Manajemen Risiko dalam Pembangkitan Energi
Manajemen Risiko dalam Pembangkitan Energi
Contoh :
Identification of Risks
minimize monitor control
Assessment/Analysis Resources
of Risks
maximize
Realization of opportunities
Priorization of Risks
What is Risk Management
Risk Management Principles :
• Creat Values
• be an integral part of organizational processes
• be pat of decision making process
• be systematic and structured
• be transparent
• be responsive to change
• be capable of continual improvement and enhancement
• be continually or periodically re-assessed
• Fewer Surprises
• Effective Use of
Resources
• Reassuring
Stakeholders
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Risk Management Process can be divided into these 5 (five) key steps :
Risk Management Process can be divided into these 5 (five) key steps :
Risk Management To identify The list of risk is Response is Risk are then
plan specifies the potential risks then analysed, planned for monitored and
management and prepare a using qualitative these risks, controlled
intent, system and list of all risks and quantitative depending
procedures techniques to upon the
required for identify high priority
managing risk priority, medium
priority and low
priority risks
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Step 1
How To Do These
Risk
Risk Analysis Risk Response Risk Monitoring
Identification
1. Plan Risk Management
Planning Risk
Key input Key Outputs
Management
Komunikasi Risiko
• Sebuah proses interaktif pertukaran informasi dan opini
yang berhubungan dengan sifat alamiah risiko dan
manajemen risiko
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1. Plan Risk Management
Konsultasi
• Sebuah proses menginformasikan komunikasi antara organisasi
dengan stakeholdernya terhadap sebuah isu sebelum pengambilan
sebuah keputusan
Karakteristik Konsultasi
• Merupakan sebuah proses bukan hasil
• Dampaknya terhadap sebuah keputusan terlihat melalui pengaruh
bukan kekuasaan (power)
• Merupakan input terhadap pengambilan keputusan dan tidak perlu
merupakan pengambilan keputusan bersama
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1. Plan Risk Management
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Menetapkan Konteks
Proses kunci
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Menetapkan Konteks
Dokumentasi penetapan konteks harus
mengidentifikasi:
– Ruang lingkup aktivitas manajemen risiko berikut hasil
yang diinginkan
– Tujuan organisasi dan KPI-nya
– Berbagai faktor lingkungan internal dan eksternal
– Stakeholder yang relevan
– Kriteria evaluasi risiko
Menetapkan Konteks
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Menetapkan Konteks
People Injuries or ailments Minor injury or First Serious injury Life threatening Death or multiple
not requiring Aid Treatment Case. causing injury or multiple life threatening
medical treatment. hospitalisation or serious injuries injuries.
multiple medical causing
treatment cases. hospitalisation.
Reputation Internal Review Scrutiny required by Scrutiny required by Intense public, Assembly inquiry or
internal committees external committees political and media Commission of
or internal audit to or ACT Auditor scrutiny. Eg: front inquiry or adverse
prevent escalation. General’s Office, or page headlines, TV, national media.
Business Minor errors in Policy procedural One or more key Strategies not Critical system
systems or rule occasionally not accountability consistent with failure, bad policy
Process &
processes requiring met or services do requirements not Government’s advice or ongoing
Systems corrective action, or not fully meet met. Inconvenient agenda. Trends non-compliance.
minor delay without needs. but not client show service is Business severely
impact on overall welfare threatening. degraded. affected.
schedule.
Financial 1% of Budget 2.5% of Budget > 5% of Budget > 10% of Budget >25% of Budget
or <$5K or <$50K or <$500K or <$5M or >$5M
CONSEQUENCES
Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Probability Probability Historical 1 2 3 4 5
5% likely to happen or hasn't >1 in 10 Is expected to occur
Almost
happened within the last 5 years in most E
Certain
M H H VH VH
circumstances
20% likely to happen or has 1 in 10 - 100 Will probably occur
M M H H VH
LIKELIHOOD
Step 2
To identify potensial
risks and prepare a
list of all risks
2. Identify Risks
Once the plan is ini place, identify risks is the first priority step
in actual management of risk. This is the process of identifying
the potential risks, their root cause, and the risk consequences
What is done with the list of risks depends on the nature of the risk.
A few low priority risks may be kept simply as a list of red flag items and
periodically monitored.
• Team-based brainstorming
– Membangun komitmen
– Mempertimbangkan perbedaan perspektif dan
menggabungkan berbagai pengalaman anggota tim
• Structured techniques
– flow charting, system design review, systems analysis,
Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) etc.
– Sebaiknya digunakan jika akibat potensial bersifat
katastropik dan pemakaian pendekatan cost-effective
• What-if and scenario analysis
– Untuk mendefiniskan situasi yang abstrak, seperti pada
risiko stratejik
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2. Identify Risks
Risk Register
• Output of Identify Risks ia a risk register.
• This list down all the risks identified
In the next process these risks are prioritized and action plan is
created to address these risks.
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Step 3
After having the list of potential risks, the next logical step is to
analyze and prioritize risks.
Some risks may need detailed action plan, and some may just
need periodic monitoring. The organization may accept some of
the risks without any action.
In this step, that is analyze risks, we will look at how the risks are
analyzed and prioritized.
3. Analyze Risks
Notes :
This is the process of quantifying the risk events, documented in the
previous step. So the organization can focus on critical risk.
3. Analyze Risks
Qualitative Risk Quantitative
Analysis Risk Analysis
Notes :
For risk analysis, quantitative analysis are conducted. Quantitative risk analysis is a
subjective analysis is probability and impact matrix. We will cover this tool in next few
slides. On the other hand. Quantitative risk analysis is the detailed analysis of the risk.
3. Analyze Risks
Probability and Impact Matrix
Low High
Impact / Impact /
High High
Probability Probability
Probability
Low High
Impact / Impact /
low Low
Probability Probability
Impact
3. Analyze Risks
Probability and Impact Matrix ( I )
[ MATRIK PETA RESIKO ]
1 3 5 7 9
9 9 27 45 63 81
7 7 21 35 49 63
Probability
5 5 15 25 35 45
3 3 9 15 21 27
1 1 3 5 7 9
Impact
3. Analyze Risks
Probability and Impact Matrix ( I )
[ MATRIK PETA RESIKO ]
Impact
3. Analyze Risks
Probability and Impact Matrix ( II )
[ MATRIK PETA RESIKO ]
1 3 5 7 9
9 9 27 45 63 81
7 7 21 35 49 63
Probability
5 5 15 25 35 45
3 3 9 15 21 27
1 1 3 5 7 9
Impact
3. Analyze Risks
Probability and Impact Matrix ( II )
[ MATRIK PETA RESIKO ]
Moderate Moderate High Extreme Extreme
Very high E=5 9
E.1=5 27
E.2=10 E.3=15 E.4=20 E.5=25
Low Mederat High Extreme Extreme
High D=4 D.1=4
21
D.2=8
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D.3=12 D.4=16 D.5=20
Probability
Step 4
Response is
planned for these
risks, depending
upon the priority
4. Plan Risk Response
Responding to Risk
Avoid Exploit
Mitigate Enhance
Transfer Share
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
1. Insurance
2. Performance Warranty Avoid Exploit
3. Outsource O&M to a
reputable O&M Company.
Mitigate Enhance
Transfer Share
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
Accept Accept
4. Plan Risk Response
Mitigate Enhance
Transfer Share
Accept Accept
RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Step 5
Unexpected Risks
Risk Management To identify The list of risk is Response is Risk are then
plan specifies the potential risks then analysed, planned for monitored and
management and prepare a using qualitative these risks, controlled
intent, system and list of all risks and quantitative depending
procedures techniques to upon the
required for identify high priority
managing risk priority, medium
priority and low
priority risks
Analisa Risiko
Proses Kunci
• Menentukan kemungkinan risiko yang akan terjadi
• Menentukan akibat dari risiko
• Menentukan tingkat risiko
• Menentukan kontrol risiko yang eksis
Tipe Analisa
• Kualitatif
• Semi-Kuantitatif
• Kuantitatif
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Evaluasi Risiko
• Membandingkan tingkat risiko yang telah diidentifikasi
pada bahan analisa dengan kriteria yang telah ditetapkan
Tujuan
• Memprioritaskan risiko
• Untuk mengambil keputusan berdasarkan prioritas
– Aktivitas harus dilakukan atau tidak
– Perlakuan terhadap risiko (risk treatment)
– Prioritas perlakuan risiko
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Evaluasi Risiko
Risk Level Acceptability Management Response
LOW RISK Acceptable with [Link] monitoring and review with Total Management Plan
existing control (TMP)
[Link] by routine procedure
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Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Enterprise risk management (ERM) is
the leading approach to managing and optimizing risks,
enabling a company to determine how much
uncertainty and risk are acceptable to an organization.
Establish co-dependency between the ERM initiative and considerations for capital
market reporting disclosures and other laws and regulations. (Tetapkan keterkaitan
antara inisiatif ERM dan pertimbangan pengungkapan pelaporan pasar modal dan
peraturan perundang-undangan lainnya)
requirements
PENINJ AUAN
KONSULTASI
3. Menjadi bagian dalam pengambilan
Perencanaan
keputusan kerangka Kerja Kajian Risiko
4. Mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian untuk pengelolaan
yang mempengaruhi pengambilan risiko IDENTIFIKASI RISIKO
keputusan
5. Sistematis, terstruktur, dan tepat
DAN
DAN
waktu ANALISIS RISIKO
6. Berdasarkan data informasi yang Pengembangan Penerapan
terbaik berkelanjutan Manajemen
PEMANTAUAN
KOMUNIKASI
kerangka kerja Risiko
7. Disesuaikan dengan kondisi
Perusahaan EVALUASI RISIKO
8. Mempertimbangkan faktor manusia
dan budaya di dalam Perusahaan
9. Transparan, up to date, dan inklusif Pemantauan dan
10. Dinamis, iteratif, dan tanggap peninjauan PENANGANAN RISIKO
terhadap perubahan kerangka kerja
11. Mengupayakan tindak perbaikan
1/31/2019
berkelanjutan dalam Perusahaan
Elemen Pokok Manajemen Risiko
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The Internal Context
· The External Context
· The Risk Management Context
· Develop Criteria
· Define the Structure
Elemen Pokok:
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?
· When and Where? – Komunikasi dan Konsultasi
· How and Why
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
– Menetapkan Konteks
RISK ASSESSMENT
Treat
– Pengelolaan Risiko
Risks?
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Topic covered
1. APA ITU RISK
2. APA ITU RISK MANAJEMEN
3. LANGKAH RISK MANAJEMEN
• Rencana RISK MANAJEMEN
• Identifikasi RESIKO
• Analisa RESIKO
• Evaluasi RESIKO
• Mengelola RESIKO (Rencana TANGGAPAN THD
RESIKO)
• Memonitor dan Pengontrolan RESIKO
4. ENTRPRICE RISK MANAGEMENT (ERM)
5. APA ITU ISO 31000 ?
Pengelolaan Risiko
Pengelolaan Risiko membutuhkan :
– Identifikasi threats dan opportunities
– Pemikiran yang teliti
– Pemikiran kedepan
– Akuntabilitas dalam pengambilan keputusan
– Komunikasi
– Pemikiran yang seimbang anatara cost dan benefit
Preminse :
You can’t manage it if you can’t measure it.
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Pengelolaan Risiko
Tujuan
– Untuk mengidentifikasi berbagi pilihan untuk pengelolaan risiko,
mengkaji pilihan yang dipilih, dan menyiapkan implementasi
rencana pengelolaan.
Proses Kunci
– Mengidentifikasi pilihan untuk pengelolaan risiko
– Mengkaji pilihan pengelolaan risiko
– Menyiapkan dan mengimplementasikan rencana pengelolaan
risiko
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Pengelolaan Risiko
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Pemantauan dan Peninjauan
• Pemantauan memberikan pengwasan rutin terhadap performa aktual untuk
dibandingkan dengan performa yang diperlukan / diharapkan
• Peninjauan (Review) melibatkan investigasi periodik dari situasi saat ini, periodic
investigation of the current situation, usually with a specific focus.
• Proses penjaminan dan pemantauan harus kontinyu dan dinamis
Prioritas pemantauan:
• High risks.
• Startegi pengelolaan kegagalan yang kredibel, terutama kegagalan yang memiliki
akibat mayor / katastropik atau kegagalan yang sering terjadi
• Risiko yang memiliki risiko resiual yang tinggi
• Teknologi alternatif yang lebih efektif atau dapat menurunkan biaya dari
pengelolaan risiko saat ini
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