GOLOS DAS EQUIPAS GOLOS DA LIGA

Média de Golos Média de Golos Média de Golos

Marcados Sofridos Marcados

CASA 1.62 0.77 1.53

VISITANTE 0.54 1.46 1.16

Ajuste
Valores Iniciais
(+vantagem da Casa)
Golos Esperados CASA 1.55 1.62
Golos Esperados Visitante 0.36 0.28

Total de golos 1.90 1.90

Market Probability
CASA 73.5%
1X2 EMPATE 18.1%
VISITANTE 8.4%
1X 91.6%
Double X2 26.5%
chance
12 81.9%
OVER_0,5 93.0%
O/U_0.5
UNDER_0,5 7.0%
OVER_1,5 77.0%
O/U_1.5
UNDER_1,5 23.0%
OVER_2,5 39.9%
O/U_2.5
UNDER_2,5 60.1%
OVER_3,5 16.9%
O/U_3.5
UNDER_3,5 83.1%
AMBAS MARCAM 27.3%
BTTS/NO_BTTS
AMBAS NÃO MARCAM 72.7%

CS - 0-0 7.0%

CS - 0-1 6.0%
CS - 1-0 10.0%
CS - 1-1 10.0%
CS - 2-0 26.3%

CORRECT
SCORE
 CS - 0-2 0.8%

CORRECT CS - 2-1 7.4%

SCORE
CS - 1-2 1.3%
CS - 3-0 14.2%
CS - 0-3 0.1%
CS - 2-2 1.0%
CS - 3-1 4.0%
CS - 1-3 0.1%
CS - Home(4+) 11.0%
CS - Draw(4+) 0.00%
CS - Away(4+) 0.0%
S DA LIGA Corrigido
Média de Golos
Sofridos
Corrigir resultados corretos de other 67.00%
0-0,1-0,0-1 e 1-1
1.16 low-scores 33.00%

1.53 100.00%
Resultado Correção
correcto "histórico" α β

corretivos
Fatores "0-0"
"1-0"
7.00%
10.00%
0.47
0.41
1.34
Mo
Otimizar valores
Factor de beta para dar
Casa "0-1" 6.00% 1.43
probabilidade de
100%
5.0% "1-1" 10.00% 1.47

Golos Exatos
Fair odd Prob. Odd
1.36 0 7.00% 14.29
5.53 1 16.00% 6.25
11.92 2 37.10% 2.70
1.09 3 22.99% 4.35
3.78 4 10.95% 9.14
1.22 >4 5.96% 16.78
1.08
14.29 Vitória com
1.30 diferença de golos
4.35 CASA VISITANTE
2.51 1 18.0% 7%
1.66 2 30.55% 0.92%
5.92 3 15.94% 0.08%
1.20 4 6.33% 0.01%
3.67 >4 2.72% 0.0%
1.38

14.29

16.67
Mercados Asiáticos (handicaps)

CASA
Mo
VISITANTE
10.00 Fair Odds
10.00 2 1.00 1115.18 -2
3.80 1.75 1.01 181.92 -1.75
 126.66 1.5 1.01 99.45 -1.5

13.52 1.25 1.01 95.78 -1.25

78.04 1 1.01 92.11 -1
7.02 0.75 1.05 20.50 -0.75
1351.55 0.5 1.09 11.92 -0.5
96.15 0.25 1.10 10.84 -0.25
24.98 0 1.11 9.76 0
832.66 -0.25 1.24 5.22 0.25
9.09 -0.5 1.36 3.78 0.5
65274.11 -0.75 1.41 3.44 0.75
3888.47 -1 1.48 3.10 1
-1.25 1.64 2.57 1.25
-1.5 1.80 2.25 1.5
-1.75 2.10 1.91 1.75
-2 2.78 1.56 2
Antigo diff
49.95% 17.05%
50.05% -17.05%
100.00%

Modelo de Poisson simplificado corrigido*

Resultado

VISITANTE
GOALS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 7.00% 6.00% 0.79% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 10.00% 10.00% 1.28% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 26.31% 7.40% 1.04% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 14.24% 4.00% 0.56% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CASA

4 5.78% 1.62% 0.23% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

5 1.88% 0.53% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 0.51% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 0.12% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
65.86% 29.74% 4.00% 0.38% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Modelo de Poisson simplificado*

Resultado
 VISITANTE
GOALS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 14.89% 4.19% 0.59% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1 24.17% 6.80% 0.96% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 19.62% 5.52% 0.78% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
3 10.61% 2.98% 0.42% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
CASA

4 4.31% 1.21% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

5 1.40% 0.39% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
6 0.38% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
75.49% 21.22% 2.98% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
rigido*

9 10
0.00% 0.00% 13.87%
0.00% 0.00% 21.41%
0.00% 0.00% 34.86%
0.00% 0.00% 18.86%
0.00% 0.00% 7.65%
0.00% 0.00% 2.48%
0.00% 0.00% 0.67%
0.00% 0.00% 0.16%
0.00% 0.00% 0.03%
0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 100.00%

cado*
 9 10
0.00% 0.00% 19.73%
0.00% 0.00% 32.02%
0.00% 0.00% 25.99%
0.00% 0.00% 14.06%
0.00% 0.00% 5.71%
0.00% 0.00% 1.85%
0.00% 0.00% 0.50%
0.00% 0.00% 0.12%
0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
 GOLOS DAS EQUIPAS
Média de Golos Média de Golos
Marcados Sofridos

CASA 1.62 0.77

VISITANTE 0.54 1.46

Valores Iniciais Ajuste(+vantagem da Casa)

Golos Esperados CASA 1.55 1.62
Golos Esperados Visitante 0.36 0.28
Total de golos 1.90 1.90

Market Probability

CASA 71.5%
1X2
EMPATE 22.5%
VISITANTE 6.0%
OVER_0,5 85.1%
O/U_0.5
UNDER_0,5 14.9%
OVER_1,5 56.7%
O/U_1.5
UNDER_1,5 43.3%
OVER_2,5 29.7%
O/U_2.5
UNDER_2,5 70.3%
OVER_3,5 12.6%
O/U_3.5
UNDER_3,5 87.4%
AMBAS MARCAM 19.7%
BTTS/NO_BTTS
AMBAS NÃO MARCAM 80.3%
CS - 0-0 14.9%
CS - 0-1 4.2%
CS - 1-0 24.2%
CS - 1-1 6.8%
CS - 2-0 19.6%
CS - 0-2 0.6%
CORRECT CS - 2-1 5.5%
SCORE CS - 1-2 1.0%
CS - 3-0 10.6%
CS - 0-3 0.1%
CS - 2-2 0.8%
CS - 3-1 3.0%
CS - 1-3 0.1%
Todos os Outros 8.8%
 GOLOS DA LIGA
Média de Golos Média de Golos
Marcados Sofridos

1.53 1.16
1.16 1.53

Factor Casa
Modelo d
5.0%

Fair odd

1.40

4.44 GOALS
16.76 0
1.17 1
6.71 2
1.76 3
2.31
CASA 4
3.36 5
1.42 6
7.93 7
1.14 8
5.08 9
1.24 10
6.71
23.88
4.14
14.71
5.10
169.90
18.13
104.67
9.42
1812.83
128.97
33.51
1116.84
11.42
Modelo de Poisson simplificado*

Resultado - Tempo Inteiro

VISITANTE
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
14.89% 4.19% 0.59% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
24.17% 6.80% 0.96% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19.62% 5.52% 0.78% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10.61% 2.98% 0.42% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
4.31% 1.21% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1.40% 0.39% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.38% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
75.49% 21.22% 2.98% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
o*

9 10
0.00% 0.00% 19.73%
0.00% 0.00% 32.02%
0.00% 0.00% 25.99%
0.00% 0.00% 14.06%
0.00% 0.00% 5.71%
0.00% 0.00% 1.85%
0.00% 0.00% 0.50%
0.00% 0.00% 0.12%
0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 100.00%