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Probability of Rain on Wedding Day

This document provides an example problem and solution using Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of rain on Marie's wedding day given the weatherman's prediction of rain. Specifically: - The problem defines the sample space and relevant probabilities - the chance of rain, no rain, and the weatherman's accuracy. - Bayes' theorem is used to calculate the probability of rain given the prediction, which works out to 11%. - Despite the prediction of rain, there is only an 11% chance it will actually rain, so Marie likely won't get rained on at her outdoor wedding.

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6 views1 page

Probability of Rain on Wedding Day

This document provides an example problem and solution using Bayes' theorem to calculate the probability of rain on Marie's wedding day given the weatherman's prediction of rain. Specifically: - The problem defines the sample space and relevant probabilities - the chance of rain, no rain, and the weatherman's accuracy. - Bayes' theorem is used to calculate the probability of rain given the prediction, which works out to 11%. - Despite the prediction of rain, there is only an 11% chance it will actually rain, so Marie likely won't get rained on at her outdoor wedding.

Uploaded by

aten90
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Tutorial 2: Extra Examples

Example(i): :
Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has
rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow.
When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn't
rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that it will rain on the
day of Marie's wedding?

Solution: The sample space is defined by two mutually-exclusive events - it rains or it does not
rain. Additionally, a third event occurs when the weatherman predicts rain. Notation for these
events appears below.

• Event A1. It rains on Marie's wedding.


• Event A2. It does not rain on Marie's wedding
• Event B. The weatherman predicts rain.

In terms of probabilities, we know the following:

• P( A1 ) = 5/365 =0.0136985 [It rains 5 days out of the year.]


• P( A2 ) = 360/365 = 0.9863014 [It does not rain 360 days out of the year.]
• P( B | A1 ) = 0.9 [When it rains, the weatherman predicts rain 90% of the time.]
• P( B | A2 ) = 0.1 [When it does not rain, the weatherman predicts rain 10% of the time.]

We want to know P( A1 | B ), the probability it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding, given a
forecast for rain by the weatherman. The answer can be determined from Bayes' theorem, as
shown below.

P( A1 ) P( B | A1 )
P( A1 | B ) =
P( A1 ) P( B | A1 ) + P( A2 ) P( B | A2 )
P( A1 | B ) = (0.014)(0.9) / [ (0.014)(0.9) + (0.986)(0.1) ]
P( A1 | B ) = 0.111

Note the somewhat unintuitive result. Even when the weatherman predicts rain, it only rains only
about 11% of the time. Despite the weatherman's gloomy prediction, there is a good chance that
Marie will not get rained on at her wedding.

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