SocialPredict lets anyone – individuals, classrooms, companies, and even governments – tap into the power of prediction markets.

• Kenyon College (Political Science course PSCI 303, Campaigns & Elections; syllabus here)

SocialPredict is available under the MIT License.

We’re building SocialPredict as the best free prediction-market infrastructure you can run yourself — today and into the future.

flowchart LR

    classDef roadmap fill:#dbeafe,stroke:#1d4ed8,color:#111827,stroke-width:2px;

    Y2025["🧩 Service Architecture<br/>2025"]
    Y2026["🧱 Microservices & Math<br/>2026"]
    Y2027["☁️ Cloud & UX<br/>2027"]
    Y2030["🚀 HPC & Analytics<br/>2028–2030"]

    Y2025 --> Y2026 --> Y2027 --> Y2030

    class Y2025,Y2026,Y2027,Y2030 roadmap

Check out our staging instance at kconfs.com to see the newest main branch deployment in action. This environment may be reset, load tested, or temporarily unavailable while we test deployment and capacity changes.

Our model office / production-style release target is brierfoxforecast.com. This environment is intended to track published releases rather than every merge to main.

SocialPredict now supports a moderator-driven market workflow. Approved moderators can propose markets, while admins retain final publishing control. Proposed markets are not tradable until an admin approves them.

Highlights:

• Moderator approval/status management
• Proposed, published, and rejected market lifecycle states
• Proposal cost accounting and refund behavior for rejected proposals
• Moderator profile tabs for proposed, published, and rejected markets
• Admin review queues for proposed, approved, and rejected markets
• Full market descriptions and custom YES/NO labels shown during review

Screenshot placeholder: moderator profile with proposed/published/rejected market tabs

Screenshot placeholder: admin market review queue showing custom labels and full description controls

Admins have expanded operational controls for reviewing users, reviewing proposed markets, stewarding market operations, organizing market discovery, and managing public sharing metadata.

Highlights:

• Admin user queue for moderator eligibility/status review
• Market review tools with approval, rejection, review trail, and refund behavior
• Market stewardship reassignment so admins can move operational responsibility from a suspended or unavailable moderator to another active moderator
• Admin-managed market tags, topic navigation, market pins, and market discovery layout controls
• CMS-managed social share title, description, image, and image-enable setting
• Default OpenGraph/social share image support

Screenshot placeholder: admin dashboard user queue

Screenshot placeholder: admin market discovery layout / tag management

Screenshot placeholder: admin social share / CMS settings tab

Market discovery has moved beyond a flat market list. Admin-managed tags and market discovery layout controls now support topic navigation, pinned markets, and tag-filtered topic pages while keeping search as the primary entry point.

Highlights:

• Admin-managed tags shown on market creation, admin review, market lists, and market detail pages
• /markets topic navigation with persistent tag/category pins
• Tag-filtered secondary pages under /markets/topic/:slug
• Pinned market cards for curated discovery
• Infinite-scroll market lists for /markets and topic pages
• Search and pagination improvements for admin market review and user/moderator queues

Screenshot placeholder: /markets page with topic navigation and pinned market cards

Screenshot placeholder: topic page filtered by tag/category

Market pages now have a stronger sharing foundation, including OpenGraph and Twitter card metadata for link previews. The embeddable-market feature plan is documented so individual markets can be shared and embedded more cleanly as that work continues.

Highlights:

• Market-aware OpenGraph metadata
• Social share image endpoint and default image
• Security-header updates needed for controlled embedding
• Feature planning for iframe-friendly market embeds

Screenshot placeholder: market detail page with share preview or social card validation

Market governance now includes clearer controls around who can operate a market after it is published and how contract-like text can be clarified.

Highlights:

• Immutable market titles with additive-only description amendments
• Moderator/steward amendment proposal queues with admin pending/approved/rejected review
• Optional admin auto-approval for market proposals and amendments
• Suspended moderators lose market-creation/governance capabilities
• Current stewards, not necessarily original creators, can govern and resolve assigned markets
• Thresholded moderator work-profit payouts after successful market resolution
• User financial reporting for moderator work profits

Screenshot placeholder: market page showing description amendments

Screenshot placeholder: admin amendment review queue

The backend now has a stronger performance boundary between transaction-time math and display/read-model data.

Highlights:

• Display-oriented market accounting snapshots for volume, dust, probability, participants, and chart data
• Cached/read-model paths for system metrics, user financial metrics, market cards, leaderboards, and market widgets
• Freshness messaging for cached display widgets
• Pagination for market bets, positions, market leaderboards, global leaderboard, and market lists
• Boundary tests to keep snapshots out of buy/sell/resolution transaction paths

The repository now includes an external load-testing harness under loadtest/. It uses k6 from a separate load-generator machine and can seed remote staging fixtures, pull fixture CSVs, run smoke/baseline/hot-market tests, and capture host telemetry through HostOps.

Current capacity evidence is summarized in the staging load-test dossier, the large Basic AMD experiment notebook, and the capacity forecast dossier.

Highlights:

• k6 smoke, baseline, hot-market burst, and soak scenarios
• Remote staging fixture seeding and fixture pull commands
• Host telemetry capture for CPU, RAM, disk, network, Docker, backend, Postgres, and Traefik
• Host profile capture to record the exact tested Droplet shape and Docker/container limits
• Release dossier tooling for turning load-test results into reviewable evidence

Example dossier: Staging Capacity Dossier, 2026-05-29. Look for the most recent dossier before making deployment or sizing decisions, because capacity results depend on the exact release, host size, database topology, and rate-limit configuration under test.

Latest forecast note: Capacity Forecast Dossier, 2026-06-02 records the strongest current sustained hot-market result as 250 bets/sec for 5m on a single-node DigitalOcean Basic AMD 8 vCPU / 32 GiB RAM host, while 300 bets/sec for 5m is not yet a clean supported target.

• Info on Local Setup
• Info on How Economics Can Be Customized
• Development fixture helpers are available through ./SocialPredict dev-bootstrap-users for local smoke testing.

• How to Set Up Your Own Website
• HostOps Scaffold and Infra Boundary Notes
• Staging Deployment Guide
• Production Deployment Guide

OpenPredictionMarkets deployment conventions:

• Merges to main deploy staging at kconfs.com.
• Published GitHub releases deploy the model office / production-style target at brierfoxforecast.com.
• GitHub Actions dispatch Ansible-based deploys and then verify public /health and /readyz.
• HostOps is a local convenience wrapper for host SSH, environment discovery, disk checks, cleanup, and load-test telemetry support.

• Canonical Backend API documentation
• Load Testing Guide
• Load Test CLI Runbook
• Current Staging Capacity Dossier
• Capacity Forecast Dossier

Here's a quick primer about how (and why) prediction markets work. Want more info? We maintain a list of resources where you can see research on prediction markets in action.

We welcome and appreciate every contribution. Get started by reading our guide and make sure to follow our Code of Conduct.

• Brush up on our Development Conventions
• Review the canonical Backend API documentation
• Check out our ongoing Projects
• Look at our Issues
• Have your say on GitHub Discussions