Forecasting Labor Market Shifts

The Future of Jobs Report 2025 provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving global labor market landscape, focusing on key trends shaping employment, skills, and workforce strategies for the 2025-2030 period. Here are the main highlights: Key Macrotrends Driving Labor Market Transformation 1. Technological Change: Broadening digital access is expected to be the most transformative trend, with 60% of employers anticipating its impact. AI and information processing technologies are projected to create 11 million jobs while displacing 9 million. Robotics and autonomous systems are expected to be the largest net job displacer, with a net decline of 5 million jobs. 2. Green Transition: Climate change mitigation and adaptation are driving demand for roles like renewable energy engineers and environmental engineers. 47% of employers expect efforts to reduce carbon emissions to transform their business by 2030. 3. Geoeconomic Fragmentation: 34% of surveyed organizations see heightened geopolitical tensions as a key driver of transformation. Increased restrictions on trade and investment are expected to impact 23% of businesses. 4. Economic Uncertainty: Rising cost of living ranks as the second-most transformative trend overall. Slower economic growth is the only macrotrend expected to drive more job destruction than creation. 5. Demographic Shifts: Aging populations in higher-income economies and growing working-age populations in lower-income economies are reshaping labor markets. These trends are driving increased demand for healthcare and education-related roles. Jobs Outlook By 2030, 22% of today's jobs are expected to be transformed, with 14% new job creation and 8% job displacement. Fastest-growing roles include Big Data Specialists, FinTech Engineers, and AI/Machine Learning Specialists. Largest declines are expected in clerical and secretarial roles. Skills Outlook 39% of workers' core skills are expected to change by 2030. Top core skills include analytical thinking, resilience/flexibility, leadership, and creative thinking. Fastest-growing skills are in AI/big data, cybersecurity, and technological literacy. Manual dexterity and precision skills show the largest projected decline. Workforce Strategies 85% of employers plan to prioritize upskilling their workforce. 70% expect to hire staff with new skills. 50% plan to transition staff from declining to growing roles. Human-Machine Frontier By 2030, work tasks are expected to be nearly evenly split between humans, technology, and human-machine collaboration. The potential impact on human workers' share of economic value creation remains a key consideration. This report underscores the need for proactive measures in workforce development, emphasizing the importance of continuous learning and adaptability in navigating the rapidly evolving job market.

Jobless Claims Fall as Reemployment Slows and Hiring Demand Softens The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 202,000, below expectations of 212K and down from a revised 211K the prior week. The four week moving average declined to 207,750. Continuing claims increased to 1.841 million, up from 1.816 million. At the same time, the March Challenger report showed that U.S. companies announced over 60,000 job cuts, an increase from the prior month, while JOLTS data has continued to show a gradual decline in job openings. On the surface, this is a stable labor market. Layoffs remain low and initial claims are still sitting in a range that does not suggest broad stress. But the more important signal is in continuing claims. That increase tells us that when people do lose jobs, it is taking longer to find the next one. The labor market is not weakening through layoffs. It is becoming less fluid. That shift is showing up across multiple data points. The Challenger report tracks announced job cuts before they appear in official labor data, and the recent increase suggests companies are becoming more selective in how they manage headcount. At the same time, JOLTS data continues to show fewer job openings, which points to softer hiring demand. Put simply, the labor market is not breaking. It is tightening. And that distinction matters. A spike in layoffs hits quickly and visibly. A slowdown in hiring is quieter, but it changes outcomes over time. It can mean longer job searches, more downward pressure on wages for those switching roles, and less overall mobility. This is what a no hire no fire environment looks like. Companies are holding onto workers, but they are not in a rush to add more. When uncertainty rises, hiring is usually the first place you see it. It is also worth noting that this data reflects conditions before the most recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran. If that uncertainty carries forward, the more likely response is continued hesitation in hiring rather than an immediate increase in layoffs. For the broader economy, this creates a more uneven dynamic. Employment is still supporting spending, but the experience of the labor market is getting more restrictive. Some households will not feel much change. Others will feel it in slower job transitions and fewer options. At Havas Edge, we spend a lot of time on this relationship between layoffs, hiring demand, and reemployment because it tends to show up in consumer behavior before it shows up in the headline economic data.

Wage growth is cooling off Labor cost pressures will continue to ease in the coming quarters as the balance of power shifts away from workers and to employers. We extended Heise, Pearce, and Weber's (2024) labor market tightness study by expanding the regression window through Q3-2025, adding five additional quarters beyond their original sample ending in Q2-2024. The HPW Index—a composite measure combining the quits rate and vacancies-to-effective-searchers ratio (V/ES)—has declined significantly from its pandemic-era peak of approximately 2.8 in early 2022 to -0.06 in Q3-2025, marking the first negative reading since the pre-pandemic period. This represents a substantial normalization in labor market conditions, with the index now sitting just below historical average of zero (by construction, the standardized index has mean zero over the estimation sample). The HPW Index's trajectory suggests that labor market tightness has fully unwound its extraordinary post-pandemic surge, with conditions now consistent with or slightly below the 1994-2025 average. While there may be some residual momentum in wage pressures, the 0.90 correlation between the HPW Index and smoothed wage growth suggests that wage growth should continue moderating in coming quarters as the lagged effects of reduced labor market tightness work through.

By 2030, 60% of new jobs won’t require a traditional degree. Between 2023–2025, over 1.3 million new jobs emerged globally, driven by new technology and deep workforce shifts. Not extensions of old roles. Entirely new ones. AI integrators. Data annotators. Forward-deployed engineers. Data center technicians. Jobs that barely existed five years ago are now powering digital economies. Last year alone, 600,000+ AI-enabled data center jobs were created globally on LinkedIn. This is the rise of the new-collar era. An emerging workforce that blends knowledge work, advanced technical skills, and distinctly human strengths. I went through LinkedIn’s latest global labor market report, and here are the most important points: 👉 First: the slowdown in hiring is NOT because AI is stealing jobs. It’s because skills are rotating faster than resumes. Roles are opening up. But candidates are still pitching themselves for jobs that no longer exist in the same form. 👉 Second: skills are no longer evolving gradually. They’re leaping. LinkedIn’s data shows companies aren’t waiting for “perfect profiles” anymore. They’re hiring people who can adapt, learn fast, and apply skills across roles. 👉 And finally, we’ve fully entered what LinkedIn calls the new-collar era. These are jobs where: • Titles matter less than capability. • Career breaks are acceptable if learning is visible. • Experience can come from projects, freelancing, or problem-solving, not just payroll history. So here’s what actually works now if you want to stay employable in 2026: 1️⃣ Stop preparing for roles. Start preparing for problems. In interviews, talk about what you can improve, automate, fix, or scale. That’s how new-collar hiring decisions are made. 2️⃣ Make skill shifts visible, not implied. Recruiters won’t guess. Your resume and LinkedIn must clearly show how you’ve evolved in the last 12–18 months. 3️⃣ Treat interviews as translation, not validation. Most candidates lose offers because they can’t connect skills to business outcomes. Learning is useless if you can’t explain it. The world of work isn’t shrinking. It’s rotating. And the people who rotate with it don’t chase job security. They build relevance. 👉 If you had to reinvent your profile for the next 18 months, which skill would you double down on first? #careercoach #futureofwork #interviewpreparation #jobsearchindia #skills #careergrowth #ai #jobmarket

Deputy's 2025 Big Shift report explores how the next generation of workers is transforming the world of hourly work. Based on millions of real-world shift data points, the research uncovers key trends shaping the future of work — from flexible scheduling to the rise of AI. Here are the top insights: Rise of Micro-Shifts: Short, flexible shifts (six hours or less) are gaining popularity, especially in hospitality and service industries, accommodating workers like students and caregivers seeking balance. Gen Z's Influence: As the largest segment of the hourly workforce, Gen Z is driving demand for flexible scheduling and work-life integration, prompting businesses to adapt to attract and retain talent. AI Integration: Artificial intelligence is enhancing shift work by optimizing scheduling and improving work-life balance, rather than replacing jobs. Poly-Employment Trend: Approximately 20% of shift workers hold multiple jobs, with young women, particularly in hospitality and healthcare, leading this trend to manage cost-of-living pressures. Gender Disparities: Women dominate shift work but often occupy lower-paying service roles. However, there's a growing presence of women in traditionally male-dominated fields like logistics. Generational Shift: Generation Alpha began entering the workforce in 2024 and is projected to surpass Gen Z by 2038, indicating ongoing evolution in workforce demographics. These findings are based on an analysis of over 278 million hours worked across 41 million shifts by more than 429,000 shift workers, conducted in collaboration with labor economist Dr. Shashi Karunanethy.

Don’t Let the Labor Market Fool You—The Economy May Be Stronger Than It Looks There’s a growing debate: Are AI tools already lifting productivity? Let’s assume yes. Picture firms squeezing more output from fewer people, especially in AI-exposed roles. Layer on a tariff-induced growth downshift and rising uncertainty. In that world, soft labor data could mask a surprisingly resilient economy. Payrolls, vacancies, even rising layoffs would scream “slowdown,” yet much of the weakness would stem from efficiency—not demand loss. What might the next few quarters show? • Real GDP: still-solid 1.5–2.5 % • Job growth: < 100 k per month—rare outside recessions • Layoffs: drifting up, openings drifting down • Profits & equity markets: rebounding as unit-labor-costs fall Bottom line: Don’t jump to conclusions if headline jobs numbers sag. They might be signaling an AI-powered “job-light expansion” rather than a slump. Thoughts? #productivity #ai ##jobgrowth #labormarkets #recruitment #layoffs #profits

Why are investors obsessing over today's jobs headline when revisions just slashed last month's numbers by 50,000? 😲 I've learned to skip the hype. As a CFA, I focus on what truly signals economic shifts in my own portfolio management. First, revisions matter more than fresh prints—they reveal the real trend. With recent immigration policies easing labor supply, we might only need 40K jobs monthly to hold unemployment steady. Yet, we've averaged under that lately. Result? Unemployment ticked up to 4.6%. The labor market is softening—undeniable. To cut through noise, I track the rolling 3-month Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) average. It smooths volatility and highlights momentum for bonds, equities, and currencies. Right now, it's dipping, signaling unchartered territory for the Fed. Proof: In my portfolio, this insight prompted a shift away from long-duration bonds toward shorter maturities some years ago—avoiding yield traps amid sticky inflation above 2% for 50+ months. National debt surging past $38 trillion doesn't help, even near full employment. Gold's outperforming bonds as an equity hedge lately—yields rising during risk-off days. I'm bracing for higher unemployment with persistent inflation into 2026. No recommendations here—just sharing my high-level approach. Which signal are you eyeing most: 1) Revisions, 2) NFP trends, or 3) Debt explosion? Comment your number below—I'll reply to the first 10! #LaborMarketTrends #EconomicInsights #PortfolioStrategy #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentTrends

There's been an interesting mix shift in labor market data since last summer. The JOLTS data indicates that hiring stabilized in the summer, followed shortly thereafter by quits. And tugging in the opposite direction, we've also seen a modest increase in layoffs. A second data source is now sending early "quit stabilization" signals: the Current Population Survey (CPS): 1/ Job to job transition probabilities, a metric designed by Moscarini/Fujita/Postel-Vinay, have been stable for over a year. I think of these as low-risk quits. [Chart in comments.] 2/ Quits into non-employment, a metric designed by Amanda Michaud and Kathrin Ellieroth, were declining pretty steadily, but are showing tentative signs of stability. I think of these as high-risk quits. [Chart below.] For what it's worth, Michaud & Ellieroth also find an ongoing rise in layoffs into non-employment. We'll see what the trade war does to this tentative stabilization!

Govt labor numbers are paused, but Vanguard's are out. Hiring has slowed, particularly for younger workers. Income growth remains above inflation. Hourly workers give early signals of income changes. Vanguard data confirm recent trends observed in government data on the U.S. labor market: Hiring has slowed. The rate of job growth has slowed from a peak of 0.36% in August 2022 to 0.09% in September 2025. The last time it remained below 0.10% for an extended period was in 2009, during the recession that followed the global financial crisis. “Recent large revisions to nonfarm payroll releases, driven by low survey response rates and methodological limitations, have raised concerns about the reliability of headline employment figures,” said Shengwei (Nicky) Zhang. “In contrast, Vanguard’s net hires rate is derived from administrative data, which are not subject to such revisions and offer a stable and timely view of labor market dynamics.” Hiring has cooled, particularly for younger workers. “Younger workers have historically accounted for a large share of employment growth, so they are particularly exposed to the pullback in firms’ hiring activity,” said Adam Schickling, CFA. As of September 2025, income growth for hourly workers (+4.3%) and salaried workers (+3.6%) still exceeded inflation. With the hire rate dropping and hourly income growth remaining above 4%, firms for now seem to be managing costs through headcount rather than hours and wages. But all eyes are on hourly workers. Income changes among hourly workers have been an early indicator of turning points in the business cycle. With new job growth at historically low levels, firms may soon use other levers to adjust their labor utilization. Businesses with hourly workers have an extra degree of flexibility: They can scale hours up or down without hiring or laying off employees. Since hourly workers represent about 55% of the U.S. workforce—and a similar share of Vanguard’s 401(k) population—hours adjustments can greatly affect both production and household income," said Aaron Goodman. What we (and the Fed) will be watching: Although hiring momentum has slowed, Vanguard data illustrate persistent labor market resilience. In the months ahead, we’ll be looking to hourly workers’ paychecks as a leading indicator of labor market conditions, household finances, and consumer spending.        Labor pulse by Vanguard Investment Research: https://lnkd.in/eA4daZ5R

The agitated AI automation debate remains too narrow. Too often it turns mainly on abstract statistical forecasts of jobs' "exposure" to AI.   Meanwhile, the usual measures omit significant attention to something critical: workers' varied ability to adapt if job loss does occur.   This week, though, a new brief from Brookings Metro--published alongside a longer technical paper from the NBER--aims to put worker traits front and center. Here's the brief: https://lnkd.in/exUcEZSu   And here's the technical paper: https://lnkd.in/e6NUyAWc Developed by Sam Manning of the Centre for the Governance of AI and Tomás Aguirre with support on the brief from myself and Shriya Methkupally, the research is novel in that it factors a new measure of workers' "adaptive capacity" into measurements of jobs' "exposure" to AI so as to identify which workers may be most likely to struggle with disruptions.    Currently, most measures of AI exposure overlook workers' adaptability—their varied abilities to navigate labor market change. This matters because such non-technological factors such as savings, age, skills, and geographic density all influence a worker's capacity to transition to new work if that's necessary. And so the new analysis takes into account workers' particular characteristics to assess their "resilience" or "vulnerability."   What does the analysis find?   --Overall, there's a lot of resilience out there. Overall, some 70% of highly exposed workers (or 26 million workers) are employed in jobs with higher than average capacity to manage job transitions if necessary. These workers are often in managerial and computer-based occupations.    --At the same time, significant pockets of precariousness warrant concern. All told, some 4.2% of highly exposed workers--some 6.1 million workers, mostly women in highly-exposed clerical and administrative roles--appear likely to struggle to handle AI-driven job losses.   In short, many workers are quite well equipped to manage AI-driven work shifts but many are not—especially women in clerical or administrative jobs.   Which gets at the practical value of Sam's and Tomas' analysis.  By factoring in workers' adaptability, policymakers should focus their attention on workers with the weakest adaptive capacity, who are likely to face the highest welfare costs if displaced. With potentially much disruption coming society, government, and firms will need to focus on those who need help most. The Brookings Institution Brookings Metro Rob Seamans Gad Levanon Molly Kinder Bledi Taska, Ph.D. Douglas A. Wilson Byron Auguste Papia Debroy Justin Heck Joe Parilla Erik Brynjolfsson Peter McCrory Alex Tamplin Tyna Eloundou Avi Goldfarb Daniel Rock Nicholas Thompson Kevin Roose Pamela Mishkin Ethan Mollick Derek Kilmer Rachel Isacoff Tyler Cowen