STAT 2001A Tutorial 1

STAT 2001A Basic Concepts in Statistics and

Probability I
Tutorial 1

In this tutorial note, we will cover the following topics

• Set

• Random Experiments, Sample Space and Event

• Probability

• Methods of Counting

• Conditional Probability

1 Set
Since, in studying probability, the words “set” and “event” are interchangeable, we
might review set definition and notations first.

1.1 Definition
Definition 1 (Set).
A set is a collection of distinct objects, called elements of the set.

Example 2. A set can be defined by different ways

1. by listing the element of the set enclosed in curly brackets.

• A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}.

2. by describing the contents.

• B is the set of all positive odd number, i.e., B = {1, 3, 5, 7, . . .}

3. by means of set notations.

• C = {x : 1 ≤ x ≤ 2}, i.e., C is a set of all real number between 1 and 2.

Definition 3 (Universal Set or Universe).

A universal set (or Universe) is a set that contains all the elements we are interested
in. (This would have to be defined by the context). Denoted by Ω or S.

Example 4.

• If we are discussing the outcome of rolling a die, Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

• If we are discussing the outcome of tossing a coin once , Ω = {H, T } (H for heads
and T for tails).

• If we are discussing the outcome of tossing two coins once, Ω = {HH, HT, T H, T T }.

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1.2 Set Operations STAT 2001A Tutorial 1

Definition 5 (Subset).
A subset is a sub-collection of objects in a set. If A is a subset of B is denoted as
A ⊂ B.

Remark 6. In general, the set we discuss in this tutorial notes is a subset of some universal
set Ω.

Definition 7 (Empty Set).

A empty set is a set that contain no element. Denoted by ∅.

1.2 Set Operations

Let A and B be two sets.
Operation Notation Definition
Union A∪B The set of elements belongs to either A or B.
Intersection A∩B The set of elements belongs to both A and B.
Complement Ac or A′ The set of elements belongs to the universal set Ω that are not in A.

Example 8. Ω = {1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9} A = {1, 7, 8} and B = {2, 3, 7, 8}.

A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 7, 8}
A ∩ B = {7, 8}
Ac = {2, 3, 9}

1.3 Set Operations Properties

Let A, B and C be sets. The following laws holds.

• Commutative Laws

A∪B =B∪A
A∩B =B∩A

• Associative Laws

(A ∪ B) ∪ C = A ∪ (B ∪ C)
(A ∩ B) ∩ C = A ∩ (B ∩ C)

• Distributive Laws

A ∩ (B ∪ C) = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ C)
A ∪ (B ∩ C) = (A ∪ B) ∩ (A ∪ C)

• De Morgan’s Laws

(A ∪ B)′ = A′ ∩ B ′
(A ∩ B)′ = A′ ∪ B ′

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1.4 Special Terminology STAT 2001A Tutorial 1

1.4 Special Terminology

Let A1 , A2 , . . . , Ak be sets.
Definition 9 (Mutually exclusive sets).
A1 , A2 , . . . , Ak are called mutually exclusive sets if Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ for any i ̸= j.
Definition 10 (Exhaustive sets).
A1 , A2 , . . . , Ak are called exhaustive sets if A1 ∪ A2 ∪ . . . ∪ Ak = Ω.
Definition 11 (Mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets).
A1 , A2 , . . . , Ak are called mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets if they satisfy both
Definition 9 and Definition 10.
Exercise 12.
Suppose we consider the outcome when a six-faced die is rolled. Obviously, Ω =
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A1 = {1, 2, 3}, A2 = {2, 4, 6}, A3 = {1, 3, 5}.
1. Find all mutually exclusive sets.

2. Find all exhaustive sets.

3. Find all mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets.

2 Random Experiments, Sample Space and Event

In the study of statistics, we consider experiments for which the outcome can not be
predicted with certainty. Such experiments are called random experiments.
Definition 13 (Sample space).
Sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes of the random experiment.
It corresponds to the universal set in Definition 3. Denoted by S.
Definition 14 (Event).
An event is a subset of S.
Example 15. Go back to Exercise 12. Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} is s sample space. A1 =
{1, 2, 3} is the event that the outcome is 1, 2 or 3. A2 = {2, 4, 6} is the event that the
outcome is even.

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3 Probability
Roughly speaking, probability is a numerical descriptions of the chance of getting an
event which is a subset of the sample space. The probability of an event is a number
between 0 and 1. Let A be an event in the sample space S. We commonly denote P (A)
be the probability of event A occur.
Remark 16. You may refer to the lecture note Ch1. Page 9 for the formal definition of
probability.
The following properties are useful.

1. P (A) = 1 − P (A′ )

2. P (∅) = 0

3. 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

4. P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) or equivalently P (A ∩ B) = P (A) + P (B) −

P (A ∪ B)

Equally Likely Assumption:

Suppose that S is a finite sample space and A is an event (A ⊂ S). Under the equal-
probability assumption, the probability of getting event A is the ratio of the number of
element in A to the number of elements in S. That is
#(A)
P (A) = .
#(S)

4 Counting Technique
1. Multiplication Principle

• Use this when there are multiple independent events, each with their own
outcomes, and you want to know how many outcomes there are for all the
events together.
• For independent events A and B, if there are n outcomes in event A and m
outcomes in event B, then there are nm outcomes for events A and B together.

2. Permutation

• Use this when you are counting the number of ways to choose and arrange a
r(r ≤ n) objects from n objects and the order matters.
n!
• The number outcomes =n Pr = , where n! = n × (n − 1) × . . . × 1;
(n − r)!
0! = 1;

3. Combination

• Use this when you are counting the number of ways to choose a r(r ≤ n)
objects from n objects and the order does not matter.

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 STAT 2001A Tutorial 1

!
n n!
• The number outcomes =n Cr = =
r r!(n − r)!

Exercise 17 (Permutation vs. Combination).

Select 4 letters from the 26 letters without replacement.

1. Find the number of possible four-letter code word.

2. Find the number of possible four letters selected.

Exercise 18.
The University Students’ Union council will elect a new Executive Committee, in-
cluding one president, two vice presidents, three secretaries from fifteen candidates. How
many arrangements are possible?

5 Conditional Probability
Definition 19 (Conditional Probability).
For any two events A and B, the conditional probability of B given A is defined as:
P (B ∩ A)
P (B|A) = , provided P (A) > 0.
P (A)
Exercise 20.
Smith has 2 children. We denote a boy as B and girl as G.

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1. What is the sample space Ω in terms of their children as 2-tuples, agreeing, for
example, that ”GB” indicates that the younger one is a girl and the older one is a
boy?

2. Given that at least one of them is a girl ,what is the probability the other is also a
girl? What is the event now?

3. Given that the older child is a girl, what is the probability the younger is also a
girl? What is the event now?