Operational Risk Management
Operational Risk Management
determines ways of dealing with these difficulties. Managers are responsible for the routine use of
risk management at every level of activity, starting with the planning of that activity and
continuing through its completion.
Figure 15-1 illustrates the objectives of the ORM process: protecting people, equipment and other
resources, while making the most effective use of them. Preventing accidents, and in turn
reducing losses, is an important aspect of meeting this objective. In turn, by minimizing the risk
of injury and loss, we ultimately reduce costs and stay on schedule. Thus, the fundamental goal of
risk management is to enhance the effectiveness of people and equipment by determining how
they are most efficiently to be used.
Figure 15-1: Risk management Goal
Maximize
Operational
Capability
Prevent or Mitigate
Losses
Advance or Optimize
Gain
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6. Supervise
and Review
1. Identify
the Hazards
2. Assess
the Risks
5. Implement Risk
Controls
4. Make
Control
Decisions
3. Analyze
Risk Control
Measures
Unidentified risk: That risk that has not yet been identified. Some risk is not identifiable or
measurable, but is no less important for that. Mishap investigations may reveal some previously
unidentified risks.
Total risk: The sum of identified and unidentified risk. Ideally, identified risk will comprise the
larger proportion of the two.
Acceptable risk: The part of identified risk that is allowed to persist after controls are applied.
Risk can be determined acceptable when further efforts to reduce it would cause degradation of
the probability of success of the operation, or when a point of diminishing returns has been
reached.
Unacceptable risk: That portion of identified risk that cannot be tolerated, but must be either
eliminated or controlled.
Residual risk: The portion of total risk that remains after management efforts have been
employed. Residual risk comprises acceptable risk and unidentified risk.
Figure 15-3: Types of Risk
Unacceptable/Eliminate
Acceptable
Residual
Unidentified
Unacceptable/Control
Residual Risk
Total Risk
Realistically, some risk must be accepted. How much is accepted, or not accepted, is
the prerogative of the defined decision authority. That decision is affected by many
inputs. As tradeoffs are considered and operation planning progresses, it may become
evident that some of the safety parameters are forcing higher risk to successful
operation completion. When a manager decides to accept risk, the decision should be
coordinated whenever practical with the affected personnel and organizations, and
then documented so that in the future everyone will know and understand the
elements of the decision and why it was made.
All human activity involving technical devices or complex processes entails some
element of risk.
Good analysis tilts the odds in favor of safe and successful operation.
Hazard analysis and risk assessment do not replace good judgment: they improve it.
Establishing clear objectives and parameters in risk management works better than
using a cookbook approach.
No one best solution may exist. Normally, there are a variety of alternatives, each of
which may produce a different degree of risk reduction.
Tact is essential. It is more productive to show a mission planner how he can better
manage risk than to condemn his approach as unworkable, risky, unsafe or unsound.
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15.8.2 Staff
Assess risks and develop risk reduction alternatives.
15.8.3 Supervisors
Apply the risk management process
Elevate risk issues beyond their control or authority to superiors for resolution.
15.8.4 Individuals
Understand, accept and implement risk management processes.
Maintain a constant awareness of the changing risks associated with the operation or
task.
The 5-M model, depicted in Figure 15-4, is adapted from military ORM. In this model, Man is
used to indicate the human participation in the activity, irrespective of the gender of the human
involved. Mission is the military term that corresponds to what we in civil aviation call
operation. This model provides a framework for analyzing systems and determining the
relationships between the elements that work together to perform the task.
The 5-M's are Man, Machine, Media, Management, and Mission. Man, Machine, and Media
interact to produce a successful Mission (or, sometimes, an unsuccessful one). The amount of
overlap or interaction between the individual components is a characteristic of each system and
evolves as the system develops. Management provides the procedures and rules governing the
interactions between the other elements.
When an operation is unsuccessful or an accident occurs, the system must be analyzed; the inputs
and interaction among the 5-Ms must be thoroughly reassessed. Management is often the
controlling factor in operational success or failure. The National Safety Council cites the
management processes in as many as 80 percent of reported accidents.
15.9.1 Man
The human factor is the area of greatest variability, and thus the source of the majority of risks.
Selection: The right person psychologically and physically, trained in event proficiency,
procedures and habit patterns.
Performance: Awareness, perceptions, task saturation, distraction, channeled attention, stress,
peer pressure, confidence, insight, adaptive skills, pressure/workload, fatigue (physical,
motivational, sleep deprivation, circadian rhythm).
Personal Factors: Expectancies, job satisfaction, values, families/friends, command/control,
perceived pressure (over tasking) and communication skills.
15.9.2 Media
Media are defined as external, and largely environmental and operational conditions. For
example:
Climatic: Ceiling, visibility, temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation.
Operational: Terrain, wildlife, vegetation, human made obstructions, daylight, and darkness.
Hygienic: Ventilation/air quality, noise/vibration, dust, and contaminants.
Vehicular/Pedestrian: Pavement, gravel, dirt, ice, mud, dust, snow, sand, hills, curves.
15.9.3 Machine
Hardware and software used as intended, limitations interface with man.
Design: Engineering reliability and performance, ergonomics.
Maintenance: Availability of time, tools, and parts, ease of access.
Logistics: Supply, upkeep, and repair.
Technical data: Clear, accurate, useable, and available.
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15.9.4 Management
Directs the process by defining standards, procedures, and controls. Although management
provides procedures and rules to govern interactions, it cannot completely control the system
elements. For example: weather is not under management control and individual decisions affect
personnel far more than management policies.
Standards: FAA Policy and Orders.
Procedures: Checklists, work cards, and manuals.
Controls: Crew rest, altitude/airspeed/speed limits, restrictions, training rules/limitations.
Operation. The desired outcome.
15.9.5 Mission (Operation)
Objectives: Complexity understood, well defined, obtainable. The results of the interactions of
the other -Ms (Man, Media, Machine, and Management).
Figure 15-4: The 5-M Model
Man
Msn
Mgt
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Logic Diagram
Change Analysis Tool
Opportunity Assessment
Training Realism Assessment.
ACTION 2:
LIST HAZARDS
ACTION 3:
LIST CAUSES
If time and resources permit, and additional hazard information is required, use strategic hazard
analysis tools. These are normally used for medium and long term planning, complex operations,
or operations in which the hazards are not well understood.
The first step of in-depth analysis should be to examine existing databases or available historical
and hazard information regarding the operation. Suggested tools are:
Accident analysis
Cause and effect diagrams
The following tools are particularly useful for complex, coordinated operations in which multiple
units, participants, and system components and simultaneous events are involved:
Multi-linear event sequence (MES).
Interface analysis.
Failure mode and effect analysis.
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The following tools are particularly useful for analyzing the hazards associated with physical
position and movement of assets:
Mapping tool.
Energy trace and barrier analysis.
Interface analysis.
Inspections: Inspections can consist of spot checks, walk-through, checklist inspections, site
surveys, and mandatory inspections. Utilize staff personnel to provide input beyond the standard
third-party inspection.
15.11.2 Analyze Control Measures
Hazard control is accomplished in several ways. Figure 15-5 depicts the actions necessary to
analyze the alternatives.
Figure 15-5. Analyze Control Measures Actions
ACTION 2:
DETERMINE
CONTROL
EFFECTS
ACTION 3:
PRIORITIZE RISK
CONTROL
MEASURES
ACTION 4:
IMPLEMENT
RISK
CONTROL
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The "standard order of precedence" indicates that the ideal action is to plan or design for
minimum risk with less desirable options being, in order, to add safety devices, add warning
devices, or change procedures and training. This order of preference makes perfect sense while
the system is still being designed, but once the system is fielded this approach is frequently not
cost effective. Redesigning to eliminate a risk or add safety or warning devices is both expensive
and time consuming and, until the retrofit is completes, the risk remains unabated.
Normally, revising operational or support procedures may be the lowest cost alternative. While
this does not eliminate the risk, it may significantly reduce the likelihood of an accident or the
severity of the outcome (risk) and the change can usually be implemented quickly. Even when a
redesign is planned, interim changes in procedures or maintenance requirements are usually
required. In general, these changes may be as simple as improving training, posting warnings, or
improving operator or technician qualifications. Other options include preferred parts substitutes,
instituting or changing time change requirements, or increased inspections.
The feasible alternatives must be evaluated, balancing their costs and expected benefits in terms
of operational performance, dollars and continued risk exposure during implementation. A
completed risk assessment should clearly define these tradeoffs for the decision-maker.
Some Special Considerations in Risk Control. The following factors should be considered
when applying the third step of ORM.
Try to apply risk controls only in those activities and to those who are actually at risk. Too often
risk controls are applied indiscriminately across an organization leading to wasted resources and
unnecessary irritation of busy operational personnel.
Apply redundant risk controls when practical and cost effective. If the first line of defense fails,
the back up risk control(s) may prevent loss.
Involve operational personnel, especially those likely to be directly impacted by a risk control, in
the selection and development of risk controls whenever possible. This involvement will result in
better risk controls and in general a more positive risk control process.
Benchmark (find best practices in other organizations) as extensively as possible to reduce the
cost associated with the development of risk controls. Why expend the time and resources
necessary to develop a risk control and then have to test it in application when you may be able to
find an already complete, validated approach in another organization?
Establish a timeline to guide the integration of the risk control into operational processes.
Action 4 Implement Risk Controls
Once the risk control decision is made, assets must be made available to implement the specific
controls. Part of implementing control measures is informing the personnel in the system of the
risk management process results and subsequent decisions. If there is a disagreement, then the
decision-makers should provide a rational explanation. Careful documentation of each step in the
risk management process facilitates risk communication and the rational processes behind
risk management decisions. Figure 15-6 depicts the actions necessary to complete this step.
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STEP1:
MAKEIMPLEMENTATIONCLEAR
STEP2:
ESTABLISHACCOUNTABILITY
STEP3:
PROVIDESUPPORT
To make the implementation directive clear, consider using examples, providing pictures or
charts, including job aids, etc. Provide a roadmap for implementation, a vision of the end-state,
and describe successful implementation. The control measure must be deployed in a method that
insures it will be received positively by the intended audience. This can best be achieved by
designing in user ownership.
Step 2Establish Accountability
Accountability is an important area of ORM. The accountable person is the one who makes the
decision (approves the control measures), and hence, the right person (appropriate level) must
make the decision. Also, be clear on who is responsible at the unit level for implementation of the
risk control.
Step 3Provide Support
To be successful, management must be behind the control measures put in place. Prior to
implementing a control measure, get approval at the appropriate level. Then, explore appropriate
ways to demonstrate commitment Provide the personnel and resources necessary to implement
the control measures. Design in sustainability from the beginning and be sure to deploy the
control measure along with a feedback mechanism that will provide information on whether the
control measure is achieving the intended purpose.
Common Problems in Implementing Risk Controls
A review of the historical record of risk controls indicates that many never achieve their full
potential. The primary reason for shortfalls is failure to effectively involve the personnel who are
actually impacted by a risk control. Note that virtually all these factors are driven by the failure to
properly involve personnel impacted by risk controls in the development and implementation of
the risk controls. Shortfalls include:
The following procedures provide useful guidance for shaping a risk control within an
organizational culture. Followed carefully they will significantly improve the impact and duration
of the effectiveness of risk controls.
Develop the risk control within the organizations culture. Every organization has a style or a
culture. While the culture changes over time due to the impact of managers and other
modifications, the personnel in the organization know the culture at any given time. It is
important to develop risk controls, which are consistent with this culture. For example, a rigid,
centrally directed risk control would be incompatible with an organizational culture that
emphasizes decentralized flexibility. Conversely, a decentralized risk control may not be effective
in an organization accustomed to top down direction and control. If you have any doubts about
the compatibility of a risk control within your organization, ask some personnel in the
organization what they think. People are the culture and their reactions will tell you what you
need to know.
Generate maximum possible involvement of personnel impacted by a risk control in the
implementation of the risk control. Figure 15-7 provides a tool to assist in assessing this
involvement factor. The key to making ORM a fully integrated part of the organization culture,
is to achieve user ownership in a significant percentage of all risk controls that are developed and
implemented by the personnel directly impacted by the risk..
Figure 15-7: Levels of User Involvement in Risk Controls
User Ownership: Operators are empowered to develop the risk control
STRONGER
Co-Ownership: Operators share leadership of the risk control development team
Team Member: Operators are active members of the team that developed the risk control
Input: Operators are allowed to comment and have input before the risk control is developed
Coordination: Operators are allowed to coordinate on an already developed idea
Comment and Feedback: Operators are given the opportunity to express ideas
WEAKER
Robot: Operators are ordered to apply the risk control
Develop the best possible supporting tools and guides (infrastructure) to aid operating personnel
in implementing the risk control. Examples include standard operating procedures (SOPs), model
applications, job aids, checklists, training materials, decision guides, help lines, and similar items.
The more support that is provided, the easier the task for the affected personnel. The easier the
task, the greater the chances for success.
Develop a time line for implementing the risk control. Identify major milestones, being careful to
allow reasonable timeframes and assuring that plans are compatible with the realities of
organizational resource constraints.
Procedures for Generating Management Involvement in Implementing Risk Controls
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Manager and supervisors influence behind a risk control can greatly increase its chances of
success. It is usually a good idea to signal clearly to an organization that there is interest in a risk
control if the manager in fact has some interest. Figure 15-8 illustrates actions in order of priority
that can be taken to signal leader support. Most managers are interested in risk control and are
willing to do anything reasonable to support the process. Take the time as you develop a risk
control to visualize a role for organization leaders.
STRONGER
WEAKER
To be fully effective, risk controls must be sustained. This means maintaining the responsibility
and accountability for the long haul. If the risk control has been well designed for compatibility
with the organization operation and culture this should not be difficult. Managers must maintain
accountability and yet provide a reasonable level of positive reinforcement as appropriate.
Supervise and Review
The sixth step of ORM, Supervise and Review, involves the determination of the effectiveness of
risk controls throughout the operation. This step involves three aspects. The first is monitoring the
effectiveness of risk controls. The second is determining the need for further assessment of either
all or a portion of the operation due to an unanticipated change as an example. The last is the need
to capture lessons-learned, both positive and negative, so that they may be a part of future
activities of the same or similar type. Figure 15-9 depicts the actions necessary to complete this
step.
Figure 15-9: Supervise and Review Actions
ACTIONS FOR STEP 6 - SUPERVISE AND REVIEW
ACTION 1:
SUPERVISE
ACTION 2:
REVIEW
Action 1Supervise
Monitor the operation to ensure:
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ACTION 3:
FEEDBACK
Any time the personnel, equipment, or tasking change or new operations are anticipated in an
environment not covered in the initial risk management analysis, the risks and control measures
should be reevaluated. The best tool for accomplishing this is change analysis.
Successful performance is achieved by shifting the cost versus benefit balance more in favor of
benefit through controlling risks. By using ORM whenever anything changes, we consistently
control risks, those known before an operation and those that develop during an operation. Being
proactive and addressing the risks before they get in the way of operation accomplishment saves
resources, enhances operational performance, and prevents the accident chain from ever forming.
Action 2Review
The process review must be systematic. After assets are expended to control risks, then a cost
benefit review must be accomplished to see if risk and cost are in balance. Any changes in the
system (the 5-M model, and the flow charts from the earlier steps provide convenient benchmarks
to compare the present system to the original) are recognized and appropriate risk management
controls are applied.
To accomplish an effective review, supervisors need to identify whether the actual cost is in line
with expectations. Also the supervisor will need to see what effect the control measure has had on
operational performance. It will be difficult to evaluate the control measure by itself so focus on
the aspect of operational performance the control measure was designed to improve.
A review by itself is not enough, a feedback system must be established to ensure that the
corrective or preventative action taken was effective and that any newly discovered hazards
identified during the operation are analyzed and corrective action taken. When a decision is made
to assume risk, the factors (cost versus benefit information) involved in this decision should be
recorded. When an accident or negative consequences occur, proper documentation allows for the
review of the risk decision process to see where errors might have occurred or if changes in the
procedures and tools lead to the consequences. Secondly, it is unlikely that every risk analysis
will be perfect the first time. When risk analyses contain errors of omission or commission, it is
important that those errors be identified and corrected. Without this feedback loop, we lack the
benefit of knowing if the previous forecasts were accurate, contained minor errors, or were
completely incorrect.
Measurements are necessary to ensure accurate evaluations of how effectively controls eliminated
hazards or reduced risks. After action reports, surveys, and in progress reviews provide great
starting places for measurements. To be meaningful, measurements must quantitatively or
qualitatively identify reductions of risk, improvements in operational success, or enhancement of
capabilities.
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Action 3Feedback
A review by itself is not enough: a feedback system must be established to ensure that the
corrective or preventative action taken was effective and that any newly discovered hazards
identified during the operation are analyzed and corrective action taken. Feedback informs all
involved as to how the implementation process is working, and whether or not the controls were
effective. Whenever a control process is changed without providing the reasons, co-ownership at
the lower levels is lost. The overall effectiveness of these implemented controls must also be
shared with other organizations that might have similar risks to ensure the greatest possible
number of people benefit. Feedback can be in the form of briefings, lessons learned, cross-tell
reports, benchmarking, database reports, etc. Without this feedback loop, we lack the benefit of
knowing if the previous forecasts were accurate, contained minor errors, or were completely
incorrect.
Monitoring the Effectiveness of Implementation
This aspect of the supervise and review step should be routine. Periodically monitor the progress
of implementation against the planned implementation schedule that should have been developed
during the third and fifth ORM steps. Take action as necessary to maintain the planned
implementation schedule or make adjustments as necessary.
Monitoring the Effectiveness of Risk Controls
If the risk control has been well designed, it will favorably change either physical conditions or
personnel behavior during the conduct of an operation. The challenge is to determine the extent to
which this change is taking place. If there has been no change or only minor change, the risk
control is possibly not worth the resources expended on it. It may be necessary to modify it or
even rescind it. At first thought it may seem obvious that we need only determine if the number
of accidents or other losses has decreased. This is only practical at higher levels of management.
Even at those levels of management where we have sufficient exposure to validly assess actual
losses, it may be a year or more before significant changes actually occur. This is too long to wait
to assess the effectiveness of risk controls. Too much effort may have been invested before we
can determine the impact of our proposals. We need to know how we are doing much sooner. If
we cant efficiently measure effectiveness using accident rates, how can we do it? The answer is
to directly measure the degree of risk present in the system.
Direct Measures of Behavior. When the target of a risk control is behavior, it is possible to
actually sample behavior changes in the target group. Making a number of observations of the use
of restraints before initiating the seat belt program and a similar sample after, for example, can
assess the results of an effort to get personnel to wear seat belts. The change, if any, is a direct
measure of the effectiveness of the risk control. The sample would establish the percent of
personnel using belts as a percentage of total observations. Subsequent samples would indicate
our success in sustaining the impact of the risk control.
Direct Measures of Conditions. It is possible to assess the changes in physical conditions in the
workplace. For example, the amount of foreign objects found on the flight line can be assessed
before and after a risk control initiative aimed at reducing foreign object damage.
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Measures of Attitudes. Surveys can also assess the attitudes of personnel toward risk-related
issues. While constructing survey questions is technical and must be done right, the FAA often
conducts surveys and it may be possible to integrate questions in these surveys, taking advantage
of the experts who manage these survey processes. Nevertheless, even informal surveys taken
verbally in very small organizations will quickly indicate the views of personnel.
Measures of Knowledge. Some risk controls are designed to increase knowledge of some hazard
or of hazard control procedures. A short quiz, perhaps administered during a safety meeting
before and after a training risk control is initiated.
Safety and Other Loss Control Reviews Procedures. Programmatic and procedural risk control
initiatives (such as revisions to standard operating procedures) can be assessed through various
kinds of reviews. The typical review involves a standard set of questions or statements reflecting
desirable standards of performance against which actual operating situations are compared.
15.12 Conclusion
Operational risk management provides a logical and systematic means of identifying and
controlling risk. Operational risk management is not a complex process, but does require
individuals to support and implement the basic principles on a continuing basis. Operational risk
management offers individuals and organizations a powerful tool for increasing effectiveness and
reducing accidents. The ORM process is accessible to and usable by everyone in every
conceivable setting or scenario. It ensures that all FAA personnel will have a voice in the critical
decisions that determine success or failure in all our operations and activities. Properly
implemented, ORM will always enhance performance.
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