PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO

VENTAS
SEMANAS PROMEDIO MAD PMS3 PROMEDIO
REALES
MOVIL 3 MOVIL 5
1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 1,066.67 433.33
5 1500 1,300.00 200.00
6 1300 1,333.33 33.33 1240
7 1800 1,433.33 366.67 1340
8 1700 1,533.33 166.67 1420
9 1300 1,600.00 300.00 1560
10 1700 1,600.00 100.00 1520
11 1700 1,566.67 133.33 1560
12 1500 1,566.67 66.67 1640
13 2300 1,633.33 666.67 1580
14 2300 1,833.33 466.67 1700
15 2000 2,033.33 33.33 1900
16 1700 2,200.00 500.00 1960
17 1800 2,000.00 200.00 1960
18 2200 1,833.33 366.67 2020
19 1900 1,900.00 - 2000
20 2400 1,966.67 433.33 1920
21 2400 2,166.67 233.33 2000
22 2600 2,233.33 366.67 2140
23 2000 2,466.67 466.67 2300
24 2500 2,333.33 166.67 2260
25 2600 2,366.67 233.33 2380
26 2200 2,366.67 166.67 2420
27 2200 2,433.33 233.33 2380
28 2500 2,333.33 166.67 2300
29 2400 2,300.00 100.00 2400
30 2100 2,366.67 266.67 2380
31 2,333.33 254.32 2,280.00
pms 3 MAD pms 5

31 2,333.33 254.32 2,280.00 254.40 2279.91

60
460
280
260
180 1,366.67 333.33
140 1,466.67 233.33
140 1,500.00 -
720 1,555.56 744.44
600 1,644.44 655.56
100 1,733.33 266.67
260 1,811.11 111.11
160 1,800.00 -
180 1,811.11 388.89
100 1,911.11 11.11
480 1,933.33 466.67
400 2,011.11 388.89
460 2,111.11 488.89
300 2,144.44 144.44
240 2,111.11 388.89
220 2,166.67 433.33
220 2,266.67 66.67
180 2,311.11 111.11
200 2,311.11 188.89
0 2,377.78 22.22
280 2,377.78 277.78
264.80 2,344.44 272.49
MAD pms 9 MAD

293.30
MAD
 PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO
VENTAS PROMEDIO PROMEDIO
SEMANAS MAD PMP3 MAD PMP5
REALES MOVIL MOVIL
PONDERADO 3 PONDERADO 5
1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 1,100.00 400.00
5 1500 1,316.67 183.33
6 1300 1,416.67 116.67 1,340.00 40.00
7 1800 1,400.00 400.00 1,360.00 440.00
8 1700 1,583.33 116.67 1,513.33 186.67
9 1300 1,666.67 366.67 1,606.67 306.67
10 1700 1,516.67 183.33 1,520.00 180.00
11 1700 1,566.67 133.33 1,580.00 120.00
12 1500 1,633.33 133.33 1,626.67 126.67
13 2300 1,600.00 700.00 1,580.00 720.00
14 2300 1,933.33 366.67 1,820.00 480.00
15 2000 2,166.67 166.67 2,020.00 20.00
16 1700 2,150.00 450.00 2,053.33 353.33
17 1800 1,900.00 100.00 1,966.67 166.67
18 2200 1,800.00 400.00 1,913.33 286.67
19 1900 1,983.33 83.33 1,973.33 73.33
20 2400 1,983.33 416.67 1,940.00 460.00
21 2400 2,200.00 200.00 2,100.00 300.00
22 2600 2,316.67 283.33 2,233.33 366.67
23 2000 2,500.00 500.00 2,386.67 386.67
24 2500 2,266.67 233.33 2,286.67 213.33
25 2600 2,350.00 250.00 2,366.67 233.33
26 2200 2,466.67 266.67 2,440.00 240.00
27 2200 2,383.33 183.33 2,366.67 166.67
28 2500 2,266.67 233.33 2,306.67 193.33
29 2400 2,350.00 50.00 2,373.33 26.67
30 2100 2,400.00 300.00 2,373.33 273.33
31 2,266.67 267.28 2,280.00 254.40
MAD MAD
 PRONOSTICO
PROMEDIO
MAD PMP9 PMP3 MAD PMP3
MOVIL
PONDERADO 9
1 110
2 130
3 150
4 170 136.7 33.3
5 160 156.7 3.3
6 180 161.7 18.3
7 140 171.7 31.7
8 130 156.7 26.7
9 140 141.7 1.7
1,462.22 237.78 10 136.7 19.17
1,528.89 171.11
1,575.56 75.56
1,575.56 724.44
1,724.44 575.56
1,855.56 144.44
1,908.89 208.89
1,886.67 86.67
1,886.67 313.33
1,964.44 64.44
1,962.22 437.78
2,055.56 344.44
2,133.33 466.67
2,231.11 231.11
2,202.22 297.78
2,280.00 320.00
2,366.67 166.67
2,353.33 153.33
2,331.11 168.89
2,368.89 31.11
2,373.33 273.33
2,317.78 261.59
MAD
MAD PMP4 PMP4

10.0 150
22.0 158
29.0 169
29.0 159
6.0 146
19.20 141
 VENTAS
SEMANAS PRONOSTICO MAD
REALES
1 800 850 50.00 1 110
2 1400 840 560.00 2 130
3 1000 952 48.00 3 150
4 1500 961.60 538.40 4 170
5 1500 1069.28 430.72 5 160
6 1300 1155.42 144.58 6 180
7 1800 1184.34 615.66 7 140
8 1700 1307.47 392.53 8 130
9 1300 1385.98 85.98 9 140
10 1700 1368.78 331.22 10
11 1700 1435.03 264.97
12 1500 1488.02 11.98
13 2300 1490.42 809.58
14 2300 1652.33 647.67
15 2000 1781.87 218.13
16 1700 1825.49 125.49
17 1800 1800.39 0.39
18 2200 1800.32 399.68
19 1900 1880.25 19.75
20 2400 1884.20 515.80
21 2400 1987.36 412.64
22 2600 2069.89 530.11
23 2000 2175.91 175.91
24 2500 2140.73 359.27
25 2600 2212.58 387.42
26 2200 2290.07 90.07
27 2200 2272.05 72.05
28 2500 2257.64 242.36
29 2400 2306.11 93.89
30 2100 2324.89 224.89
31 2279.91 293.30
MAD
 115 35.0
125.5 44.5
138.9 21.2
145.2 34.8
155.6 15.6
150.9 20.9
144.7 4.7
143.3 25.2
 VENTAS
SEMANAS
REALES
X Y XY X² Y = 1201.38+ 45.72X DIFERENCIA DIF²
1 800 800 1 1,247.10 - 447.10 199,895.53
2 1400 2800 4 1,292.81 107.19 11,488.79
3 1000 3000 9 1,338.53 - 338.53 114,603.71
4 1500 6000 16 1,384.25 115.75 13,398.26
5 1500 7500 25 1,429.97 70.03 4,904.67
6 1300 7800 36 1,475.68 - 175.68 30,864.90
7 1800 12600 49 1,521.40 278.60 77,617.09
8 1700 13600 64 1,567.12 132.88 17,657.35
9 1300 11700 81 1,612.84 - 312.84 97,866.67
10 1700 17000 100 1,658.55 41.45 1,717.78
11 1700 18700 121 1,704.27 - 4.27 18.24
12 1500 18000 144 1,749.99 - 249.99 62,494.44
13 2300 29900 169 1,795.71 504.29 254,312.10
14 2300 32200 196 1,841.42 458.58 210,292.13
15 2000 30000 225 1,887.14 112.86 12,737.09
16 1700 27200 256 1,932.86 - 232.86 54,223.19
17 1800 30600 289 1,978.58 - 178.58 31,889.46
18 2200 39600 324 2,024.29 175.71 30,872.72
19 1900 36100 361 2,070.01 - 170.01 28,903.78
20 2400 48000 400 2,115.73 284.27 80,810.24
21 2400 50400 441 2,161.45 238.55 56,907.99
22 2600 57200 484 2,207.16 392.84 154,320.50
23 2000 46000 529 2,252.88 - 252.88 63,948.79
24 2500 60000 576 2,298.60 201.40 40,562.59
25 2600 65000 625 2,344.32 255.68 65,374.36
26 2200 57200 676 2,390.03 - 190.03 36,112.68
27 2200 59400 729 2,435.75 - 235.75 55,578.46
28 2500 70000 784 2,481.47 18.53 343.42
29 2400 69600 841 2,527.19 - 127.19 16,176.22
30 2100 63000 900 2,572.90 - 472.90 223,637.46
465.00 57,300.00 990,900.00 9,455.00 2,049,530.59
ΣX ΣY ΣXY ΣX² ΣDIF²
15.50 1,910.00
media X media Y
n 30 1,910.00 MENOS 45.72

990,900.00 MENOS 30

9,455.00 MENOS 30

b 45.72
Syx 270.55
Y31 2,618.62

15.50 1,201.38 a

15.50 1,910.00 102,750.00

15.50 15.50 2,247.50