumptions. When we overtly consider
various ways we could be wrong, we challenge our tendencies to think we’re smarter than
we actually are.
Don’t Try to Create Meaning out of Random Events. The educated mind has been trained
to look for cause-and-effect relationships. When something happens, we ask why. And
when we can’t find reasons, we often invent them. You have to accept that there are events
in life that are outside your control. Ask yourself if patterns can be meaningfully explained
or whether they are merely coincidence. Don’t attempt to create meaning out of
coincidence.
Increase Your Options. No matter how many options you’ve identified, your final choice can
be no better than the best of the option set you’ve selected. This argues for increasing your
decision alternatives and for using creativity in developing a wide range of diverse choices.
The more alternatives you can generate, and the more diverse those alternatives, the
greater your chance of finding an outstanding one.
Source: S. P. Robbins, Decide & Conquer: Making Winning Decisions and Taking Control of Your Life (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial
Times/Prentice Hall, 2004), pp. 164–168.
Individuals whose intellectual and interpersonal abilities are weakest are most
likely to overestimate their performance and ability.41 There’s also a negative
relationship between entrepreneurs’ optimism and performance of their new
ventures: the more optimistic, the less successful.42 The tendency to be too con-
fident about their ideas might keep some from planning how to avoid problems
that arise.
Investor overconfidence operates in a variety of ways.43 Finance professor
Terrance Odean says, “People think they know more than they do, and it costs
them.” Investors, especially novices, overestimate not just their skill in process-
ing information, but also the quality of the information they’re working with.
Test your own confidence level with investments: compare the long-term re-
turns of your stock market picks relative to index funds. You’ll find an overall
index performs as well as, or better than, hand-picked stocks. The main reason
many people resist index funds is that they think they’re better at picking stocks
than the average person, but most investors will only do as well as or only slightly
better than the market.
anchoring bias A tendency to Anchoring Bias Anchoring bias is a tendency to fixate on initial information and
f ixate on initial information, from fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information.44 As we discussed earlier
which one then fails to adequately in the chapter in relationship to employment interviews, our mind appears to
adjust for subsequent information.
give a disproportionate amount of emphasis to the first information it receives.
Anchors are widely used by people in professions in which persuasion skills are
important—advertising, management, politics, real estate, and law. Assume two
pilots—Jason and Glenda—have been laid off, and after an extensive search
their best offers are from Delta Airlines. Each would earn the average annual
pay of Delta’s narrow-body jet pilots: $126,000. Jason was previously a pilot for
Pinnacle, a regional airline where the average annual salary is $82,000. Glenda
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196 PART 2 The Individual
was a pilot for FedEx, where the average annual salary is $200,000. Which pilot
is most likely to accept, or be happiest with, Delta’s offer? Obviously Jason,
because he is anchored by the lower salary.45
Any time a negotiation takes place, so does anchoring. When a prospec-
tive employer asks how much you made in your prior job, your answer typically
anchors the employer’s offer. (Remember this when you negotiate your salary,
but set the anchor only as high as you truthfully can.) The more precise your
anchor, the smaller the adjustment. Some research suggests people think of
making an adjustment after an anchor is set as rounding off a number: If you
suggest a salary of $55,000, your boss will consider $50,000 to $60,000 a reason-
able range for negotiation, but if you mention $55,650, your boss is more likely
to consider $55,000 to $56,000 the range of likely values.46
Availability Bias More people fear flying than fear driving in a car. But if flying
on a commercial airline were as dangerous as driving, the equivalent of two 747s
filled to capacity would crash every week, killing all aboard. Because the media
give more attention to air accidents, we tend to overstate the risk of flying and
understate the risk of driving.
availability bias The tendency for Availability bias is our tendency to base judgments on information readily
people to base their judgments on available. Recent research indicates that a combination of readily available in-
information that is readily available formation and our previous direct experience with similar information is par-
to them.
ticularly impactful to our decision making. Events that evoke emotions, that
are particularly vivid, or that are more recent tend to be more available in our
memory, leading us to overestimate the chances of unlikely events such as being
in an airplane crash, suffering complications from medical treatment, or get-
ting fired.48 Availability bias can also explain why managers give more weight in
performance appraisals to recent employee behaviors than to behaviors of 6 or
9 months earlier, or why credit-rating agencies such as Moody’s or Standard &
Poor’s may issue overly positive ratings by relying on information presented by
debt issuers, who have an incentive to offer data favorable to their case.49
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choose only information that supports our dedication. We might, for example,
weight opinions in favor of reinvestment as more credible than opinions for
divestment.51
A recent meta-analysis revealed some interesting findings about what causes
us to escalate our commitment after initial failure. First, it doesn’t appear to
matter whether we chose the failing course of action or it was assigned to us—
we feel responsible and escalate in either case. Second, the sharing of decision
authority—such as when others review the choice we made—can lead to higher
escalation because the original decision is more public (thus individuals feel a
stronger need to justify the original decision by continuing). Finally, awareness
of sunk costs associated with the decision reduces escalation when individuals
feel responsible (they now have an “escape clause”).52
Randomness Error Most of us like to think we have some control over our
world. Our tendency to believe we can predict the outcome of random events is
randomness error The tendency the randomness error.
of individuals to believe that they Decision making suffers when we try to create meaning in random events,
can predict the outcome of random particularly when we turn imaginary patterns into superstitions.53 These can be
events.
completely contrived (“I never make important decisions on Friday the 13th”)
or they can evolve from a reinforced past pattern of behavior (Tiger Woods
often wears a red shirt during a golf tournament’s final round because he won
many junior tournaments wearing red shirts). Decisions based on random oc-
currences can handicap us when they affect our judgment or bias our major
decisions.
Risk Aversion Mathematically, we should find a 50–50 flip of the coin for $100
to be worth as much as a sure promise of $50. After all, the expected value of the
gamble over a number of trials is $50. However, nearly everyone but committed
gamblers would rather have the sure thing than a risky prospect.54 For many
people, a 50–50 flip of a coin even for $200 might not be worth as much as a
sure promise of $50, even though the gamble is mathematically worth twice as
risk aversion The tendency to much! This tendency to prefer a sure thing over a risky outcome is risk aversion.
prefer a sure gain of a moderate Risk aversion has important implications. To offset the risks inherent in a
amount over a riskier outcome, commission-based wage, companies pay commissioned employees considerably
even if the riskier outcome might
have a higher expected payoff. more than they do those on straight salaries. Risk-averse employees will stick
with the established way of doing their jobs, rather than taking a chance on
innovative methods. Sticking with a strategy that has worked in the past mini-
mizes risk, but it will lead to stagnation. Ambitious people with power that can
be taken away (most managers) appear to be especially risk averse, perhaps be-
cause they don’t want to lose on a gamble everything they’ve worked so hard to
achieve.55 CEOs at risk of termination are exceptionally risk averse, even when
a riskier investment strategy is in their firms’ best interests.56
Risk preference is sometimes reversed: People prefer to take chances when
trying to prevent a negative outcome.57 They would rather take a 50–50 gamble
on losing $100 than accept the certain loss of $50. Thus they will risk losing a lot
of money at trial rather than settle out of court. Trying to cover up wrongdoing
instead of admitting a mistake, despite the risk of truly catastrophic press coverage
or even jail time, is another example. Stressful situations can make risk prefer-
ences stronger. People will more likely engage in risk-seeking behavior for nega-
tive outcomes, and risk-averse behavior for positive outcomes, when under stress.58
hindsight bias The tendency to
believe falsely, after an outcome of
an event is actually known, that one Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe falsely, after the
would have accurately predicted outcome is known, that we would have accurately predicted it.59 When we have
that outcome. feedback on the outcome, we seem good at concluding it was obvious.
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For instance, the home video rental industry collapsed as online distribu-
tion outlets ate away at the market.60 Hollywood Video declared bankruptcy in
May 2010 and began liquidating its assets; Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy in
September 2010. Some have suggested that if these organizations had leveraged
their brand and distribution resources effectively, developed web-based delivery
sooner, as Netflix did, and added low-cost distribution in grocery and conve-
nience stores, which Redbox offers, they could have avoided failure. While that
seems obvious now in hindsight, tempting us to think we would have predicted
it, many experts with good information failed to predict these two major trends
that would upend the industry.
After the fact, it is easy to see that a combination of automated and mail-
order distribution would outperform the traditional brick-and-mortar movie
rental business. Similarly, in the recent housing bubble, former Merrill Lynch
CEO John Thain—and other Wall Street executives—missed what now seems
obvious—that housing prices were inflated, too many risky loans were being
made, and the values of many “securities” were based on fragile assumptions.
Though criticisms of decision makers may have merit, as Malcolm Gladwell,
author of Blink and The Tipping Point, writes, “What is clear in hindsight is rarely
clear before the fact.”61
Hindsight bias reduces our ability to learn from the past. It lets us think
we’re better predictors than we are and can make us falsely confident. If your
actual predictive accuracy is only 40 percent but you think it’s 90, you’re likely
to be less skeptical about your predictive skills.
We turn here to factors that influence how people make decisions and the
degree to which they are susceptible to errors and biases. We discuss individual
differences and organizational constraints.
Individual Differences
7 Explain how individual
differences and
As we discussed, decision making in practice is characterized by bounded ra-
tionality, common biases and errors, and the use of intuition. Individual differ-
organizational constraints ences also create deviations from the rational model. In this section, we look at
affect decision making. the differences in turn.
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Mental Ability We know people with higher levels of mental ability are able
to process information more quickly, solve problems more accurately, and
learn faster, so you might expect them also to be less susceptible to common
decision errors. However, mental ability appears to help people avoid only
some of these.68 Smart people are just as likely to fall prey to anchoring,
overconfidence, and escalation of commitment, probably because just being
smart doesn’t alert you to the possibility you’re too confident or emotionally
defensive. It’s not that intelligence never matters. Once warned about
decision-making errors, more intelligent people learn more quickly to avoid
them. They are also better able to avoid logical errors like false syllogisms or
incorrect interpretation of data.
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glOBalization!
D
oes living in multiple cultures or was “integrative complexity”—the de- movie trailers from both U.S. and Chi-
countries improve decision making? gree to which they approached prob- nese cultures and others a similar pre-
One recent three-part study lems from multiple points of view (the sentation with content from only U.S.
looked at the effect of multicultural researchers measured this by asking or only Chinese culture. They also ma-
identity on individual creativity and ca- participants to describe a problem and nipulated Israeli multicultural identity
reer success. The researchers defined having independent evaluators rate by asking Israeli students to think and
multicultural identity as a strong identi- their responses). write about a multicultural experience.
fication with the culture in both the host A second study focused on the Even when multicultural identity was
country where the subject currently effect of multicultural identities on manipulated, it reduced intergroup
lives and the home country where the intergroup biases, or the degree to biases.
person grew up. One finding was that which individuals hold stereotypes or Thus, it seems that multicultural-
European MBA students with multicul- prejudices about those outside the ism does make for better decisions, at
tural identities were more creative on group with which they identify. For least as far as creativity and lack of bias
three different tasks. Another was that this study, researchers conducted six are concerned.
multicultural U.S. MBA students had studies of Caucasian American, Asian
higher levels of innovation, measured American, and Israeli college students.
in terms of the new ventures they In all six studies, those who had mul- Sources: C. T. Tadmor, Y. Hong, M. M.
started and novel products or services ticultural identities were less likely to Chao, F. Wiruchnipawan, and W. Wang,
“Multicultural Experiences Reduce Inter-
they created. The third part of the study endorse stereotypical beliefs against group Bias Through Epistemic Unfreez-
showed that Israeli managers with mul- members outside their ethnic group, ing,” Journal of Personality and Social
ticultural identities were rated as higher even though in three of the studies, Psychology 103 (2012), pp. 750–772; and
C. T. Tadmor, A. D. Galinsky, and W. W.
performers and more promotable than multiculturalism was manipulated by Maddux, “Getting the Most Out of Liv-
Israeli managers who scored low on the the researchers. In two studies, for ing Abroad: Biculturalism and Integrative
multicultural identity measure. All three instance, they first showed some re- Complexity as Key Drivers of Creative and
Professional Success,” Journal of Person-
parts revealed that the reason multicul- spondents a 20-minute PowerPoint ality and Social Psychology 103 (2012),
turals were more creative and effective presentation with pictures, music, and pp. 520–542.
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Organizational Constraints
Organizations can constrain decision makers, creating deviations from the rational
model. For instance, managers shape decisions to reflect the organization’s per-
formance evaluation and reward system, to comply with formal regulations, and to
meet organizationally imposed time constraints. Precedent can also limit decisions.
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202 PART 2 The Individual
make it difficult, if not impossible, for managers to gather all the information
before making a final choice.
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204 PART 2 The Individual
An Ethical Choice
Choosing to Lie
M
ark Twain wrote, “The wise others, and we tend to engage in 3. Reward honesty. “The most difficult
thing is for us diligently to what Bazerman and Tenbrunsel call thing is to recognize that sometimes
train ourselves to lie thought- “moral hypocrisy”—we think we’re we too are blinded by our own incen-
fully.” Not everyone agrees that lying more moral than we are. tives,” writes Dan Ariely, “because we
is wrong. But we probably agree that don’t see how our conflicts of inter-
2. Trust, but verify. A recent study
people do lie, including each of us, to est work on us.” So if we want more
showed that lying is learned at a
varying degrees. And most of us prob- honesty, we have to provide greater
very young age. When a toy was
ably agree that if we lied less, organiza- incentives for the truth, and more dis-
placed out of view, an experimenter
tions and society would be better off. incentives for lying and cheating.
told young children not to look
So how might that be done? Research
at the toy and went out of sight.
conducted by behavioral scientists
More than 80 percent of the chil- Sources: Based on D. Ariely, The Honest
suggests some steps to recovery.
dren looked at the toy. When asked Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie
1. Stop lying to ourselves. We lie to whether they had looked, 25 percent to Everyone—and Especially Ourselves
(New York: Harper, 2012); K. Canavan, “Even
ourselves about how much we lie. of 2-1/2 year-olds lied, compared Nice People Cheat Sometimes,” The Wall
Specifically, many studies reveal to 90 percent of 4 year-olds. Why Street Journal (August 8, 2012), p. 4B;
that we deem ourselves much less do we learn to lie? Because we M. H. Bazerman and Ann E. Tenbrunsel,
Blind Spots: Why We Fail to Do What’s
likely to lie than we judge others often get away with it. Negotiation Right and What to Do About It (Princeton,
to be. At a collective level, this is research shows that we are more NJ: Princeton University Press, 2012); A. D.
impossible—everyone can’t be likely to lie in the future when our Evans and K. Lee, “Emergence of Lying in
Very Young Children,” Developmental Psy-
below above average in their pro- lies have succeeded or gone unde- chology (2013); and L. Zhou Y. Sung, and
pensity to lie. So step 1 is to admit tected in the past. Managers need D. Zhang, “Deception Performance in Online
the truth: We underestimate the to identify areas where lying is Group Negotiation and Decision Making: The
Effects of Deception Experience and Decep-
degree to which we lie, we over- costly and find ways to shine a light tion Skill,” Group Decision and Negotiation
estimate our morality compared to on it when it occurs. 22 (2013), pp. 153–172.
Creative Behavior
Creative behavior occurs in four steps, each of which leads to the next:
1. Problem formulation. Any act of creativity begins with a problem that the
problem formulation The stage of behavior is designed to solve. Thus, problem formulation is defined as the
creative behavior which involved stage of creative behavior in which we identify a problem or opportunity
identifying problem or opportunity that requires a solution as yet unknown. For example, artist/entrepreneur
that requires a solution that is as
yet unknown. Marshall Carbee and businessperson John Bennett founded Eco Safety
Products after discovering that even paints declared safe by the Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA) emit hazardous chemical compounds.
Thus, Bennett’s development of artist-safe soy-based paint began with iden-
tifying a safety problem with paints currently on the market.76
information gathering The stage of
creative behavior when possible 2. Information gathering. Given a problem, the solution is rarely directly
solutions to a problem incubate in at hand. We need time to learn more and to process that learning. Thus,
individual’s mind. information gathering is the stage of creative behavior when possible
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Creative behavior
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206 PART 2 The Individual
Source: Based on T. Henneman, “Bright Ideas,” Workforce Management (January 2013), pp. 18–25.
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What is the role of culture? A recent nation-level study suggests that coun-
tries scoring high on Hofstede’s culture dimension of individuality (discussed
in Chapter 5) are more creative.85 Western countries like the United States,
Italy, and Belgium score high on individuality, and South American and
Eastern countries like China, Colombia, and Pakistan score low; does this mean
Western cultures are more creative? Some evidence suggests this is true. One
study compared the creative projects of German and Chinese college students,
some of whom were studying in their homeland, and some of whom were study-
ing abroad. An independent panel of Chinese and German judges determined
that the German students were most creative and that Asian German students
were more creative than domestic Chinese students. This suggested that the
German culture was more creative.86 However, even if some cultures are more
creative on average, there is always strong variation within cultures. Put another
way, there are millions of Chinese more creative than their U.S. counterparts.
Good leadership matters to creativity too. A recent study of more than
100 teams working in a large bank revealed that when the leader behaved in
a punitive, unsupportive manner, the teams were less creative.87 On the other
hand, when leaders are encouraging in tone, run their units in a transparent
fashion, and encourage the development of their employees, the individuals
they supervise are more creative.88
As we will learn in Chapter 10, more work today is being done in teams, and
many people believe diversity will increase team creativity. Past research, unfor-
tunately, has suggested that diverse teams are not more creative. More recently,
however, one study of Dutch teams revealed that when team members were
explicitly asked to understand and consider the point of view of the other team
members (an exercise called perspective-taking), diverse teams were more cre-
ative than those with less diversity.89 A study of 68 Chinese teams reported that
diversity was positively related to team creativity only when the team’s leader was
inspirational and instilled members with confidence.90 Another study in a mul-
tinational drug company found that teams from diverse business functions were
more creative when they shared knowledge of each other’s areas of expertise.91
Collectively, these studies show that diverse teams can be more creative, but only
under certain conditions.
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208 PART 2 The Individual
How Creative Am I?
S A L
In the Self-Assessment Library (available in MyManagementLab), take assessment
SELF-ASSESSMENT LIBRARY I.A.5 (How Creative Am I?).
Summary
Individuals base their behavior not on the way their external environment
actually is, but rather on the way they see it or believe it to be. An understand-
ing of the way people make decisions can help us explain and predict behav-
ior, but few important decisions are simple or unambiguous enough for the
rational model’s assumptions to apply. We find individuals looking for solutions
that satisfice rather than optimize, injecting biases and prejudices into the deci-
sion process, and relying on intuition. Managers should encourage creativity in
employees and teams to create a route to innovative decision-making.
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Perception and Individual Decision Making CHAPTER 6 209
I U
n the Myth or Science? feature in this chapter, we discussed nfortunately, stereotypes are alive and well. It is our
the harmful effects of stereotypes, even positive ones. For- ability to easily see them that causes us to believe they
tunately, stereotypes are dying a slow but inexorable death. are disappearing.
Whether they are about women, racial or ethnic minorities, or Research shows that when individuals hold both positive
gays, each passing year brings evidence that stereotypes are and negative stereotypes, they bury the negative stereotypes
losing their hold—thanks to the progress of society, but also when communicating with others. Why? Because they intui-
thanks to younger individuals replacing older ones in the work- tively know that expressing these stereotypes may make them
force. Younger people are less likely to endorse stereotypes look bad to others, and research shows this is the case—when
across the board. someone communicates a negative stereotype, listeners think
In the 1930s, when asked whether African Americans were less of the communicator, even when they agree. This doesn’t
“superstitious,” 84 percent agreed; 75 percent endorsed a ste- mean negative stereotypes reverse themselves over time.
reotype that African Americans were “lazy.” Thankfully, those So, we cannot take expressed stereotypes, or the lack
stereotypes are nearly gone. Results vary by study, but today thereof, at face value. A prejudice unexpressed is no less a
between 0 and 10 percent of individuals agree with those ste- prejudice. Moreover, we know that over time, people conceal
reotypes. These results show that racism still exists, but they negative stereotypes in favor of emphasizing the positive ones.
also show it is waning. This tendency to “accentuate the positive, hide the negative”
Even when people endorse stereotypes, their consensus has been found to increase when individuals were communi-
has weakened dramatically over time. For example, if forced to cating publicly (to a casual acquaintance) rather than privately
choose ten adjectives to describe a group of people, at one time (to a close friend).
people converged on a few (often incorrect) traits. Today, their If stereotypes really are waning, why would only negative
lists will vary dramatically by person. stereotypes have declined over time? Because people in 2014
There is another factor at play here: the media. Media re- are better than those in 1964 or 1984? No, if people have positive
ports are not a good source of scientific information, yet to listen stereotypes, they also have negative ones. Nowadays, it’s just
to them, you’d think stereotypes were as alive as ever. Fortu- the positive ones they’re willing to admit.
nately, that’s not the case, but when stereotypes fade, it’s not For example, nearly half (48.9 percent) of individuals de-
newsworthy. Someday soon, stereotypic thinking will be as ret- scribe Italians as “passionate”—and that has remained stable
rograde as outright acts of racism or sexism. We should count over time—whereas only 1.5 percent now describe them as
ourselves lucky to live in societies and work in organizations “cowardly”—and that has declined greatly over time. We think
where such thinking and behavior are viewed quite negatively. this is progress, but it’s less than it seems. All stereotypes are
undesirable, positive stereotypes beget negative ones, and the
negative ones haven’t gone away; they’ve just been driven un-
derground. We know from research that when such prejudices
are concealed, they are harder to change. If a view is never ad-
dressed openly, it can never be argued against.
Time and the entrance of younger individuals into society
and organizations have not eliminated or necessarily even re-
duced stereotypes. Ironically, even the assertion that younger
workers are less likely to hold stereotypes than older ones relies
on a stereotype (that older people are more likely to be preju-
diced)! We need look no further for proof of their existence.
Sources: J. L. Skorinko and S. A. Sinclair, “Perspective Taking Can Increase Stereotyping: The Role of Apparent Stereotype
Confirmation,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 49 (2013), pp. 10–18; and H. B. Bergsieker, L. M. Leslie, V. S. Constantine,
and S. T. Fiske, “Stereotyping by Omission: Eliminate the Negative, Accentuate the Positive,” Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology 102 (2012), pp. 1214–1238.
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210 PART 2 The Individual
END-OF-CHAPTER REVIEW
MyManagementLab
6-1 What is perception, and what factors influence our 6-6 What are some common decision biases or errors
perception? people make?
6-2 Explain attribution theory and its three determinants. 6-7 In what way is decision making influenced by
State the implications of attribution theory in explaining individual differences and organizational constraints?
organizational behavior.
6-8 What are the three ethical decision criteria, and how
6-3 What shortcuts do people frequently use in making do they differ?
judgments about others?
6-9 Explain your understanding of creativity, and the
6-4 There is a link between decision making and importance of the three-stage model of creativity.
perception, but how does one affect the other?
Sources: These problems are based on examples provided in M. H. Bazerman, Judgment in Managerial
Decision Making, 3rd ed. (New York: Wiley, 1994); Fortune 500 2013 list, [Link]
magazines/fortune/fortune500/2013/full_list/[Link]?iid=F500_sp_full, accessed May 28, 2013.
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212 PART 2 The Individual
success in recent years has affected his decision making. to talk about Gack’s possible incompetence. Top manage-
He now drafts a proposal faster, but he also considers less ment has looked at Pieterson’s success and now wonders
information. In some cases, he even takes competitor whether to impose John’s style on Jack.
prices as a starting point and simply adapts those a little.
Questions
Still, the change doesn’t seem to harm his performance,
6-19. What biases in decision making can be identified in
and orders keep coming in.
the performances of both Pieterson and Gack? How
Jack Gack, located at a branch in Finland, performs the
can the identified biases be overcome?
same job as Pieterson. However, Gack has been very unsuc-
6-20. Is rational decision making better than intuitive de-
cessful lately. Of course he makes rational decisions, but
cision making? If so, when?
he also includes a fair share of intuition. Although he is
6-21. Should top management change Gack’s decision-
often criticized, Gack is not willing to let go of his intu-
making style?
ition. He truly believes that external factors contributed
to his bad performance. Subordinates have also started
Sources: Charbel Aoun and Hasan Shahin, “Rationalizing under Uncertainty,” Meapro Consulting, www
.[Link]. The case was adapted to provide materials for class discussions. The authors do not intend
to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a situation. To protect confidentiality, the authors
may have disguised certain names and other identifying information, without jeopardizing the essence
of the situation.
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MyManagementLab
Go to [Link] for the f ollowing
Assisted-graded writing questions:
6-25. Do you think creativity is “born” (inherent in the individual) or “made”
(a product of opportunity and reinforcement)? Compare what we know of
the lives of Nicholoas D’Aloisio and Sara Blakely with those of other creative
individuals you know personally.
6-26. MyManagementLab Only—comprehensive writing assignment for this
chapter.
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