Module 1

Introduction to Climate Change Science

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Learning Objectives
2

1. Explain the basic

concepts of climate change
science

2. Identify the
anthropogenic drivers of
climate change

By the end of the

module
participants will be
able to:

4. Analyze different climate

change scenarios and their
implications

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3. Explain observed and

projected trends in the
climate

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Overview
3

OVERVIEW

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Introduction to
Climate
Change
Science

Anthropogenic
Drivers of
Climate Change

Observed
Trends and
Impacts of
Climate Change

Projected
Trends and
Impacts of
Climate Change

Sources of
Scientific Data

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Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Section 1

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Introduction to Climate
Change Science

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

What Is Climate?
5

Weather

Climate

What is
happening in the
atmosphere at any
given time

Average weather
over longer time
frames

Source: World Meteorological Organization

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Complexity of the Global

Climate System
6

Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO

Website
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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

What Is the Greenhouse Effect?

7

Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

NASA Video on the

Greenhouse Effect
8

Video: Understand how water vapor, carbon

dioxide, and other gases cause the Earths
greenhouse effect
URL: [Link]
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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Factors Shaping the Climate

Climate Forcings
9

Source: NOAAA National Climatic Data Center

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Natural Climate Fluctuations

Example of El Nio and La Nia
10

Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Climate Change and Global

Warming
11

Global Warming

Refers to the overall

warming of the planet,
based on average
temperature over the
entire surface of the Earth

Climate Change

Refers to changes in
climate characteristics,
including temperature,
humidity, rainfall, wind,
and severe weather
events over long term
periods
Further information: WMO Website

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Observed Change in Surface

Temperature (19012012)
12

Source:
Source: IPCC 2013, p4
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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Tools to Predict and Project

Changes in the Climate
13

Climate Prediction
A climate prediction or climate forecast is an attempt to produce an estimate of
the actual evolution of the climate in the future.

Emissions Scenario
Emissions scenarios describe future releases to the atmosphere of greenhouse
gases, aerosols, and other pollutants and, along with information on land use and
land cover, provide inputs to climate models.

Climate Model
A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical
and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback
processes, and accounting for some of its known properties.

Climate Projection
A climate projection is the simulated response of the climate system to a scenario
of future emission or concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, generally
derived using climate models.
Source: IPCC 2013 and IPCC Website. Further info: WMO Website
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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Projected Change in Average

Surface Temperature
14

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6

Scenario RCP 8.5

Source: IPCC 2013, p20

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Climate Change Has an Impact on:

15

Ecosystems

Biodiversity, carbon storage,

habitats,

fresh water, health,

Human systems Agriculture,

Urban systems

Transport, buildings, lifestyle,

manufacturing, natural
Economic systems Energy,
capital industries,

Social systems
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Equity, migration, peace and

conflict,
Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Climate Change Science Allows

Us to:
16

Understand how and

why the climate is
changing
Assess how humans
are influencing the
climate
Project how the
climate may change
in the future
Support
policy/decisionmaking and changes
in behaviors

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Source: National Science Foundation

Photo Credit: Niwot Ridge lter site/John W. Marr

Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Why is Climate Change Science

Important?
17

Sound weather data and forecasts

important for:
Short-term planning
Emergency response

Climate models help to forecast long

term climate scenarios

Important input for vulnerability assessments and

adaptation planning

Fosters climate resilient development and avoids maladaption

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

History of Climate Change Science

18

1824

Argument raised that the temperature of the Earth can be

augmented by the interposition of the atmosphere

1861

Indication that CO2 and H2O can cause changes in the

climate

1895
1938

First proposal of the idea of a man-made greenhouse

effect
Proof that doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration
resulted in an increase in the mean global temperature of
2C

1950s

Start of interdisciplinary field of carbon cycle science

1958

The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO2

concentration

1970s

Other greenhouse gases widely recognised

1979

The first World Climate Conference in Geneva

1988

Establishment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)

1990

The first IPCC report

Further information: BBC
Website

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Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

19

Section 2

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Anthropogenic Drivers of
Climate Change

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

20

IPCC Video on the Human

Influence on the Climate
System

Video: The video summarizes the main findings

of the 2013 IPCC Report on the physical science
basis of climate change.
URL: [Link]
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

21

Overview of Greenhouse Gases

Regulated under the Kyoto
Protocol
Greenhouse Gas

Global Warming
Potential (GWP) (over
100 years)

% of Total Anthropogenic
GHG Emissions (2010)

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

76%

Methane (CH4)

25

16%

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

298

6%

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

124-14,800

< 2%

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

7,390-12,200

< 2%

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

22,800

< 2%

Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)

17,200

< 2%

Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Important Greenhouse Gases:

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
22

Most important greenhouse gas

(contributes ~64% to total radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs)

Half of CO2 emitted by human activities

is being absorbed in the biosphere and
in the oceans

Rest remains in the atmosphere for

hundreds to thousands of years
Source: WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

23

CO2 Concentration in the

Atmosphere and Annual Growth
Rates

Since 1750
CO2 concentration in
the atmosphere has
increased by 40%.

Source: WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Important Greenhouse Gases:

Methane (CH4)
24

Second most significant greenhouse

gas (contributes ~18% to total
radiative forcing by long-lived
GHGs)

Approximately 40% of methane is

emitted into the atmosphere by
natural sources

About 60% comes from human

activities

Stays in the atmosphere for

approximately 12 years

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Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

25

CH4 Concentration in the

Atmosphere and Annual Growth
Rates

Since 1750
CH4 concentration in
the atmosphere has
increased by 150%.

Source: WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

In Focus: The Carbon Cycle

26

Source: UNEP
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Important Greenhouse Gases:

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
27

The third most significant

greenhouse gas (contributes ~6% to
total radiative forcing by long-lived
GHGs)

Stays in the atmosphere for

approximately 114 years

Nitrous oxide is emitted into the

atmosphere from both natural (about
60%) and anthropogenic sources
(approximately 40%)
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

28

N2O Concentration in the

Atmosphere and Annual Growth
Rates

Since 1750
N2O concentration in
the atmosphere has
increased by 20%.

Source: WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Important Greenhouse Gases:

Fluorinated Gases
29

Global warming effect up to 23,000

times greater than carbon dioxide

Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000

years

Three main groups:

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6)

Mainly developed as substitutes for

ozone-depleting substances
Source: IPCC 2007. Further info
EPA, EC

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Greenhouse Gases Controlled by

the Montreal Protocol
30

Montreal Protocol aimed to

phase out substances that
deplete the ozone layer

Substances regulated under the

Montreal Protocol are also
powerful greenhouse gases

For example,
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
contribute ~12% to radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs

Source: EPA

Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013. Further info: NOAA

Website
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Concentration of SF6 and

Halocarbons in the Atmosphere
31

Source: WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

Human Influence on the Climate

System
32

It is extremely likely
that more than 50%
of the warming
since 1951 is due to
the increase in
greenhouse gases
and other
anthropogenic
forcings together.

Source: IPCC 2013. Further info: WMO website

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change

33

Section 3

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Observed Trends and

Impacts of Climate Change

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Observed Surface Temperature

Anomaly (1850-2012)
34

Globally averaged land and ocean

surface temperature

Each of the last

three decades has
been successively
warmer at the
Earths surface than
any preceding
decade since 1850.

Source: IPCC 2013, p4

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

Observed Change in Annual

Precipitation Over Land
35

Source: IPCC 2013, p6

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Observed Ocean Warming

(1950-2010)
36

More than 60% of

the net energy
increase in the
climate system is
stored in the
upper ocean
(period 19712010).
Source: IPCC 2013, p8

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Observed Ocean Acidification

37

Source: IPCC 2013, p10

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Observed Sea Level Rise

(1900 to 2010)
38

Over the period

1901 to 2010,
global mean sea
level rose by
0.19m.

Source: IPCC 2013, p8

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea

Ice Extent (1900-2010)
39

Source: IPCC 2013, p8

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Observed Changes in Physical and

Biological Systems
40

Source: UNEP 2009, p13

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Number of Events

41

In Focus: Is Climate Change to

Blame for Extreme Weather
Events?

Year
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Source: UNEP
2009, p12.
Further info:
WMO Website
Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate
Change

42

Section 4

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Projected Trends and

Impacts of Climate Change

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

In Focus: Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
43

Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific

community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.

Four RCPs include:

one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing
level (RCP2.6),
two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), and
one scenario with very high greenhouse gas
emissions (RCP8.5).

RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate

policies.

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Projected Change in Average

Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC 2013, p19

44

Global surface temperature change for the end of

the 21st century is likely to reach 4C if no action is
taken.
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Projected Change in Average

Precipitation
45

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6

Scenario RCP 8.5

Source: IPCC 2013, p20

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Temperature and Precipitation

Projections for the 21st Century
46

Video: This NASA video shows how

temperature and precipitation patterns could
change throughout the 21st century.
URL: [Link]
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

Projected Change in Ocean

Surface pH
47

Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6

Scenario RCP 8.5

Source: IPCC 2013, p20

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Projected Sea Level Rise

48

Global mean
sea level will
continue to
rise during the
21st century.

Source: IPCC 2013, p24

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Projected Northern Hemisphere

September Sea Ice Extent
49

Average 2081-2100
Scenario RCP 2.6

Scenario RCP 8.5

Source: IPCC 2013, p20

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

in Africa
50

Source: UNEP 2009, p32

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

51

Projected Impacts of Climate

Change
in Asia

Source: UNEP
2009, p34
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

Projected Impacts of Climate

Change in Latin America
52

Source: UNEP
2009, p37
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

Projected Impacts of Climate

Change on Small Islands
53

Sea level rise exacerbating

inundation, storm surge,

erosion and other coastal
hazards

Reduced freshwater
resources
Invasion by non-native
species
Effects on food and income
security

Source: UNEP 2006, p185

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change

Carbon Crossroads
54

Source: Cambridge
University 2013, p 14
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

55

Global Warming by 2100 and

Beyond: A Function of Cumulative
CO2 Emissions
Limiting
climate
change will
require
substantial
and sustained
reductions of
greenhouse
gas
emissions.
Source: IPCC 2013, p26
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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate

Change

56

Section 5

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Sources of Scientific Data

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC)
57

Leading body for the

assessment of
climate change

Established in 1988
by UNEP and WMO

Does not conduct

any research itself

Thousands of
scientists from all
over the world
contribute to its work

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Assesses relevant
scientific, technical
and socio-economic
information

Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

Important Reports Published by the

IPCC

Guidance
for national
greenhous
e gas
inventories
Guidance
for
assessing
impacts of
climate
change
Land use,
land-use
change and
forestry

Technical Papers

Renewable
energy
sources
Extreme
events and
disasters
Emission
scenarios
Aviation
Carbon
capture
and
storage

Methodology Reports

Assessment Reports

First
assessmen
t report
(FAR)
Second
assessmen
t report
(SAR)
Third
assessmen
t report
(TAR)
Fourth
assessmen
t report
(AR4)
Fifth
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t report

Special Reports on:

58

Climate
change and
water
Implication
s of
proposed
CO2
emissions
limitations
Technologi
es, policies
and
measures
for
mitigating
climate
change

Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

59

World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) Global Climate
Programmes

World Climate Programme (WCP)

World Climate Research Programme
Global Climate Observing System
World Climate Services Programme
Programme of Research on Climate Change
Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme
(AREP)
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)

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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

In Focus: Global Framework for

Climate Services (GFCS)
60

URL: [Link]
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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

WMO Global Atmosphere Watch:

Measurement Stations Worldwide
61

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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

WMO Regional Climate Centers

and Outlook Forums
62

WMO Regional
Climate Centres
(RCCs)

WMO Regional
Climate Outlook
Forums (RCOFs)

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Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

National Climate Data

63

National
Meteorological and
Hydrological Services
(NMHS)
Collect and manage
national climate data
to help with
forecasting and
predictions

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Norfolk Island Meterological Office,

Source: Australian Government: Bureau of
Meteorology

Section 5: Sources of Scientific Data

64

Annex

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Additional Resources

Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Module Summary
65

Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions

between anthropogenic and natural factors.

Evidence of global climate change include higher average

temperatures, changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean
acidification, sea level rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in
physical and biological systems.

Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of

greenhouse gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the
industrial revolution.

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century
is likely to reach 4C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.

Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for
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Useful Links
66

IPCC Website

WMO Climate
Pages

Global Framework
For Climate
Services (GFCs)

World Climate
Programme (WCP)

World Bank
Climate Change
Knowledge Portal

NASA Global
Climate Change

ESA Climate
Change Initiative

NCAR Community
Data Portal

Max Planck: The

Atmosphere in the
Earth System

The Guardian
Climate Change
Pages

The National
Geographic Global Warming

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Additional Resources

Recommended Readings
67

Cambridge University (2013). Climate Change: Action, Trends and

Implications for Business

IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis Summary for Policymakers

UNEP (2009). Climate Change Science Compendium

UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC

Reports

WMO (2013). The Global Climate 20012010, A Decade of Climate

Extremes

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Additional Resources

Main References
68

IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report

IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial Science Basis Summary for Policymakers

UNEP (2009). Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC

Reports

UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012

WMO (2012): Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

WMO (2009). A History of Climate Activities

WMO Website: Climate

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Additional Resources