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NOPLAT Margin Analysis and Insights

The document presents key business metrics and assumptions for Team X over time. It shows historical and projected trends for revenue growth, EBITDA margin, ROIC, NOPLAT margin, and other metrics. Sensitivity analysis is also presented on cost of capital and other assumptions, showing the impact of changes to variables like beta, market risk premium, and long-term growth rates.

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Peter Li
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13 views7 pages

NOPLAT Margin Analysis and Insights

The document presents key business metrics and assumptions for Team X over time. It shows historical and projected trends for revenue growth, EBITDA margin, ROIC, NOPLAT margin, and other metrics. Sensitivity analysis is also presented on cost of capital and other assumptions, showing the impact of changes to variables like beta, market risk premium, and long-term growth rates.

Uploaded by

Peter Li
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Team

TWE

Appendix 1: Key Business Drivers




Revenue Growth

8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

-4.00%

-6.00%

-8.00%

-10.00%
-12.00%
-14.00%


EBITDA Margin

25.00%

20.00%
15.00%

10.00%
5.00%

0.00%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018


Appendix 2: Revenue Assumptions

Revenue Assumptions

ROIC
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

NOPLAT Margin
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

GDP
ANZ

of Net Sales Revenue 32.87% 32.87% 32.87% 32.87% 32.87% 32.87%


%

Americas

% of Net Sales Revenue

45.20%

45.22%

43.98%

42.73%

41.48%

40.24%

Asia

% of Net Sales Revenue

4.66%

3.93%

5.21%

6.50%

7.78%

9.06%

EMEA

% of Net Sales Revenue

17.28%

17.98%

17.94%

17.91%

17.87%

17.83%

Real GDP Growth Rates

Asia

6.30% 7.20% 7.10% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%

Australia

1.00%

3.70%

4.30%

3.20%

3.20%

3.20%

EMEA

2.10%

1.70%

1.80%

2.40%

2.40%

2.40%

Americas

2.60%

3.30%

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%


Value weighted real GDP
growth rate


2.16%


3.30%


3.43%


3.22%


3.27%

13

3.32%

Team X


Inflation


Asia

TWE

4.90% 4.00% 3.60% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%

Australia

3.30%

2.90%

3.10%

2.80%

2.80%

2.80%

EMEA

2.70%

1.80%

1.80%

2.80%

2.80%

2.80%

Americas

2.70%

1.50%

2.10%

2.90%

2.90%

2.90%


Value weighted inflation
rate


3.00%


2.11%


2.45%


2.89%


2.90%

2.90%


Value weighted nominal
GDP growth rate


5.16%


5.41%


5.88%


6.11%


6.17%

6.22%


Long-term Predicted
Growth

ANZ

Predicted Growth

4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%

Americas

Predicted Growth

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

6.50%

Asia

Predicted Growth

8.50%

8.50%

8.50%

8.50%

8.50%

EMEA

Predicted Growth

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%


Value weighted Long
Term Growth Rate

After Eliminating GDP

5.38%

5.41%

5.44%

5.46%

5.49%

-0.03%

-0.47%

-0.67%

-0.70%

-0.74%


Appendix 3: Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis: Cost of Capital

Central

Beta

Central/Changes

Value

$3.54


0.5

Low


High

Market Risk Premium

5%

Low


High
Target Capital Structure

Low Gearing D/V



5.84%

% change

WACC

7.22%


$4.62

0.4

$4.00

13%

6.77%

0.6

$3.14

-11%

7.71%

7%

0.7

$2.83

-20%

8.18%

13%

31%

0.3

% change

6.30%

-13%
-6%

2%


$5.45

4%

$4.02

14%

6.76%

-6%

6%

$3.15

-11%

7.69%

6%

8%

$2.58

-27%

8.63%

19%

54%


5.82%

-19%

3%


$3.48

5%

$3.52

-0.51%

7.24%

0.28%

7%

$3.56

0.72%

7.20%

-0.38%

-1.72%


7.29%

0.94%

14


High


Long-Term
Growth
Rate

$3.54

5%


$3.62

6%

$3.58

1.17%

7.18%

-0.62%

8%

$3.50

-0.94%

7.26%

0.51%

9%

$3.47

-1.96%

7.30%

1.08%

6.43%

2.25%


% change

ROIC

% change

Value

Central/
Changes


Central

-1.05%

7.14%

5.44%

-1.19%

14.7%


% Change

7.15%

% Change

Low

1.98%

EBITDA
Margin

7.10%

Sensitivity Analysis: Key Inputs

$3.61

% change

Cost of Debt

9%

Revenue
Growth

High Gearing D/V

TWE

NOPLAT
Margin

Team X

7.36%

3.01%
-0.3%

$3.32

-6.14%

6.83%

6.16%

5.44%

0%

14.7%

0%

7.36%

0%

-0.1%

$3.46

-2.14%

6.57%

2.06%

5.44%

0%

14.7%

0%

7.36%

0%

+0.1%

$3.62

2.25%

6.30%

-2.08%

5.44%

0%

14.7%

0%

7.36%

0%

+0.3%

$3.79

7.08%

6.03%

-6.27%

5.44%

0%

14.7%

0%

7.36%

0%


Nominal
GDP
Growth

5.96%
-1% $3.37 -4.63% 6.53%

+1%

$3.71

4.80%

1.46% 4.44% -18% 14.7%

6.34%

-1.42%

6.44%

18%

14.7%

0% 7.36%

0%

0%

0%

7.36%


Predicted
Growth
Rate

-0.52%
-0.5% $3.45 -2.33% 6.48%

+0.5%

$3.62

2.38%

0.73% 4.94%

6.39%

-0.72%

5.94%

-9% 14.7%
9%

14.7%

0% 7.36%

0%

0%

0%

7.36%


Operating
Costs/
Revenue

83.73%
-2% $4.59 29.9% 5.97%

-7.23% 5.44%

0% 16.7% 13.6% 8.76%

19%

-1%

$4.07

14.9%

6.17%

-4.06%

5.44%

0%

15.7%

+1%

$3.01

-14.9%

6.78%

5.40%

5.44%

0%

+2%

$2.48

-29.9%

7.26%

12.9%

5.44%

0%

6.8%

8.06%

9.5%

13.7%

-6.8%

6.66%

-9.5%

12.7%

-13.6%

5.96%

-19%


CAPEX/
Revenue


4.93%

-1% $4.29 21.3% 5.35%


+1%

$2.78

-21.3%

-16.8% 5.44%

8.06%

25.2%

5.44%

0% 14.7%

0% 7.36%

0%

0%

0%

0%

14.7%

7.36%


Working

1.92%

15

Team X

TWE

Capital/
Revenue

-0.5%

$3.91

10.7%

5.84%

-9.2%

5.44%

0%

14.7%

0%

7.36%

0%

+0.5%

$3.16

-10.7%

7.15%

11.2%

5.44%

0%

14.7%

0%

7.36%

0%


Depreciatio
n/Revenue


4.19%

-1% $3.31 -6.40% 7.50%



+1%

$3.76

6.40%

5.49%

16.5% 5.44%
-14.6%

5.44%

0% 14.7%

0% 8.06%

0%

0%

14.7%

6.66%

9.5%
-9.5%



Appendix 4: Scenario 1: Taxes

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Central

Revenue Growth Rate

-5.68%

5.38%

5.41%

5.44%

5.46%

Revenue

1796.6

1893.3

1995.7

2104.2

2219.1

1a)

Revenue Growth Rate

-5.68%

3.18%

5.41%

5.44%

5.46%

5.49%

Revenue

1796.6

1853.8

1954.0

2060.2

2172.8

2292.0

Revenue Growth Rate

-5.68%

3.18%

4.41%

4.44%

4.46%

Revenue

1796.6

1853.8

1935.5

2021.3

2111.5

Revenue Growth Rate

-5.68%

3.18%

4.41%

4.94%

5.46%

Revenue

1796.6

1853.8

1935.5

2031.0

2141.9

2259.5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

1b)
1c)


Appendix 5: Scenario 2: Economic Conditions

2016 Value per share


5.49%

$3.54

2340.9
$3.46

4.49%

$3.33

2206.3

5.49%

$3.41

2016

% of Net Sales Revenue

ANZ

32.87% 32.87% 32.87% 32.87% 32.87% 32.87%

Americas

45.20%

45.22%

43.98%

42.73%

41.48%

40.24%

4.66%

3.93%

5.21%

6.50%

7.78%

9.06%

Asia

EMEA

17.28%

17.98%

17.94%

17.91%

17.87%

17.83%

Central

Real GDP Growth Rates


Asia

6.30% 7.20% 7.10% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%

Australia

1.00%

3.70%

4.30%

3.20%

3.20%

3.20%

EMEA

2.10%

1.70%

1.80%

2.40%

2.40%

2.40%

Americas

2.60%

3.30%

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%

3.00%


Value weighted real GDP
growth rate


2.16%


3.30%


3.43%


3.22%


3.27%

3.32%


Inflation



Value weighted inflation rate

Asia

4.90% 4.00% 3.60% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%

Australia

3.30%

2.90%

3.10%

2.80%

2.80%

2.80%

EMEA

2.70%

1.80%

1.80%

2.80%

2.80%

2.80%

Americas

2.70%

1.50%

2.10%

2.90%

2.90%

2.90%

3.00% 2.11% 2.45% 2.89% 2.90% 2.90%

16

Team X


Scenario 2a) Economic Boom

Real GDP Growth Rates


Asia

TWE

6.30% 7.20% 7.90% 7.45% 7.20% 7.10%

Australia

1.00%

3.75%

4.60%

3.65%

3.30%

3.22%

EMEA

2.10%

2.22%

2.75%

2.48%

2.45%

2.43%

Americas

2.60%

3.30%

3.70%

3.50%

3.25%

3.10%


Value weighted real GDP
growth rate

Inflation


2.16%



Asia


3.41%


4.04%


3.62%


3.43%

3.38%

4.90% 5.20% 5.50% 5.52% 5.40% 5.30%

Australia

3.30%

4.60%

4.75%

4.77%

4.50%

4.34%

EMEA

2.70%

2.80%

3.20%

3.25%

3.11%

3.08%

Americas

2.70%

2.95%

3.10%

3.11%

3.03%

3.00%



Value
weighted inflation rate


Scenario 2b) Economic
Recession

Real GDP Growth Rates

Asia




Value weighted real GDP
growth rate

Inflation

3.00% 3.55% 3.79% 3.84% 3.71% 3.66%


6.30% 4.70% 2.95% 3.10% 4.67% 6.35%

Australia

1.00%

0.80%

0.50%

0.74%

1.20%

2.40%

EMEA

2.10%

1.00%

-1.75%

-0.67%

1.34%

2.10%

Americas

2.60%

1.20%

0.80%

0.94%

1.40%

2.55%


2.16%



Asia


1.17%


0.36%


0.73%


1.58%

2.76%

4.90% 3.80% 3.20% 3.17% 3.30% 3.50%

Australia

3.30%

2.90%

2.35%

2.36%

2.50%

2.75%

EMEA

2.70%

1.90%

1.20%

1.18%

1.30%

1.50%

Americas

2.70%

2.00%

1.93%

1.93%

2.10%

2.20%


Value weighted inflation rate

3.00% 2.35% 2.00% 2.02% 2.18% 2.37%




Market Risk Premium
Risk free
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt
Beta
WACC

Central
5%
4.88%
7.36%
7.10%
0.5
7.2240%

Recession Boom
6%
4%
4.40%
5.40%
7.38%
7.39%
7.10%
7.10%
0.5
0.5
7.2387%
7.2458%

17

Team X

TWE

Appendix 6: Scenario 3


Value
Per
Share

% Change


Central
Revenue
Growth
rates

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Terminal
Growth

5.38%

5.41%

5.44%

5.46%

5.49%

$3.54

3A)

Change

-0.3%

-0.5%

-0.6%

-0.65%

-0.68%

-0.1%

$3.32

-6.21%

3B)

Change

-0.3%

-0.5%

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.1%

$3.54

0%

3C)

Change

-0.3%

-0.5%

0%

+0.3%

+0.4%

+0.15%

$3.60

+1.69%









Appendix 7: P/E Ratio

ANZ

Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd. ([Link])

Price at 30th Calculated


Forward EPS June 2010
P/E ratio

Australian Vintage Ltd. ([Link])


Foster's Group Ltd. ([Link])

Delegat's Group Ltd. ([Link])


Constellation Brands, Inc.
(NYSE:STZ)
Brown-Forman Corporation
(NYSE:BF-B)


US


Europe

Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE.L)


Pernod Ricard NV ([Link])

Remy Cointreau (Paris: [Link])


Anhui Golden Seedwinery Co., Ltd.
([Link])
Dynasty Fine Wines Group Ltd.
([Link])


Asia

United Spirits Ltd ([Link])


Average

Industry
P/E

Relative
P/E ratio

0.7185

11.42

15.89

17.32

92%

0.099

0.28

2.83

17.32

16%

0.2644

5.15

19.48

17.32

112%

0.22

1.93

8.77

17.32

51%

2.05

20.82

10.16

17.32

59%

3.67

74.36

20.26

17.32

117%

88.58

1273

14.37

17.32

83%

4.56

67.97

14.91

17.32

86%

2.8

58.04

20.73

17.32

120%

0.54

16.75

31.02

17.32

179%

0.12

2.29

19.08

17.32

110%

41.47

976.35

23.54

17.32

136%

Average ex AVG & Anhui

16.75
16.72

Average ex AVG, DGL, STZ, Anhui

18.53

96.53%
107.01%

96.73%

18

Team X

TWE

Appendix 8: EBITDA Multiple Valuation


Low

EBITDA Multiple
EBITDA 2012 for TWE
EBITDA Multiple * EBITDA
Other Asset

Base

High

8.59
265.62

11.31
265.62

14.38
265.62

2281.06

3004.85

3820.35

2281.06

3004.85

3820.35

136.5

136.5

136.5

2144.56

2868.35

3683.85

Shares Outstanding

647.2

647.2

647.2

TWE MV Equity per Share

$3.31

$4.43

$5.69

Enterprise Value
Interest Bearing Debt (Short and Long term)
Equity Value




Appendix 9: Price to Asset (Price to Book) Ratio
P/BV (inc.
intangibles)

BV of Equity (inc.
intangibles)

Number of shares
outstanding
BV per share

Imputed Price
for TWE

Australian Vintage Ltd. ([Link])

0.149

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$0.66

Delegat's Group Ltd. ([Link])

1.164

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$5.17

Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ)

1.652

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$7.34

Pernod Ricard NV ([Link])

1.899

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$8.44

Remy Cointreau (Paris: [Link])

2.700

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$12.00

Dynasty Fine Wines Group Ltd. ([Link])

2.251

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$10.01

Average

1.636

2876800000

647230000

4.444787788

$7.27

19

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