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Analisis Statistik Ekonomi Indonesia 2018-2021

Dokumen ini berisi tugas tutorial mengenai statistika ekonomi yang mencakup analisis pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan negara maju, perhitungan kuartil dari data saham, serta pembuatan persamaan regresi dari data yang diberikan. Tugas mencakup perhitungan simpangan baku, koefisien variasi, dan koefisien korelasi. Hasil menunjukkan nilai simpangan baku dan koefisien variasi untuk masing-masing negara serta kuartil dan persamaan regresi dari data yang dianalisis.

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hendra.armahar
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6 tayangan6 halaman

Analisis Statistik Ekonomi Indonesia 2018-2021

Dokumen ini berisi tugas tutorial mengenai statistika ekonomi yang mencakup analisis pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan negara maju, perhitungan kuartil dari data saham, serta pembuatan persamaan regresi dari data yang diberikan. Tugas mencakup perhitungan simpangan baku, koefisien variasi, dan koefisien korelasi. Hasil menunjukkan nilai simpangan baku dan koefisien variasi untuk masing-masing negara serta kuartil dan persamaan regresi dari data yang dianalisis.

Diunggah oleh

hendra.armahar
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TUGAS TUTORIAL 2

STATISTIKA EKONOMI ESPA4123

Hendra Armadhan H.
NIM : 053075293

UNIVERSITAS TERBUKA 2025


Soal 1
Berikut adalah data perbandingan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara Indonesia dan salah
satu Negara Maju dari tahun 2018-2021. Hitunglah simpangan baku sampel (s) dan
koefisien variasi dari masing-masing negara tersebut.
Petumbuhan Ekonomi
(%)
Tahun
Negara Indonesia
Maju
2018 2,6 8,2
2019 3,2 4,9
2020 2,0 4,8
2021 2,1 3,2

JAWABAN :

x=
∑x
n
2.6+2.3+2.0+ 4.8 11.7
x negaramaju = = =2.925
4 4
8.2+5.0+ 4.8+2.4 20.4
x Indonesia = = =5.1
4 4

Simpangan baku sampel :


s= √∑ ¿¿ ¿ ¿
Selisih nilai
x i−x negaramaju

¿ s Negara Maju =
√ 4.8675
4−1
=√ 1.6225=127.3

x i−x Indonesia

¿ s Negara Maju =
√ 17
4−1
= √ 5.6=2.36

Koefisien Variasi (CV)


8
CV = Χ 100 %
x
1.273
C V Negara Maju = Χ 100 % ≈ 43.51 %
2.925

2.381
C V Indonesia= Χ 100 % ≈ 46.69 %
5.1

Simpangan baku sampel (s)


S Negara Maju ≈ 1.273
S Indonesia ≈ 2.381

Kefisien Variasi (CV)


CV Negara Maju ≈ 43.51 %
CV Indonesia ≈ 46.69 %

Soal 2
Hitunglah Kuartil 1, Kuartil 2 dan Kuartil 3 dari data yang sudah dikelompokkan pada
kasus 20 saham pilihan bulan Juni 2021 di BEI.
Interval Frekuensi
160-303 2
304-447 5
448-591 9
592-735 3
736-878 1

JAWABAN :
Total frekuensi
N=2+ 5+9+3+1=20
untuk kuartil 1 (Q1), kuartil 2 (Q2), dan Kuartil 3 (Q3) kita menggunakan rumus kuartil
pada data kelompok sebagai berikut :

( )
k∙ N
4
Qk =L+ ∙c
Fk
L : Batas bawah kelas kuartil
k : Kuartil ke-1, ke-2, atauke-3(1,2 atau 3)
N : Total frekuensi
F : Frekuensi kumulatif sebelum kelas kuartil
f k : Frekuensi kelas kuartil
C : Panjang kelas interval

1. Kuartil 1 (Q1)
1∙ N 20
letak kuartil 1= = =5
4 4
F kumulatif :2+5=7

2. Kuartil 2 (Q2)
2∙ N 40
letak kuartil 2= = =10
4 4
F kumulatif :2+5+ 9=16

3. Kuartil 3 (Q3)
3 ∙ N 60
letak kuartil 3= = =15
4 4

hitung setiap kuartil


( )
k∙ N
4
Qk =L+ ∙c
fk

Untuk kelas 304-447 :


L = 304 (batas bawah kelas kedua)
F =2 (frekuensi kumulatif sebelum kelas kedua)
f k = 5 (frekuensi kelas kedua)

c=447−304=143

Panjang kelas
Q1=304 + ( )
5−2
5
∙ 143
Q1=304 +85.8=389.8

Untuk kelas 448-591 :


L = 448 (batas bawah kelas ketiga)
F =7 (frekuensi kumulatif sebelum kelas ketiga)
f k = 9 (frekuensi kelas ketiga)

c=591−448=143
Q3=448+ (
15−7
5 )
∙ 143
Q3=448+127.11=575.11

Soal 3
Perhatikan data berikut.
x y
1 1
3 2
4 4
6 4
8 5
9 7
11 8
14 9

a. Buatlah persamaan regresi dari data di atas.


b. Tentukan nilai koefisien korelasi dan koefisien determinasinya.

JAWABAN :
persamaan regresi linear sederhana :
y=α + βx

Menghitung nilai α dan β


n ∑ ( xy )−∑ x ∑ y
β= ≈ 0.487
n ∑ x 2− ( ∑ x )
2

α=
∑ y −β ∑ x
n ( )
n
≈ 4.004

y=4.004+ 0.487 x

Koefisien relasi (r) r = -


( 7 x 303 )−(41 x 48)
r=
√ [ 314 x 510−(41) ] ¿ ¿ ¿
2

2 2
r ¿(0.382) =0.146 ≈ 0.146 %

Common questions

Didukung oleh AI

Calculating the standard deviation and coefficient of variation helps in understanding the variability and relative volatility of economic growth rates between the two countries. The standard deviation provides a measure of how much the growth rates deviate from their respective means, while the coefficient of variation normalizes this measure relative to the mean, allowing for direct comparison between entities with different average growth rates. According to the data, Indonesia had a higher coefficient of variation (46.69%) compared to the developed country (43.51%). This indicates that Indonesia's economic growth was relatively more volatile compared to the developed country over the given period.

Considering both the mean and variability measures like standard deviation is crucial in economic data analysis because the mean provides a central trend, while variability measures offer insights into data dispersion around the mean. The mean alone can be misleading if the data are highly variable, as it does not reflect fluctuations. Standard deviation reveals insights into potential risks and reliability of economic performance. In the comparison of Indonesia and a developed country, diversity in growth trends underscores differing economic dynamics and stability levels, evidenced by the standard deviations of 2.381 for Indonesia and 1.273 for the developed country .

Indonesia's higher standard deviation in economic growth compared to a developed country indicates greater variability in its growth rates. This suggests that Indonesia's economy experienced larger fluctuations in growth over the period from 2018 to 2021. Such variability can result from multiple factors including economic instability, changes in government policies, or external economic shocks. Contrarily, the developed country's lower standard deviation reflects a steadier growth pattern and possibly more robust mechanisms for managing economic fluctuations .

Quartiles are effective in assessing stock price distribution because they delineate the data set into distinct segments, highlighting its spread and variance. By identifying the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, quartiles provide insights into both the central tendency and the extremities of stock prices. This method is particularly useful for revealing the range and middle trends in stock prices, which can aid in investment analysis and risk management strategies. In the June 2021 stock data, the quartiles help ascertain the concentration and outliers of stock prices, which assist investors in making informed decisions .

The coefficient of determination (r^2) quantifies how well the regression model explains the variability of the dependent variable (y) relative to the independent variable (x). An r^2 value of approximately 0.146 implies that only about 14.6% of the variability in y is explained by x, suggesting that other factors might be contributing to changes in y. This relatively low r^2 indicates a weak explanatory power of the regression model, highlighting the necessity to examine additional variables or nonlinear relationships to better capture the dynamics between x and y .

A developed country might have a lower coefficient of variation compared to a developing country like Indonesia due to more stable economic conditions and diversified economic activities that reduce the impact of economic fluctuations. Developed countries often have established financial systems, infrastructure, and policy frameworks that can buffer against external economic shocks, leading to more consistent growth rates. On the other hand, developing countries might experience greater economic volatility due to reliance on a narrower economic base, policy changes, or external factors like commodity prices. This is reflected in the data as Indonesia had a higher coefficient of variation (46.69%) than the developed country (43.51%).

Quartiles from grouped data are calculated using the formula Qk = L + [(k*N/4 - F)/fk]*c, where L is the lower class boundary of the quartile class, N is the total frequency, F is the cumulative frequency of classes preceding the quartile class, fk is the frequency of the quartile class, and c is the class width. Quartiles are important because they provide insights into the distribution of data, highlighting the spread and central tendencies within data sets. In the given dataset, the first quartile (Q1) was found to be 389.8, indicating that 25% of the data falls below this value, while the third quartile (Q3) was 575.11, showing that 75% of the data fell below this value .

It is important to use both regression lines and correlation coefficients to understand fully the relationship between two variables because each provides unique insights. The regression line offers a predictive model to estimate the dependent variable based on the independent variable, while the correlation coefficient quantifies the strength and direction of their linear relationship. Without both elements, conclusions may be incomplete or misleading; for example, a strong correlation might not imply a significant regression line if the relationship is not linear, and vice versa. The dataset example with an r ≈ 0.382 demonstrates moderate linear correlation, while the regression line y = 4.004 + 0.487x offers a concrete predictive model .

The regression equation y = 4.004 + 0.487x indicates that for each unit increase in x, y is expected to increase by 0.487 units, starting from a base level of 4.004 when x is zero. The equation suggests a linear relationship where changes in x directly and proportionally affect changes in y. This model facilitates predictions of y values from known x values, helping to assess the strength and direction of their association. The slope of 0.487 implies moderate responsiveness of y to changes in x .

Regression analysis and correlation coefficients are critical for understanding and quantifying the relationship between two variables. A regression equation, such as y = 4.004 + 0.487x, provides a model to predict the dependent variable based on the independent variable. The correlation coefficient (r) measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship, with values close to -1 or 1 indicating strong inverse or direct relationships, respectively. In the provided data, a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.382 suggests a moderate positive relationship, and the coefficient of determination (r^2 ≈ 0.146) indicates that approximately 14.6% of the variance in y can be explained by x .

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