Institutional Trust Issues

From my recent column: Anyone who still believes in the American security guarantee must be an incurable optimist. In recent weeks, I have discussed the current security crisis in Europe in Delphi, Vilnius, Tallinn, and Prague. The picture is partly disheartening. The debate is dominated by politicians who are afraid to stand up to Trump and say that he is dismantling NATO. Moreover, they fear making the wrong decisions for which they may later be held accountable. They are supported by bureaucrats whose knowledge and solutions are not applicable to the current Russian threat. Rules and procurement procedures are maddening. Following procedures has now become more important than achieving results. That is why it takes years before anything gets off the ground. In many countries, it's even easier to give money to Ukraine so that drones can be purchased in, for example, the Netherlands, than it is to buy those same drones for their own armed forces. The debate is further dominated by former generals who too often fall back on now irrelevant knowledge and want to fight the previous war. There are dissenting voices. They come from thinktanks that the establishment finds irritating. There are, however, some bright spots. The European Union has taken the lead in the rearmament of Europe. Many priorities make sense, from drones to air defense, and from long-range weapons to cyber defense. There is enough money available. At the same time, old thinking still prevails. The war in Ukraine shows that technological developments are moving rapidly and that the acquisition of heavy weapons systems such as tanks, fighter aircraft, and even warships is no longer the priority. In Ukraine, everything revolves around drones — at least until countermeasures are developed against them as well. The same applies to NATO: the first line of defense consists of drones, missiles, and air defense systems. Speed is essential, but the obstacles are enormous, while the signals coming from intelligence agencies are alarming. A report presented in Prague by GLOBSEC identified shortages of qualified personnel and found that most funding goes to large companies producing traditional weapons systems, whose delivery times are becoming shockingly long while prices are exploding. European startups with innovative solutions — which, as in Ukraine, play an essential role in defense and can deliver quickly — are being underfunded. Yet politicians across Europe continue to insist that we cannot do without America. They are hitting the brakes at a moment when speed is urgently needed. Because we have a problem now, and it must be solved now. Putin knows that too. *** Read the full column at HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies here: https://lnkd.in/eAdR3bMU

"Disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining electoral integrity are expected to play an ever larger role in elections due to the increased availability of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools that can produce high-quality synthetic text, audio, images and videos and their potential for targeted personalization. As these campaigns become more sophisticated and manipulative, the foreseeable consequence is further erosion of trust in institutions and heightened disintegration of civic integrity, jeopardizing a host of human rights, including electoral rights and the right to freedom of thought. → These developments are occurring at a time when the companies that create the fabric of digital society should be investing heavily in, but instead are dismantling, the “integrity” or “trust and safety” teams that counter these threats. Policy makers must hold AI companies liable for the harms caused or facilitated by their products that could have been reasonably foreseen. They should act quickly to ban using AI to impersonate real people or organizations, and require the use of watermarking or other provenance tools to allow people to differentiate between AI-generated and authentic content." By David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull of the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI).

🗞️ The reason why European democracies have a hard time calling out Russian actions, re-imposeing deterrence and implementing countermesures of democratic resilience: Russia’s specific sub-threshold approach targeting Europe’s political willingness and ability to sustain support for Ukraine. 🔹 a full blown approach carefully selecting critical vulnerabilities rather than symbolic targets: • institutional veto players able to block EU decisions • logistical hubs supporting Ukraine • military airbases, ports, railways and airports • critical infrastructure such as nuclear facilities • decision-making moments where pressure is likely to influence political outcomes. The report describes Russia’s a six-step coercion cycle: 1️⃣ identify a European decision benefiting Ukraine 2️⃣ identify the weakest point capable of blocking it 3️⃣ publicly signal consequences through official threats 4️⃣ conduct calibrated sub-threshold attacks 5️⃣ induce political hesitation or behavioural change 6️⃣ halt attacks once the objective is achieved. 🔹 A typical campaign combines multiple instruments: ✈️ drone incursions over military bases, airports and nuclear sites 💥 sabotage of critical infrastructure 🎯 assassination plots and disposable-agent operations 🛰️ intelligence-led targeting 💬 coercive diplomatic messaging from Kremlin officials timed to coincide with operational activity. 🔹 Acute sense of timing, as key as targeting : Attacks are synchronised with major European political decisions on sanctions, frozen assets, military assistance or force deployments, maximising political pressure while remaining below the threshold of open war. 🔹 Russia plays Europe’s instititutional rules against us : • unanimity rules creating veto opportunities • finite defence budgets forcing trade-offs between protecting Europe and supporting Ukraine • democratic sensitivity to domestic political pressure • nuclear deterrence limiting the risk of direct Western military retaliation. 🔹 The report establishes that no comparable sub-threshold attacks were recorded against European countries that do not actively support Ukraine => target selection is driven by strategic utility 🔹 The authors conclude that Russia’s cost-benefit calculation must be reversed so that every sub-threshold attack generates greater military and financial support for Ukraine, rather than less. By HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Markus Iven @ethan mansfield Nicole Eichstaedt T. (Tim) Sweijs Full report below 👇🏼

One of the biggest threats to our democracy is the lack of full participation. People with lower incomes and those without college degrees vote at significantly lower rates than Americans with higher earnings and more education; people of color are also less likely to vote than White people. These problems have worsened over the last few election cycles. Important new research from professor Daniel Laurison and colleagues from Swarthmore College highlights a powerful reality behind this problem: many working-class and low-income Americans aren’t apathetic about politics — they feel disconnected from it. Based on hundreds of interviews across Pennsylvania, the report offers powerful insights into why participation gaps persist and what could rebuild trust. Key findings: • Politics feels “not for people like me.” Many non-voters and infrequent voters see politics as dominated by wealthier, more educated people and feel excluded from political spaces. • Widespread belief that the system is corrupt or ineffective. Participants often doubt that politicians care about their communities or that government can deliver meaningful change. • Disconnection—not apathy—drives disengagement. Most interviewees care deeply about their families, communities, and issues, but struggle to see how politics connects to their daily lives. What would help rebuild engagement? The report highlights key priorities: 1️⃣ Show how politics improves real lives. People want clear, tangible links between policy and the problems they face. 2️⃣ Increase representation. People want to see leaders from working-class and low-income backgrounds across government and political organizations. 3️⃣ Spend more time listening in communities. Trust grows when leaders engage directly and consistently with the people they represent. The punchline: Political disengagement is often a symptom of disconnection and distrust—not lack of interest. Rebuilding participation means making politics more relatable, representative, and responsive. For more information and to download the report: https://lnkd.in/gMMFEwGZ

At the Munich Security Conference, Europe was labelled a "sleeping giant." It is a region with latent potential to become a more formidable and self-reliant defence actor. Our research shows that Europe’s NATO defence budget for 2024 was €414 billion, ranking third behind the United States and China. As NATO pledges to nearly double military spending, we have worked with the Milken Institute and Jacques Delors Institute to examine the readiness challenges ahead. Increasing budgets alone won’t solve critical issues: limited industrial capacity, fragmented procurement, labour shortages, and overreliance on imports—especially from China—threaten Europe’s defence resilience. Defence dynamics will continue to evolve rapidly and critically it’s important to transform budgets into scalable capacity and innovation to ensure Europe is ready not just to respond but to lead, and this is the focus of this detailed report: https://owy.mn/4681CQe

Amazon customer reviews are starting to disappear! Across various reports on Reddit and Hacker News we’re seeing the same pattern: No more pagination. No more access to all reviews. No more scrolling through hundreds or thousands of real customer opinions. What’s left? A short AI-generated review summary. A tiny handful of "Top Reviews". A restricted, curated view of customer feedback. Not everyone sees it yet, which strongly suggests an A/B test or early-stage rollout. But Amazon doesn’t run tests like this without a reason. So the question becomes: why? Amazon customer reviews are one of the most valuable datasets in all of e-commerce. They contain millions of high-intent, product-level, sentiment-rich statements. Now that Amazon is in direct competition with OpenAI, Google and others for the end consumer’s AI-powered product search, those reviews are no longer just public feedback. They’re a strategic asset. And Amazon is treating them like one. For sellers and vendors, the consequences would be huge: – You could no longer monitor customer sentiment in depth. – You would lose the ability to analyze trends across hundreds of reviews. – Negative issues could hide beneath the surface, without any way to see the full picture. – Review-based tools and workflows across the entire Amazon ecosystem would break overnight. And for customers? You would no longer read actual raw feedback. You would read what Amazon chooses to show you. Or what their AI decides to summarize. And that would be nothing short of a paradigm shift. We’re not fully there yet. But Amazon is clearly testing something, and it’s not a harmless UI tweak. We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Amazon review era as we knew it...

Microsoft's example shows that the company can cut off Europeans' access to critical operating systems ‼️ 👉 Microsoft’s decision to block access to the email account of International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor due to sanctions imposed by the US government shows us that the EU cannot trust US operating system providers. The US applied sanctions in February to ICC staff in response to their investigations into Israeli politicians. This challenges the trust of all users of Microsoft's cloud technologies in Europe. ☝️Microsoft just held a major lobbying event in Europe, claiming that European services are safe and detached from the US government’s unpredictable decision-making. This was now proven to be just a poor pitch. Naturally, US companies must comply with US law. For Europeans, this means we cannot trust the reliability and security of US companies' operating systems. A large part of our public sectors’ services rely on Microsoft’s products. This is a major cause of uncertainty. ☝️With this decision, Microsoft is raising awareness in Europe on how totally reliant and vulnerable we are in our dependence on US technology companies. We must finally put our companies first and build European alternatives. Europe cannot rely on mercy of the US or Chinese governments’ decisions. This requires also protective actions. 👉 We no longer have the same trust with the Trump administration - meaning, that we need to review our data transfer agreement with the US. Europe must wake up and understand we can only rely on ourselves. This is a significant factor for both European competitiveness and comprehensive security. European data should no longer be given to the Americans for their development work free of charge. #data #security #sovereignty https://lnkd.in/d7b4RNdU

🌍📢 The United Nations’ first-ever Global Risk Report is out, — and mis‑ and #disinformation has emerged as one of the top global threats in the years ahead. 🔎 Based on expert input from across 136 countries, the report identifies 28 major global risks — and places mis‑ and disinformation at the forefront of concern. 📊 Key finding: 🟥 Over 80% of respondents say mis‑ and disinformation is already occurring now, making it the most pervasive currently unfolding global #risk. 🚨 That means it’s not just a future threat — it’s a present crisis. And yet, experts agree that global institutions are poorly prepared to respond. 🤝 The report flags mis‑ and disinformation as a top global vulnerability: 🧠 Undermining public trust 📣 Fueling polarisation 🌐 Weakening institutions 💥 Disrupting crisis response 📉 Without strong international cooperation or coherent governance of the information space, this risk threatens to erode societal resilience from the inside out. 💡 The UN calls for urgent collective action: ✅ Advance digital literacy ✅ Promote information integrity ✅ Foster cross-sector resilience — from governments and platforms to civil society ✅ Integrate mis‑ and disinformation into global risk governance frameworks 🛡️ This isn’t just about falsehoods — it’s about our ability to withstand crises, preserve democratic dialogue, and maintain institutional trust. Strengthening societal resilience in the face of mis‑ and disinformation must become a core pillar of risk preparedness. 📖 👉 Full report: https://lnkd.in/d9cEewpC We can’t afford to ignore the information crisis at the heart of our global risk landscape. #UN #GlobalRiskReport #Misinformation #Disinformation #InformationIntegrity #Trust #DigitalLiteracy #RiskGovernance #StrategicCommunication #SocietalResilience

Ever wondered how many online reviews are actually fake? You'll be shocked by the numbers! Big news in the e-commerce world. Some of the industry giants like Amazon, Expedia, and Glassdoor have come together to form the Coalition for Trusted Reviews. This is a huge step forward in combating fake reviews, and here's why it matters: ✅ The Scale of the Problem Did you know that a staggering 30.9% of online reviews were found to be fraudulent in a 2020 study by Fakespot? That's almost one-third of all reviews! This coalition aims to significantly reduce this number. ✅ Industry Alignment The coalition is working on developing common standards and definitions for what constitutes a fake review. This is crucial for creating a unified front against fraudulent activities. ✅ Best Practice Sharing The members are committed to defining best practices for hosting online reviews. They're also keen on sharing updated methods for detecting fake reviews. This collaborative approach is a game-changer. ✅ Information Sharing One of the key areas the coalition will focus on is sharing information on how fraudulent actors operate. For instance, Amazon has already taken legal action against more than 10,000 Facebook groups responsible for generating fake reviews. ✅ Advocacy The coalition is not just about industry players; it's also about engaging with academics and public policy leaders. The aim is to promote the benefits of genuine review content and support efforts to prevent fake reviews from being published. ✅ Legal Actions Amazon has been quite aggressive in this area. Just this June, they filed new lawsuits against users generating fake reviews. It's clear that the coalition members are not just talking; they're taking action. ✅ Future Plans The coalition members will meet again in Brussels this December at the next Fake Reviews Conference. We can expect more updates and possibly new members joining the cause. So, what does this mean for us? As consumers, we can look forward to more trustworthy reviews. As business owners, it's a call to action to ensure our review systems are transparent and reliable. Let's keep the conversation going about e-commerce with Irina Poddubnaia and TrackMage. What are your thoughts on this coalition and the fight against fake reviews?

Today I was back in Brussels for a Rasmussen Global conference on the future of European security. In my speech I was clear: Europe faces an existential threat. The security model that has underpinned peace and prosperity in Europe for decades no longer exists. And it is not coming back. Europe must urgently take greater responsibility for its own security. The question is how—and how quickly—we can rise to this challenge. We need a European Security Plan. A security plan which aims at countering Russia’s aggression, securing a sustainable peace in Ukraine, while keeping the U.S. engaged in the Transatlantic alliance. I believe that should be built on five key elements: First, increase defence spending to Cold War levels, to meet the reality of an aggressive and expansionist Russia. All NATO allies should commit to spending 3% of GDP on defence, with 0.5% dedicated to Ukraine’s defence. Second, Europe should show it is willing to meet the bulk of the cost of its own security and protecting Ukraine, taking on at least 70% of the financial cost. In return, the U.S. should remain committed to providing the 20-30% of military aid that only it can provide – such as advanced airlift or surveillance capabilities. Third, Europe must show it is prepared to take the bulk of political risk to underpin peace in Ukraine. That should start with a coalition of European states deploying military trainers and advisers to Western Ukraine. Fourth, Europe must ramp up economic pressure on Russia and its enablers, including China. Europe should join U.S.-led efforts to reduce Russia’s profits from oil and gas exports and support new sanctions on Chinese companies aiding Moscow’s war effort. Fifth, we must reaffirm our commitment to Ukraine’s membership of both the European Union and NATO. Progress on EU accession must happen quickly but EU leaders must also be unequivocal with Washington - EU membership is not feasible without strong security guarantees for Kyiv. And the strongest security guarantee possible remains Ukraine’s membership of NATO. We have the tools at our disposal to face down Russia and build a new and lasting security architecture for our continent. We now need is the political will to deliver it. Read the full proposals for a European security plan here - https://lnkd.in/gn9Fzg_K