Business Development Bank-RTP-December 2025
Business Development Bank-RTP-December 2025
6 Appendix
Source: Moody’s Ratings, Credit Conditions – Global 2026 Outlook - Politics, innovation and extreme weather will drive credit conditions, November 2025
Source: Moody‘s Ratings, Banks – Global: 2026 Outlook – Stable as economic growth, lower rates support asset quality, 3 December 2025
The Industry Outlook (positive, stable or negative) indicates our forward-looking assessment of fundamental credit conditions that will affect the creditworthiness of the [Region] banking industry over the next 12-18 months. As such, the outlook provides our view of how the operating environment for the industry, including
macroeconomic, competitive, and regulatory trends, will affect, among other things, asset quality, capital, funding, liquidity, and profitability. Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on credit conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more
likely on average. However, the outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades, or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the direction of credit fundamentals overall within the industry broadly.
Source: Moody‘s Ratings, Global Macro Outlook 2025-26 (February 2025 Update) – US trade policy and government downsizing elevate risks to the global economy, February 2025
Source: Moody‘s Ratings, Banks – Global: 2025 outlook – Improves to stable, underpinned by stabilizing economic growth, December 2024
Source: Moody‘s Ratings, Banking System Outlook – Uzbekistan – Robust economy and solid capital buffers support the stable outlook, 26 February 2025
Macro Financial Qualitative Baseline Credit Affiliate Adjusted BCA Loss Given Government Final
Profile Profile Adjustments Assessment (BCA) Support Failure (LGF) Support Credit Ratings
analysis
Scorecard Ratios
Business development bank BCA: caa Median caa rated banks
0
0
0
50
Solvency Factors
iquidity Factors
0
00 0
5 5
20
2
0
0
Asset Risk: Capital: Profitability: Funding Structure: iquid Resources:
Problem oans Tangible Common et ncome ess stable Funds Core Banking iquidity
Gross oans quity Risk eighted Tangible Assets Tangible Banking Tangible Banking
Assets Assets Assets
Solvency Factors S iquidity Factors R S
Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade
→ An improvement in BDB's asset quality and capital adequacy, → BDB's long-term deposit ratings and BCA could be
coupled with sustainable robust profitability could lead to a BCA downgraded if there is material erosion of the bank's financial
upgrade or change in the outlook on the bank's long-term deposit fundamentals, namely asset quality, capitalisation or liquidity.
ratings to positive in the next 12-18 months.
→ BDB's long-term deposit ratings could also be downgraded if
the Government of Uzbekistan appears less likely to continue
to support the bank, which is not currently expected.
1 2 3
Methodology steps
*Excluding adjustment related to sovereign default history and track record of arrears **Excluding risks related to the banking sector ***The initial score is expressed as a three-notch range. We then
assign a single score that is within this range.
Macro Profile builds on three components from our sovereign scorecard, and three banking components. Credit Conditions factor weighted
more as metrics deteriorate.
Weighted The Weighted Macro Profile is sensitive to a deterioration and to an improvement of the
Weak -
Macro Profile Uzbekistan’s Macro Profile
→ We expect BDB's asset quality to improve steadily over the next 12-18 70%
62.8%
months because of the cleanup of the bank's loan book since Q3 2023 and 60%
servicing capacity. Most problem loans (PLs; defined as Stage 3 loans 40%
disclosed under IFRS 9) were identified and had crystallised by mid-2024. 30%
23.3%
disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and black-outs in 10% 5.1%5.8%
2023. Although lending and leasing to corporate clients accounted for 54% of Source: Moody‘s Ratings
the loan book, it comprised 73% of PLs as of mid-2025. The deterioration is Business JSCB Development Bank Banque du Caire Co-operative Bank
attributable to weakened payment discipline of corporate borrowers because development bank Microcreditbank of Mongolia LLC SAE of Kenya Limited
of external shocks and weak underwriting standards at BDB in general. Macro Profile Weak - Weak - Weak - Very Weak Very Weak +
→ We expect that most of the problems have already been identified. The PL PL % Gross Loans 24.0% 16.6% 62.8% 6.1% 15.2%
ratio is expected to decrease in the next 12-18 months amid the ongoing Initial Score caa2 caa2 caa3 caa2 caa2
cleanup of the corporate loan book. We assign an Asset Risk score of caa2 to Notching 0 0 0 0 -1
reflect the expected trends
Assigned Score caa2 caa2 caa3 caa2 caa3
TCE / RWA
capital support from the government, FRDU and MinEcoFin by June 2024, injected equity in 12.3%
form of common shares to over UZS3 bln (61% increase compared to the year-end 2023 or 10.0%
10% 8.7%
4.2% compared to RWAs of 2023). Additional UZS2.2 trillion in equity support was injected in
the second half of 2024 according to the local standards by MinEcoFin, equivalent to another
5%
8.1% of 2023 RWAs.
→ We expect modest loan book growth in 2025-26 because of the ongoing cleanup of the bank's 0%
Business development bank JSCB Microcreditbank Development Bank of Banque du Caire SAE Co-operative Bank of Kenya
loan portfolio and a relaunch of its lending activity, as well as loss making net financial results Source: Moody‘s Ratings
(caa1) (ba3) Mongolia LLC (caa1) Limited
(b1) (b2)
for 2024 and modest net profit in 2025. Together with equity support from shareholders, this
could result in an increase in the TCE ratio to 9%-10% in the next 12-18 months, which is Business JSCB Development Bank Banque du Caire Co-operative Bank of
development bank Microcreditbank of Mongolia LLC SAE Kenya Limited
reflected in the assigned Capital score of caa1. Meanwhile, the Texas ratio, which reflects the
coverage of PLs by reserves and TCE, will improve significantly to 50% in the next 12-18 Macro Profile Weak - Weak - Weak - Very Weak Very Weak +
months from 115% as of year-end 2023.
TCE % RWA 6.9% 17.6% 12.3% 11.0% 14.0%
→ BDB reported a statutory Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio and a Total capital ratio
Initial Score caa1 ba2 b2 caa2 b2
of 14.6% and 19.5%, respectively, as of 31 of December 2024, well above the regulatory
thresholds of 8% and 10%. The bank's capital adequacy benefits from the low-risk weight Notching 0 -1 1 1 0
applied to loans secured by residential properties, as allowed by both Basel I and the local
regulation. Assigned Score caa1 ba3 b1 caa1 b2
→ Despite large capital injections in 2024 and expected ongoing support from the state to BDB, Key Driver #1 - Expected trend Expected trend Access to capital
Risk-weighted
capitalisation
we expect that resumed growth in 2025-2026, still high provisioning charges as well as legacy
Key Driver #2 - - - Expected trend -
asset problems will continue to weigh down its capital profile. Because of these risks as well
as metrics volatility we assign caa1 score for capital. Macro Adjusted Score = Worse of last reported or average (3 year + YTD)
Source: Moody‘s Ratings as of December 2025
→ For the first half of 2024, the bank reported a net loss of UZS219 billion, mainly -3%
-4%
because of significant provisioning charges of 6.0% of the average gross loan book. -4.0%
-5% -4.3%
In the next 12-18 months, BDB's profitability will remain supported by the bank's Business development bank JSCB Microcreditbank Development Bank of Mongolia Banque du Caire SAE Co-operative Bank of Kenya
(caa1) (caa3) LLC (b3) Limited
strong net interest margin (NIM), which was 6.8% in the first half of 2024, reflecting Source: Moody‘s Ratings
(caa2) (ba1)
its access to low-cost government-related funding and high interest rates. The bank
managed to improve its operating efficiency, with the cost-to-income ratio declining to Business JSCB Development Bank of Banque du Caire Co-operative Bank of
development bank Microcreditbank Mongolia LLC SAE Kenya Limited
44% in the first half of 2024 from 62% a year earlier. However, the bank's bottom-line
Macro Profile Weak - Weak - Weak - Very Weak Very Weak +
performance has been and will continue to be constrained by significantly higher
provisioning charges, leading to a net loss for the second consecutive year Net Income % TA -1.5% -2.6% -0.3% 1.7% 3.4%
→ Return on tangible assets was a negative 1.5% for the first 6 months of 2024, Initial Score caa3 caa3 caa2 b3 ba1
compared with negative 1.8% for the full year 2023. We expect credit costs to
Notching 2 0 0 0 0
moderate gradually in 2025 and 2026 as most PLs were identified and crystallised.
This will lead to an improvement in the net financial result over the next 12-18 Assigned Score caa1 caa3 caa2 b3 ba1
months, but the results will still be weighed down by legacy loan provisioning. We
Key Driver #1 - Expected trend - Expected trend Return on assets
assign a Profitability score of caa1, which reflects expected trends and a two-notch
downward adjustment for highly volatile profitability in recent two-three years. Key Driver #2 - - - - Expected trend
60%
over the next 12-18 months, reflecting its high reliance on long- 50%
10%
upwards by one notches to b3 to reflect the long-term nature of this
0%
funding and its limited refinancing risks. We estimate that the share Business development bank JSCB Microcreditbank Development Bank of
Mongolia LLC
Banque du Caire SAE Co-operative Bank of Kenya
Limited
of the government in the bank's liabilities, including state-owned Source: Moody‘s Ratings
19.5%
although from a low base. The liquid asset buffer increased to 23% 20%
16.5%
Assets
15% 13.5%
2023. We expect this buffer to remain in the short-medium term, as 10% 7.8%
above 20% of assets in the next 12-18 months, which is reflected Business development
bank
JSCB Microcreditbank Development Bank of
Mongolia LLC
Banque du Caire SAE Co-operative Bank of
Kenya Limited
business line or within its core geographic operating area. things being equal. Some balance sheets are particularly a risk appetite that exceeds that of peer institutions are often
+ Positive adjustments opaque, creating additional challenges in accurately principal causes of bank failure.
assessing financial risk. + Positive adjustments
→ Diverse range of business activities & funding sources
+ Positive adjustments → E.g. sustained exemplary stewardship over time with
→ Broad diversification across markets, with
demonstrated low levels of interconnectedness → None tangible impact on the risk profile
0 0 0
& peers13
0 0 0
Weak -
→ The Weighted Macro Profile is sensitive to a deterioration and to
an improvement of the Uzbekistan’s Macro Profile
Macro Profile
2
→ The Macro Adjusted Financial Profile caa2 is sensitive to a
caa1 deterioration, but no sensitive to improvement of the Weighted
Financial Profile Macro Profile
0
→ Business development bank is not subject to
qualitative adjustments.
Qualitative Adjustments
Assigned
Macro Financial BCA Watch
Diversification
Bank
Geographical
Complexity &
Strategy, risk
Governance
Business &
Profile Less- Core Profile /Recomme Status
appetite &
PL % Net
Opacity
Initial Not- TCE % Initial Not- Initial Not- stable Initial Not- Banking Initial Not- ndation
Gross Assigned Assigned Income Assigned Assigned Assigned
Score ching RWA Score ching Score ching Funds % Score ching Liquidity Score ching
Loans % TA
TBA % TBA
1 2 3
Methodology steps
Loss Given
Bank specific
Deposit Rating: 0 3 B1
Assumptions
Supporting authority Uzbekistan
Support
provider Creditworthiness of support provider Ba3
Dependence Very High
4
Affiliate Support 0 → Business development bank does not benefit from affiliate
support.
Adjusted BCA caa1 → In the absence of affiliate support Adjusted BCA is same as assigned BCA.
5 CR Assessment: +1
Loss Given Failure CR Rating: +1
Deposits: 0
6 CR Assessment: +2
Government Support CR Rating: +2 → There is a very high likelihood of government support for BDB's deposits. This assumption results in
Deposits: +3 a three-notches uplift of the bank's long-term deposit ratings of B1 from its BCA of caa1.
CR Assessment: B1(cr)
Final Credit CR Ratings: B1 → The stable outlook on BDB's B1 long-term bank deposit ratings reflects persistent risks related to the
Ratings Deposits: B1, Stable performance of its loan portfolio and its profitability, which are however balanced by regular equity
injections by the government, which mitigate these risks.
Business
caa1 0 caa1 1 b3 1 b3 (cr) 0 caa1 - - 2 B1 2 B1(cr) 3 B1 - -
development bank
JSCB
b3 0 b3 1 b2 1 b2 (cr) 0 b3 - - 2 Ba3 2 Ba3(cr) 3 Ba3 - -
Microcreditbank
Development Bank
caa1 0 caa1 1 b3 1 b3 (cr) - - 0 caa1 2 B1 2 B1(cr) - - 3 B1
of Mongolia LLC
Banque du Caire
caa1 0 caa1 1 b3 1 b3 (cr) 0 caa1 - - 0 B3 0 B3(cr) 0 Caa1 - -
SAE
Co-operative Bank
caa1 0 caa1 1 b3 1 b3 (cr) 0 caa1 - - 0 B3 0 B3(cr) 0 Caa1 - -
of Kenya Limited
All ratings shown in the table are foreign currency ratings, unless specified differently
Budget
Water management Human capital Education Organizational structure
management
E
Methodologies
→ Carbon transition → Carbon transition → Methodology Scorecard /
CIS-1
→ Physical climate risks → Physical climate risks Model
→ Water management → Water management Environmental IPS
ENVIRONMENTAL →
→
Waste and pollution
Natural capital
→
→
Waste and pollution
Natural capital
→ Other Considerations
CIS-2
S
→ Customer relations → Customer relations
→
→
Human capital
Demographic and societal
→
→
Human capital
Demographic and societal
Social IPS
CIS-3
trends trends
→ Health and safety → Health and safety
SOCIAL → Responsible production → Responsible production
CIS-4
→ Financial strategy and risk
G
management ESG Cross Sector
→ Management credibility and
Methodology
→
track record
Organizational structure
Governance IPS
CIS-5
→ Compliance and reporting
GOVERNANCE → Board structure and policies
INPUT OUTPUT
IPSs are issuer-specific scores that assess exposure to the Output of the credit rating process that
ESG risk categories from a credit perspective communicates the impact of ESG
considerations on the rating of an issuer or
transaction.
→ Indicates the extent to which the credit rating would have been → Scores are global and comparable across sectors
different in the absence of ESG issues → ncorporate management’s action mitigants
→ Places ESG in the context of other rating considerations → E-1, S-1 or G-1 assigned only when considerations have material
→ CIS-1 assigned only if the credit rating is better because of ESG credit benefits
factors
Scoring scale: 5 4 3 2 1
G-2 Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 2 typically have exposure to G considerations that, in the context of their sector, positions them as
average, and the exposure is overall neither credit-positive nor negative.
E-3 Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 3 typically have moderate credit exposures to E or S risks. These issuers may demonstrate some
mitigants specifically related to the identified E or S risks, but they are not sufficiently material to fully offset the risks.
S-3
Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 3 typically have moderate credit exposure to G risks that, in the context of the sector, positions
G-3 them below average.
E-4 Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 4 typically have high credit exposures to E or S risks. These issuers may demonstrate some
mitigants specifically tied to the E or S risks identified, but they generally have limited effect on the risks.
S-4
Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 4 typically have high credit exposure to G risks that, in the context of their sector, positions them
G-4 more weakly than issuers with an issuer profile score of 3.
E-5 Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 5 typically have very high credit exposures to E or S risks. While these issuers or transactions may
demonstrate some mitigants specifically related to the identified E or S risks, they are not meaningful relative to the magnitude of the risks.
S-5
Issuers or transactions with an issuer profile score of 5 typically have very high credit exposure to G risks that in the context of their sector, positions
G-5 them more weakly than issuers with an issuer profile score of 4.
Source: Moody’s Ratings
CIS-1 ESG Considerations have a positive impact on the current rating which is higher than it would have been in
the absence of ESG considerations.
ESG considerations have a limited impact on the current rating, with potential for greater negative impact
CIS-3 over time.
ESG considerations have a discernible impact on the current rating, which is lower than it would have been
CIS-4 if ESG risks did not exist. The negative impact of ESG considerations on the rating is higher than for an
issuer scored CIS-3.
ESG considerations have a pronounced impact on the current rating, which is lower than it would have
CIS-5 been if ESG risks did not exist. The negative impact of ESG considerations on the rating is higher than for
an issuer scored CIS-4.
Commentary:
Business development bank BDB ’s C S-3 indicates that ESG considerations have a limited impact on the current credit
rating with potential for greater negative impact over time reflecting high governance risks related to its ownership by the
government. The credit impact of environmental and social risk factors on the bank's ratings is limited.
Asset Risk Macro Profile: Weak - Financial Ratio STEP 1 STEP 2 Initial Subfactor Score
Ratio Asset Risk Factor: Problem Loans / Gross Loans 17.5% VW+ W- caa2
1
VS+ VS VS- S+ S S- M+ M M- W+ W W- VW+ VW VW-
STEP 1 Asset Risk Factor 0.5%- 0.75%- 1%- 1.5%- 2%- 3%- 4%- 5%- 6%- 8%- 10%- 15%- 20%-
≤05 > 25%
Factor Problem Loans / Gross Loans 0.75% 1% 1.5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 15% 20% 25%
1
VS+ VS VS- S+ S S- M+ M M- W+ W W- VW+ VW VW-
Very Strong + (VS+) aaa aaa aa1 aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a3 baa1 baa2 ba1 ba3 b2 caa1 caa3
Very Strong (VS) aaa aa1 aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa3 ba1 ba3 b2 caa1 caa3
Very Strong - (VS-) aa1 aa1 aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba2 b1 b2 caa1 caa3
STEP 2 Strong + (S+) aa1 aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 ba1 ba2 b1 b3 caa1 caa3
Strong (S) aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba3 b1 b3 caa1 caa3
MACRO PROFILE
Deriving Initial Strong - (S-) aa3 aa3 a1 a2 a3 a3 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b2 b3 caa2 caa3
Subfactor Moderate + (M+) a1 a1 a2 a3 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 caa2 caa3
Moderate (M) a2 a2 a3 baa1 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b1 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3
Score Moderate - (M-) a3 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3
Weak + (W+) baa1 baa2 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba2 ba3 b1 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa2 caa3
2Weak (W) baa2 baa3 ba1 ba1 ba2 ba3 ba3 b1 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa3
Weak - (W-) baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 ba3 b1 b2 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa3
Very Weak + (VW+) ba1 ba3 ba3 b1 b2 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa3 caa3
Very Weak (VW) ba3 b1 b2 b3 b3 caa1 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa3 caa3 caa3
Very Weak - (VW-) b1 b3 caa1 caa1 caa2 caa2 caa2 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3 caa3
Source: Moody’s Ratings
Very Strong + (VS+) aaa aaa aa1 aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a3 baa1 baa2 ba1 ba3 b2 caa1 caa3
Very Strong (VS) aaa aa1 aa1 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa3 ba1 ba3 b2 caa1 caa3
Very Strong - (VS-) aa1 aa1 aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba2 b1 b2 caa1 caa3
Strong + (S+) aa1 aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 ba1 ba2 b1 b3 caa1 caa3
Strong (S) aa2 aa2 aa3 a1 a2 a3 baa1 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba3 b1 b3 caa1 caa3
Strong - (S-) aa3 aa3 a1 a2 a3 a3 baa2 baa3 ba1 ba2 ba3 b2 b3 caa2 caa3
Macro Profile
WORST
solvency that disadvantage bondholders. Most bank failures stem from credit risk, since even a small deterioration in the value of an institution’s assets
OF
can have a significant effect on its solvency given the bank’s typically high balance sheet leverage
SOLVENCY (65% weight)
The combination of a bank’s
AVAILABLE
risk, and its capacity to absorb
LATEST
CAPITAL (25% weight) is measured by Tangible Common Equity / Risk-weighted Assets. Good capital levels are important since the greater the risk of
any resultant losses from capital
and earnings
unexpected losses, the more capital a bank needs to hold to protect bondholders and maintain the creditor confidence necessary to fund itself.
WORST
PROFITABILITY (15% weight) as measured by et ncome Total Assets, helps determine an institution’s ability to generate capital, and is a
OF
complementary indicator of its ability to absorb losses and recover from shocks.
YEAR-END
LIQUIDITY (35% weight) FUNDING STRUCTURE (20% weight) as measured by Less-Stable Funds Tangible Banking Assets, has a strong bearing on the bank’s probability
LATEST
The combination of the or requiring assistance. If a bank makes significant use of confidence-sensitive, short-term funding sources with higher flight risk, it is more likely to
mismatch between the maturity suffer loss of funding sources during periods of stress.
of a bank’s assets and its
liabilities, the reliability of
YEAR-END
funding, and its capacity to LIQUID RESOURCES (15% weight) as measured by Core Banking iquidity Tangible Banking Assets, is an indicator of a bank’s ability to respond to
LATEST
meet cash outflows from liquid the changing behavior of its funding counterparts, which is stronger if a bank has a stock of high-quality liquid assets that it can readily sell, pledge, or
reserves place with central banks under standard terms to obtain cash.
The ratios necessarily fluctuate over time, and their significance varies. For the problem loan ratio and profitability ratio, we review the latest three year-end ratios as well as the most recent
Ratio rationale
intra-year ratio where applicable, and base our starting point ratio on the weaker of the average of this period and the latest reported figure. This reduces the inherent cyclicality of these ratios
while ensuring that we capture sudden deterioration. Improvements thereby have a slower impact, which reflects our view that they should be proven over time. For the capital ratio, we use
the latest provided figure. For the funding structure and liquid resources ratio, we use the latest year-end values for the denominator and multi-period averages as per local regulatory
requirements for the calculation of the Liquidity Coverage Ratios. Due to national differences in the implementation and the phase-in period of the Basel III Accord, we use the Tangible
Common Equity, TCE, as the numerator for our capital ratio since it is close to the narrowest and now most prevalent regulatory measure of capital, Common Equity Tier 1. We focus on pure
common equity and exclude “hybrid” instruments TC also caps the contribution of deferred tax assets at 0 of the total and excludes minority interest.
Counterparty Risk Rating COUNTERPARTY RISK RATING: CRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honor the uncollateralized portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities (CRR
liabilities) and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honored.
DEPOSIT RATINGS Our Long-Term Bank Deposit Rating is an expected loss measure, which considers both the likelihood of default and severity of loss, and our
opinion of a bank’s ability to repay its foreign and or domestic currency deposit obligations with an original maturity of one year of more. It takes intrinsic strength (the
Deposits
BCA) as a starting point and further incorporates our view of the expected financial loss in the case of a default (our Loss Given Failure or LGF analysis) as well as any
government support that may be provided. Applies to the most junior class of uninsured deposits, such as large corporate or institutional deposits, including term
deposits with maturities of over one year. Short-term ratings are used for deposits of less than 13 months original maturity and are mapped from the LT deposit rating in
four rating categories (Prime-1, Prime-2, Prime-3, Not Prime).
Expected loss
measure
Senior unsecured LONG-TERM SENIOR UNSECURED DEBT RATING / ISSUER RATING It is an expected loss measure that expresses our opinion of the ability of debt-issuing banks to
honour their current and future senior unsecured debt and debt-like obligations with an original maturity of one-year or more. As with Deposit Ratings it takes intrinsic
strength as a starting point and further incorporates our view of the expected financial loss in the case of a default as well as any government support that may be
provided. If the rated entity has no senior debt outstanding, we may assign an Issuer Rating as a placeholder.
SHORT-TERM DEBT Short-term debt ratings are used for debt of less than 13 months original maturity, including commercial paper, and are an expected loss measure.
These are mapped from the long-term debt rating in four categories.
Subordinated
JUNIOR SECURITIES Like deposits and senior debt, these securities are rated as part of our LGF post-failure analysis. We may remove additional notches from the
instrument rating to reflect the risk that the instruments could suffer losses before an institution reaches the point of failure (e.g. coupon suspension or principal is
AT1 rating / Hybrid rating converted to equity or written down, in the case of non-viability or high trigger contingent capital securities).
BASELINE CREDIT ASSESSMENT (BCA) The BCA expresses the likelihood of an issuer defaulting on one or more of its debt obligations, or requiring financial or other
Probability of support to avoid such a default, and does not provide an opinion on the severity of any loss. It is our opinion of a debt issuer’s standalone intrinsic strength, without any
Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) default external support. To determine our Adjusted BCA we incorporate into the BCA our assessment of the likelihood of support for the issuer from affiliates ( a parent, group,
measure or cooperative structure).
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