Probability
Distributions
Dr. Charu Arora
Assistant Professor
Applied Science
Some Discrete Probability Distributions:
Discrete Uniform Distribution:
If the discrete random variable X assumes the values x1, x2, …,xk
with equal probabilities, then X has the discrete uniform
distribution given by:
Note:
· f(x)=f(x;k)=P(X=x)
k is called the parameter of the distribution.
Example 1 :
Experiment: tossing a balanced die.
► Sample space: S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
► Each sample point of S occurs with the same
probability 1/6.
► Let X= the number observed when tossing a balanced
die.
► The probability distribution of X is,
Result:
If the discrete random variable X has a discrete uniform
distribution with parameter k, then the mean and the variance of
X are;
Var(X) = σ2 =
Uniform Distribution
Also E(X)= (k+1)/2 (why?)
Hint: (1/k).k(k+1)/2 = (k+1)/2
Similarly, Var (X)=(k+1)(k-1)/12
Example 5.3:
Find E(X) and Var(X) in Example 1.
Solution:
E(X) = μ =
Var(X) = σ2 =
Binomial Distribution:
Bernoulli Trial:
· Bernoulli trial is an experiment with only two possible
outcomes.
· The two possible outcomes are labeled:
success (s) and failure (f)
· The probability of success is P(s)=p and the probability
of failure is P(f)= q = 1−p.
· Examples:
1. Tossing a coin (success=H, failure=T, and p=P(H))
2. Inspecting an item (success=defective, failure=non-
defective, and p=P(defective))
Bernoulli Process:
Bernoulli process is an experiment that must satisfy the
following properties:
1. The experiment consists of n repeated Bernoulli trials.
2. The probability of success, P(s)=p, remains constant
from trial to trial.
3. The repeated trials are independent; that is the outcome
of one trial has no effect on the outcome of any other trial.
Binomial Random Variable:
Consider the random variable :
X = The number of successes in n trials in a Bernoulli
process.
The random variable X has a binomial distribution with
parameters n (number of trials) and p (probability of success),
and we write:
X ~ Binomial(n,p) or X~b(x;n,p)
The probability distribution of X is given by:
We can write the probability distribution of X in table as follows.
x f(x)=P(X=x)=b(x;n,p)
0
n−1
Total 1.00
Example 2:
Suppose that 25% of the products of a manufacturing process
are defective. Three items are selected at random, inspected,
and classified as defective (D) or non-defective (N). Find the
probability distribution of the number of defective items.
Solution:
· Experiment: selecting 3 items at random, inspected, and
classified as (D) or (N).
· The sample space is
S={DDD,DDN,DND,DNN,NDD,NDN,NND,NNN}
· Let X = the number of defective items in the sample
· We need to find the probability distribution of X.
(1) First Solution: Outcome Probability X
NNN 0
NND 1
NDN 1
NDD 2
DNN 1
DND 2
DDN 2
DDD 3
The probability
distribution
of X xis, f(x)=P(X=x)
(2) Second Solution:
Bernoulli trial is the process of inspecting the item. The results
are success=D or failure=N, with probability of success
P(s)=25/100=1/4=0.25.
The experiments is a Bernoulli process with:
· number of trials: n=3
· Probability of success: p=1/4=0.25
· X ~ Binomial(n,p)=Binomial(3,1/4)
· The probability distribution of X is given by:
The probability
distribution of X is,
x f(x)=P(X=x
)
=b(x;3,1/4)
0 27/64
1 27/64
2 9/64
3 1/64
Result:
The mean and the variance of the binomial distribution b(x;n,p)
are:
μ=np
σ2 = n p (1 −p)
Example:
In the previous example, find the expected value (mean) and
the variance of the number of defective items.
Solution:
· X = number of defective items
· We need to find E(X)=μ and Var(X)=σ2
· We found that X ~ Binomial(n,p)=Binomial(3,1/4)
· .n=3 and p=1/4
The expected number of defective items is
E(X)=μ = n p = (3) (1/4) = 3/4 = 0.75
The variance of the number of defective items is
Var(X)=σ2 = n p (1 −p) = (3) (1/4) (3/4) = 9/16 = 0.5625
Example:
In the previous example, find the following probabilities:
(1) The probability of getting at least two defective items.
(2) The probability of getting at most two defective items.
Solution:
X ~ Binomial(3,1/4)
x .f(x)=P(X=x)=b(x;3,1/4)
0 27/64
1 27/64
2 9/64
3 1/64
(1) The probability of getting at least two defective items:
P(X≥2)=P(X=2)+P(X=3)= f(2)+f(3)=
(2) The probability of getting at most two defective item:
P(X≤2) = P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)
= f(0)+f(1)+f(2) =
or
P(X≤2)= 1−P(X>2) = 1−P(X=3) = 1− f(3) =
Hypergeometric Distribution :
· Suppose there is a population with 2 types of elements:
1-st Type = success
2-nd Type = failure
· N= population size
· K= number of elements of the 1-st type
· N −K = number of elements of the 2-nd type
· We select a sample of n elements at random from the
population.
· Let X = number of elements of 1-st type (number of
successes) in the sample.
· We need to find the probability distribution of X.
There are to two methods of selection:
1. selection with replacement
2. selection without replacement
(1) If we select the elements of the sample at random and
with replacement, then
X ~ Binomial(n,p); where
(2) Now, suppose we select the elements of the sample at
random and without replacement. When the selection is made
without replacement, the random variable X has a hyper
geometric distribution with parameters N, n, and K. and we write
X~h(x;N,n,K).
Note that the values of X must satisfy:
0≤x≤K and 0≤n−x≤ N−K
⇔
0≤x≤K and n−N+K≤ x≤ n
Hypergeometric Distribution
Also E(X)= (nK)/N
Hint: (1/k).k(k+1)/2 = (k+1)/2
Similarly, Var (X)=NK(N-K)(N-n)/N^2(N-1)
Example:
Lots of 40 components each are called acceptable if they
contain no more than 3 defectives. The procedure for sampling
the lot is to select 5 components at random (without
replacement) and to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is
the probability that exactly one defective is found in the sample
if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot.
Solution:
· Let X= number of defectives in the sample
· N=40, K=3, and n=5
· X has a hypergeometric distribution with parameters
N=40, n=5, and K=3.
· X~h(x;N,n,K)=h(x;40,5,3).
· The probability distribution of X is given by:
But the values of X must satisfy:
0≤x≤K and n−N+K≤ x≤ n ⇔ 0≤x≤3 and −42≤ x≤ 5
Therefore, the probability distribution of X is given by:
Now, the probability that exactly one defective is found in the
sample is
.f(1)=P(X=1)=h(1;40,5,3)=
Question?
► A bag contains 50 light bulbs of which 5 are defective
and 45 are not. A Quality Control Inspector randomly
samples 4 bulbs without replacement. Let X = the
number of defective bulbs selected. Find the
probability mass function, f(x), of the discrete random
variable X.
Result.
► Note: One of the key features of the
hypergeometric distribution is that it is
associated with sampling without replacement.
When the samples are drawn with
replacement, the discrete random
variable follows what is called the binomial
distribution.
► Note: In cases where the sample size is
relatively large compared to the population, a
discrete distribution called hypergeometric
may be useful.
Question 1. A lake contains 600 fish, eighty (80) of
which have been tagged by scientists. A researcher
randomly catches 15 fish from the lake. Find a formula
for the probability mass function of the number of fish in
the researcher's sample which are tagged.
Question 2. Let the random variable X denote the
number of aces in a five-card hand dealt from a
standard 52-card deck. Find a formula for the
probability mass function of X.
Question 3: Determine whether the given scenario describes
a binomial setting. Justify your answer.
(a) Genetics says that the genes children receive from their
parents are independent from one child to another. Each
child of a particular set of parents has probability 0.25 of
having type O blood. Suppose these parents have 5 children.
Count the number of children with type O blood.
(b). Shuffle a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Turn
over the first 10 cards, one at a time. Record the
number of aces you observe.
Question 4: Each child of a particular set of parents has
probability 0.25 of having type O blood. Suppose these
parents have 5 children. What’s the probability that exactly
one of the five children has type O blood?
Solution 3 (a)
• Binary? “Success” 5 has type O blood. “Failure” 5 doesn’t have
type O blood.
• Independent? Knowing one child’s blood type tells you nothing
about another child’s because they inherit genes independently
from their parents.
• Number? n = 5
• Same probability? p = 0.25
Solution 3 (b)
• Binary? “Success” get an ace. “Failure” don’t get an ace.
• Independent? No. If the first card you turn over is an
ace, then the next card is less likely to be an ace
because you’re not replacing the top card in the deck. If
the first card isn’t an ace, the second card is more likely
to be an ace.
► This is not a binomial setting because the independent
condition is not met.
Poisson Distribution:
• It is discrete distribution.
• The discrete r. v. X is said to have a Poisson
distribution with parameter (average) λ if
the probability distribution of X is given by
where e = 2.71828.
We write:
X ~ Poisson ( λ )
• The mean (average) of Poisson (λ) is
μ= λ
• The variance is:
• The Poisson distribution is used to model a
discrete r. v. which is a count of how many
times a specified random event occurred in an
interval of time or space.
Example:
• No. of patients in a waiting room in an hour.
• No. of serious injuries in a particular factory
in a month.
• No. of calls received by a telephone operator
inNote:
a day.
•λ No. of average
is the rates in each house
(mean) in distribution.
of the a particular city.
If X = The number of calls received in a
month and
then:
(i) Y = The no. calls received in a year.
Y ~ Poisson (λ*), where λ*=12λ
Y ~ Poisson (12λ)
(ii) W = The no. calls received in a day.
W ~ Poisson (λ*), where λ*=λ/30
W ~ Poisson (λ/30)
Example
Suppose that the number of snake
bites cases seen in a year has a
Poisson distribution with average 6
bite cases.
1. What is the probability that in a
year:
(i) The no. of snake bite cases will
be 7?
(ii) The no. of snake bite cases will
be less than 2?
2- What is the probability that in 2 years there
will be 10 bite cases?
3- What is the probability that in a month
there will be no snake bite cases?
Solution:
(1) X = no. of snake bite cases in a year.
X ~ Poisson (6) (λ=6)
(i
)(ii
)
Y = no of snake bite cases in 2 years
Y ~ Poisson(12)
3- W = no. of snake bite cases in a month.
W ~ Poisson (0.5)
Note: Poisson distribution is for
counts—if events happen at a
constant rate over time, the
Poisson distribution gives the
probability of X number of events
occurring in time T.