CHAPTER – 2

LITERAURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

Water is the most essential natural resources for life next to air and is likely to become a

critical scarce resource in many regions of the world in coming decades. The total fresh

and sea water content of earth is essentially fixed. Although man has been able to modify

to a certain extent, the pattern of availability of the fresh water supplies with respect to

space and time but the total availability basically has remained the same possibly over

millions of years but the water demand has increased manifolds. The immense

population growth along with economic development has put huge pressure on the

development of the water resources to satisfy various needs to maintain a reasonable

quality of life. Therefore, the question of sustainable development and management of

limited water resources is of paramount important particularly in developing countries

like India. It would require the development of a proper modeling approach

incorporating the development of water resources satisfying various demands and

supplies in an interactive and sustainable way.

In this chapter a review of literature, particularly relevant to water related issues viz

sustainable development of water, pricing policy, efficiency, recycling of water, water

demand, water quality, and integrated modeling approaches incorporating various

aspects of water resources development is presented.

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2.2 Sustainable Development of Water

According to Golubev (1993) sustainable water development could be described as a set

of actions securing the present functions of water without jeopardizing the interests of

future generations in this area.

The UN Commission on Sustainable Development in its report 'Comprehensive

Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World' assessed that in many countries

both developing and developed current pathways for water use are often not sustainable.

There is clear and convincing evidence that the world faces a worsening series of local

and regional water quantity and quality problems, largely as a result of poor water

allocation, wasteful use of the resource, and lack of adequate management actions. Water

resources constraints and water degradation are weakening one of the resource bases on

which human society is built (Falkenmark and Lundqvist 1997).

Key principles of sustainable development

Regarding water management, sustainable development has generated attention on four

principles. First, fresh water should be regarded as a finite and vulnerable resource.

Effective management links both land and water across the whole of a catchment or

groundwater aquifer, and therefore effective management requires a holistic approach in

which social and economic development is linked to protection of natural ecosystems.

Second, water development and management should be based on a participatory

approach, involving users, planners, and policymakers at all levels. This also means that

decisions should be taken at the lowest (most basic) appropriate level via open public

consultation with, and involvement of, users.

17
Third, because women play a central role globally in the provision, management, and

safeguarding of water, they should have more opportunity to participate in planning and

managing of water resources.

Fourth, water has significant economic value, and thus should be recognized as an

economic good. However, it also is essential to recognize the basic right of all humans to

have access to safe, drinkable water and sanitation. Pricing water as an economic good

will discourage wasteful and environmentally damaging uses of water by encouraging

conservation and protection of water.

Moreover, most countries do not treat water as an economic good. And in many

countries, water management is fragmented among many sectors and institutions,

making it difficult to manage water holistically. Fragmentation also makes it difficult to

integrate environmental, economic, and social considerations, or to link water quality to

health, the environment, and economic development. Management often over-relies on

centralized administration, with few opportunities for local people to participate in

planning, management, and implementation.

Dublin Principle as a Guide (Committee 2000)

Principles have universal support; The Dublin principles significantly contributed to

the Agenda 21 (Summit 1992) recommendations adopted at the United Nations

Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, 1992. Since then, these

principles (referred to as the Dublin-Rio principles) have found universal support

amongst the international community as the guiding principles underpinning Integrated

Water Resource Management.

18
The four Dublin principles; The Dublin principles are: I-Fresh water is a finite and

vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment. II-Water

development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving

users, planners and policymakers at all levels. III-Women play a central part in the

provision, management and safeguarding of water. IV-Water has an economic value in

all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good.

Value and charges are two different things; Concern has been voiced over the social

consequences of “the economic good” concept: How would this affect poor people’s

access to water? (While the Dublin principles refer to water as an economic good, water

is referred to as an economic and social good in Chapter 18 of (Summit 1992). To avoid

confusion over this concept there is a need to distinguish clearly between valuing and

charging for water. The value of water in alternative uses is important for the rational

allocation of water as a scarce resource (using the “opportunity cost” concept), whether

by regulatory or economic means. Charging for water is applying an economic

instrument to affect behavior towards conservation and efficient water usage, to provide

incentives for demand management, ensure cost recovery and to signal consumers’

willingness to pay for additional investments in water services.

2.3 Pricing Aspects

Water pricing could affect: water allocation between competing uses; water

conservation; generation of additional revenue which could be used to operate and

maintain water systems, and even repay part or all investment costs; Cropping pattern;
19
income distribution; Efficiency of water management; Overall environmental impacts.

The overwhelming thrust of the hypothesis was that if the right water prices could be

charged to farmers, they would become rational optimizers (Biswas 1991).

Water pricing has four principal effects: (i) reduction of demand (ii) increased supply

(because marginal projects become affordable) (iii) facilitation of reallocation among

sectors, (iv) increased managerial efficiency leading to improved service, maintenance,

etc (Serageldin 1995).

Based on a literature search, Gehrels (1985) found that water demand in municipal,

industrial, and agricultural sectors is responsive to price changes. It was concluded that

by modifying rate structures and manipulating price, water use in Southern Alberta

would be reduced, thus extending existing water supplies.

Estimates of the ratio between receipts and fiscal costs of irrigation systems include:

Pakistan 13%, China 25%, and Philippines 10%. The governments should price water to

reflect its actual value, except the domestic water demands of the poor. This means

charging a fee for the water itself as well as for the supply costs (Rogers 1986).

Mercer and Morgan (1986)suggested that rate of return on invested capital can be used as

a guide to resource allocation by municipal water department (MWD) in a way used in

the private sector. To achieve economic efficiency, the target rate of return for MWD’s

should be the market rate of return as an approximation to the opportunity cost of capital.

Chourasia (1987) studied the effect of metering on consumption of water through

household connection in three villages of UP, India. The average consumption of water

in metered connection was about 50 lpcd and that of unmetered connection was 125 lpcd.

20
Kolvalli and Chicoine (1989) cited the cases of groundwater market, its benefits and

implications and constraints to water markets, in Gujarat in India. The willingness to buy

high-priced water often, even if less costly alternative sources are available, may be

attributed to the greater reliability of private well water supply compared to canal supply.

Griffin and Chang (1990) investigated several characteristics of community water

demand in Texas. The results indicated that consumers respond to average price rather

than marginal price.

A review of World Bank financed water supply projects showed that the effective price

charged for water was only about 35% of the average cost of supply, while for irrigation,

the water charges cover an even smaller share of average cost and are generally not

based on the volume taken (Bank 1992; Bank 1995).

In many cases irrigation water is either free or at least below the maintenance costs,

ignoring the capital investments made in construction of the projects. In his analysis of

performance of large public irrigation systems in a number of countries, Repetto (1986)

pointed out that governments collect from users (farmers) barely 10 to 20 percent of the

costs of building and operating the systems. Government subsidies range from 75 to 99%

of the total costs. Nobody including the farmers is financially at risk for the success of

irrigation projects. Wastage of water is chronic, operation and maintenance are poor, and

water conservation opportunities are neglected. Large irrigation systems bring extensive

environmental impacts. If water diverted for irrigation were used efficiently, the need for

additional and costly irrigation projects would lessen or disappear altogether (Golubev

1993).

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Malla (1995) examined the conservation effects of irrigation water supply pricing on

irrigation water use in Oahu, Hawaii. No evidence of water pricing promoting water

conservation was found. Irrigation demand elasticities from past studies range from -

0.013 to -1.73.

The city of Bogar in Indonesia, increased fees for water by 30%. As a result, the

consumption of water declined by a similar rate and expensive investments in new

supplies were postponed. Similarly some 18 months after Guinea turned over

responsibility for supplying urban areas with water to a private supplier, the fee

collection rate had increased from 15% to 70%, and services had improved significantly.

Even farmers who are very poor are often willing to pay for good quality services that

raise and stabilise their income. In Bangladesh, it is not uncommon for farmers to agree

to pay 25% of their dry season irrigated rice crop to the owners of nearby tube-wells who

supply their water (Serageldin 1995).

In the United States industrial water use in 1980 stood at 45 billion gallons per day. By

1990 it declined 33% to 30 billion gallons per day, largely as a result of tightening

controls on effluents and effluent charges imposed over this period. Consumption of

water in the former East Germany dropped from 400 to 120 litres per capita per day, or

70 percent between 1989 and 1994, primarily as a result of cost-based pricing

(Serageldin 1995).

In recent years, as a component of overall economic restructuring, the operation of

irrigation districts throughout Mexico has been turned over to farmers. One (of many)

consequences is that there has been a dramatic increase in cost recovery, from about 30%

22
to 80%. For now the farmers know what the charges are for, and they apply the revenues

to improving the maintenance and operation of their systems (Bank 1995).

The study of transfer of management of public irrigation systems to local water users, in

Indonesia, Colombia, New Zealand and Nigeria, indicates process of transfer is smoother

if increases in water fees are closer to the O&M costs. The objective of reducing O&M

cost and ensured delivery of water are other reasons for the success (Johnson III 1990;

Johnson III 1995).

Easter and Hearne (1995) observed that under pricing of water and the lack of cost

recovery has resulted in excessive water use, pollution, resource misallocation, and

unsustainable water service entities. Decentralization of water management, including

the use of water market cannot solve all of the water problems, but it can improve the

efficiency of water allocation.

Grimble (1999) discussed the problem of water scarcity and the need to improve

efficiency and sustainability through the use of market-based mechanisms. The

contention is based on the principle that people (including farmers) are 'economic men'

who respond rationally to financial incentives and disincentives.

Water pricing can improve economic efficiency and improve social equity, and by using

less of the resource more efficiently lead to environmental enhancement. Hence, water

pricing helps to address all three of Agenda 21’s concerns about sustainability of the

resource(Rogers et al. 2002).

Water utility managers and economists have long been interested in the effect of price on

household water use as a tool to manage demand (Howe and Linaweaver 1976; Young

2005). Econometric studies typically quantify price effects as elasticities that express the
23
percentage change in water use associated with a 1% increase in price. Price elasticity of

water demand is generally observed as negative and less than 1 in absolute value

(inelastic). However, significant differences exist and relate to econometric regression

technique, price specification, and rate structure in the study area (Dalhuisen et al.

2003b).

Rosenberg (2009) studied deductive model of residential water use for the intermitted

supply system in Amman, Jordan and simulates demand responses across a cross section

of households over many uniform, increasing block, and linear price (quadratic charge)

rate structures at historically low and significantly higher prices. Results shows inelastic

piped water demand responses for all rate structures at historically low prices similar to

findings from a prior economic study for Amman. However, piped water demand turns

more elastic when price rise above $0.50/m3 with uniform rates showing the most

structures. They illustrate trade-offs among rate structure components for key rate-setting

objectives such as to encourage water conservation, recover costs, promote efficiency,

and more equitably allocate costs among users.

The literature review clearly indicates that water pricing is a complex issue because water

is merit good. Water pricing policy is intended to serve many objectives such as equity,

efficiency financial sustainability, and full cost recovery often inconsistent to each other. The

need to fix an appropriate charge of price for water has been strongly advocated in recent

years. Several reasons have been put forward in support of appropriate price policy.

Although pricing is an important policy measure to improve the efficiency and

24
conservation but the 'hydraulic law of subsidies' always pertains - water flows towards

influence and power, which the poor never have.

2.4 Water Efficiencies

Water supply in India continues to be inadequate and unreliable, despite longstanding

efforts by various levels of government to improve coverage. The sector suffers from

chronic operational inefficiencies, unreliable quality and poor coverage. Problems

include suboptimal resource allocation, poor operations and maintenance (O&M)

practices, uneconomic tariff structures, low collection efficiency and high levels of

leakage. Rapid urbanization coupled with unplanned growth of cities and towns is only

adding to the problem.

Under limited capability to expand water supply capacities by means of structural

solutions, all measures that facilitate more efficient water use becomes very important

(Kindler 1992).

For water resources planners, managers, and operators, efficiency is an issue of ever

growing importance: increasing demand and increasing constraints require more efficient

tools. And as a corollary, effective communication of information is of critical

importance is every participatory decision making and planning process. Consequently,

water resources planning and management requires computer based tools that can

integrate these aspects into information systems that can support the planning and

decision making process. Aldama (1994) demonstrated in the case of Mexico that the

solution to many problems in the water sector requires technological input.

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The Unaccounted for Water (UFW) in India is about 30 percent and in certain studies

this may even go up to 70 percent. It indicates wasting almost 1/3rd of the treated water

produced at high cost. The wastage of treated water in terms of cost may touch up Rs

300 crore a year. Some of the key factors contributing to the poor O&M are lack of

finances, inadequate data on O&M, inappropriate system design, multiplicity of agencies

and overlapping responsibilities, lack of performance evaluation and regular monitoring

etc. About 30-40% of the total annual O&M cost goes towards the personnel (O&M)

staff, 35 to 45% of the cost incurred on power charges and the balance is utilised for

consumables, repairs and replacement of parts and machinery etc. (Shukla 1999).

As per the detailed investigations carried out by NEERI, 17 to 44 percent of the total

flow in the distribution system is lost as unaccounted through leakage in mains,

communication and service pipes and leaking valves. The major portion of the leakage

(about 82%) occurs in the house service connection, through service pipes and taps. The

remaining 18% is due to leakage in pipelines (Suresh 1998).

The typical efficiencies of gravitational, sprinkler and drip systems are 50, 70 and 85

percent respectively. Unfortunately, the high cost and technological complexities of the

more progressive irrigation systems prevent from being more widespread. Sprinkler

systems probably account for 5-10 percent and drip systems for less than 1 percent of the

total irrigated area world-wide Golubev 1993).

Water supply system in urban India suffers from a number of problems. There exists

serious mismanagement in water supply system in urban India (Kundu and Thakur

2006). This mismanagement is reflected in the presence of weak institutions, low

resource mobilization capacity, poor information dissemination system, deplorable

26
service quality condition, low coverage, inadequate and ill designed supply system,

insufficient treatment capacity, unstructured distribution system etc. It is apprehended

that these concerns are going to intensify due to rising water demand with the rising pace

of urbanization coupled with snags in the supply front. All these developments call for

using the approach of performance measurement of urban local bodies to examine their

existing strengths and weaknesses and to improve their capacity in the front where they

are weak to deliver the services efficiently.

There is a necessity to improve the water use efficiencies in various water use sectors as

the water saved is equivalent to augmenting the water supply for other users. As the

water is already becoming scarce resource, no society can afford the inefficient use of

this limiting resource.

2.5 Reuse and recycling

David (1984) studied the impact of Clean Water Act (CWA) 1972 on industrial water

intake, discharge, recycling, and gross water use and observed significant impact in most

of the industries specially in paper and pulp industries. Trends in gross water use and

recycling ratios indicated that production processes were gradually modified so that less

total water was discharged and less was used per unit of output. Gremban (1987)

determined that the reuse of water reduced paper mill operating costs and resulted in

substantial savings.

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A complex set of legislative/regulatory, technological, water conservation, and economic

factors operate to affect the degree of industrial wastewater reuse/recycle in the United

States. Potentially significant disincentives to industrial wastewater reuse include state

water rights allocation policy, public/agency apathy, the risk of innovation in a stressed

economy, and possible energy use penalties (Shelton 1985).

Reuse of treated domestic wastewater has three beneficial impacts mainly in arid zones:

the availability of more water, positive economic aspect and a decrease in environmental

pollution hazard. It also satisfies nutrient requirements. Through field study in Israel it

was found that by applying effluent an annual amount of at least $195/hac per crop can

be saved. The effluent was applied via sprinkler and trickle irrigation systems. The main

crops irrigated were cotton, wheat, alfalfa, and corn. The yield of the wheat grain was

over 7.5 tonnes /hac. The yields obtained were without any additional fertilization (Oron

and DeMalach 1987).

Biswas (1988) analysed the use of marginal quality water for plant production in Europe.

It was concluded that marginal quality water can be safely used for plant production,

provided certain precautions are taken to protect health and the environment.

A rapidly expanding area of water supplies, specifically water reclamation and reuse was

examined, and provided a comprehensive planning methodology for developing and

evaluating water reuse alternatives. The methodology used five phases: goal setting,

identification of reuse opportunities, development and evaluation of planning

alternatives, assessment of water reuse linkages, and making decisions and

recommendations. A tool called 'input-output modeling' was used in the third phase to

present numerical data and choices. The methodology sought to integrate the hydrologic
28
and socio-economic aspects of water resources planning in the area of study. The

potential for water reclamation and reuse in developing countries by considering the

relationships among the pertinent technical, social, economic, and environmental

parameters were assessed (Mohorjy 1989).

Water pollution control efforts have made treated effluent that can be an economical

water supply compared to the increasing expense of developing new sources. The critical

planning factors in wastewater reclamation and reuse were discussed and presented a

systematic approach for the successful implementation of water reuse projects (Asano

and Mills 1990).

Aboukhaled (1992) pointed out that effluent reuse in agriculture converts sewage from

nuisance to an asset for semi arid and arid countries. Treatment at source of industrial

wastes, a greater role and efforts by ministries of agriculture and irrigation and much

more coordinated assistance by UN agencies were required.

Okun (1991) reported that water reclamation for nonpotable reuse for urban irrigation,

industry, toilet-flushing, cooling, construction etc. can reduce the demand on limited

fresh water resources. Many urban areas around the world have already used this

approach to meet the problems of increased water demand.

In those developed countries where irrigation is not widespread, like Germany, UK, or

France, industry consumes between 71 and 87% of the total water use, while in former

USSR, Japan and the USA, where irrigation plays a considerable role in water

management, it is between 31 and 46%. Per capita consumption of water by industry in

the USA is 995 m3/yr while in other five countries mentioned it varies between 305 and

5843. The amount of water consumed per unit of an industrial product varies by more
29
than 10 times depending mainly on the technology applied, and hence, large savings of

water can be made in industrial production (Golubev 1993).

Al-Zubari (1998) reported that GCC countries consider domestic wastewater as an

integral part of their water resources. Major plans for water recycling exist in most of

these countries. The main handicaps for reuse expansion are both social (psychological

repugnance and religion) and technical (microbiological pollutants, potential heavy

metals accumulation in irrigated soil, and industrial waste mixing).

A growing awareness is taking shape that it is more important to manage and

administrate water demand in order to assure water security, than to meet the growing

demands at any cost. Two goals will be achieved: first, from the economic point of view,

a reduction of the costs and investments, and second the protection and conservation of

the environment. In this respect, conservation, recycling and reuse of water play a key

role (Beekman 1998).

Khare (1999) analyzed the Public-Private Partnership (P3) in water and wastewater

industry, discussed some of the benefits and problems, articulated the role of

governments and the private sector, and described the models of France, USA, England

and Wales. In every model, privatization has generally resulted in improved water and

wastewater quality, better compliance with standards but at much higher water rates.

An integrated linear deterministic optimization model is applied to Beirut, Lebanon, to

determine the minimum cost configuration of future water supply, wastewater disposal,

and reuse options for a semiarid coastal city (Ray et al. 2009). Previous urban water

system optimization models considered only a single quality of potable water and were

thus unable to demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of reclaimed water among all viable
30
options for water supply. The work highlights the importance of modeling the utility of

multiple qualities of water in modern water supply planning.

Reuse and recycling can play a key role in reducing freshwater demand and needs to be

considered as viable option to reduce the demands for sustainable water resources

development.

2.6 Water Demand Projections

The world’s fresh resources are under increasing pressure. Global water resources may

be characterized by the amount of precipitation falling on the continents and or by river

runoff. These figures are correspondingly about 100000 and 40000BCM per year. Stable

river runoff, which is the most convenient to use, is about 12000 BCM, and is the most

valuable, renewable component of water resources. To, river runoff should be added the

resources of groundwater, freshwater lakes and glaciers, which contains both renewable

and non-renewable components. The total global water withdrawal was about 3790 BCM

in 1995 year while consumption was 2070 BCM (61% of withdrawal) (Golubev 1993).

Tate (1984) argued that demand management is a pro-development strategy, in contrast

to some perceptions that incorporation of demand management strategies would inhibit

development.

The total global water consumption during the 20th century (1900-2000) had been

estimated to increase tenfold. The increase in agriculture water requirement was

estimated to be about 6.5 times during the last century. Nearly 90% of total water

requirements were accounted for agriculture in 1900 but by the year 2000 it was likely to
31
be 62%. Industrial water use was expected to increase from 6% to 24% during the same

period (Biswas 1991).

According to Shiklomanov (1993) worldwide about 70 percent of the water used is for

irrigation, 20 percent for industrial purposes, and 10 percent for domestic. With the

industrial growth, share of water use in industries is increasing. The economics of water

use does not favour agriculture. 1000 tons of water can be used to produce one ton of

wheat worth $200 or to expand industrial output by $14,000. This ratio of 70 to 1

explains why industry almost always wins in the competition with agriculture for water

on economic basis (Brown 1998).

Governments of developing countries are becoming increasingly concerned with

improving living conditions, a feat that is strongly based in the adequate management of

their water resources. Worldwide, the number of people that do not have an adequate

water supply is increasing, as the rate at which the access to safer water is being provided

is too slow to keep pace with the population growth. About three-quarters of the 4,400

million people in the world, roughly 3,300 million live in the developing countries.

Virtually all of the world's increased population will have to find employment in urban

areas as development in agricultural technology, together with high initial ratio of labour

to land in many low-income countries, will probably force many people living in rural

areas to migrate to the cities, forcing the expansion of urban areas and the water demands

on urban infra-structure (Casadei 1987).

Shimura (1988) examined the maximum available water resources in Japan, nationally

and by region, and presented balance of demand and supply. The study of water

32
consumption during 1965-1981 indicated that largest share was to irrigation (65%) and

water intake had scarcely increased since 1975 in irrigation. Industrial water intake

increased from 1975 to 1980 but subsequently showed a slight decrease, reflecting a

change in industrial structure, advances in the recycling of wastewater for factory use

etc. As for domestic water, after 1981 it had been slowed down reflecting slow growth of

population, advances in water conservation etc.

While there is no one to one relationship between population and water requirement, it is

clear that with a substantial increase in world population, total water requirement will

increase as well. Furthermore, past experiences indicate that as standard of living

increases so do per capita water requirements. Hence, if the present poverty alleviation

programmers succeed, water requirements will increase further - a fact which has often

not been considered by our policy planners, both nationally and internationally (Biswas

1993a).

Lehman (1991), investigated water demand reduction by implementing an inclining rate

structure. The second phase of the study is to determine the elasticity of the rate,

segmented by customer type, which can be used for rate forecasting and water demand

management.

Metcalfe (1991) used probabilistic models and statistical inference to quantify the

uncertainty in anticipated costs for maintaining the water supply and sewerage system

over the next 20 years for England and Wales.

Nieswiadomy (1992) estimated water demand equation using the most current survey

data of US utilities in 1984 of AWWA. Three types of models were used: a marginal

price model, an average price model, and Shin’s price perception model. Conservation
33
didn’t appear to reduce water use, but public education appears to have reduced water

uses in the West. The Shin tests indicated that consumers react more to average than

marginal prices in all regions. The price elasticity of demand of water using average

price is varying from -0.06 in the South to -0.45 in the West. It further reports that major

decrease in water use per capita occur only where a major price increase is accompanied

by major public awareness of the action surrounding the passage of the increased price.

Arrus and Garadi (1991) observed that present forecasting methods arrives at estimates

of demand which lack sound foundations are difficult to control. Demand does not exist

as such, since it is always determined by choices of economic development, which in

turn involve specifying economic policy criteria, technical criteria, and social criteria.

These various criteria enter into the elaboration of the alternative scenarios which

underlie the forecasts. Therefore, there are not one but several possible demands, each of

which can be simulated. Each scenario corresponds to a certain representation of

demand, and to a structure which reflects the choices which have been made.

Computer measurement and control technology being applied to water use such as

irrigation in municipal and commercial applications will have significant effects on the

resource supply demands. With accurate Real Time feedback technology now being

employed, it is not unreasonable to expect that water consumption will decrease by up to

50% in many applications. In large irrigation schemes, computer control of water

distribution, coupled with reduced water use, can result in reduction of pipe work and

pumping systems(Whitford 1993).

Bouwer (1993) suggested several approaches, singly or in combination that can be used

to meet competing water demands viz. by creating more storage, weather modification,
34
watershed management, urban and agricultural water conservation, reuse of sewage

effluent and other wastewater, desalination of saline water, water banking and transfer of

water rights or other changes in water use (from low economic returns to those with high

economic returns).

Baumli (1993) presents information on current and projected urban demands, demand

reduction measures, why water transfers are necessary, conditions for water transfers,

and examples of water transfers for California. Spain is on the verge of introducing its

National Hydrological Plan, a decree aimed at rescuing the country from serious drought.

Deb et al. (1992) discusses various demand management strategies considered and their

effectiveness in controlling water demand in the future for Rhoe-Island. In compiling

accurate consumption data by water use classification a database was developed by

superimposing water utility billing database s with tax assessors’ databases. The new

database provides water use classification and water consumption information for all

customers. A set of water demand management strategies has been developed and its

effectiveness was determined.

Weber (1993) briefly discuss the major methods of demand forecasting and then

concentrate on measuring conservation performance and integrating conservation targets

into long-run demand projections.

Biswas (1994) discussed that with increasing population water demand will increase

while water availability is unlikely to increase creating conflict among different water

sectors. Irrigation being the largest user of water will be the loser and hence water has to

be utilized efficiently.

35
According to Shiklomanov (1997) worldwide about 70% of the water use is for

irrigation, 20% for industrial purposes and 10% for domestic. With the industrial growth,

share of water use in industries is increasing. The economics of water use does not favor

agriculture. 1000 tons of water can be used to produce one ton of wheat worth $200 or to

expand industrial output by $14,000. This ratio of 70 to 1 explains why industry almost

always wins in the competition with agriculture for water on economic basis.

Armal (1997) discussed the aspects of the demand on one side and the planning of the

resources on the other of the Maharashtra, the most industrious state of India.

Froukh (2001) presents a decision component for demand-forecasting methods as part of

a decision-support system for forecasting water-demand for river basin. The basic

structure of this component consists of three basic parts: export system, multi-criteria

technique, and hypertext files. Due to the importance of domestic demand it is selected

to demonstrate capability of the system.

Seckler (1998) developed a simulation model based on a conceptual and methodological

structure that mixes various strategies from earlier assessments. Projections are made for

three sectors: agriculture, domestic, and industrial water use. Irrigation is a function of

irrigated area, withdrawal of water per hectare of irrigated area, reference

evapotranspiration rates for different countries and irrigation effectiveness. Two separate

irrigation scenarios are developed and in both, the per capita irrigated area is assumed to

be the same in 2025 as it was in 1990. The domestic water in countries reported to be

using less than 10 m3/person/year was doubled in 2025. While in case of others per

capita demand was estimated based on a relationship between per capita GDP and per

36
capita withdrawal. Domestic and industrial uses are capped in countries with a high GDP

at the 1990 level.

In many large equipped cities of the world the water withdrawal for domestic uses is

300-600 lpcd. On the other hand in developing agricultural countries of Asia, Africa, and

Latin America the domestic water withdrawal is 50 to 100 lpcd. In individual regions

with insufficient water resources, it is not more than 10 to 40 lpcd (Shiklomanov 1999).

A new daily time series model for East Doncaster, Melbourne, Australia, is being

evaluated. The model depends on the postulate that total water use is made up of base

use and seasonal use, where base use is characterized by the water use during winter

months and seasonal use on seasonal, climatic, and persistence components. Using the

daily data collected by Yarra Valley Water for East Doncaster water supply distribution

zone and the corresponding rainfall and temperature data from the Bureau of

Meteorology from 1990 to 2000, the base values were calculated based on the lowest

months of water usage in a year and were correlated with the day of the week and

temperature and rainfall. Results revealed these three factors to be statistically significant

and therefore, base use to be climate dependent. The seasonal water use is modeled by a

series of three equations. The separation of the random component from the climatic

variable resulted to a better R2 of 86%. The model is further validated using different set

of data from 2000 to 2001 yielding a R2 of 86 % (Gato et al. 2007).

The stochastic modeling of water demand requires knowledge of the statistical features

of the demand time series at different spatial and temporal aggregations. The observation

of real data has revealed the presence of a nontrivial scaling of the second-order

moments with the number of customers. In a research paper analysis of the spatial and
37
temporal features of the demand at different spatial aggregation scales and sampled with

different temporal resolutions, deriving appropriate scaling law for the first-and second-

order moments. In this context the analytical expressions of the scaling law are first

derived, pointing out the role of the space-time correlation. Then the scaling laws are

empirically derived for two data sets of real indoor water demand data of two different

case studies, sampled with different metering techniques. This enables the evaluation of

the relevance of this effect on real data (Magini et al. 2008).

Water demand forecasting is a crucial component in the successful operation of any

water distribution system. Accurate water demand forecasting across short-, medium-,

and long-term time horizons can be used for capacity planning, scheduling maintenance,

financial planning, rates adjustment and optimization of the operations of a water

distribution organization. Most urban water demand forecasting studies have reported on

short-, medium-, or long-term forecasting, but not across all time horizons. A research

paper by Ghiassi et al. (2008) presents the development of dynamic artificial neural

network model (DAN2) for the comprehensive urban water demand forecasting.

Accurate short-, medium-, and long-term demand forecasting provides water distribution

companies with information for capacity planning, maintenance activities, system

improvements, pumping operations optimization, and the development of purchasing

strategies. They examine the effects of including weather information in the forecasting

models and shows that such inclusion can improve accuracy.

A stochastic end-use model for the simulation of residential water demand has been

developed by Blokker et al. (2009). The end-use model is based on statistical information

of water-using appliances and residential users instead of water demand measurements.

38
The frequency of water use is mainly determined by a Poisson distribution; a negative

binomial distribution is applicable to the frequency of use for the kitchen tap. The

intensity of water use depends on the type of end-use and was described by a constant or

a uniform probability distribution. The duration of water use is either determined by the

user and can be described by a lognormal distribution or by a water-using appliance and

can then be described by a constant. The diurnal water use was estimated by using

statistical information of users’ activities, such as their time of going to bed and getting

up, leaving the house and returning home. With limited input information, a pattern was

predicted for a fraction of the costs involved in the conventional measuring approach.

The result shows that the simulation results are in good agreement with measured water

demand patterns (Blokker et al. 2009).

Koudstaal et al. (2009) deliberated about sustainable development for developed and

developing countries, solution of water related problems being hampered by economic,

financial constraint and inadequate institutional functioning at global level. Results say

that demand management entails the formulation and application of implementation

incentives to limit demand and increase efficiency.

There are overall two basic forecasting techniques used by water demand analysis. The

first is trend based or extrapolative forecasting, where projections of future water

consumption are based on past consumption data. The second is the so called component

or analytical technique, in which water consumption is disaggregated into major

components. Future changes in each component are predicted separately and aggregated.

Most of the studies on the water demand projections also reflect a strong relationship

between per capita GDP and withdrawal. As the GDP of a country increases the water
39
demand also increases in various sectors to support a better quality of life. Past trends

can also give an indication about the likely projected trend of water withdrawal

depending upon population and various socioeconomic-technological factors.

2.7 Water Quality

Pollution of water from industrial effluents, poorly treated sewage, and runoff of

agriculture chemicals, combined with poor household and community sanitary

conditions, is a major contributor to disease and malnutrition, particularly among

children. As human activities increase, more and more waste products are contaminating

available sources of water. Since comprehensive water quality monitoring programmes

in nearly all developing countries are either in their infancy or even non-existent, a clear

picture of the status of water pollution and the extent to which water quality has been

impaired for different potential uses is simply not available at present.

With the available information it is reported that 70 percent of surface waters are

polluted in India. In China 54 of 78 monitored rivers are reported to be seriously affected

by untreated sewage and industrial wastes. And in Malaysia, 40 rivers are so polluted by

sewage and industrial residues that they are almost devoid of fish and aquatic life (Tolba

1988).

Biswas (1993b) analyzed the present status of the impacts of use of pesticides and nitrate

fertilizers from different parts of the world and reported that contamination of

groundwater by agricultural chemicals is being observed increasingly in areas that are

intensively farmed, irrespective of whether these are irrigated or non-irrigated. Use of

40
excessive nitrogen fertilization not only increases the nitrate concentration in

groundwater but also could adversely affect the quantity and quality of crops produced.

Results of primarily irrigated corn in Nebraska indicated that yields can be maintained by

reducing average nitrogen fertilizer application rate upto one-third from 262 to 174

kg/ha. The paper concluded that the water profession would face a critical problem in

terms of efficient agricultural water management in the 21st century, the magnitude and

complexity of which no earlier generation has ever had to face.

Doolan et al. (1993) describes the application of AEAM technique in the development of

a water quality management strategy for Latrobe river in Victoria. It discusses the value

and limitations of the resulting model. Adaptive environmental assessment and

management (AEAM) is a technique for the development and evaluation of

policy/management.

Mageed (1993) reviewed the emerging environmental challenges: water scarcity, water

pollution, water related fertility degradation, water related global environmental issues,

institutional arrangements, funding and financial issues in the field of water resources,

and the strength of EMINWA concept to meet those challenges successfully. The

elements of river basin action plan: environmental assessment, environmental

management, environmental legislation, and supporting measures were also outlined.

Formulation and implementation of EMINWA without doubt involves considerable

expenditure.

Falkenmark (1995) summarized the Stockholm Water Symposium, 1994 which

concentrated on challenges and opportunities related to waste minimization from

industry, deposits of hazardous waste and agriculture. A holistic and integrated approach,
41
encompassing all stages of a product from its production to its use as end disposal, will

be required for greening of industry. More integrated water and land use planning on a

catchment basis with involvement of local end users will increase agricultural yield. A

need to stimulate better informed attitudes to water & overcome communication barriers

between different groups may be the first step in changing lifestyles and attitudes.

HEC-5Q, Simulation of Flood Control and Conservation System’ computer model has

the unique capabilities to accept user-specified water quantity and quality needs system

wide, and to decide how to regulate a network of reservoirs. The decision are

programmed to consider flood control, hydropower, in stream flow (municipal,

industrial, irrigation, water supply, fish habitat), and water-quality requirements (Willey

et al. 1996).

Jun (1997) presented a case study of a region San-Hua in the basin of the Yellow River,

China, consisting of two components. Firstly, the present availability and use of water

resources, including water quality aspects, and secondly the relationships between

population growth, socio-economic developments and wastewater discharge were

analyzed. A Grey System Predictive Model (GSPM) was developed for comprehensive

trend prediction under growing uncertainty for the years 2000 and 2010.

Avogadro et al. (1997) described approach for water resources planning taking into

account both quantity and quality aspects. A decisional procedure is proposed which

consists of two phases. In the first phase, the water resources sharing problem is dealt

with, taking into account the demands of the various water users and the requirement of a

minimum flow in any section of the river. In the second phase, the problem of fulfilling

water quality standards in considered.

42
Jimenez et al. (1998) proposed a method for rapid assessment of water quality from

limited data and its application to Mexico.

The meaning of sustainability in the context of water resources management has changed

through the time. Initially meeting water demand was the dominant concern. While later

quality issues became more important followed by wider water reuse, today

sustainability must include a whole range of aspects (e.g., energy, pollution, persistent

chemicals), spatial and time scales. New approaches to define sustainability metrics are

needed. (Hermanowicz 2008).

The Central and State Pollution Control Boards / Pollution Control Committees in

Union-Territories in India are responsible for restoration and maintenance of the

wholesomeness of aquatic resources. To ensure that the water quality is being maintained

or restored at desired level it is important that the pollution control boards regularly

monitor the water quality. The water quality management in India is performed under the

provision of Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1974. The basic objective

of this Act is to maintain and restore the wholesomeness of national aquatic resources by

prevention and control of pollution. The Act does not define the level of wholesomeness

to be maintained or restored in different water bodies of the country. The Central

Pollution Control Board (CPCB) has tried to define the wholesomeness in terms of

protection of human uses, and thus, taken human uses of water as base for identification

of water quality objectives for different water bodies in the country. It was considered

ambitious to maintain or restore all natural water bodies at pristine level. Planning

pollution control activities to attain such a goal is bound to be deterrent to developmental

activities and cost prohibitive. Since the natural water bodies have got to be used for
43
various competing as well as conflicting demands, the objective is aimed at restoring

and/or maintaining natural water bodies or their parts to such a quality as needed for their

best uses.

The urbanization rate in India is very fast. It has increased from 10.84% in 1901 to

28.5% in 2001. According to the Census figure of 2001, the number of class I cities and

class II towns was around 900. One of the conspicuous features of urbanization in India

is the skewed distribution of population with as much as 28.3% of the urban population

in 35 metropolitan cities. Unregulated growth of urban areas, particularly over the last

two decades, without infrastructural services for proper collection, transportation,

treatment and disposal of domestic waste water led to increased pollution and health

hazards. Fast urbanisation followed by increase in prosperity resulting in steep increase

in waste generation. The municipalities and such other civic authorities are responsible

for management of the waste that have not been able to cope up with this massive task

and could be attributed to various reasons including erosion of authority, inability to

raise revenues and inadequate managerial capabilities. That is why; it became necessary

to launch the Ganga Action Plan and subsequently the National River Conservation Plan,

which are essentially addressed to the task of trapping, diversion and treatment of

municipal wastewater.

As per the estimate of Central Pollution Control Board, about 29,000 million litre/day of

wastewater generated from class-I cities and class-II towns out of which about 45%

(about 13000 mld) is generated from 35 metro-cities alone. The collection system exists

for only about 30% of the wastewater through sewer line and treatment capacity exists

for about 7000 million litre/day. Thus there is a large gap between generation, collection
44
and treatment of wastewater. A large part of un-collected, un-treated wastewater finds its

way to either nearby surface water body or accumulated in the city itself forming

cesspools. In almost all urban centers cesspools exist. These cesspools are good breeding

ground for mosquitoes and also source of groundwater pollution. The wastewater

accumulated in these cesspools gets percolated in the ground and pollute the

groundwater. Also in many cities/towns conventional septic tanks and other low cost

sanitation facilities exists. Due to non-existence of proper maintenance these septic tank

become major source of groundwater pollution. In many urban areas groundwater is only

source of drinking. Thus, a large population is at risk of exposed to water borne diseases

of infectious (bacterial, viral or animal infections) or chemical nature (due to fluoride or

arsenic). Water born diseases are still a great concern in India.

Pollutants are being added to the groundwater system through human activities and

natural processes. Solid waste from industrial units is being dumped near the factories,

and is subjected to reaction with percolating rainwater and reaches the groundwater

level. The percolating water picks up a large amount of dissolved constituents and

reaches the aquifer system and contaminates the groundwater. The problem of

groundwater pollution in several parts of the country has become so acute that unless

urgent steps for abatement are taken, groundwater resources may be damaged.

A vast majority of groundwater quality problems are caused by contamination, over-

exploitation, or combination of the two. Most groundwater quality problems are difficult

to detect & hard to resolve. The solutions are usually very expensive, time consuming &

not always effective. An alarming picture is beginning to emerge in many parts of India.

Groundwater quality is slowly but surely declining everywhere. Groundwater pollution is

45
intrinsically difficult to detect, since problem may well be concealed below the surface &

monitoring is costly, time consuming & somewhat hit-or-miss by nature. Many times the

contamination is not detected until obnoxious substances actually appear in water used,

by which time the pollution has often dispersed over a large area. Essentially all

activities carried out on land have the potential to contaminate the groundwater, whether

associated with urban, industrial or agricultural activities. Large scale, concentrated

sources of pollution such as industrial discharges, landfills & subsurface injection of

chemicals & hazardous wastes, are an obvious source of groundwater pollution. These

concentrated sources can be easily detected & regulated but the more difficult problem is

associated with diffuse sources of pollution like leaching of agrochemicals & animal

wastes subsurface discharges from latrines & septic tanks & infiltration of polluted urban

run-off & sewage where sewerage does not exists or defunct. Diffuse sources can affect

entire aquifers, which is difficult to control & treat. The only solution to diffuse sources

of pollution is to integrate land use with water management. Once pollution has entered

the sub-surface environment, it may remain concealed for many years, becoming

dispersed over wide areas & rendering groundwater supplies unsuitable for human uses.

Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB 2000) while assessing the water quality

classification of River Yamuna, used three water quality variables namely BOD

(biochemical oxygen demand), DO (dissolved oxygen) and F. Coli (faecal coliforms).

Four water quality classes are distinguished. The range of BOD for class A is < 3mg/l,

for class B (3-6 mg/l), for class C (6-10 mg/l) and for class D (10-30 mg/l). In order to

reduce quality parameters for the large scale study at national level, the single variable,

BOD is considered to give classification (Board 1995).

46
One of the major components of groundwater pollution in India is nitrate and is

attributed to the increasing use of fertilizers in the agriculture. So for the assessment of

groundwater quality in the present study, the nitrate is considered as water quality

parameter. The classification of groundwater into water quality classes is not available in

India. Based on the guidelines of Commission of the European Communities,

1977(Communities et al. 1977); (Golubev 1993); (Organization 1998), the range of

Nitrogen concentration for class A is assumed as (<10mg/l) for class B (10-25 mg/l), for

class C (25-50 mg/l), for D ( >50 mg/l).

Water quality is an important issue and must be integrated in related models for a

sustainable development of water resources.

2.8 Water Resources Planning and Management studies for sustainability

Kindler (1988) discussed multi-objective analysis for environmentally sound

development and management of water resources considering environmental, economic

and social goals together and pointed out “real world problems are multi-objective and

imposition of a single objective approach on such problems is overly restrictive and

unrealistic”. However, lack of sufficient data forces establishment of minimum

sustainable threshold levels to environmental impacts and treating them as constraints in

project planning and decisions. The notion of non-inferior solutions and selection of

“best compromise” solution among them out weights the concept of optimality. The

paper concludes with this approach on EMINWA (Environmentally Sound Management

47
of Inland Water) formulation and suggested that more research and investigations are

needed to develop a fully operational and sufficiently flexible methodology.

David (1988) reviewed existing knowledge of water resources management in the

Zambezi river basin and identified areas where the information is inadequate. The

Zambezi Action Plan (ZACPLAN), the first EMINWA implementation, is discussed

with its major components and implementation plans. Priority has been given to national

capabilities and means of responding to the problems and unified monitoring system

during the initial phase of compilation of on-going development projects, to serve as

feedback for the success of the program.

Golubev (1988) stressed that the meaningful development must be sustainable

development and so the management of water resources must also be sustainable. In the

supply-demand interaction there is an increasing emphasis in the water management on

the reduction of demand. However, water should be considered not only as a resource

but also as a major actor in any ecosystem, and a carrier of matter in global

biogeochemical cycles. To take into account different functions of water and to pursue

sustainable economic development, basin wide environmental management of water

resources needs to be exercised.

Bauer (1988) advances the argument that environmental care (physical and social) is an

essential component of integral and sustainable development. The paper proposed an

environmental management of development (EMD) methodology involving three aspects

of management-planning, execution, and control - in a continuous and interactive process

whose instruments and characteristics are enunciated stressing their environmental aim.

48
Chitale (1989) summarises recent experiences in the management of the major

environmental issues of the water resource developments as resettlement of displaced

population, water logging, deforestation, pisciculture, reservoir sedimentation, water

quality and impact on climate. It was also observed that earlier planners were also well

aware of the environmental consequences of their works. It was further noted that

experiences across the world indicate that many of the problems of reconciling

development and environment result from failure to consider them simultaneously and

from adopting a compartmentalized approach to planning rather than a multidisciplinary,

integrated approach. The paper concludes by stressing that environmental degradation

may occur not only as a result of inappropriate development but also due to lack of

development.

Biswas (1988) identified five major factors that are severely hampering the effective

planning, design and management of water resources systems for sustainable

development in developing countries. These are - (i) incomplete framework for analysis

ignoring positive impacts of development, (ii) lack of appropriate methodology for

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), (iii) inadequate knowledge about the effects of

water development projects, (iv) institutional constraints (multilicipty of authorities), (v)

absence of monitoring and evaluation as a part of the management process.

Glasbergen (1990) presented various elements of a systems approach to water resource

management. He pointed out that such approach consider the ecosystem of given area

and all its physical, chemical and biological characteristics and processes. He pointed

out that the policy network approach as most adequate administrative strategy for

49
different situations among the different government and public organizations. He also

discussed the cases of its application in Netherland.

Golubev (1993) reviewed the principal water problems in the perspective of sustainable

development strategy: the main functions of fresh water in the Earth system, availability

of water resources per capita by countries, the impact of climate change, problems

related to dams and reservoirs and to water transfers, the issue of irrigation, water

management in a multidisciplinary space, water quality problems and their management,

the need for comprehensive basin wide strategies in planning and management of water

resources and development. It was also reported that 'one of the problems in sustainable

water development is to change not only the water management strategy but also the

minds of the manager'. Many of the world's water resources development experts are too

narrow- minded and do not consider environmental and socio-economic issues to be an

integral part of water management. Proper training and awareness-building are therefore

important aspects of sustainable water development'.

Dealing with significantly large design problems for water-resources systems a mixed

optimization procedure based on network linear programming and the sub gradient

method is described. Using a linear problem formulation, the procedure uses network

linear programming as a sub problem that assumes the knowledge of design variables.

Since inside its domain, the global objective functions is a convex piecewise linear

function, a sub gradient method is used to obtain the direction of the improvement of

design variables at each iteration using the solutions of the network sub problem. The

mixed technique permits an efficient evaluation of the design variables in order to reach

a good approximation of the global objectives function optimum. The solution technique
50
performs well in the purely linear case and, moreover, allows some kinds of

nonlinearities in the cost functions of design variables (Niedda and Sechi 1996).

Carruthers (1996 ) reported that irrigation and water development strategies have been

hampered by lack of understanding of the links between water scarcity, food production

security, and environmental sustainability. Research to improve this understanding

would have high payoffs.

Elarabawy et al.(1998) argues the knowledge of demand of water for all purposes in

short and long term future are crucial for water resources planning water from each

possible source is quantified, to estimate the potential for future water supply water

supply-demand balance is examined with possible combinations of policies and planning

alternative for Egypt- a country with Nile river valley and Nile delta and rich agriculture

land and mentioned serious water deficit after 2000 unless water policies to increase

annual reuse of drainage water, exploitation of ground water unless water policies to

increase annual reuse of drainage water, exploitation of ground water and application of

water saving measures within each demand category are strictly implemented.

Integrated water resources management involves purposes such as flood mitigation,

navigation, water supply, water quality management, and others. The decision making

process is generally complex and involves many data, scenarios, models, alternatives,

decision makers and stakeholders. In water resources management, the use of

multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) studied by Rossi et al. (2005). Ranking of

alternatives with uncertainties under frame work of MCDA has been studied by Xu

(2009). The purpose of his paper was threefold: (1) to examine the uncertainty in

decision making in a systematic way; (2) to provide information about various decision
51
rules capable of solving alternative ranking problems under uncertainty; and (3) to

evaluate the utility of different decision rules in water resources management.

The interdisciplinary nature of water resources problems requires the integration of

technical, economic, environmental, social and legal aspects into a coherent analytical

framework. Holistic water resource-economic models (HWEM) ((Noel and Howitt

1982); (Booker and Young 1994); (Box and Draper 1987) conduct information transfer

between hydrologic, agronomic, and economic components endogenously; they presents

a simple approach for building truly integrated water resources and economic models.

HWEMs are formulated as consistent optimization models, with the objective of

maximizing the economic benefits of various water uses. The constraints and

relationship involved in these models include: (1) water supply constraints such as

hydrologic balance, capacity of water supply facilities, and water quality; (2) production

functions such as crop yield functions and profit functions of urban water uses; and (3)

policy regulations or economic incentives on water demands (Cai et al. 2001).

Codner (2003) studied the sustainability of potable water supplies in developing

countries.

Abrishmchi et al. (2005) made an attempt to put into practice the multicriteria decision

making technique of compromise programming for a real urban water management case

study in the city of Zahidan in Iran. Zahidan faces serious water problems in terms of

both quality and quantity. To satisfy future water demands, a long-distance water

transmission project is being implemented. Compromise programming is applied to

aiding decision makers in selecting the best possible alternatives for distribution of both

available and transmitted water in the city. The results obtained reveal that the method is
52
capable of being employed by decision-makers for comprehensive urban water

management studies.

An HWEM can be applied to policy analysis- that is, examining the economic and

environmental consequences of a given economic incentives- or searching an optimal

policy under certain environmental conditions. However, when HWEM is solved for the

optimal solution driven by the objective with certain given policy or operational options,

there is often a significant difference between the model outputs and the observed data.

The difference can be found not only with physical and engineering variables such as

reservoir storages or flow release, but also with the economic outputs such as water

allocation or irrigated crop yield and area. A paper on calibrating HWEM-economic

models presented by Cai and Wang (2006). In that paper, an integrated framework was

developed to calibrate water resources, engineering, and economic outputs

simultaneously; the calibration procedure is implemented by using a hybrid genetic

algorithm (GA).

An interval stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is presented and developed

for long-term planning of water resources system under uncertainty. The developed

program is a hybrid of SDP and interval-number optimization. It can deal with recourse-

based planning problems associated with dynamic features, data uncertainties, and

multistage concerns. Though the developed model is demonstrated with a simple work

example, the solutions are reasonable which indicates the applicability of the developed

model for water resources system planning problems with capacity expansion. Obtained

results are further analyzed and interpreted for identifying significant factors that affect

the system dynamics. With uncertainties for modeling parameters being presented as
53
intervals, the interval SDP can effectively communicate them into interval two-stage

stochastic programming and dynamic linear optimization framework, leading to

simplified sub-models with reduced computational requirements. Though the interval

SDP is based on linear programming, it can be extended to more sophisticated models by

incorporating quadratic optimization within its modeling process for obtaining improved

applicability (Luo et al. 2007).

The paper on “Exploring the gap between water managers and researchers: Difficulties

of model-based tools to support practical water management” presents the results of a

two-year long elicitation phase which aimed to explain why the use of tools in water

management is not as great as the corresponding investment in applied research in this

area might suggest it should be. The paper identifies a gap between water managers and

research community that is evidence of a mutual misunderstanding of the fundamental

activities of both communities. The recommendations include improving researchers’

understanding of water management processes and the role their tools play within such a

process; identifying for both communities the importance that such tools can play as part

of social learning oriented management processes; improving the role of software

consultancies as carriers of research results; considering new methods of model

transferability between target basins; and expanding the structure of funding for

academic research and development projects to allow (Borowski and Hare 2007).

The role of model interfaces or participation in water management has been studied by

Thomas (2007). He discussed in the article that up to which degree computer- and

Internet-based tools and complementary instruments can help to & present information to

54
the public, & allow interactive access to data and creating own results, & allow the

public to exchange views and raise objections and ideas.

Welsh (2008) studied water balance modelling in Bowen, Queensland.

Most of the published works to date on simulation optimization applications are confined

to small- to medium-size sites. In those cases, a single or centralized decision maker is

able to define relevant objectives and preferred solutions. When applying systems

analysis to a large-scale problem, however, new difficulties arise. First, generally there

exists more than one decision maker, and therefore numerous conflicting objectives can

be defined. Second, the number of decision and state variables may increase rapidly with

the scale of the problem, increasing the computational burden of obtaining optimal

solutions. Furthermore, from a policy perspective, decision makers are faced with the

problem of devising management tools to deal with decision variables that may not be

under centralized management. When a decision maker can define a problem and

articulate the objectives for its solution, it is said that the problem is well structured. In

such circumstances, traditional prescriptive analytical techniques may prove

unsatisfactory to decision makers, and therefore more flexible interactive approaches

should be sought.

There is a necessity to establish some cause-effect relationship between sub-sectors (and

sub-models), integration of sub-sectors and a dynamic simulation is to be worked out for

a visualization of a policy in a search of a sustainable policy. System dynamics modeling

may probably be a viable option to model the various interactions in water resources

sector and may be useful to evolve a sustainable policy framework.

55
2.9 System Dynamics Studies

Forrester (1961) provides a detailed description of the philosophy and tools developed to

study the dynamic behaviour of the complex systems. Use of the methodology was

illustrated through the analysis of problems in an industrial firm. Many difficult issues

such as the uses of empirical data in model construction, and the tests of model validity

were also discussed.

Forrester (1969) applied the system dynamics modeling techniques to urban problems. It

was explained, the way in which land constraints, human goals, and the aging of

structures interact to stop urban growth and bring about a stagnation characterized by

unemployment, deteriorating housing, and high taxes.

Forrester (1971) presented the preliminary global model, World2. World2 is a theory of

the long term causes and consequences of population growth and material progress. The

model was used to discuss the dynamic implications of various physical, biological, and

social constraints, on growth of the globe’s population and material output.

Meadows (1972) in the book “The Limits to Growth”, describes the dynamic

characteristics of exponential growth, the physical limits to growth imposed by a finite

planet, the relation of technological advance to physical constraints, and the various

levels of population and material consumption that might be accommodated upon this

earth. The Limits to Growth also summarizes the assumptions comprising revised global

model, World3, and illustrated the conclusions derived from it through the use of twelve

computer simulation runs generated by the model.

56
Meadows et al.(1974) presented a detailed description of World3, the computer model

that was constructed to facilitate understanding of growth in global population and

material output. The model presented an easily understood, dynamic theory of the long

term, complex changes arising from physical growth in a finite environment. It also

provides a technical basis for multidisciplinary courses on population, the environment,

and economic development.

Thissen (1976) and (1978) published a series of five papers in order to understanding of

basic mechanism of each sub-sytem of world-3 model. The five papers covered (i) The

Capital and Resources Subsystem (Thissen, 1976) (ii) Overall Model behaviour and

policy conclusion ( Thissen,1978a) (iii) Lesson to understanding Complicated Models

(Thissen,1978b) (iv) Population in club of Rome World-3 model (v) The Agiculture and

persistent pollution Substem in world-3.

Acharya and Saeed (1998) modified the “Limits of Growth “model to accommodate

model variety implicit in the perspective in order to understand hidden assumptions of

each perspective. However, the modified model outcomes were found to be similar to the

outcome of original model.

Hoekstra et al.(1998) developed a system-dynamics-based integrated water assessment

tool AQUA designed to analyze the long-term interaction between water and

development. It is an explorative tool meant for exploring the implications of varying

assumptions and hypothesis. The tools consist of three main components: a simulation

model, a set of indicators linked to this model and a framework of perspectives to

analyze uncertainties. The model takes into account the functions of the water system

57
that are considered most relevant in the context of global change. Applications of the

AQUA model to world and Zambezi basin were presented.

A system dynamics approach approach facilitates the identification of important

information about the structure and behaviour of systems required for the development

of effective policies and actions. A system dynamics approach, especially group model

building efforts also support learning and shifts in mental models of decision makers and

development planners and is a common language to support interdisciplinary

communication and cooperative planning also required for the design and

implementation of sustainable development strategies (Kelly 1998).

Fahmy (1999) Presented an integrated object oriented modeling approach with system

analysis to structure water policy choices. An original theoretical framework is

introduced for water policy analysis. It integrates the object oriented modeling approach

with system analysis and captures a policy process through (1) structure development,

(2) selection of policy variables, (3) selection of policy evaluation indicators and (4)

dynamic system simulation. Water resources policy analysis deals with the protection of

people from the harmful effects of water and assurance of a consistent, adequate supply

of usable water. Population and regulatory pressures, political and economic instabilities,

and climatic variations can all be expected to further stress water supply resources.

Developing policy for managing water systems for human needs in such an environment

is difficult, slow, and very costly. The approach to water resources policy analysis

developed in this paper is that of the rational decision maker who lays out goals and uses

logical processes to explore the best way to reach those goals. The decision maker may

be an individual or a group. The emphasis in this paper is on how water resources

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decisions ought to be analyzed and made. The main concern of the paper is to show –

how water policy analysis process should be structured to best address a policy choice

and with the object oriented model that will aid understanding and prediction.

Kothari (1999) studied the chambal river basin for sustainable development. A system

dynamics based model for a river basin was developed. The model consisted of five

major sectors- population; industrial and capital; agriculture; water resources and natural

resources sectors. The model considered inter-relationship among different sectors of

system dynamics in nature and was used to simulate long-term system’s response to

depict the water supply-demand scenario in chambel river basin and behavior of other

model parameters. Demand management in industry, agriculture and city living were

taken for evolving a sustainable policy. It was demonstrated that if present policies are

continued in the future, the basin is likely to face tremendous shortage of water, even

after exploiting the entire water resources. But through sustainable policy run, it was

shown that implementing sustainable development policy can circumvent the situation,

and the industrial growth and economic development in the basin could be sustained.

On the basis of world3 model, Simonvic (2002) developed WorldWater model

incorporating water resources sector (quantity and quality). WorldWater simulation

demonstrated the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspect

of world development (Simonovic 2002). A limited effort has been devoted to global

modeling of water resources that is taking into consideration dynamic interactions

between quantitative characteristics of available water resources and water use. Two

efforts (the TARGETS and the WorldWater) in the field of global water modeling

deserve special attention because it is dynamic in nature. Dynamic feedback relationship

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between physical characteristics of water balance and population growth, development of

agriculture and industry; technological development; and use of other resources are

captured explicitly in these models.

Sustainability analysis for Yellow River Water Resources using the System Dynamics

Approach has been studied by Xu et al. (2002) . It should be noted that the system

dynamics approach is more beneficial for indicating the internal dynamics, rather than

predicting the exact future system states. Another important role of this study, therefore,

was to have provided the basis for analysing the internal dynamics of the water resources

system in the Yellow River basin.

The use of systems thinking tools can be effective in enabling stakeholders to increase

their insight into the nature of a contentious conflict between the two groups faced with a

water allocation problem. It also shows how the results of system dynamics simulations

can assist in making wise decisions regarding the resolution of the conflict(Nandalal and

Simonovic 2003).

World Water model is developed and used to assess global world water resources using

system dynamics approach. It has shown that: (a) there is a strong relationship between

the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world, and (b) the water

pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level. Solutions for water

problems are at the regional level and the work presented in research paper which

includes initial results of the transformation of World Water into Canada Water regional

model. Regional characteristics of Canadian water resources demand considerable

increase in the complexity of the model. First results indicate that Canada Water model

has a potential to identify water-related issues of national priority and assist policy
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makers in evaluating various sustainable solutions for Canadian ‘troubled’ waters

(Simonovic 2003).

Sendzimir et al. (2004) describes an initiative to use conceptual and formal modelling

within an Adaptive Management framework to facilitate a regional discussion on how to

manage the TRB while inventing a pathway back to a more resilient socio-ecosystem,

linking natural and social processes. The erosion of biocomplexity in the Tisza River

Basin developed slowly and incrementally over the past 130 years since implementation

of the original Vasarhelyi river engineering plan. The Hungarian public view, blinded by

flood and toxic spill catastrophes, missed the slow and subtle changes to natural, social

and human capital precipitated by the reshaping of the TRB landscape and its agriculture

for flood defence and grain production. In the paper, the author has presented that causal

loop diagramming is useful tool to synthesize an initial overview of the factors and

relations driving the erosion of biocomplexity in the TRB.

Hasan (2004) developed a framework model based on system dynamics concepts and

was named INDIAWATER. The model was to explore the various policy options with

the help of an interactive model in the search of sustainable policy for water resources

development. The operating policy and data framework for simulation of

INDIAWATER in the Indian context had been worked out. It had been implemented in

the Simulation and Visualisation environment M, which runs through windows. It is

needed to generate an executable code, from the Ccode into which M package translates

the set of equations making up an M model. The model was run for various scenarios and

results were presented and analyzed for a sustainable policy.

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Elshorbagy et al.(2005) presented that Watershed modeling plays a central role in

assessing the hydrologic performance of reconstructed watersheds. A system dynamics

watershed model (SDWM) is developed and used in this paper to assess one of the cover

strategies implemented by one of the major oil companies in northern Alberta. The

developed model suggests that the proposed cover could be successful in restoring two of

the major watershed functions that can label the cover strategy as a sustainable solution

to the problem of watershed disturbance. The SDWM developed in this paper is a

lumped hydrologic model.

Ewers a comprehensive analysis of drought and its impact in the basin to support the

decision (2005) Presented making efforts of diverse stakeholders, as well as a model to

simulate the reallocation of water and its impacts on the basin. This study addresses the

development of a system dynamics model to simulate surface water inflows and

diversions in order for stakeholders to ask “what if” questions regarding reallocation of

water uses in the basin. A system dynamics simulation model for the San Juan watershed

(located in the states of New Mexico and Colorado) is developed.

Luo et al.(2006) presented a system dynamics study to investigate sustainable water

management of irrigation systems in China. Water resources scarcity and irrigation-

induced soil salinisation threaten the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in arid and

semi-arid areas. The study focused on the Liuyuankou Irrigation System (LIS) in the

lower Yellow River Basin. In the lower Yellow River Basin irrigation systems, crops in

the upland are usually irrigated with surface water from the river and crops in the

lowland are mainly irrigated with pumped groundwater. Control of the groundwater table

was the key issue in sustainable irrigation management. A conceptual system dynamic
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model of the LIS hydrologic system was developed and validated with indirect structure

tests. The model provided a comprehensive and general description of the long-term

process of groundwater table fluctuations under continuous irrigation practice. Analysis

of the model and simulation results reveals under what conditions the groundwater table

reaches alarming levels and with what strategies it can be controlled. Strategies for

sustainable water-resources development were investigated.

The urban water supply system of Tehran is given as a case study by Bagheri and Hjorth

(2007). The results of this application show that the flows of informative signals are

lacking. Adopting the process indicators, we can see the gaps between the public

perceptions of water abundance, the costs of water provision and energy utilizations, and

what is going on in the reality are getting wider. That indicates that the viability loops are

not functional enough to produce effective changes to offset the reinforcing mechanisms.

The sustainable development of the system is impaired due to the persistence of those

reinforcing mechanisms.

New agenda items of sustainability, multiple bottom lines, stakeholder participation and

the efficient management of scarce and contested water resources pose significant

challenges for resource planners and managers. Dynamic simulation methodologies such

as system dynamics can be applied to address these issues and scope the future. Despite

various limitations, system dynamics is well suited for multidisciplinary and multi-actor

problems but not operational problems in integrated water resources management. SDM

presents an important opportunity to improve water management strategies,

prospectively enhancing the resilience of the system as a whole. It provides a well-

grounded, flexible and realistic approach to identifying and dealing with inherent
63
uncertainties in water resources management. Hence, it prospectively provides a critical

tool in adaptive management applications, assisting in derivation and ownership of

realistic visions for water resources management, and the development of strategies that

must be adopted to achieve these goals(Winz et al. 2009).

Sennye Masike (2010) studied the application of system dynamic approach for water

planning and decision making under water scarcity at Jwaneng diamond mine. Findings

reveal that water use is also highly erratic. Results from the simulating reveal that

reducing water use per tonnage and increasing water reuse will lead to water saving and

conservation at the mines.

A SD modelling framework for understanding and analysing the complex dynamics of

supply and demand in Yulin City was presented by Wang. The model was used to assess

the impacts of various supply and demand management measures(Wang et al. 2011).

Menzel and Matovelle (2010) investigated the current and future situation of blue water

availability; blue water withdrawals and the occurrence of water stress in seven case

studies distributed over Africa, Europe and Central Asia. They used WaterGAP (Water –

Global Assessment and Prognosis) model that aims at providing a basis for an

assessment of current and future water resources and water uses. WaterGAP consists of

two main components: a global hydrology model to simulate the terrestrial water cycle

and a global water use model to estimate water withdrawals and water consumption. The

results of the study demonstrated that climate as well as socio-economic change will

have a large impact on the future availability of water resources, their use and

consequently on the occurrence of water stress. These changes will probably have

important consequences for the people living in the affected regions as well as on the
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river ecosystems with large regional differences and suggested implementation of

integrated water resources management to deal with these uncertainties. Although

Menzel (2010) has not used the system dynamics concept exactly but the paper is useful

in understanding the role of socio-economic changes along with population growth on

possible water withdrawals and water availability under various scenarios and associated

water stresses to be integrated in a sustainable development program.

2.10 Summary

Water is prime requirement for all aspects of life. Fast growing population, rapid

urbanization, industrialization coupled with spatial & temporal variations in water

availability, water quality problems, etc. demands an integrated study of water resources

for a sustainable system. Comprehensive policy for water resources development is not

available and the decisions are taken on adhoc basis, particularly with reference to India.

The literature review further indicates that management of water resources is still

fragmented that is most practitioners in the water resources area have probably studied

different components separately. It is difficult to predict the long-term water supply and

demand but it is inevitable. There is a need of integrated water resources development

studies that includes projection of water demand encompassing population and economic

development, technological awareness, economic aspects of water, and water resources

availability in a sustainable manner for better understanding and development of water

system. Realistic operational models for sustainable development of water are required.

Such integration must consider all types of interrelated freshwater bodies, including both
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surface water and groundwater, and duly consider water quantity and quality aspects, as

well as the multi-interest utilization of water resources for water supply and sanitation,

agriculture, industry, urban development, power generation etc. Rational water

utilization schemes for the development of surface and ground water-supply sources and

other potential sources have to be supported by concurrent water conservation and

wastage minimization measures.

Most of the guidelines address qualitative aspects of problems but they must be

transformed into qualitative plans of action that provide precise guidance for making

decisions. Hence an analytical framework that incorporates quantifiable sustainable

sustainability criteria into water resources systems models is needed, particularly so with

reference to India.

It appears that system dynamics approach is most appropriate for the study of sustainable

development of water resources. The water resources system is dynamic and may be

characterized as a formal model of an open system, as the water system interacts with its

surroundings of human development. The system dynamics has been most commonly

used in the business and industrial sectors and has its impacts in these sectors. These

sectors are in general relatively small and have limited stakeholders as compared to

natural resources systems. Further natural resources systems are very complex and very

difficult to understand the overall behavior of the system. Hence it is very difficult to

simulate the long term behavior with certainty but it certainly helps in understanding the

systems behavior. Therefore, the system dynamics approach is used in the present study

to formulate various linkages among various sectors in water resources in an interactive

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manner to explore a feasible sustainable policy space for the needs of growing

population to sustain a reasonable quality of life and is discussed in coming chapters.

It may be noted that the field observational capacities have not been able to keep pace

with the increasing mathematical capabilities of the computers. This limitation should be

kept in mind. Nature cannot be truly and fully measured in prototype but it helps in

understanding the overall behavior in a general qualitative manner.

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