TRABAJO FINAL DE EVIDENCIAS DE APRENDIZAJE

Carlos Daza Tolis

Carlos Eduardo Lopez
Lady Tatiana Soriano

Diego Rozo

Producción

Universidad Militar Nueva Granada

Facultad Ciencias Economicas
 Referencias

Scribd (2020); Caso 2 Yankee Fork and Hoe Company. PDF.

[Link]

Jhon E. [Link] Learning. Pronosticos en los [Link] Learning.

[Link]
Company
MES AÑO 1 AÑO 2 AÑO 3 AÑO 4
1 55,200 39,875 32,180 62,337
2 57,350 64,128 38,600 66,501
3 15,445 47,653 25,020 31,404
4 27,776 43,050 51,300 36,504
5 21,408 39,359 31,790 16,888
6 17,118 10,317 32,100 18,909
7 18,028 45,194 59,832 35,500
8 19,883 46,530 30,740 51,250
9 15,796 22,105 47,800 34,443
10 53,665 41,350 73,890 68,088
11 83,269 46,024 60,202 68,175
12 72,991 41,856 55,200 61,100
SUMATORIA 457,929 487,441 538,654 551,099
PROMEDIO POR MES 38,161 40,620 44,888 45,925
MES AÑO 1 Pronostico - Y^t Pronostico Ajustado Error - et
1 55,200
2 57,350
3 15,445 56,275 56,275 - 40,830
4 27,776 42,665 42,665 - 14,889
5 21,408 38,943 38,943 - 17,535
6 17,118 35,436 35,436 - 18,318
7 18,028 32,383 32,383 - 14,355
8 19,883 30,332 30,332 - 10,449
9 15,796 29,026 29,026 - 13,230
10 53,665 27,556 27,556 26,109
11 83,269 30,167 30,167 53,102
12 72,991 34,994 34,994 37,997
13 39,875 38,161 38,161 1,714
14 64,128 38,293 38,293 25,835
15 47,653 40,138 40,138 7,515
16 43,050 40,639 40,639 2,411
17 39,359 40,790 40,790 - 1,431
18 10,317 40,706 40,706 - 30,389
19 45,194 39,017 39,017 6,177
20 46,530 39,342 39,342 7,188
21 22,105 39,702 39,702 - 17,597
22 41,350 38,864 38,864 2,486
23 46,024 38,977 38,977 7,047
24 41,856 39,283 39,283 2,573
25 32,180 39,390 39,390 - 7,210
26 38,600 39,102 39,102 - 502
27 25,020 39,083 39,083 - 14,063
28 51,300 38,562 38,562 12,738
29 31,790 39,017 39,017 - 7,227
30 32,100 38,768 38,768 - 6,668
31 59,832 38,545 38,545 21,287
32 30,740 39,232 39,232 - 8,492
33 47,800 38,967 38,967 8,833
34 73,890 39,234 39,234 34,656
35 60,202 40,254 40,254 19,948
36 55,200 40,824 40,824 14,376
37 62,337 41,223 41,223 21,114
38 66,501 41,794 41,794 24,707
39 31,404 42,444 42,444 - 11,040
40 36,504 42,161 42,161 - 5,657
41 16,888 42,019 42,019 - 25,131
42 18,909 41,406 41,406 - 22,497
43 35,500 40,871 40,871 - 5,371
44 51,250 40,746 40,746 10,504
45 34,443 40,984 40,984 - 6,541
46 68,088 40,839 40,839 27,249
47 68,175 41,431 41,431 26,744
48 61,100 42,000 42,000 19,100
Pronostico 42,398
TOTAL
MAD 15,670
MAPE 50%
[et] et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt

40,830 1,667,088,900 2.644 - 2.644

14,889 221,682,321 0.536 - 0.536
17,535 307,467,458 0.819 - 0.819
18,318 335,541,797 1.070 - 1.070
14,355 206,061,240 0.796 - 0.796
10,449 109,184,586 0.526 - 0.526
13,230 175,032,900 0.838 - 0.838
26,109 681,679,881 0.487 0.487
53,102 2,819,833,024 0.638 0.638
37,997 1,443,744,375 0.521 0.521
1,714 2,938,653 0.043 0.043
25,835 667,467,098 0.403 0.403
7,515 56,475,225 0.158 0.158
2,411 5,812,921 0.056 0.056
1,431 2,046,867 0.036 - 0.036
30,389 923,462,720 2.945 - 2.945
6,177 38,151,897 0.137 0.137
7,188 51,662,048 0.154 0.154
17,597 309,645,611 0.796 - 0.796
2,486 6,181,143 0.060 0.060
7,047 49,662,772 0.153 0.153
2,573 6,619,210 0.061 0.061
7,210 51,990,109 0.224 - 0.224
502 252,004 0.013 - 0.013
14,063 197,759,315 0.562 - 0.562
12,738 162,260,418 0.248 0.248
7,227 52,226,432 0.227 - 0.227
6,668 44,456,706 0.208 - 0.208
21,287 453,122,178 0.356 0.356
8,492 72,114,064 0.276 - 0.276
8,833 78,028,514 0.185 0.185
34,656 1,201,017,332 0.469 0.469
19,948 397,939,132 0.331 0.331
14,376 206,682,520 0.260 0.260
21,114 445,805,688 0.339 0.339
24,707 610,458,553 0.372 0.372
11,040 121,875,790 0.352 - 0.352
5,657 31,997,878 0.155 - 0.155
25,131 631,579,727 1.488 - 1.488
22,497 506,128,178 1.190 - 1.190
5,371 28,843,805 0.151 - 0.151
10,504 110,339,390 0.205 0.205
6,541 42,790,925 0.190 - 0.190
27,249 742,501,946 0.400 0.400
26,744 715,215,955 0.392 0.392
19,100 364,791,307 0.313 0.313
MES AÑO 1 Pronostico - Y^t
Pronostico ajustado
Error - et [et]
1 55,200
2 57,350
3 15,445
4 27,776
5 21,408 38,943 38,943 - 17,535 17,535
6 17,118 30,495 30,495 - 13,377 13,377
7 18,028 20,437 20,437 - 2,409 2,409
8 19,883 21,083 21,083 - 1,200 1,200
9 15,796 19,109 19,109 - 3,313 3,313
10 53,665 17,706 17,706 35,959 35,959
11 83,269 26,843 26,843 56,426 56,426
12 72,991 43,153 43,153 29,838 29,838
13 39,875 56,430 56,430 - 16,555 16,555
14 64,128 62,450 62,450 1,678 1,678
15 47,653 65,066 65,066 - 17,413 17,413
16 43,050 56,162 56,162 - 13,112 13,112
17 39,359 48,677 48,677 - 9,318 9,318
18 10,317 48,548 48,548 - 38,231 38,231
19 45,194 35,095 35,095 10,099 10,099
20 46,530 34,480 34,480 12,050 12,050
21 22,105 35,350 35,350 - 13,245 13,245
22 41,350 31,037 31,037 10,314 10,314
23 46,024 38,795 38,795 7,229 7,229
24 41,856 39,002 39,002 2,854 2,854
25 32,180 37,834 37,834 - 5,654 5,654
26 38,600 40,353 40,353 - 1,753 1,753
27 25,020 39,665 39,665 - 14,645 14,645
28 51,300 34,414 34,414 16,886 16,886
29 31,790 36,775 36,775 - 4,985 4,985
30 32,100 36,678 36,678 - 4,578 4,578
31 59,832 35,053 35,053 24,780 24,780
32 30,740 43,756 43,756 - 13,016 13,016
33 47,800 38,616 38,616 9,185 9,185
34 73,890 42,618 42,618 31,272 31,272
35 60,202 53,066 53,066 7,137 7,137
36 55,200 53,158 53,158 2,042 2,042
37 62,337 59,273 59,273 3,064 3,064
38 66,501 62,907 62,907 3,594 3,594
39 31,404 61,060 61,060 - 29,656 29,656
40 36,504 53,861 53,861 - 17,357 17,357
41 16,888 49,187 49,187 - 32,299 32,299
42 18,909 37,824 37,824 - 18,915 18,915
43 35,500 25,926 25,926 9,574 9,574
44 51,250 26,950 26,950 24,300 24,300
45 34,443 30,637 30,637 3,806 3,806
46 68,088 35,026 35,026 33,063 33,063
47 68,175 47,320 47,320 20,855 20,855
48 61,100 55,489 55,489 5,611 5,611
et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt k=4

307,467,458 0.81907464 -0.81907464

178,937,441 0.78144351 -0.78144351
5,802,077 0.1336116 -0.1336116
1,438,800 0.06032792 -0.06032792 TOTAL
10,977,626 0.20975247 -0.20975247
1,293,031,702 0.67005963 0.67005963 MAD 14,777
3,183,893,476 0.67763513 0.67763513 MAPE 45%
890,291,325 0.4087867 0.4087867
274,076,303 0.41517868 -0.41517868
2,815,684 0.02616642 0.02616642
303,203,863 0.36540721 -0.36540721
171,917,988 0.30457027 -0.30457027
86,815,806 0.23673112 -0.23673112
1,461,571,130 3.70558302 -3.70558302
101,994,851 0.2234644 0.2234644
145,202,500 0.25897271 0.25897271
175,430,025 0.5991857 -0.5991857
106,368,282 0.24941959 0.24941959
52,262,056 0.15707566 0.15707566
8,143,889 0.06818019 0.06818019
31,964,889 0.17569142 -0.17569142
3,071,256 0.04540155 -0.04540155
214,476,025 0.58533173 -0.58533173
285,136,996 0.32916179 0.32916179
24,850,225 0.15681032 -0.15681032
20,953,506 0.14260125 -0.14260125
614,023,620 0.41415129 0.41415129
169,403,240 0.42340599 -0.42340599
84,355,040 0.19214435 0.19214435
977,937,984 0.42322371 0.42322371
50,929,632 0.11854257 0.11854257
4,169,764 0.03699275 0.03699275
9,388,096 0.04915219 0.04915219
12,915,039 0.05404054 0.05404054
879,478,336 0.9443383 -0.9443383
301,248,092 0.47546844 -0.47546844
1,043,193,102 1.91251184 -1.91251184
357,786,683 1.00033053 -1.00033053
91,656,689 0.2696831 0.2696831
590,477,850 0.47414146 0.47414146
14,487,539 0.11050867 0.11050867
1,093,128,906 0.48558483 0.48558483
434,920,598 0.30590026 0.30590026
31,483,321 0.09183306 0.09183306
MES Yt Pronostico - Y^t
pronostico ajustado
Error - et [et]
1 55,200
2 57,350
3 15,445
4 27,776 51,870 51,870 - 24,094 24,094
5 21,408 41,821 41,821 - 20,413 20,413
6 17,118 19,741 19,741 - 2,623 2,623
7 18,028 24,800 24,800 - 6,772 6,772
8 19,883 19,783 19,783 100 100
9 15,796 17,668 17,668 - 1,872 1,872
10 53,665 18,361 18,361 35,304 35,304
11 83,269 22,035 22,035 61,234 61,234
12 72,991 33,904 33,904 39,087 39,087
13 39,875 64,479 64,479 - 24,604 24,604
14 64,128 75,846 75,846 - 11,718 11,718
15 47,653 62,170 62,170 - 14,517 14,517
16 43,050 47,929 47,929 - 4,879 4,879
17 39,359 57,078 57,078 - 17,719 17,719
18 10,317 45,443 45,443 - 35,126 35,126
19 45,194 38,669 38,669 6,525 6,525
20 46,530 31,230 31,230 15,300 15,300
21 22,105 24,401 24,401 - 2,296 2,296
22 41,350 43,286 43,286 - 1,936 1,936
23 46,024 38,685 38,685 7,340 7,340
24 41,856 30,270 30,270 11,586 11,586
25 32,180 42,803 42,803 - 10,623 10,623
26 38,600 43,389 43,389 - 4,789 4,789
27 25,020 38,628 38,628 - 13,608 13,608
28 51,300 33,390 33,390 17,910 17,910
29 31,790 35,796 35,796 - 4,006 4,006
30 32,100 33,581 33,581 - 1,481 1,481
31 59,832 43,527 43,527 16,305 16,305
32 30,740 34,687 34,687 - 3,947 3,947
33 47,800 40,284 40,284 7,516 7,516
34 73,890 49,901 49,901 23,989 23,989
35 60,202 40,173 40,173 20,029 20,029
36 55,200 56,867 56,867 - 1,667 1,667
37 62,337 67,915 67,915 - 5,578 5,578
38 66,501 58,915 58,915 7,586 7,586
39 31,404 58,471 58,471 - 27,067 27,067
40 36,504 60,493 60,493 - 23,989 23,989
41 16,888 52,972 52,972 - 36,084 36,084
42 18,909 31,482 31,482 - 12,573 12,573
43 35,500 28,860 28,860 6,640 6,640
44 51,250 19,356 19,356 31,895 31,895
45 34,443 27,120 27,120 7,323 7,323
 46 68,088 40,119 40,119 27,969 27,969
47 68,175 47,892 47,892 20,283 20,283
48 61,100 47,910 47,910 13,190 13,190

MES AÑO 1 Pronostico - Y^t

pronostico ajustado
Error - et [et]
1 55,200
2 57,350
3 15,445
4 27,776 31,992 31,992 - 4,216 4,216
5 21,408 27,034 27,034 - 5,626 5,626
6 17,118 22,722 22,722 - 5,604 5,604
7 18,028 19,471 19,471 - 1,443 1,443
8 19,883 18,093 18,093 1,790 1,790
9 15,796 19,050 19,050 - 3,254 3,254
10 53,665 17,245 17,245 36,420 36,420
11 83,269 38,926 38,926 44,343 44,343
12 72,991 67,641 67,641 5,351 5,351
13 39,875 74,142 74,142 - 34,267 34,267
14 64,128 54,149 54,149 9,979 9,979
15 47,653 57,738 57,738 - 10,085 10,085
16 43,050 51,818 51,818 - 8,768 8,768
17 39,359 46,539 46,539 - 7,180 7,180
18 10,317 41,296 41,296 - 30,979 30,979
19 45,194 22,303 22,303 22,891 22,891
20 46,530 34,147 34,147 12,383 12,383
21 22,105 42,508 42,508 - 20,403 20,403
22 41,350 31,741 31,741 9,609 9,609
23 46,024 36,095 36,095 9,930 9,930
24 41,856 42,230 42,230 - 374 374
25 32,180 43,056 43,056 - 10,876 10,876
26 38,600 36,467 36,467 2,133 2,133
27 25,020 37,000 37,000 - 11,980 11,980
28 51,300 29,810 29,810 21,490 21,490
29 31,790 42,146 42,146 - 10,356 10,356
30 32,100 36,966 36,966 - 4,866 4,866
31 59,832 33,927 33,927 25,905 25,905
32 30,740 48,708 48,708 - 17,968 17,968
33 47,800 39,604 39,604 8,196 8,196
34 73,890 43,885 43,885 30,005 30,005
35 60,202 61,748 61,748 - 1,546 1,546
36 55,200 63,068 63,068 - 7,868 7,868
37 62,337 58,570 58,570 3,767 3,767
38 66,501 59,982 59,982 6,519 6,519
39 31,404 64,122 64,122 - 32,718 32,718
40 36,504 45,026 45,026 - 8,522 8,522
41 16,888 37,974 37,974 - 21,086 21,086
42 18,909 24,224 24,224 - 5,315 5,315
43 35,500 20,062 20,062 15,438 15,438
44 51,250 28,662 28,662 22,589 22,589
45 34,443 43,291 43,291 - 8,848 8,848
46 68,088 39,591 39,591 28,497 28,497
47 68,175 56,311 56,311 11,864 11,864
48 61,100 64,776 64,776 - 3,676 3,676
et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt K=3

580,496,742 0.867 -0.867

416,694,652 0.954 -0.954
6,878,031 0.153 -0.153
45,857,275 0.376 -0.376
10,000 0.005 0.005
3,502,512 0.118 -0.118 PONDERACIONES
1,246,351,234 0.658 0.658 W1 0.1
3,749,590,509 0.735 0.735 W2 0.3
1,527,793,569 0.536 0.536 W3 0.6
605,346,974 0.617 -0.617 MAD 15,357.52
137,316,211 0.183 -0.183 MAPE 43.93%
210,740,386 0.305 -0.305
23,801,714 0.113 -0.113
313,952,330 0.450 -0.450
1,233,814,800 3.405 -3.405
42,570,405 0.144 0.144
234,093,060 0.329 0.329
5,273,453 0.104 -0.104
3,747,709 0.047 -0.047
53,868,260 0.159 0.159
134,226,127 0.277 0.277
112,843,880 0.330 -0.330
22,936,437 0.124 -0.124
185,166,778 0.544 -0.544
320,768,100 0.349 0.349
16,048,036 0.126 -0.126
2,193,361 0.046 -0.046
265,853,025 0.273 0.273
15,580,388 0.128 -0.128
56,496,269 0.157 0.157
575,462,525 0.325 0.325
401,160,841 0.333 0.333
2,779,556 0.030 -0.030
31,109,622 0.089 -0.089
57,548,913 0.114 0.114
732,633,316 0.862 -0.862
575,467,323 0.657 -0.657
1,302,069,490 2.137 -2.137
158,090,388 0.665 -0.665
44,093,584 0.187 0.187
1,017,259,130 0.622 0.622
53,620,471 0.213 0.213
 782,248,180 0.411 0.411
411,412,259 0.298 0.298
173,984,014 0.216 0.216

et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt K=3

17,774,656 0.152 -0.152

31,653,001 0.263 -0.263
31,405,937 0.327 -0.327
2,081,672 0.080 -0.080
3,204,100 0.090 0.090
10,588,516 0.206 -0.206
1,326,394,548 0.679 0.679
1,966,292,780 0.533 0.533
28,627,850 0.073 0.073 PONDERACIONES
1,174,213,582 0.859 -0.859 W1 0.6
99,576,449 0.156 0.156 W2 0.3
101,715,293 0.212 -0.212 W3 0.1
76,872,563 0.204 -0.204 MAD 13,487.09
51,548,092 0.182 -0.182 MAPE 38.78%
959,679,854 3.003 -3.003
524,002,459 0.507 0.507
153,328,783 0.266 0.266
416,278,328 0.923 -0.923
92,325,194 0.232 0.232
98,594,970 0.216 0.216
139,801 0.009 -0.009
118,283,026 0.338 -0.338
4,548,836 0.055 0.055
143,510,816 0.479 -0.479
461,820,100 0.419 0.419
107,246,736 0.326 -0.326
23,677,956 0.152 -0.152
671,069,025 0.433 0.433
322,856,211 0.585 -0.585
67,180,973 0.171 0.171
900,288,023 0.406 0.406
2,390,116 0.026 -0.026
61,908,571 0.143 -0.143
14,193,303 0.060 0.060
42,492,146 0.098 0.098
1,070,447,893 1.042 -1.042
72,631,302 0.233 -0.233
444,606,744 1.249 -1.249
28,253,477 0.281 -0.281
238,325,669 0.435 0.435
510,240,332 0.441 0.441
78,285,334 0.257 -0.257
812,090,408 0.419 0.419
140,761,614 0.174 0.174
13,510,770 0.060 -0.060
MES Yt PROMEDIO - Mt PROMEDIO DOBLE- M´t
1 55,200
2 57,350
3 15,445
4 27,776
5 21,408 38,943
6 17,118 30,495
7 18,028 20,437
8 19,883 21,083 27,739
9 15,796 19,109 22,781
10 53,665 17,706 19,584
11 83,269 26,843 21,185
12 72,991 43,153 26,703
13 39,875 56,430 36,033
14 64,128 62,450 47,219
15 47,653 65,066 56,775
16 43,050 56,162 60,027
17 39,359 48,677 58,089
18 10,317 48,548 54,613
19 45,194 35,095 47,120
20 46,530 34,480 41,700
21 22,105 35,350 38,368
22 41,350 31,037 33,990
23 46,024 38,795 34,915
24 41,856 39,002 36,046
25 32,180 37,834 36,667
26 38,600 40,353 38,996
27 25,020 39,665 39,213
28 51,300 34,414 38,066
29 31,790 36,775 37,802
30 32,100 36,678 36,883
31 59,832 35,053 35,730
32 30,740 43,756 38,065
33 47,800 38,616 38,525
34 73,890 42,618 40,010
35 60,202 53,066 44,514
36 55,200 53,158 46,864
37 62,337 59,273 52,029
38 66,501 62,907 57,101
39 31,404 61,060 59,100
40 36,504 53,861 59,275
41 16,888 49,187 56,754
42 18,909 37,824 50,483
43 35,500 25,926 41,699
44 51,250 26,950 34,972
45 34,443 30,637 30,334
46 68,088 35,026 29,635
47 68,175 47,320 34,983
48 61,100 55,489 42,118
VALOR DE a VALOR DE b Y^t+p AJUSTADO Error - et

14,426 - 4,438
15,438 - 2,448 9,988 9,988 5,808
15,829 - 1,252 12,990 12,990 40,675
32,501 3,772 14,577 14,577 68,692
59,604 10,967 36,273 36,273 36,718
76,827 13,598 70,570 70,570 - 30,695
77,681 10,154 90,425 90,425 - 26,297
73,357 5,527 87,835 87,835 - 40,182
52,297 - 2,577 78,884 78,884 - 35,834
39,265 - 6,275 49,720 49,720 - 10,361
42,482 - 4,044 32,990 32,990 - 22,673
23,069 - 8,017 38,439 38,439 6,755
27,260 - 4,813 15,052 15,052 31,478
32,332 - 2,012 22,447 22,447 - 342
28,083 - 1,969 30,320 30,320 11,030
42,674 2,586 26,113 26,113 19,911
41,959 1,971 45,260 45,260 - 3,404
39,001 778 43,930 43,930 - 11,750
41,709 904 39,779 39,779 - 1,179
40,117 301 42,614 42,614 - 17,594
30,762 - 2,435 40,418 40,418 10,882
35,748 - 684 28,327 28,327 3,463
36,472 - 137 35,064 35,064 - 2,964
34,375 - 452 36,335 36,335 23,497
49,446 3,794 33,924 33,924 - 3,184
38,706 60 53,239 53,239 - 5,439
45,226 1,738 38,766 38,766 35,124
61,617 5,701 46,964 46,964 13,238
59,452 4,196 67,319 67,319 - 12,119
66,517 4,830 63,648 63,648 - 1,311
68,714 3,871 71,347 71,347 - 4,846
63,020 1,307 72,584 72,584 - 41,180
48,446 - 3,610 64,327 64,327 - 27,823
41,619 - 5,045 44,836 44,836 - 27,948
25,166 - 8,439 36,575 36,575 - 17,666
10,153 - 10,515 16,727 16,727 18,773
18,929 - 5,348 - 362 362 50,888
30,939 202 13,581 13,581 20,862
40,416 3,594 31,141 31,141 36,947
59,657 8,225 44,010 44,010 24,165
68,860 8,914 67,882 67,882 - 6,782
[et] et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt K=4

5,808 33,732,622 0.368 0.368

40,675 1,654,457,320 0.758 0.758
68,692 4,718,565,105 0.825 0.825
36,718 1,348,242,123 0.503 0.503
30,695 942,209,883 0.770 - 0.770
26,297 691,550,836 0.410 - 0.410 MAD 20,262
40,182 1,614,576,382 0.843 - 0.843 MAPE 51%
35,834 1,284,074,063 0.832 - 0.832
10,361 107,345,572 0.263 - 0.263
22,673 514,057,371 2.198 - 2.198
6,755 45,636,217 0.149 0.149
31,478 990,835,629 0.676 0.676
342 117,092 0.015 - 0.015
11,030 121,663,198 0.267 0.267
19,911 396,428,840 0.433 0.433
3,404 11,590,478 0.081 - 0.081
11,750 138,051,729 0.365 - 0.365
1,179 1,389,206 0.031 - 0.031
17,594 309,536,374 0.703 - 0.703
10,882 118,424,272 0.212 0.212
3,463 11,993,668 0.109 0.109
2,964 8,785,049 0.092 - 0.092
23,497 552,099,219 0.393 0.393
3,184 10,136,264 0.104 - 0.104
5,439 29,587,707 0.114 - 0.114
35,124 1,233,701,230 0.475 0.475
13,238 175,243,541 0.220 0.220
12,119 146,861,072 0.220 - 0.220
1,311 1,717,629 0.021 - 0.021
4,846 23,483,312 0.073 - 0.073
41,180 1,695,828,433 1.311 - 1.311
27,823 774,141,356 0.762 - 0.762
27,948 781,091,869 1.655 - 1.655
17,666 312,077,987 0.934 - 0.934
18,773 352,438,827 0.529 0.529
50,888 2,589,558,859 0.993 0.993
20,862 435,223,913 0.606 0.606
36,947 1,365,102,362 0.543 0.543
24,165 583,938,163 0.354 0.354
6,782 45,995,807 0.111 - 0.111
MES Yt Pronostico - Y^t Pronostico ajustado Error - et
1 55,200 42,398
2 57,350 53,920 53,920 3,430
3 15,445 57,007 57,007 - 41,562
4 27,776 19,601 19,601 8,175
5 21,408 26,959 26,959 - 5,551
6 17,118 21,963 21,963 - 4,845
7 18,028 17,603 17,603 425
8 19,883 17,985 17,985 1,898
9 15,796 19,693 19,693 - 3,897
10 53,665 16,186 16,186 37,479
11 83,269 49,917 49,917 33,352
12 72,991 79,934 79,934 - 6,943
13 39,875 73,685 73,685 - 33,810
14 64,128 43,256 43,256 20,872
15 47,653 62,041 62,041 - 14,388
16 43,050 49,092 49,092 - 6,042
17 39,359 43,654 43,654 - 4,295
18 10,317 39,789 39,789 - 29,472
19 45,194 13,264 13,264 31,930
20 46,530 42,001 42,001 4,529
21 22,105 46,077 46,077 - 23,972
22 41,350 24,502 24,502 16,848
23 46,024 39,665 39,665 6,359
24 41,856 45,388 45,388 - 3,532
25 32,180 42,209 42,209 - 10,029
26 38,600 33,183 33,183 5,417
27 25,020 38,058 38,058 - 13,038
28 51,300 26,324 26,324 24,976
29 31,790 48,802 48,802 - 17,012
30 32,100 33,491 33,491 - 1,391
31 59,832 32,239 32,239 27,593
32 30,740 57,073 57,073 - 26,333
33 47,800 33,373 33,373 14,427
34 73,890 46,357 46,357 27,533
35 60,202 71,137 71,137 - 10,935
36 55,200 61,295 61,295 - 6,095
37 62,337 55,810 55,810 6,527
38 66,501 61,684 61,684 4,817
39 31,404 66,019 66,019 - 34,615
40 36,504 34,866 34,866 1,638
41 16,888 36,340 36,340 - 19,452
42 18,909 18,833 18,833 76
43 35,500 18,901 18,901 16,599
44 51,250 33,840 33,840 17,410
45 34,443 49,509 49,509 - 15,066
 46 68,088 35,950 35,950 32,138
47 68,175 64,874 64,874 3,301
48 61,100 67,845 67,845 - 6,745

MES Yt Pronostico - Y^t Pronostico ajustado Error - et

1 55,200 42,398
2 57,350 43,679 43,679 13,671
3 15,445 45,046 45,046 - 29,601
4 27,776 42,086 42,086 - 14,310
5 21,408 40,655 40,655 - 19,247
6 17,118 38,730 38,730 - 21,612
7 18,028 36,569 36,569 - 18,541
8 19,883 34,715 34,715 - 14,832
9 15,796 33,232 33,232 - 17,436
10 53,665 31,488 31,488 22,177
11 83,269 33,706 33,706 49,563
12 72,991 38,662 38,662 34,329
13 39,875 42,095 42,095 - 2,220
14 64,128 41,873 41,873 22,255
15 47,653 44,098 44,098 3,555
16 43,050 44,454 44,454 - 1,404
17 39,359 44,314 44,314 - 4,955
18 10,317 43,818 43,818 - 33,501
19 45,194 40,468 40,468 4,726
20 46,530 40,941 40,941 5,589
21 22,105 41,499 41,499 - 19,394
22 41,350 39,560 39,560 1,790
23 46,024 39,739 39,739 6,285
24 41,856 40,368 40,368 1,488
25 32,180 40,516 40,516 - 8,336
26 38,600 39,683 39,683 - 1,083
27 25,020 39,574 39,574 - 14,554
28 51,300 38,119 38,119 13,181
29 31,790 39,437 39,437 - 7,647
30 32,100 38,672 38,672 - 6,572
31 59,832 38,015 38,015 21,817
32 30,740 40,197 40,197 - 9,457
33 47,800 39,251 39,251 8,549
34 73,890 40,106 40,106 33,784
35 60,202 43,484 43,484 16,718
36 55,200 45,156 45,156 10,044
37 62,337 46,161 46,161 16,176
38 66,501 47,778 47,778 18,723
39 31,404 49,651 49,651 - 18,247
40 36,504 47,826 47,826 - 11,322
41 16,888 46,694 46,694 - 29,806
42 18,909 43,713 43,713 - 24,804
43 35,500 41,233 41,233 - 5,733
44 51,250 40,659 40,659 10,591
45 34,443 41,718 41,718 - 7,275
46 68,088 40,991 40,991 27,097
47 68,175 43,701 43,701 24,474
48 61,100 46,148 46,148 14,952
[et] et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt

3,430 11,766,000 0.0598 0.0598

41,562 1,727,398,511 2.6910 -2.6910
8,175 66,827,381 0.2943 0.2943
5,551 30,808,270 0.2593 -0.2593
4,845 23,474,529 0.2830 -0.2830 a 0.9
425 181,046 0.0236 0.0236 1-a 0.1
1,898 3,600,694 0.0954 0.0954
3,897 15,188,519 0.2467 -0.2467
37,479 1,404,696,092 0.6984 0.6984
33,352 1,112,351,071 0.4005 0.4005
6,943 48,202,572 0.0951 -0.0951 MAD
33,810 1,143,135,083 0.8479 -0.8479 MAPE
20,872 435,639,212 0.3255 0.3255
14,388 207,008,870 0.3019 -0.3019
6,042 36,503,109 0.1403 -0.1403
4,295 18,448,554 0.1091 -0.1091
29,472 868,570,362 2.8566 -2.8566
31,930 1,019,515,207 0.7065 0.7065
4,529 20,511,704 0.0973 0.0973
23,972 574,661,651 1.0845 -1.0845
16,848 283,848,023 0.4074 0.4074
6,359 40,434,070 0.1382 0.1382
3,532 12,475,887 0.0844 -0.0844
10,029 100,585,098 0.3117 -0.3117
5,417 29,344,742 0.1403 0.1403
13,038 169,997,061 0.5211 -0.5211
24,976 623,809,107 0.4869 0.4869
17,012 289,421,173 0.5351 -0.5351
1,391 1,935,544 0.0433 -0.0433
27,593 761,366,815 0.4612 0.4612
26,333 693,411,741 0.8566 -0.8566
14,427 208,130,503 0.3018 0.3018
27,533 758,048,076 0.3726 0.3726
10,935 119,568,379 0.1816 -0.1816
6,095 37,154,794 0.1104 -0.1104
6,527 42,607,638 0.1047 0.1047
4,817 23,201,035 0.0724 0.0724
34,615 1,198,220,758 1.1023 -1.1023
1,638 2,684,576 0.0449 0.0449
19,452 378,386,266 1.1518 -1.1518
76 5,743 0.0040 0.0040
16,599 275,512,807 0.4676 0.4676
17,410 303,103,150 0.3397 0.3397
15,066 226,984,784 0.4374 -0.4374
32,138 1,032,876,663 0.4720 0.4720
3,301 10,895,544 0.0484 0.0484
6,745 45,493,892 0.1104 -0.1104

[et] et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt

13,671 186,908,374 0.2384 0.2384

29,601 876,201,477 1.9165 -1.9165
14,310 204,765,527 0.5152 -0.5152
19,247 370,434,210 0.8990 -0.8990
21,612 467,078,577 1.2625 -1.2625 a 0.1
18,541 343,761,290 1.0284 -1.0284 1-a 0.9
14,832 219,979,936 0.7459 -0.7459
17,436 303,998,353 1.1038 -1.1038
22,177 491,819,609 0.4132 0.4132
49,563 2,456,521,269 0.5952 0.5952
34,329 1,178,478,532 0.4703 0.4703 MAD
2,220 4,928,055 0.0557 -0.0557 MAPE
22,255 495,288,133 0.3470 0.3470
3,555 12,634,917 0.0746 0.0746
1,404 1,970,917 0.0326 -0.0326
4,955 24,547,111 0.1259 -0.1259
33,501 1,122,320,598 3.2472 -3.2472
4,726 22,335,565 0.1046 0.1046
5,589 31,241,912 0.1201 0.1201
19,394 376,146,558 0.8774 -0.8774
1,790 3,203,927 0.0433 0.0433
6,285 39,500,678 0.1366 0.1366
1,488 2,215,516 0.0356 0.0356
8,336 69,495,319 0.2591 -0.2591
1,083 1,172,340 0.0281 -0.0281
14,554 211,832,656 0.5817 -0.5817
13,181 173,738,106 0.2569 0.2569
7,647 58,478,480 0.2406 -0.2406
6,572 43,196,575 0.2047 -0.2047
21,817 475,974,111 0.3646 0.3646
9,457 89,432,053 0.3076 -0.3076
8,549 73,082,546 0.1788 0.1788
33,784 1,141,355,259 0.4572 0.4572
16,718 279,476,637 0.2777 0.2777
10,044 100,877,904 0.1820 0.1820
16,176 261,676,543 0.2595 0.2595
18,723 350,542,394 0.2815 0.2815
18,247 332,934,774 0.5810 -0.5810
11,322 128,184,294 0.3102 -0.3102
29,806 888,377,682 1.7649 -1.7649
24,804 615,243,314 1.3118 -1.3118
5,733 32,863,722 0.1615 -0.1615
10,591 112,160,385 0.2066 0.2066
7,275 52,932,580 0.2112 -0.2112
27,097 734,251,193 0.3980 0.3980
24,474 598,994,436 0.3590 0.3590
14,952 223,560,108 0.2447 0.2447
 TOTAL
14,612.11
44.52%
 TOTAL
15,391.95
50.68%
MES Yt Lt Tt Yt+p ajustado Error - et
1 55,200 55,200 -
2 57,350 55,415 21.50
3 15,445 51,437 - 378.42 55,437 55,437 - 39,992
4 27,776 48,731 - 611.24 51,059 51,059 - 23,283
5 21,408 45,448 - 878.36 48,119 48,119 - 26,711
6 17,118 41,825 - 1,152.88 44,570 44,570 - 27,452
7 18,028 38,407 - 1,379.32 40,672 40,672 - 22,644
8 19,883 35,314 - 1,550.77 37,028 37,028 - 17,145
9 15,796 31,966 - 1,730.44 33,763 33,763 - 17,967
10 53,665 32,579 - 1,496.14 30,236 30,236 23,429
11 83,269 36,301 - 974.28 31,083 31,083 52,186
12 72,991 39,093 - 597.64 35,327 35,327 37,664
13 39,875 38,634 - 583.84 38,496 38,496 1,379
14 64,128 40,658 - 323.06 38,050 38,050 26,078
15 47,653 41,066 - 249.88 40,335 40,335 7,318
16 43,050 41,040 - 227.54 40,816 40,816 2,234
17 39,359 40,667 - 242.07 40,812 40,812 - 1,453
18 10,317 37,414 - 543.15 40,425 40,425 - 30,108
19 45,194 37,703 - 459.92 36,871 36,871 8,323
20 46,530 38,172 - 367.06 37,243 37,243 9,287
21 22,105 36,235 - 524.06 37,805 37,805 - 15,700
22 41,350 36,275 - 467.66 35,711 35,711 5,639
23 46,024 36,829 - 365.50 35,807 35,807 10,217
24 41,856 37,003 - 311.57 36,463 36,463 5,393
25 32,180 36,240 - 356.68 36,691 36,691 - 4,511
26 38,600 36,155 - 329.51 35,883 35,883 2,717
27 25,020 34,745 - 437.57 35,825 35,825 - 10,805
28 51,300 36,007 - 267.64 34,307 34,307 16,993
29 31,790 35,344 - 307.13 35,739 35,739 - 3,949
30 32,100 34,743 - 336.50 35,037 35,037 - 2,937
31 59,832 36,949 - 82.24 34,407 34,407 25,425
32 30,740 36,254 - 143.51 36,867 36,867 - 6,127
33 47,800 37,280 - 26.62 36,111 36,111 11,689
34 73,890 40,917 339.75 37,253 37,253 36,637
35 60,202 43,151 529.20 41,257 41,257 18,945
36 55,200 44,832 644.40 43,680 43,680 11,520
37 62,337 47,163 813.00 45,477 45,477 16,860
38 66,501 49,828 998.26 47,976 47,976 18,525
39 31,404 48,884 804.03 50,826 50,826 - 19,422
40 36,504 48,370 672.19 49,688 49,688 - 13,184
41 16,888 45,827 350.65 49,042 49,042 - 32,154
42 18,909 43,450 77.97 46,177 46,177 - 27,268
43 35,500 42,726 - 2.32 43,528 43,528 - 8,028
44 51,250 43,576 82.95 42,723 42,723 8,527
45 34,443 42,737 - 9.21 43,659 43,659 - 9,216
 46 68,088 45,264 244.39 42,728 42,728 25,360
47 68,175 47,775 471.05 45,508 45,508 22,667
48 61,100 49,532 599.59 48,246 48,246 12,854

MES Yt Lt Tt Yt+p ajustado Error - et

1 55,200 55,200 -
2 57,350 57,135 1,741.50
3 15,445 19,788 - 33,438.02 58,877 58,877 - 43,432
4 27,776 23,633 116.94 - 13,650 - 13,650 41,426
5 21,408 21,642 - 1,780.37 23,750 23,750 - 2,342
6 17,118 17,392 - 4,002.90 19,862 19,862 - 2,744
7 18,028 17,564 - 245.70 13,389 13,389 4,639
8 19,883 19,627 1,831.59 17,318 17,318 2,565
9 15,796 16,362 - 2,754.74 21,458 21,458 - 5,662
10 53,665 49,659 29,691.86 13,607 13,607 40,058
11 83,269 82,877 32,865.35 79,351 79,351 3,918
12 72,991 77,266 - 1,763.41 115,743 115,743 - 42,752
13 39,875 43,438 - 30,621.89 75,503 75,503 - 35,628
14 64,128 58,997 10,940.92 12,816 12,816 51,312
15 47,653 49,881 - 7,109.69 69,938 69,938 - 22,285
16 43,050 43,022 - 6,884.33 42,772 42,772 278
17 39,359 39,037 - 4,275.20 36,138 36,138 3,221
18 10,317 12,761 - 24,075.39 34,762 34,762 - 24,445
19 45,194 39,543 21,696.03 - 11,314 - 11,314 56,508
20 46,530 48,001 9,781.55 61,239 61,239 - 14,709
21 22,105 25,673 - 19,117.20 57,782 57,782 - 35,677
22 41,350 37,871 9,066.31 6,556 6,556 34,794
23 46,024 46,115 8,326.89 46,937 46,937 - 913
24 41,856 43,115 - 1,867.91 54,442 54,442 - 12,586
25 32,180 33,087 - 9,211.94 41,247 41,247 - 9,067
26 38,600 37,127 2,715.53 23,875 23,875 14,725
27 25,020 26,502 - 9,291.10 39,843 39,843 - 14,823
28 51,300 47,891 18,320.83 17,211 17,211 34,089
29 31,790 35,232 - 9,560.95 66,212 66,212 - 34,422
30 32,100 31,457 - 4,353.66 25,671 25,671 6,429
31 59,832 56,559 22,156.45 27,103 27,103 32,729
32 30,740 35,538 - 16,703.78 78,716 78,716 - 47,976
33 47,800 44,903 6,758.86 18,834 18,834 28,966
34 73,890 71,667 24,763.35 51,662 51,662 22,228
35 60,202 63,825 - 4,581.80 96,431 96,431 - 36,229
36 55,200 55,604 - 7,856.68 59,243 59,243 - 4,043
37 62,337 60,878 3,960.71 47,748 47,748 14,589
38 66,501 66,335 5,307.11 64,839 64,839 1,662
39 31,404 35,428 - 27,285.58 71,642 71,642 - 40,238
40 36,504 33,668 - 4,312.53 8,142 8,142 28,362
41 16,888 18,135 - 14,411.04 29,355 29,355 - 12,467
42 18,909 17,390 - 2,110.94 3,724 3,724 15,185
43 35,500 33,478 14,267.64 15,280 15,280 20,220
44 51,250 50,900 17,106.21 47,746 47,746 3,504
45 34,443 37,799 - 10,079.63 68,006 68,006 - 33,563
46 68,088 64,051 22,618.74 27,720 27,720 40,368
47 68,175 70,024 7,637.87 86,670 86,670 - 18,495
48 61,100 62,756 - 5,777.64 77,662 77,662 - 16,562
[et] et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt

39,992 1,599,320,072 2.589 - 2.589

23,283 542,095,062 0.838 - 0.838
26,711 713,498,738 1.248 - 1.248
27,452 753,606,765 1.604 - 1.604
22,644 512,743,123 1.256 - 1.256 a 0.1
17,145 293,955,588 0.862 - 0.862 1-a 0.9
17,967 322,807,800 1.137 - 1.137
23,429 548,930,598 0.437 0.437 b 0.1
52,186 2,723,429,111 0.627 0.627 1-b 0.9
37,664 1,418,585,450 0.516 0.516
1,379 1,902,576 0.035 0.035 MAD 16,911.39
26,078 680,075,049 0.407 0.407 MAPE 56%
7,318 53,560,218 0.154 0.154
2,234 4,988,577 0.052 0.052
1,453 2,112,075 0.037 - 0.037
30,108 906,485,291 2.918 - 2.918
8,323 69,273,131 0.184 0.184
9,287 86,242,161 0.200 0.200
15,700 246,488,274 0.710 - 0.710
5,639 31,799,502 0.136 0.136
10,217 104,384,196 0.222 0.222
5,393 29,080,870 0.129 0.129
4,511 20,349,389 0.140 - 0.140
2,717 7,380,744 0.070 0.070
10,805 116,756,910 0.432 - 0.432
16,993 288,751,710 0.331 0.331
3,949 15,594,087 0.124 - 0.124
2,937 8,625,460 0.091 - 0.091
25,425 646,444,627 0.425 0.425
6,127 37,540,222 0.199 - 0.199
11,689 136,637,579 0.245 0.245
36,637 1,342,263,143 0.496 0.496
18,945 358,930,912 0.315 0.315
11,520 132,704,032 0.209 0.209
16,860 284,271,495 0.270 0.270
18,525 343,187,313 0.279 0.279
19,422 377,232,389 0.618 - 0.618
13,184 173,824,569 0.361 - 0.361
32,154 1,033,880,812 1.904 - 1.904
27,268 743,558,171 1.442 - 1.442
8,028 64,455,237 0.226 - 0.226
8,527 72,705,589 0.166 0.166
9,216 84,932,208 0.268 - 0.268
25,360 643,126,027 0.372 0.372
22,667 513,772,367 0.332 0.332
12,854 165,221,146 0.210 0.210

[et] et^2 [et]/Yt et/Yt

43,432 1,886,295,192 2.812 - 2.812

41,426 1,716,102,291 1.491 1.491
2,342 5,486,600 0.109 - 0.109
2,744 7,528,810 0.160 - 0.160
4,639 21,515,805 0.257 0.257 a 0.9
2,565 6,576,946 0.129 0.129 1-a 0.1
5,662 32,059,718 0.358 - 0.358
40,058 1,604,605,444 0.746 0.746 b 0.9
3,918 15,349,907 0.047 0.047 1-b 0.1
42,752 1,827,696,130 0.586 - 0.586
35,628 1,269,336,058 0.893 - 0.893 MAD 22,018.13
51,312 2,632,932,722 0.800 0.800 MAPE 63%
22,285 496,608,459 0.468 - 0.468
278 77,407 0.006 0.006
3,221 10,375,844 0.082 0.082
24,445 597,542,724 2.369 - 2.369
56,508 3,193,145,609 1.250 1.250
14,709 216,361,535 0.316 - 0.316
35,677 1,272,881,872 1.614 - 1.614
34,794 1,210,654,236 0.841 0.841
913 833,314 0.020 - 0.020
12,586 158,411,807 0.301 - 0.301
9,067 82,205,135 0.282 - 0.282
14,725 216,833,669 0.381 0.381
14,823 219,721,338 0.592 - 0.592
34,089 1,162,046,462 0.664 0.664
34,422 1,184,870,450 1.083 - 1.083
6,429 41,328,891 0.200 0.200
32,729 1,071,156,917 0.547 0.547
47,976 2,301,658,266 1.561 - 1.561
28,966 839,042,041 0.606 0.606
22,228 494,073,518 0.301 0.301
36,229 1,312,509,322 0.602 - 0.602
4,043 16,346,350 0.073 - 0.073
14,589 212,849,691 0.234 0.234
1,662 2,762,986 0.025 0.025
40,238 1,619,087,967 1.281 - 1.281
28,362 804,391,072 0.777 0.777
12,467 155,433,370 0.738 - 0.738
15,185 230,593,531 0.803 0.803
20,220 408,867,329 0.570 0.570
3,504 12,280,855 0.068 0.068
33,563 1,126,459,485 0.974 - 0.974
40,368 1,629,604,197 0.593 0.593
18,495 342,061,315 0.271 - 0.271
16,562 274,311,655 0.271 - 0.271