Machine Learning, Decision Trees, Overfitting
Recommended reading: Mitchell, Chapter 3
Machine Learning 10-701 Tom M. Mitchell Center for Automated Learning and Discovery Carnegie Mellon University September 13, 2005
Machine Learning:
Study of algorithms that improve their performance at some task with experience
Learning to Predict Emergency C-Sections
[Sims et al., 2000]
9714 patient records, each with 215 features
Object Detection
(Prof. H. Schneiderman)
Example training images for each orientation
Text Classification
Company home page vs Personal home page vs Univeristy home page vs
Reading a noun (vs verb)
[Rustandi et al., 2005]
Growth of Machine Learning
Machine learning is preferred approach to
Speech recognition, Natural language processing Computer vision Medical outcomes analysis Robot control Improved machine learning algorithms Improved data capture, networking, faster computers Software too complex to write by hand New sensors / IO devices Demand for self-customization to user, environment
This trend is accelerating
Decision tree learning
How would you represent AB CD(E)?
Each internal node: test one attribute Xi Each branch from a node: selects one value for Xi Each leaf node: predict Y (or P(Y|X leaf))
[ID3, C4.5, ] node = Root
Entropy
Entropy H(X) of a random variable X
H(X) is the expected number of bits needed to encode a randomly drawn value of X (under most efficient code) Why? Information theory: Most efficient code assigns -log2P(X=i) bits to encode the message X=i So, expected number of bits is:
Sample Entropy
Assume X values known, labels Y encoded
What you should know:
Well posed function approximation problems:
Instance space, X Sample of labeled training data, D = { <xi, yi>} Hypothesis space, H = { f: X Y }
Learning is a search/optimization problem over H
Various objective functions Today: minimize training error (0-1 loss)
Decision tree learning Greedy top-down learning of decision trees (ID3, C4.5, ...) Overfitting and tree/rule post-pruning Extensions