Probability

Probability defines the likelihood of occurrence of an event. There are many real-life situations in
which we may have to predict the outcome of an event. We may be sure or not sure of the results
of an event. In such cases, we say that there is a probability of this event to occur or not occur.
Probability generally has great applications in games, in business to make predictions, and also it
has extensive applications in this new area of artificial intelligence.
The probability of an event can be calculated by the probability formula by simply dividing the
favourable number of outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. The value of the
probability of an event happening can lie between 0 and 1 because the favourable number of
outcomes can never be more than the total number of outcomes. Also, the favorable number of
outcomes cannot be negative. Let us discuss the basics of probability in detail in the following
sections.
What is Probability?
Probability can be defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number
of outcomes of an event. For an experiment having 'n' number of outcomes, the number of
favorable outcomes can be denoted by x. The formula to calculate the probability of an event is as
follows.
Probability(Event) = Favorable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n
Terminology of Probability Theory
Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted to produce an outcome is called an experiment.
Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of an experiment together constitute a sample space.
For example, the sample space of tossing a coin is {head, tail}.
Favorable Outcome: An event that has produced the desired result or expected event is called a
favorable outcome. For example, when we roll two dice, the possible/favorable outcomes of
getting the sum of numbers on the two dice as 4 are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).
Trial: A trial denotes doing a random experiment.
Random Experiment: An experiment that has a well-defined set of outcomes is called a random
experiment. For example, when we toss a coin, we know that we would get ahead or tail, but we
are not sure which one will appear.
Event: The total number of outcomes of a random experiment is called an event.
Equally Likely Events: Events that have the same chances or probability of occurring are called
equally likely events. The outcome of one event is independent of the other. For example, when
we toss a coin, there are equal chances of getting a head or a tail.
Exhaustive Events: When the set of all outcomes of an event is equal to the sample space, we call
it an exhaustive event.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot happen simultaneously are called mutually
exclusive events. For example, the climate can be either hot or cold. We cannot experience the
same weather simultaneously.
Events in Probability
In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment or a subset of the sample
space. If P(E) represents the probability of an event E, then, we have,
• P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible event.
• P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
Suppose, we are given two events, "A" and "B", then the probability of event A, P(A) > P(B) if
and only if event "A" is more likely to occur than the event "B". Sample space(S) is the set of all
of the possible outcomes of an experiment and n(S) represents the number of outcomes in the
sample space.
P(E)
P(E’)
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can also conclude that, P(E) + P(E’) = 1
Probability Formula
The probability equation defines the likelihood of the happening of an event. It is the ratio of
favorable outcomes to the total favorable outcomes. The probability formula can be expressed as,

Different Probability Formulas

Probability formula with addition rule: Whenever an event is the union of two other events, say
A and B, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

Probability formula with the complementary rule: Whenever an event is the complement of
another event, specifically, if A is an event, then P(not A) = 1 - P(A) or P(A') = 1 - P(A).
P(A) + P(A′) = 1.
Probability formula with the conditional rule: When event A is already known to have occurred,
the probability of event B is known as conditional probability and is given by:
P(B∣A) = P(A∩B)/P(A)
Probability formula with multiplication rule: Whenever an event is the intersection of two other
events, that is, events A and B need to occur simultaneously. Then
• P(A ∩ B) = P(A)⋅P(B) (in case of independent events)
• P(A∩B) = P(A)⋅P(B∣A) (in case of dependent events)
Calculating Probability
In an experiment, the probability of an event is the possibility of that event occurring. The
probability of any event is a value between (and including) "0" and "1". Follow the steps below
for calculating probability of an event A:
• Step 1: Find the sample space of the experiment and count the elements. Denote it by n(S).
• Step 2: Find the number of favorable outcomes and denote it by n(A).
• Step 3: To find probability, divide n(A) by n(S). i.e., P(A) = n(A)/n(S).
Here are some examples that well describe the process of finding probability.
Example 1: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a dice is rolled by using the
probability formula.
Solution
To find:
Probability of getting a number less than 5
Given: Sample space, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting a number less than 5. Then A = {1,2,3,4}
So, n(A) = 4
Using the probability equation,
P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))

p(A) = 4/6
m = 2/3
Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5 is 2/3.
Example 2: What is the probability of getting a sum of 9 when two dice are thrown?
Solution:
There is a total of 36 possibilities when we throw two dice.
To get the desired outcome i.e., 9, we can have the following favorable outcomes.
(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6).
There are 4 favorable outcomes.
Probability of an event P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) ÷ (Total outcomes in a sample
space)
Probability of getting number 9 = 4 ÷ 36 = 1/9
Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of 9 is 1/9.

Coin Toss Probability

Let us now look into the probability of tossing a coin. Quite often in games like cricket, for making
a decision as to who would bowl or bat first, we sometimes use the tossing of a coin and decide
based on the outcome of the toss. Let us check how we can use the concept of probability in the
tossing of a single coin. Further, we shall also look into the tossing of two and three coins.
Tossing a Coin
A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head, and a tail. The concept of probability which is
the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes can be used in finding probability
of getting the head and the probability of getting a tail.
Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample Space = {H, T}; H: Head, T: Tail
• P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2
• P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = 1/2
Tossing Two Coins
In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four (= 22) outcomes. The probability formula
can be used to find the probability of two heads, one head, no head, and a similar probability can
be calculated for the number of tails. The probability calculations for the two heads are as follows.
Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
• P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4
• P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
• P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4
Tossing Three Coins
The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins simultaneously is equal to 23 = 8. For these
outcomes, we can find the probability of getting one head, two heads, three heads, and no head. A
similar probability can also be calculated for the number of tails.
Total number of outcomes = 23 = 8 Sample Space = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T, H), (T, H, H),
(T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}
• P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8
• P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one head/Total Outcomes = 3/8
• P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads /Total Outcomes = 3/8
• P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8
Dice Roll Probability
Many games use dice to decide the moves of players across the games. A dice has six possible
outcomes and the outcomes of a dice is a game of chance and can be obtained by using the concepts
of probability. Some games also use two dice, and there are numerous probabilities that can be
calculated for outcomes using two dice. Let us now check the outcomes, their probabilities for one
dice and two dice respectively.
Rolling One Dice
The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here
we shall compute the following few probabilities to help in better understanding the concept of
probability on rolling one dice.
• P(Even Number) = Number of even number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
• P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
• P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
Rolling Two Dice
The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 62 = 36. The following image shows the
sample space of 36 outcomes on rolling two dice.
Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice. The probabilities are as follows.
• Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6
• Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice = 11/36
• Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6
As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6 possibilities. When we roll two dice, there are 36
(= 62) possibilities. When we roll 3 dice we get 216 (= 63) possibilities. So a general formula to
represent the number of outcomes on rolling 'n' dice is 6n.
Probability of Drawing Cards
A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into four suits of clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades. Each
of the clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades have 13 cards each, which sum up to 52. Now let us
discuss the probability of drawing cards from a pack. The symbols on the cards are shown below.
Spades and clubs are black cards. Hearts and diamonds are red cards.

The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, king. In these, the jack, the
queen, and the king are called face cards. We can understand the card probability from the
following examples.
• The probability of drawing a black card is P(Black card) = 26/52 = 1/2
 • The probability of drawing a hearts card is P(Hearts) = 13/52 = 1/4
• The probability of drawing a face card is P(Face card) = 12/52 = 3/13
• The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P(4) = 4/52 = 1/13
• The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P(4 Red) = 2/52 = 1/26
Probability Theorems
The following theorems of probability are helpful to understand the applications of probability and
also perform the numerous calculations involving probability.
Theorem 1: The sum of the probability of happening of an event and not happening of an event
is equal to 1. P(A) + P(A') = 1.
Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible event or the probability of an event not happening
is always equal to 0. P(ϕ) = 0.
Theorem 3: The probability of a sure event is always equal to 1. P(A) = 1
Theorem 4: The probability of happening of any event always lies between 0 and 1. 0 < P(A) < 1
Theorem 5: If there are two events A and B, we can apply the formula of the union of two sets
and we can derive the formula for the probability of happening of event A or event B as follows.
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

Exercise Questions

Q1. A perfectly fair coin is tossed 1000 times. Is it possible to obtain Heads on all the 1000 tosses?
. It is possible, but highly unlikely, or improbable.

Q2. Find the probability that a number selected at random from the numbers 1 to 50 is a (i) prime
number (ii) multiple of 9 (iii) an even number. [3/10, 1/10, ½]

Q3. A box contains 4 blue, 3 white and 7 red marbles. If a marble is drawn at random from the
box, what is the probability that it will not be a white marble? [11/14]

Q4. A bag contains 5 red balls and some blue balls. If the probability of drawing a blue ball from
the bag is thrice that of a red ball, find the number of blue balls in the bag. [3/4]
Q5. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the probability of getting a doublet (both
numbers which show up are the same)? [1/6]

Q6. Two dice are thrown at the same time. Find the probability that the sum of the two numbers
appearing on the top of the dice is more than 9. [1/6]