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Chapter 2 Spring26

Chapter 2 covers key concepts in probability, including random variables, probability distributions, expected values, variance, and the relationship between two random variables. It explains how to determine whether variables are random and their types, and introduces concepts like joint and marginal distributions, as well as independence and covariance. The chapter also discusses practical applications of these concepts in finance, particularly regarding risk assessment.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
4 views15 pages

Chapter 2 Spring26

Chapter 2 covers key concepts in probability, including random variables, probability distributions, expected values, variance, and the relationship between two random variables. It explains how to determine whether variables are random and their types, and introduces concepts like joint and marginal distributions, as well as independence and covariance. The chapter also discusses practical applications of these concepts in finance, particularly regarding risk assessment.

Uploaded by

Juno Daciuk
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

2.1 Random Variables and Probability Distributions


The mutually exclusive potential results of a random process or a chance experiment are called the
outcomes.
The collection of all possible outcomes of a chance experiment is called sample space.
Any collection of outcomes from the sample space is called an event.
A numerical summary of a random outcome is called a random variable. A random variable can be a discrete
or continuous.

Question 1. Determine whether the following variables are random or not. If random determine whether
it is discrete or continuous.
a) The number of applicants who apply for a certain position at a large company ______________________
b) The number of hours in a day __________________________
c) The monthly return of a stock __________________________

The probability of an outcome is the proportion of times that the outcome occurs in the long run.
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is the list of all possible values of the variable
and the probability that each value will occur. The sum of these probabilities is 1.
The cumulative probability distribution is the probability that the random variable is less than or equal
to a particular value. It is also called as a cumulative distribution function, a c.d.f., or a cumulative
distribution.

Suppose A and B two mutually exclusive events. Then, Pr(A or B)=Pr(A)+Pr(B)

Question 2: Let X be the number of applicants who apply for a senior level position at a large company.
The probability distribution of the random variable X is given in the following table(s). The outcomes are
mutually exclusive.

Outcomes x Pr(X=x)
0 1 2 3 0 0.5
Probability 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.05 1 0.3
Cumulative 0.5 0.8 0.95 1 2 0.15
Probability (0.5+0.3) (0.5+0.3+0.15) (0.5+0.3+0.15+0.05) 3 0.05

a) The probability that number of applicants is 3, i.e., Pr(X=3) is

b) Pr(X=1 or X=2)
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

When the random variable is binary, the outcome is 0 or 1, we have a special case of a discrete random
variable. A binary random variable is called a Bernoulli random variable and it is distribution is called the
Bernoulli distribution.
Suppose that X is a Bernoulli random variable with success probability P(X=1)=p. Then, the distribution:

x P(X=x)
1 p
0 1-p

Question 3. Complete the following probability distrubutions.


X P(X)
X Attending Not Attending
(X=1) (X=0) 1

P(X) 0.05 0 0.05

The probability distribution of continuous random variables cannot be given as above tables because we
cannot list all possible outcomes when the random variable is continuous. Instead, we use probability
density function (a p.d.f or a density function or a density). The probability is given by the area under the
probability density function and the total area is 1.

Question 4. What is the probability that the commute time is greater than 15 minutes?
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

2.2 Expected Values, Mean, and Variance


The (population) expected value (expectation, mean, average) of a random variable X, denoted by E(X) or
𝝁𝑿 , is the long run average of the random variable over many repeated trials.
Mean measures the central tendency of a probability distribution.

𝑬(𝑿) = 𝒙𝟏 𝒑𝟏 + 𝒙𝟐 𝒑𝟐 + … + 𝒙𝒌 𝒑𝒌
where X has outcomes which are 𝒙𝟏 , 𝒙𝟐 , … , 𝒙𝒌 with probability of 𝒙𝟏 is 𝒑𝟏 , probability of 𝒙𝟐 is 𝒑𝟐 ,… , and
probability of 𝒙𝒌 is 𝒑𝒌 .

Question 5: Suppose that X is a Bernoulli random variable with success probability P(X=1)=0.2. Find the
E(X).
x P(X=x)
1 0.2
0 0.8

𝑬(𝑿) = 𝝁𝑿 = 𝒙𝟏 𝒑𝟏 + 𝒙𝟐 𝒑𝟐 = (𝟏)(𝟎. 𝟐) + (𝟎)(𝟎. 𝟖) = 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐

The variance and standard deviation measures of variability. They measure the spread of a probability
distribution.

The (population) variance of the discrete variable X, denoted by Var(X) or 𝝈𝟐𝑿 , is the expected value of the
squared deviation of the variable from its mean. In other words, it is the long run average of the
squared deviation of the variable from the mean over many repeated trials.

𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = 𝑬[ (𝑿 − 𝝁𝑿 )𝟐 ] = (𝒙𝟏 − 𝝁𝑿 )𝟐 𝒑𝟏 + (𝒙𝟐 − 𝝁𝑿 )𝟐 𝒑𝟐 + ⋯ + (𝒙𝒌 − 𝝁𝑿 )𝟐 𝒑𝒌


where X has k outcomes which are 𝒙𝟏 , 𝒙𝟐 , … , 𝒙𝒌 with probability of 𝒙𝟏 is 𝒑𝟏 , probability of 𝒙𝟐 is 𝒑𝟐 ,… ,
and probability of 𝒙𝒌 is 𝒑𝒌 . Use 𝝁𝑿 for the mean (expected value, expectation) of X.

(Population) Standard deviation of X , denoted by 𝝈𝑿 , is the square root of the variance of X.


Most time we prefer to use standard deviation instead of variance because the units of the standard
deviation are the same as the units of X while the units of variance involves the square of the units of Y!

Question 6: Suppose that X is a Bernoulli random variable with success probability P(X=1)=0.2. Find the
variance of X.
x P(X=x)
1 0.2
0 0.8

𝑽𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = 𝝈𝟐𝑿 = (𝒙𝟏 − 𝝁𝑿 )𝟐 𝒑𝟏 + (𝒙𝟐 − 𝝁𝑿 )𝟐 𝒑𝟐 = (𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟐)𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟐) + (𝟎 − 𝟎. 𝟐)𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟖) = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔


Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

How can you use this knowledge in another class? A finance class, most likely an investment class, might
offer an extensive discussion on risk. In summary:

When we talk about systematic risk (market risk or non-diversifiable risk) we talk about some risk
factors affecting a large number of assets. Think of inflation, GDP and interest rates…

• How do we measure systematic risk? By the beta coefficient.


§ A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same systematic risk as the overall market.
§ A beta < 1 implies the asset has less systematic risk than the overall market.
§ A beta > 1 implies the asset has more systematic risk than the overall market.
§
When we talk about unsystematic risk (asset-specific risk), we talk about risk factors affecting a limited
number of assets.

• Total risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk


• The standard deviation of returns is a measure of total risk.
• For well-diversified portfolios, unsystematic risk is very small.
• The total risk for a diversified portfolio is essentially equivalent to the systematic risk.

Question 7: Suppose you are provided the following distribution on returns for stocks X and Y in three
possible states of the economy. Which stock has more total risk? (One having higher standard deviation
is said to have more total risk.)

Use Excel for calculations.

State Probability X Y
Boom 0.3 0.15 -0.1
Normal 0.5 0.1 0.3
Recession 0.02 0.1

𝝁𝑿 = 𝝁𝒀 =

𝝈𝟐𝑿 = 𝝈𝟐𝒀 =

𝝈𝑿 = 𝝈𝒀 =
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

Other Measures of the Shape of a Distribution


Skewness measures the symmetry of a distribution around its mean. Skewness of a random variable X:

𝑬[(𝑿 − 𝑬(𝑿))𝟑 ]
𝑺𝒌𝒆𝒘𝒏𝒆𝒔𝒔 =
𝝈𝟑𝑿

Symmetric distributions have skewness equal to zero.


Negative skewness characterizes a distribution with a long left tail (left-skewed) and positive skewness
derives from a long right tail (right-skewed).

Kurtosis is a measure of the probability of events in the tails of the distribution. It is a measure of how
much of the variability (variance) of the random variable comes from extreme values. The greater the
kurtosis of a distribution, the more likely are outliers. Kurtosis of a random variable X :

𝑬[(𝑿 − 𝑬(𝑿))𝟒 ]
𝑲𝒖𝒓𝒕𝒐𝒔𝒊𝒔 =
𝝈𝟒𝑿

Kurtosis takes always non-negative values. Larger values indicate higher likelihood of extreme events.
The kurtosis of normally distributed random variable is 3.

A random variable with kurtosis greater than 3 has more mass in its tails than a normal random
variable which is called leptokurtic or heavy-tailed.

If X is a continuous random variable, different


values of skewness and kurtosis produce
different shapes of the distribution.

The mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are


called the moments of a distribution.
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

2.3. Two Random Variables


We have already discussed the probability distribution of one random variable, say X. Probability of X taking the
value of x was denoted by Pr(X=x).

Joint and Marginal Distributions


The joint probability distribution of two discrete random variables, say X and Y, is the probability that the random
variables simultaneously take on certain values, say x and y. The probabilities of all possible (x, y) combinations sum
to 1.

The joint probability distribution can be written as 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙, 𝒀 = 𝒚).

Above table gives the joint probability distribution between employment status (Unemployed, Employed)
and college graduation (Non-college grads, college grads) in the working age U.S. population.

The probability that a randomly selected member of this population is non-college grads and unemployed is 0.026.
Notation: P(X = 0, Y = 0) = 0.026. In other words, there is a 2.6% chance that a member of this population is a
non-college grads and unemployed.

Question 8. What is the probability that a randomly selected member of this population is college grads
and employed?

Question 9. What is the probability that a randomly selected member of this population is college grads? (
It is also called marginal probability: P(X = 1) )

Question 10. The unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is unemployed. What is the
unemployment rate? (i.e. Pr(Y=0)=? )
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

Question 11: Given that you are college graduate, how likely you will be employed, i.e., what is the
probability that you will be employed given that you are college graduate?

We call this probability conditional probability. Probability of Y = y given that (or conditional on) X = x is
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙, 𝒀 = 𝒚) 𝒋𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑿 = 𝒙 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒀 = 𝒚
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚 | 𝑿 = 𝒙) = =
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙) 𝒎𝒂𝒓𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑿 = 𝒙

The probability that a randomly selected member will be employed given that s(he) is college graduate is
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏, 𝒀 = 𝟏) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟖𝟗
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟏 | 𝑿 = 𝟏) = = = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕𝟕𝟒 = 𝟗𝟕. 𝟕𝟒%
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝟏) 𝟎. 𝟑𝟗𝟖

Question 12. what is the probability that a randomly selected member of this population is unemployed
given that individual is college graduate? (Same question: What is the unemployment rate for college
graduates?)

Independence
Two random variables are independent or independently distributed, if knowing the value of one of the
variables provides no information about the other.

X and Y are independently distributed for all values of x and y if 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚, 𝑿 = 𝒙) = 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚)𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙)

Question 13. Are X (college graduation) and Y (employment status) independent?(Same question: Are
educational achievement and employment status independent?)
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

Covariance, denoted by 𝝈𝑿𝒀 , measures the dependence between two random variables X and Y.

𝝈𝑿𝒀 = 𝒄𝒐𝒗(𝑿, 𝒀) = 𝑬[(𝑿 − 𝝁𝑿 )(𝒀 − 𝝁𝒀 )]


For X and Y discrete where X takes k values and Y takes l values, we can calculate cov(X,Y) as
𝒌 𝒍

𝝈𝑿𝒀 = 𝒄𝒐𝒗(𝑿, 𝒀) = X XY𝒙𝒋 − 𝝁𝑿 Z(𝒚𝒊 − 𝝁𝒀 )𝑷𝒓(𝑿 = 𝒙𝒋 , 𝒀 = 𝒚𝒊 )


𝒊,𝟏 𝒋,𝟏

Positive covariance: X and Y tend to move in same direction

Negative covariance: X and Y tend to move in opposite direction

Zero covariance: X and Y are independent.

The sign of the covariance gives a clear indication of the direction of the dependence between two random
variables but how strong is the dependence? Is it weak, moderate or large?

Units of covariance between X and Y is the product of units of X and units of Y. That`s why, interpreting
the magnitude of covariance is difficult. This problem is solved by the correlation!

Correlation, denoted by 𝝆𝑿𝒀 or corr(X,Y), is another way of measuring the dependence between two
random variables, X and Y, which is obtained by dividing covariance by the product of standard deviations
of the variables. It is unit free.
𝝈𝑿𝒀
𝝆𝑿𝒀 = 𝒄𝒐𝒓𝒓(𝑿, 𝒀) =
𝝈𝑿 𝝈𝒀
Correlation is a real number between -1 and 1. We say dependence is weak when it is close to zero,
moderate when it is close to 0.5 or -0.5, large(strong) when it is close to 1 or -1. We say that two random
variables are uncorrelated if the correlation between them is zero.
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

Application of covariance:

Covariance formula for 2 assets X and Y when you are given the probability for each state of economy and
the returns for each state:

𝝈𝑿𝒀 = ∑𝑺,𝒏
𝒔,𝟏 𝒑𝒔 ]𝑹𝑿,𝒔 − 𝑬(𝑹𝑿 )_]𝑹𝒀,𝒔 − 𝑬(𝑹𝒀 )_

𝒑𝒔 : the probability of economic state s,


𝑹𝑿,𝒔 : the return for Asset X for the economic states,
𝑹𝒀,𝒔 : the return for Asset X for the economic state,
𝑬(𝑹𝑿 ) : the expected return for Asset X,
𝑬(𝑹𝒀 ) : the expected return for Asset X

State (s) Probability (𝒑𝒔 ) 𝑹𝑿,𝒔 𝑹𝒀,𝒔

1 𝒑𝟏 𝑹𝑿,𝟏 𝑹𝒀,𝟏

2 𝒑𝟐 𝑹𝑿,𝟐 𝑹𝒀,𝟐

… … … …

s=n 𝒑𝒏 𝑹𝑿,𝒏 𝑹𝒀,𝒏

Question 14. Find the covariance and correlation between stock X and stock Y used in Question 7.

State Probability X Y
Boom 0.3 0.15 -0.1
Normal 0.5 0.1 0.3
Recession 0.2 0.02 0.1
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

2.4 The Normal Distribution


So far, we had discussions for discrete random variables.

Now, let 𝑿 be a continuous random variable which has normal distribution with mean 𝝁 and variance 𝝈𝟐 .
Then, we write 𝑿~𝑵(𝝁, 𝝈𝟐 ). This is the notation used in our textbook.

(Maybe, the textbook you used in your last Stat class had standard deviation in the notation instead of
variance. Please note that we will have variance in the notation in this course.)

Normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1 is called standard normal distribution.

The standard normal cumulative function, denoted by 𝚽, is given by 𝚽(𝐳) = 𝐏𝐫(𝐙 ≤ 𝐳) where 𝐳 is a
constant.

Question 15 Let Z be a continuous random variable who has standard normal distribution. According to
the statistical table below

𝐏(𝐙 < −𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟒 or 𝚽(−𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟒 .

Question 16 P(𝒁 ≥ −𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟔𝟔.


Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

In Excel the cumulative probability at point x, P(X < x), is obtained using the function

[Link](x, mean, std dev, cumulative) which takes as arguments:

• x : the value at which we want to calculate the cumulative distribution

• mean: the mean of the normal distribution

• std. dev: the standard deviation of the normal distribution

• TRUE: which indicates that we want to calculate the cumulative probability; if FALSE Excel
calculates the probability density

Question 17: By using Table 1, we found 𝐏(𝐙 < −𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟒

P(a ≤ Z ≤ b) = P(a < Z ≤ b ) = P(a ≤ Z < b ) = P(a < Z < b)

P(a < Z < b)


= (cumulative area to the left of b) – (cumulative area to the left of a )
= P(Z< b) − P(Z < a)
= 𝚽(𝐛) − 𝚽(𝐚)

Question 18: P(−𝟐. 𝟕𝟏 ≤ 𝐙 ≤ 𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝚽(𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) − 𝚽(−𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟔𝟔 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟑𝟐
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

The graph of p.d.f is known as “bell curve”. 𝑿 can be standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by
𝑿1 𝝁
its standard deviation. Let 𝒁 be the standardized version of 𝑿, then 𝒁 = and 𝒁~𝑵(𝟎, 𝟏) . We say
𝝈
Z has a standard normal distribution.

Question 19: 𝑿~𝑵(𝟑, 𝟏𝟔) . Use table 1 attached to this document. This table will be also attached to
your exam papers. Find 𝑷(𝑿 < 𝟓).

Because 𝑿~𝑵(𝟑, 𝟏𝟔) 𝝁 = 𝟑, 𝝈 = √𝟏𝟔 = 𝟒

𝑷(𝑿 < 𝟓)
𝑿1 𝝁 𝟓1 𝝁
= 𝑷o 𝝈 < 𝝈 p

𝑿1 𝟑 𝟓1 𝟑
= 𝑷o 𝟒
< 𝟒
p

= 𝑷(𝒁 < 𝟎. 𝟓)

= 𝟎. 𝟔𝟗𝟏𝟓

r 𝟏 ~𝑵 o𝜷𝟏 , 𝝈𝟐6 p . It is given that 𝜷𝟏 = 𝟎 and 𝝈𝟐6 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟎𝟒. Find 𝑷Y 𝜷


Question 20. 𝜷 r 𝟏 < −𝟐. 𝟐𝟖Z.
𝜷𝟏 𝜷𝟏
Chapter 2 Review for Probability by Fadime Demiralp

Question 21: P(𝐙 ≤ −𝟐. 𝟕𝟏 𝐨𝐫 𝐙 ≥ 𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟐 𝑷(𝐙 ≤ −𝟐. 𝟕𝟏) = 𝟐(𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑𝟒) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟖

Question 22. P(𝒁 ≥ 𝟐. 𝟓) =?


Appendix

TABLE 1 The Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution Function, Φ1 z2 = Pr1 Z " z2

Area = Pr(Z ≤ z )

0 z

Second Decimal Value of z

z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

- 2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
- 2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
- 2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
- 2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
- 2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
- 2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
- 2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
- 2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
- 2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
- 2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
- 1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
- 1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
- 1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
- 1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
- 1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559
- 1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
- 1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
- 1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
- 1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
- 1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
- 0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611

(Table 1 continued)

721

Z01_STOC1991_04_SE_APP_pp721-[Link] 721 14/08/18 4:56 PM


722 Appendix

(Table 1 continued)

Second Decimal Value of z

z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

- 0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
- 0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
- 0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
- 0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
- 0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
- 0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
- 0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
- 0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
- 0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
This table can be used to calculate Pr1Z … z2 where Z is a standard normal variable. For example, when z = 1.17, this probability
is 0.8790, which is the table entry for the row labeled 1.1 and the column labeled 7.

Z01_STOC1991_04_SE_APP_pp721-[Link] 722 14/08/18 4:56 PM

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