t u y z zt-1
0 0 6 0 trend value -2.4 2000 24
1 -1 7.4 -1 b0 2.4 2023 37.4
2 10 20.8 10 alpha 0 2057 56.44
3 22 35.2 22 alpha + 2(t) 2103 79.864
4 -9 6.6 -9 2118 62.9184
5 -17 1 -17 2125 44.75104 only ap part gets
6 15 35.4 15 2164 65.850624 yt will be a fraction
7 -18 4.8 -18 2170 45.5103744
8 5 30.2 5 2199 56.30622464
9 13 40.6 13 2236 70.783734784
10 10 40 10 2270 76.47024087
11 5 37.4 5 2299 74.882144522
12 11 45.8 11 2334 79.929286713
13 -17 20.2 -17 2341 54.957572028
14 -20 19.6 -20 2345 36.974543217
15 -14 28 -14 2355 32.18472593
16 0 44.4 0 2379 43.310835558
17 -8 38.8 -8 2395 41.986501335
18 9 58.2 9 2428 58.191900801
19 -9 42.6 -9 2443 49.915140481
20 -12 42 -12 2455 41.949084288
21 17 73.4 17 2496 66.169450573
22 10 68.8 10 2530 73.701670344
23 4 65.2 4 2558 72.221002206
24 18 81.6 18 2600 85.332601324
25 -14 52 -14 2610 61.199560794 120
26 12 80.4 12 2646 72.719736477
100
27 16 86.8 16 2686 83.631841886
28 23 96.2 23 2733 97.179105132
80
29 -11 64.6 -11 2746 71.307463079
30 1 79 1 2771 67.784477847 60
31 -2 78.4 -2 2793 62.670686708
32 21 103.8 21 2838 82.602412025 40
33 14 99.2 14 2876 87.561447215
34 18 105.6 18 2918 94.536868329 20
35 10 100 10 2952 90.722120997
36 -16 76.4 -16 2960 62.433272598 0
0 50
37 13 107.8 13 2997 74.459963559
38 8 105.2 8 3029 76.675978135
39 15 114.6 15 3068 85.005586881
40 3 105 3 3095 78.003352129
41 -21 83.4 -21 3098 49.802011277
42 10 116.8 10 3132 63.881206766
43 -12 97.2 -12 3144 50.32872406
44 -15 96.6 -15 3153 39.197234436
45 -19 95 -19 3158 28.518340662
46 20 136.4 20 3202 61.111004397
47 -22 96.8 -22 3204 38.666602638
48 21 142.2 21 3249 68.199961583
49 -21 102.6 -21 3252 43.91997695
50 -14 112 -14 3262 36.35198617
51 16 144.4 16 3302 61.811191702
52 4 134.8 4 3330 65.086715021
53 16 149.2 16 3370 79.052029013
54 -22 113.6 -22 3372 49.431217408
55 2 140 2 3398 55.658730445
56 -16 124.4 -16 3406 41.395238267
57 23 165.8 23 3453 71.83714296
58 7 152.2 7 3484 74.102285776
59 -24 123.6 -24 3484 44.461371466
60 -9 141 -9 3499 41.676822879
61 5 157.4 5 3528 54.006093728
62 24 178.8 24 3576 80.403656237
63 -10 147.2 -10 3590 62.242193742
64 -12 147.6 -12 3602 49.345316245
65 -24 138 -24 3602 29.607189747
66 -19 145.4 -19 3607 22.764313848
67 -14 152.8 -14 3617 23.658588309
68 23 192.2 23 3664 61.195152985
69 -17 154.6 -17 3671 43.717091791
70 24 198 24 3719 74.230255075
71 15 191.4 15 3758 83.538153045
72 -11 167.8 -11 3771 63.122891827
73 -14 167.2 -14 3781 47.873735096
74 5 188.6 5 3810 57.724241058
75 -11 175 -11 3823 47.634544635
76 9 197.4 9 3856 61.580726781
77 10 200.8 10 3890 70.948436068
78 -20 173.2 -20 3894 46.569061641
79 3 198.6 3 3921 54.941436985
80 21 219 21 3966 77.964862191
81 21 221.4 21 4011 91.778917314
82 -2 200.8 -2 4033 77.067350389
83 -21 184.2 -21 4036 49.240410233
84 3 210.6 3 4063 56.54424614
85 -21 189 -21 4066 36.926547684
86 -24 188.4 -24 4066 22.15592861
87 -14 200.8 -14 4076 23.293557166
88 6 223.2 6 4106 43.9761343
89 15 234.6 15 4145 65.38568058
90 11 233 11 4180 74.231408348
91 -7 217.4 -7 4197 61.538845009
92 -7 219.8 -7 4214 53.923307005
93 -20 209.2 -20 4218 36.353984203
94 -20 211.6 -20 4222 25.812390522
95 -15 219 -15 4231 24.487434313
96 -4 232.4 -4 4251 34.692460588
97 -13 225.8 -13 4262 31.815476353
98 21 262.2 21 4307 64.089285812
99 9 252.6 9 4340 71.453571487
100 -5 241 -5 4359 61.872142892
101 -13 235.4 -13 4370 48.123285735
102 -6 244.8 -6 4388 46.873971441
103 14 267.2 14 4426 66.124382865
104 19 274.6 19 4469 82.674629719
105 -13 245 -13 4480 60.604777831
106 0 260.4 0 4504 60.362866699
107 10 272.8 10 4538 70.217720019
108 -3 262.2 -3 4559 63.130632012
109 -5 262.6 -5 4578 56.878379207
110 -20 250 -20 4582 38.127027524
111 23 295.4 23 4629 69.876216514
112 9 283.8 9 4662 74.925729909
113 -20 257.2 -20 4666 48.955437945
114 23 302.6 23 4713 76.373262767
115 6 288 6 4743 75.82395766
116 16 300.4 16 4783 85.494374596
117 -11 275.8 -11 4796 64.296624758
118 24 313.2 24 4844 86.577974855
119 14 305.6 14 4882 89.946784913
120 -18 276 -18 4888 59.968070948
121 8 304.4 8 4920 67.980842569
122 -7 291.8 -7 4937 57.788505541
123 -4 297.2 -4 4957 54.673103325
124 -12 291.6 -12 4969 44.803861995
125 -9 297 -9 4984 41.882317197
126 -11 297.4 -11 4997 38.129390318
127 14 324.8 14 5035 60.877634191
128 23 336.2 23 5082 83.526580515
129 -10 305.6 -10 5096 64.115948309
130 18 336 18 5138 80.469568985
131 -15 305.4 -15 5147 57.281741391
132 14 336.8 14 5185 72.369044835
133 10 335.2 10 5219 77.421426901
134 -17 310.6 -17 5226 53.45285614
135 -2 328 -2 5248 54.071713684
136 -14 318.4 -14 5258 42.443028211
137 -10 324.8 -10 5272 39.465816926
138 24 361.2 24 5320 71.679490156
139 -12 327.6 -12 5332 55.007694093
140 -15 327 -15 5341 42.004616456
141 -4 340.4 -4 5361 45.202769874
142 -11 335.8 -11 5374 40.121661924
143 7 356.2 7 5405 55.072997155
144 20 371.6 20 5449 77.043798293
145 -13 341 -13 5460 57.226278976
146 14 370.4 14 5498 72.335767385
147 7 365.8 7 5529 74.401460431
148 21 382.2 21 5574 89.640876259
149 -22 341.6 -22 5576 55.784525755
150 -5 361 -5 5595 52.470715453
151 6 374.4 6 5625 61.482429272
152 2 372.8 2 5651 62.889457563
153 -24 349.2 -24 5651 37.733674538
154 -18 357.6 -18 5657 28.640204723
155 -10 368 -10 5671 31.184122834
156 -13 367.4 -13 5682 29.7104737
157 15 397.8 15 5721 56.82628422
158 -17 368.2 -17 5728 41.095770532
159 -20 367.6 -20 5732 28.657462319
160 24 414 24 5780 65.194477392
161 -17 375.4 -17 5787 46.116686435
162 -23 371.8 -23 5788 28.670011861
163 8 405.2 8 5820 49.202007117
164 9 408.6 9 5853 62.52120427
165 13 415 13 5890 74.512722562
166 8 412.4 8 5922 76.707633537
167 -12 394.8 -12 5934 58.024580122
168 16 425.2 16 5974 74.814748073
169 4 415.6 4 6002 72.888848844
170 -12 402 -12 6014 55.733309306
171 -6 410.4 -6 6032 51.439985584
172 21 439.8 21 6077 75.86399135
173 -16 405.2 -16 6085 53.51839481
174 11 434.6 11 6120 67.111036886
175 -23 403 -23 6121 41.266622132
176 -21 407.4 -21 6124 27.759973279
177 -22 408.8 -22 6126 18.655983967
178 15 448.2 15 6165 50.19359038
179 13 448.6 13 6202 67.116154228
180 -2 436 -2 6224 62.269692537
181 17 457.4 17 6265 78.361815522
182 -7 435.8 -7 6282 64.017089313
183 12 457.2 12 6318 74.410253588
184 2 449.6 2 6344 70.646152153
185 4 454 4 6372 70.387691292
186 -14 438.4 -14 6382 52.232614775
187 16 470.8 16 6422 71.339568865
188 0 457.2 0 6446 66.803741319
189 6 465.6 6 6476 70.082244791
190 6 468 6 6506 72.049346875
191 5 469.4 5 6535 72.229608125
192 -24 442.8 -24 6535 43.337764875
193 -8 461.2 -8 6551 42.002658925
194 -3 468.6 -3 6572 46.201595355
195 -1 473 -1 6595 50.720957213
196 10 486.4 10 6629 64.432574328
197 16 494.8 16 6669 78.659544597
198 23 504.2 23 6716 94.195726758
199 -14 469.6 -14 6726 66.517436055
200 -2 484 -2 6748 61.910461633
201 5 493.4 5 6777 66.14627698
202 13 503.8 13 6814 76.687766188
203 -21 472.2 -21 6817 49.012659713
204 -8 487.6 -8 6833 45.407595828
205 -9 489 -9 6848 42.244557497
206 17 517.4 17 6889 66.346734498
207 -5 497.8 -5 6908 58.808040699
208 5 510.2 5 6937 64.284824419
209 3 510.6 3 6964 65.570894652
210 9 519 9 6997 72.342536791
211 -24 488.4 -24 6997 43.405522075
212 -10 504.8 -10 7011 40.043313245
213 -13 504.2 -13 7022 35.025987947
214 -9 510.6 -9 7037 36.015592768
215 18 540 18 7079 63.609355661
216 22 546.4 22 7125 84.165613397
217 -22 504.8 -22 7127 52.499368038
218 9 538.2 9 7160 64.499620823
219 20 551.6 20 7204 82.699772494
220 1 535 1 7229 74.619863496
221 22 558.4 22 7275 90.771918098
222 10 548.8 10 7309 88.463150859
223 17 558.2 17 7350 94.077890515
224 -1 542.6 -1 7373 79.446734309
225 -20 526 -20 7377 51.668040585
226 -22 526.4 -22 7379 33.000824351
227 -4 546.8 -4 7399 39.800494611
228 16 569.2 16 7439 63.880296766
229 -23 532.6 -23 7440 39.32817806
230 15 573 15 7479 62.596906836
231 0 560.4 0 7503 61.558144102
232 15 577.8 15 7542 75.934886461
233 15 580.2 15 7581 84.560931877
234 -12 555.6 -12 7593 62.736559126
235 -22 548 -22 7595 39.641935476
236 15 587.4 15 7634 62.785161285
237 22 596.8 22 7680 83.671096771
238 15 592.2 15 7719 89.202658063
239 13 592.6 13 7756 90.521594838
240 17 599 17 7797 95.312956903
only ap part gets
yt will be a fraction
z
30
20
10
0
0 50 100 150
-10
-20
Chart Title
120 -30
100
80
60 no detrministic trend ansd stationery auto regr
40
20
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
trend stationery process
with y0=0
alpha=0
700
600
500
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
12
z
150 200 250 300
ansd stationery auto regressive
y
t
12
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
zt-1
69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101105109113117121125129133137141145149153157161165169173177181185189193197201205209213217221225229233237
zt-1
5209213217221225229233237241