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Stabilization Wedges
Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies
Roberta Hotinski RECS, UAB June 6, 2011
Fossil Fuel Burning
8
billion tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
4 billion tons added
every year
billion tons carbon
800
Ocean
Land Biosphere (net)
4 billion tons go out
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ATMOSPHERE
Doubled CO2 Today Pre-Industrial Glacial
Billions of tons of carbon
1200 800 600 400
(570)
(380) (285) (190)
billions of tons carbon
( ppm )
Why Wedges?
Graphic courtesy of IPCC
Predicted global temperature change of 1.4 - 5.8C by 2100
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Historical Emissions
16
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Historical emissions
0 1950
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical emissions
Flat path
1.6
0 1950
2000
2050
2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.
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The Stabilization Triangle
16
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Easier CO2 target ~850 ppm
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical emissions
Flat path
To u
1.6
gh ~5 er C 00 O pp 2 tar m ge t
0 1950
2000
2050
2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.
Stabilization Wedges
16
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
16 GtC/y
Eight wedges
Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today
Historical emissions
Flat path
1.6
0 1950
2000
2050
2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are 1 tC/yr.
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Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005
World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2
AVERAGE TODAY 1STABILIZATION
Source: IEA WEO 2007
What is a Wedge ?
A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr avoided within 50 years
1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. A solution to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
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$100/tC
Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable scale-up of most of the wedges. (PV is an exception.)
Form of Energy
Natural gas Crude oil Coal Gasoline Electricity from coal Electricity from natural gas
Equivalent to $100/tC
$1.50/1000 scf $12/barrel $65/U.S. ton 25/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 51/gallon) 2.2/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.9 /kWh) 1.0/kWh
$100/tC was approximately the EU trading price for carbon (~$30/ton CO2) in September 2008 (Now ~$18) A wedge is 2.5 trillion dollars ($100 billion/yr) at $100/tC.
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency & Conservation
Fossil Fuel-Based Strategies
Stabilization Stabilization Triangle
2008 2058
Nuclear Power
Renewables & Biostorage
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WedgeUse the Wedges Table to compare strategies: Table
= Electricity Production,
Strategy 1. Efficiency Transport Sector
=Heating and Direct Fuel Use,
Description
=Transportation,
Cost $
= Biostorage
Challenges Car size & power
1 wedge could come from doubling the efficiency of the all worlds cars from 30 to 60 mpg cutting miles traveled by all passenger vehicles in half using best available technology in all new and existing buildings raising plant efficiency from 40% to 60% injecting a volume of CO2 every year equal to the volume of oil extracted
Increase automobile fuel efficiency (2 billion cars projected in 2050) Reduce miles traveled by passenger and/or freight vehicles Increase insulation, furnace and lighting efficiency Increase efficiency of power generation CO2 from fossil fuel power plants captured, then stored underground (700 large coal plants or 1400 natural gas plants) Hydrogen fuel from fossil sources with CCS displaces hydrocarbon fuels Capture and store CO2 emitted during synfuels production from coal Replacing coal-burning electric plants with natural gas plants (1400 1 GW coal plants) Displace coal-burning electric plants with nuclear plants (2 x current capacity) Wind displaces coal-based electricity (30 x current capacity) Solar PV displaces coal-based electricity (700 x current capacity) Produce hydrogen with wind electricity Biomass fuels from plantations
2.
Conservation - Transport Efficiency Buildings Efficiency Electricity
Increased public transport, urban design House size, consumer demand for appliances Increased plant costs Possibility of CO2 leakage
3.
4.
5.
CCS Electricity
$$
6.
CCS Hydrogen
producing hydrogen at 10 times the current rate using CCS at 180 large synfuels plants using an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today ~3 times the effort France put into expanding nuclear power in the 1980s, sustained for 50 years using area equal to ~3% of U.S. land area for wind farms .. using the equivalent of a 100 x 200 km PV array powering half the worlds cars predicted for 2050 with hydrogen scaling up world ethanol
$$$
New infrastructure needed, hydrogen safety issues Emissions still only break even with gasoline Natural gas availability Weapons proliferation, nuclear waste, local opposition Not In My Back Yard (NIMBY)
7. 8.
CCS Synfuels Fuel Switching Electricity Nuclear Electricity
$$
9.
$$
10. Wind Electricity 11. Solar Electricity 12. Wind Hydrogen 13. Biofuels
$$
$$$
PV cell materials
$$ $$
NIMBY, Hydrogen infrastructure, safety Biodiversity,
Carbon Capture & Storage
Implement CCS at 800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or 180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today s capacity of hydrogen plants
Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey
There are currently three large-scale storage projects that each inject ~1 million tons of CO2 per year by 2055 need 3500. Requires about 100 times the amount of CO2 currently injected annually for EOR (most in the U.S.)
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Fuel Switching
Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).
A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today
A wedge worth of natural gas requires ~190 bscfd U.S. consumption ~65 bscfd U.S. currently imports ~ 12 bscfd Domestic shale gas production ~12 bscfd
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Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA
Efficiency
Produce today s electric capacity with double today s efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world s cars or halve miles traveled
There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today
Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings
Replacing all the world s incandescent bulbs with CFL s would provide 1/4 of one wedge
Five
ways
to
cut
1
tonC/yr
by
half
1
ton
carbon/yr
a)
Drive
b)
Drive
c)
Fly
d)
Heat
home
e)
Appliances
10,000
mi/yr
30
mpg
10,000
mi/yr,
30
mpg
10,000
miles/yr
Cut
in
half
60
mpg
5,000
miles/yr
5,000
miles/yr
How?
Lighter,
less
power(?)
Live
closer
to
work
Video-conference
Nat.
gas,
av.
house,
av.
Insulate,
double-pane
windows,
fewer
climate
leaks,
condensing
furnace,
300
kWh/month
when
Permanently
replace
twenty
60W
all-coal
power
incandescent
bulbs,
lit
6
hrs/day,
with
(600
kWh/month,
NJ)
compact
uorescents.
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Nuclear Electricity
Triple the world s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055
Graphic courtesy of NRC
The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.
104 of world s 435 nuclear electric plants are in the United States
Wind Electricity
Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coalbased electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel
Photo courtesy of DOE
A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 10 Current U.S. capacity about 35,000 MW
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Solar Electricity
Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054
Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity by 100 times US PV potential estimated to be ~500 GW
(Navigant Consulting and Clean Power Research, Study for the Energy Foundation)
Biofuels
Scale up current global ethanol production by 12 times
Photo courtesy of NREL
Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops Need ~1000 billion liters ethanol per year for a wedge U.S. currently producing ~40 billion liters/yr
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Natural Sinks
Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha)
Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland U.S. forest sequestration potential estimated at 100-200 million tons C/yr
(Birdsey et al.)
Photo courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO
Take Home Messages
To avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy lowcarbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions No one technology can do the whole job a variety of strategies will be needed Every wedge has associated impacts and costs
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The Wedges Game
What are the rules?
You
can
use
strategies
more
than
once
(except
Transport
Eciency)
There
is
no
right
answer,
but
you
need
to
make
a
compelling
argument
for
your
porVolio
Your
case
should
address
environmental,
poliWcal,
and
social
implicaWons
of
wedges,
as
well
as
challenges
for
implementaWon
Cuts
should
not
all
come
from
one
sector
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Carbon Emissions by Energy Sector
Need 8 wedges...
Electricity
Heat
... not all cuts can come from one sector!
5
Transportation
5
Biostorage wedges do not count against an energy sector
Feel
free
to
add
strategies,
e.g.
Industrial
energy
eciency
"Upstream"
investment
Concentrated
solar
power
Methane
mi;ga;on
Popula;on
Hydropower
Cellulosic
biofuels
Air/truck/shipping
transport
Tidal
and
wave
power
-
large
poten;al,
but
currently
very
expensive.
Geothermal
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From McKibben, Carbon s New Math, National Geographic, October 2007
From Socolow & Pacala, A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check, Scientific American, Sept. 2006
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BREAK
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Efficiency Transport Conservation Transport Efficiency Buildings Efficiency Electricity Production CCS Electricity CCS Hydrogen CCS Synfuels Fuel Switch Nuclear Electricity Wind Electricity Solar Electricity Wind Hydrogen Biofuels Forest Storage Soil Storage
Wedges totals (average of event)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Transport Eff. Conservation Transp. Building Eff. Electric Eff. CCS Electricity CCS Hydrogen CCS Synfuels 1 Fuel Switch Nuclear Electricity Wind Electricity Solar Wind Hydrogen Biofuels Forest/Soil Storage
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Goodbye, Annex I
AQUILA MATH: At Aquila last summer the G-8 announced two percentagereduction goals for 2050 (relative to some recent time): 50% reductions in global emissions, and 80% reductions in OECD emissions. Hardly anyone observed that these two goals require a third, because almost exactly half of global emissions today come from outside the OECD: 20% reductions in non-OECD emissions The point isn't the numbers. Rather, it is the manners. The non-OECD was told. It was not asked. The same two goals reappeared in Copenhagen.
Web
screenshot
for
wedges
NEVER
FAILS!
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For more information contact Roberta Hotinski hotinski@[Link]
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