pronostico

Venta (miles
semanas de galones) n=3 n=4
1 17
2 21
Venta

Ventas (miles de galones)

3 19 19 20 25
21
20 17 19
4 23 21 20
15
5 18 20 19
10
6 16 19 19
5
7 20 18 18
0
8 18 18 19 1 2 3
9 22 20 20
10 20 20 19
11 15 19
12 22 19
total 231
promedio 19.25

Venta (miles error de error del pronostico al

semanas de galones) n=3 pronostico cuadrado
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19 4 16
5 18 21 -3 9
6 16 20 -4 16
7 20 19 1 1
8 18 18 0 0
9 22 18 4 16
10 20 20 0 0
11 15 20 -5 25
12 22 19 3 9
92
10.2222222222222

Venta (miles error de

semanas de galones) n=4 pronoctico
1 17
2 21
3 19
 4 23
5 18 20.00 2.00 4.00
6 16 20.25 4.25 18.06
7 20 19.00 -1.00 1.00
8 18 19.25 1.25 1.56
9 22 18.00 -4.00 16.00
10 20 19.00 -1.00 1.00
11 15 20.00 5.00 25.00
12 22 18.75 -3.25 10.56
77.19
9.65
 Ventas de gasolina pronostico de ventas
Ventas (miles de galones)

25 23 22 22 25
21 20 20
20 17 19 18 18
16 15 20
15
15

Axis Title
10
10
5
0 5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
semanas 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Axis Title

ventas reales Linear (ventas reales)

Column D Column E
 9 10 11 12

reales)
mes ventas n=3 n=5
1 105
2 135 ventas
3 120 160
135
145 140
140 120 120
4 105 120 120 105 105
5 90 120 100 90

Axis Title
80
6 120 105 111 60
7 145 105 114 40
20
8 140 118.3333333 116 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 100 135 120
meses
10 80 128.3333333 119
11 100 106.6666667 117
12 110 93.33333333 113

mes ventas n=3

1 105
2 135
3 120
4 105 120 15 225
5 90 120 30 900
6 120 105 -15 225
7 145 105 -40 1600
8 140 118.3333333 -21.6666667 469.4444444
9 100 135 35 1225
10 80 128.3333333 48.33333333 2336.111111
11 100 106.6666667 6.666666667 44.44444444
12 110 93.33333333 -16.6666667 277.7777778
7302.777778
811.4197531

mes ventas
1 105
2 135
3 120
4 105
5 90
6 120 111 -9 81
7 145 114 -31 961
8 140 116 -24 576
9 100 120 20 400
10 80 119 39 1521
11 100 117 17 289
12 110 113 3 9
3837
548.1428571
 ventas pronostico de ventas
145 140 160
135
120 120 140
105 110 120
100 100
90 100
80

Axis Title
80
60
40
20
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
meses meses

Column C Linear (Column C)

Column D Column E
semana venta (miles de galonesn=3 n=4 Error Pronostico n3 E. P. Al Cuadrado n3
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23 19.2 3.8 14.4
5 18 21.4 20.7 -3.4 11.6
6 16 19.7 20.2 -3.7 13.7
7 20 18 18.05 2 4.0
8 18 18.4 18.6 -0.4 0.2
9 22 18.2 18.4 3.8 14.4
10 20 20.4 19.7 -0.4 0.2
11 15 20.2 20.4 -5.2 27.0
12 22 17.9 18.1 4.1 16.8
102.3
11.4
Error Pronostico n4 E. P. Al Cuadrado n4

N3
120
102.3
100
-2.7 7.3 80
-4.2 17.6
60
1.95 3.8
40
-0.600000000000001 0.4 - - 27.0
20 0.3999999999 16.8
14.4 11.6 13.7 0.3999999999
14.4
3.6 13.0 3.8 0.2 -5.2 4.1
4.0 0.2 3.8 99999
-3.4 -3.7 2 99999
0
0.300000000000001 0.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-5.4 29.2 -20

3.9 15.2 Error Pronostico n3 Linear (Error Pronostico n3)

86.5 E. P. Al Cuadrado n3
10.8

100
N4
86.5
80

60

40 29.2
17.6 -
20
7.3 0.6000000000.300000000 15.2
13.0
3.8 000001
1.95 0.4 3.6 000001
0.1 3.9
0
-2.7 -4.2 -5.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
-20

Error Pronostico n4 E. P. Al Cuadrado n4

3
102.3

- - 27.0
0.3999999999 16.8
14.4
999999999 11.4
0.2 -5.2 4.1
0.2 3.8 99999
99999
8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Linear (Error Pronostico n3)

N4
86.5

29.2
-
0.300000000 15.2
13.0
600000000 10.8
0.4 3.6 000001
5000001 0.1 3.9
-5.4
8 9 10 11 12 13 14

E. P. Al Cuadrado n4
Meses Ventas Pronostico N3 Error Pronostico N3 E. P. Al Cuadrado N3
1 80
2 82
3 84
4 83 82 1 1
5 83 83 0 0
6 84 83 1 0
7 85 83 2 3
8 84 84 0 0
9 82 84 -2 5
10 83 84 -1 0
11 84 83 1 1
12 83 83 0 0
11
1

Meses Ventas Pronostico N4 Error Pronostico N4 E. P. Al Cuadrado N4

1 80
2 82
3 84
4 83
5 83 82 1 1
6 84 83 1 1
7 85 84 2 2
8 84 84 0 0
9 82 84 -2 4
10 83 84 -1 1
11 84 84 1 0
12 83 83 0 0
9
1

N=3 Ponderado
Meses Ventas Pronostico N3 Porcentaje Error Pronostico N3
1 80 10%
2 82 35%
3 84 55%
4 83 83 0
5 83 83 0
6 84 83 1
7 85 84 1
 8 84 84 0
9 82 84 -2
10 83 83 0
11 84 83 1
12 83 83 0
 N3
12 11
10

6 5

4 3
2 2 1
1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0
0 -1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-2 -2

-4

Error Pronostico N3 E. P. Al Cuadrado N3

N4
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-2

-4

Error Pronostico N4 E. P. Al Cuadrado N4

E. P. Al Cuadrado N3
PONDERADO N3
12

10
0
8
0
1 6
2 4

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-2

-4
 10

4
0 2
6
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2 -2

0 -4
10
Error Pronostico N3 E. P. Al Cuadrado N3
1
 11

1
0
1 12 13 14

12 13 14

10 11 12 13 14
10 11 12 13 14

drado N3
Meses Ventas Pronostico N3 Pronostico N5 Error Pronostico N E.P. Al Cuadrado N3
1 105
2 135
3 120
4 105 120.75 -15.75 248.0625
5 90 117 -27 729
6 120 102 107.55 18 324
7 145 107.25 115.05 37.75 1425.0625
8 140 123.75 122.15 16.25 264.0625
9 100 136.5 123.25 -36.5 1332.25
10 80 123.25 115.1 -43.25 1870.5625
11 100 101 109.8 -1 1
12 120 94 111.15 26 676
6870
763.333333333333
-663.333333333333

N3
8000 4000
7000 3500
6000 3000
5000 2500
4000 2000
3000 1500
2000 1000
1000 500
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1000 -500
-2000 -1000

Error Pronostico N3 E.P. Al Cuadrado N3 Error Pronostico

 Error Pronostico N5 E.P. Al cuadrado N5 25% 15%
30% 20%
45% 12%
18%
35%

12.45 155.0025
29.95 897.0025
17.85 318.6225
-23.25 540.5625
-35.1 1232.01
-9.8 96.04
8.84999999999999 78.3224999999999
3317.5625
473.9375
-373.9375

N5

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Error Pronostico N5 E.P. Al cuadrado N5

 Vtas Galones
Semana Pronostico Error pronostico E.P. Al cuadrado
( Miles)
1 17
2 21 17 4.00 16.0
3 19 17.8 1.20 1.4 25
4 23 18.0 4.96 24.6
5 18 19.0 - 1.03 1.1 20
6 16 18.8 - 2.83 8.0
7 20 18.3 1.74 3.0 15
8 18 18.6 - 0.61 0.4
10
9 22 18.5 3.51 12.3
10 20 19.2 0.81 0.7
5
11 15 19.4 - 4.35 18.9
12 22 18.5 3.52 12.4
0
98.8 1 2
9.0

Vtas Galones
Semana Promedio Error Pronostico E.P. Al Cuadrado
( Miles)
1 17
25
2 21 17 4.00 16.00
3 19 18.60 0.40 0.16
20
4 23 18.76 4.24 17.98
5 18 20.46 - 2.46 6.03 15
6 16 19.47 - 3.47 12.07
7 20 18.08 1.92 3.67 10
8 18 18.85 - 0.85 0.72
9 22 18.51 3.49 12.18 5
10 20 19.91 0.09 0.01
11 15 19.94 - 4.94 24.44 0
1 2 3
12 22 17.97 4.03 16.27
109.53
9.96
 Alfa: 0,2

Tiempo de venta
25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Vtas Galones ( Miles) Pronostico

Tiempo de venta Alfa: 0,4

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Vtas Galones ( Miles) Promedio

Meses Ventas Promedio Error pronostico E.P. AlCuadrado
1 105 Tiempo d
2 135 105.00 30.00 900.00 160
3 120 123.00 - 3.00 9.00 140
4 105 121.20 - 16.20 262.44
120
5 90 111.48 - 21.48 461.39
100
6 120 98.59 21.41 458.30
7 145 111.44 33.56 1,126.49 80

8 140 131.57 8.43 70.99 60

9 100 136.63 - 36.63 1,341.75 40
10 80 114.65 - 34.65 1,200.76 20
11 100 93.86 6.14 37.69
0
12 110 97.54 12.46 155.14 1 2 3 4 5 6
6,023.95 Ventas
547.63

Meses Ventas Promedio Error Pronostico E.P. Al cuadrado

1 105 Tiemp
2 135 105.00 30.00 900.00 160
3 120 120.00 - - 140
4 105 120.00 - 15.00 225.00
120
5 90 112.50 - 22.50 506.25
100
6 120 101.25 18.75 351.56
7 145 110.63 34.38 1,181.64 80

8 140 127.81 12.19 148.54 60

9 100 133.91 - 33.91 1,149.63 40
10 80 116.95 - 36.95 1,365.53 20
11 100 98.48 1.52 2.32
0
12 110 99.24 10.76 115.81 1 2 3 4 5
5,946.29 Ven
540.57
 Alfa: 0,6
Tiempo de venta

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Ventas Promedio

Alfa: 05
Tiempo de ventas
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Ventas Promedio
Trimestre/Año Utilizacion Pronostico N3 Error Pronostico E.P. Al cuadrado
1 82.5
2 81.3
3 81.3
4 79 81.70 - 2.70 7.29 83
1 76.6 80.53 - 3.93 15.47 82
2 78 78.97 - 0.97 0.93 81
3 78.4 77.87 0.53 0.28 80

4 78 77.67 0.33 0.11 79

78
1 78.8 78.13 0.67 0.44
77
2 78.7 78.40 0.30 0.09
76
3 78.4 78.50 - 0.10 0.01
75
4 80 78.63 1.37 1.87
74
1 80.7 79.03 1.67 2.78 73
2 80.7 79.70 1.00 1.00 1 2

3 80.8 80.47 0.33 0.11

4 80.73 30.39
2.53 97.47

Trimestre/Año Utilizacion Pronostico N4 Error Pronostico E.P. Al cuadrado

1 82.5
2 81.3 83
3 81.3 82
4 79 81
1 76.6 81.025 -4.425 19.580625 80

2 78 79.55 -1.55 2.4025 79

78
3 78.4 78.725 -0.325 0.105625
77
4 78 78 0 0
76
1 78.8 77.75 1.05 1.1025
75
2 78.7 78.3 0.4 0.16
74
3 78.4 78.475 -0.075 0.005625 73
4 80 78.475 1.525 2.325625 1 2
1 80.7 78.975 1.725 2.975625
2 80.7 79.45 1.25 1.5625
3 80.8 79.95 0.85 0.7225
4 80.55 -80.55 6488.3025
6519.245625
592.65869318182 -492.658693
Trimestre/Año Utilizacion Pronostico Error Pronostico E.P. Al cuadrado
1 82.5
2 81.3 82.50 - 1.20 1.44
3 81.3 82.02 - 0.72 0.52
4 79 81.73 - 2.73 7.46 83
1 76.6 80.64 - 4.04 16.32 82
81
80
79
78
 83
82
2 78 79.02 - 1.02 1.05 81
3 78.4 78.61 - 0.21 0.05 80
4 78 78.53 - 0.53 0.28 79
1 78.8 78.32 0.48 0.23 78
2 78.7 78.51 0.19 0.04 77

3 78.4 78.59 - 0.19 0.03 76

75
4 80 78.51 1.49 2.22
74
1 80.7 79.11 1.59 2.54
73
2 80.7 79.74 0.96 0.91 1 2
3 80.8 80.13 0.67 0.45
4 80.40 - 80.40 6,463.50
6,497.04
433.14 -333.135791
Trimestre/Año Utilizacion Pronostico Error Pronostico E.P. Al cuadrado
1 82.5
2 81.3 82.50 - 1.20 1.44
3 81.3 81.90 - 0.60 0.36
4 79 81.60 - 2.60 6.76 83
1 76.6 80.30 - 3.70 13.69 82
2 78 78.45 - 0.45 0.20 81
3 78.4 78.23 0.18 0.03 80

4 78 78.31 - 0.31 0.10 79

78
1 78.8 78.16 0.64 0.41
77
2 78.7 78.48 0.22 0.05
76
3 78.4 78.59 - 0.19 0.04
75
4 80 78.49 1.51 2.27
74
1 80.7 79.25 1.45 2.11 73
2 80.7 79.97 0.73 0.53 1 2

3 80.8 80.34 0.46 0.21

4 80.57 - 80.57 6,491.27
6,519.47
434.63 - 334.63
 Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Utilizacion Pronostico N3

Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Utilizacion Pronostico N4

Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
 Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Utilizacion Pronostico

Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Utilizacion Pronostico