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Poisson Distribution

Le document traite de divers problèmes statistiques liés aux distributions de Poisson et binomiale, en se concentrant sur le calcul des probabilités d'événements tels que le nombre d'erreurs dans des livrets, d'accidents sur une route, et de microchips défectueux. Il aborde également des scénarios impliquant des échantillons de poissons et d'ordres dans un magasin, ainsi que des erreurs dans des données saisies. Les solutions impliquent l'utilisation de distributions approximatives pour simplifier les calculs de probabilité.

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2 vues20 pages

Poisson Distribution

Le document traite de divers problèmes statistiques liés aux distributions de Poisson et binomiale, en se concentrant sur le calcul des probabilités d'événements tels que le nombre d'erreurs dans des livrets, d'accidents sur une route, et de microchips défectueux. Il aborde également des scénarios impliquant des échantillons de poissons et d'ordres dans un magasin, ainsi que des erreurs dans des données saisies. Les solutions impliquent l'utilisation de distributions approximatives pour simplifier les calculs de probabilité.

Transféré par

snishita009
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
Nous prenons très au sérieux les droits relatifs au contenu. Si vous pensez qu’il s’agit de votre contenu, signalez une atteinte au droit d’auteur ici.
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20 -2023 * ae ‘March 2020 9709_62 Q1 ‘The booklets produced by a certain publisher contain, on average, 1 incorrect letter per 300000 letters, and these errors occur randomly. A randomly chosen booklet from this publisher contains 12500 letters. Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that this booklet contains at least errors. G8 1: BocaoleHes, ~:0.42 05 %* I2G00leties PCK>D = 1-€° "(1-042 -0.067 March 2020 9709_62.Q4 «The number of accidents on a certain road has a Poisson distribution with mean 0.4 per 50-day period. (a) Find the probability that there will be fewer than 3 accidents during a year (365 days). (b) The probability that there will be @accidey during a period of n days is greater than 0.95. Find the largest possible value of m 3) iO) a. 0-4 Sede m2 2-92 % : B6Gday XK ~ PoC 2.92) PC<<3) = PCo,1,2) a en b. 0-4: S0dey + 4242 ) 0.441 Y = [dow xX~Po (0.0080) P:8) = € roonee e "> 0945 Nn: 1n0.9§ = 6.4) -0.008n Ine > In0.9g -0.009 <7deys 6days Ps ‘Onaverage, | in 400 microchips made ata certain factory are faulty. The numberof faulty microchips ina random sample of 1000 is denoted by X. w (a) State the distribution of X, giving the values of any parameters. a (®) State an approximating distribution for X, giving the values of any parameters. a (©) Use this approximating distribution to find each ofthe following. © PX =4), 2 Gb P250 Gws binomal condikios sobshéd XV B (1000, 0.0026) X~Po(2-5) 25 c Px:4): @ x 2§ : 0134 at jz. 0(2,3,0 + @7°( 28 28 +25). 0.604 \/ Q@. Foon! = 1-75 40 - “ Xrfo(.76) + l-e | : 0.26 J March 2022 9709_62.07 (a) Two ponds, A and B, each contain a large numberof fish. It is known that 2.4% of fish in pond A are carp and 1.89% of fish in pond B are carp. Random samples of 50 fish from pond A and 60 fish from pond B are selected. s (@ The samples contain atleast 2 carp from pond AlGidat least 2 carp from pond B. [3] (Gi) The samples contain atleast 4 carp altogether. 8) (b) The random variables X and ¥ hve the distributions Po(2) and Po(u) respectively. It is given © PEX=0)=[P(Y=0)P, = A[P(Y = 1)P, where kis a non-zero constant. Qi. 0.02440: 1.2 0.018x 60: 10g <5 “a P(K22)> I-Plxc2) = I-e (irt2) = 0.337 POC 2) 2% |-PCKe2) » 1-@ (iel08)« oxy / 0.337 «0.294: 0-099) ti, X~ Po(-2+ 1-08) X~ Po (2-28) P(X>4) = I-P(xe4) ate 2.297 229’) 21-€ (142-28 +228 +228 / 20.197 b. y~ Po(r) Y~Po(w) P(xz0):e” Plyz0):e% er: er. Az QW 1 © pCX:2)2 ® 2 al + eeu ; . 2 » Gita: Plxs2)= PPCy=1) Plysi)= Ow eau: k(Ew) =e Bw: ke we OL: permis s> R-2 March 2023 9709_62 Q2 The number of orders arriving at a shop during an 8-hour working day is modelled by the random variable X with distribution Po(25.2). 5 (a) State two assumptions that are required for the Poisson model to be valid in this context. [2] (b) (Find the probability that the number of orders that arrive in a randomly chosen 3-hour period is between 3 and 5 inclusive. 131 (ii) Find the probability that, in f@@lFaROily chosen I-hour periods, exactly 1 order will arrive in one of the 1-hour periods, and at least 2 orders will arrive in the other 1-hour period. [4] (©) The shop can only deal with a maximum of 120 orders during any 36-hour period. Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that, in a randomly chosen 36-hour period, there will be too many orders for the shop to deal with. (4) ai Orders ame at & constent naan rato Ordos ortie ok yandan Y Singly bi. 252.8 m2 4-45 x +3 -4. 2 gat g, P(3120) PCx > 120.6) XV CI3.4, 113. 4) P(2z 50.667) \-g (0.667) = 1-0-7477 = 0.252 June 2020 9709_61 Q5 yhosen at random, (a) Aweel (@ Find the probability that the team scores a total of 4 goals in their two matches. fea) (ii) Find the probability that the team scores a total of 4 goals, with more goals scored in the home match than in the away match. B) (©) Justify the use of the approximating distribution used in part (b). Ww pe ae) 2 K—~Po (2.9 eC: 4) ~ 2.4" 20.162 aT we PCHrA24 and H>A) Possibilibes H A Boras ona PCH23 ond A: 1 eras wae = 0.224%0-1996 2 0.036 PCH24) and A200) 2 e7*4 29% yer? hh + 0-004 70.0944 yowZ b. In lowmbks totel gonls ae %~Po(lor2 9) X~ Po (29) A=24 DIG thug Nomel ciPPx. XN (24,24) P(x<28) = P (x2 24. 5) Mi SN P(2<-0.9 36 (OB ¢ ) Se 07 20.202 ©, 24 is luge -. Az 226 June 2020 9709_62.03 In the data-entry department of a certain firm, it is known that 0.12% of data items are entered incorrectly, and that these errors occur randomly and independently. meee e200 ta lc Te eis se ae bea os -orrectly entered is denoted by X. @ State the distribution of X, including the values of any parameters. aw Sue an approprise oppeorinating danibuion for X, Including the valees of sny parameter Justify your choice of approximating distribution. i) (iii) Use your approximating distribution to find P(X > 2). @ ‘The probability that the sample contains 1 Use an approximating distribution to find the largest possible value of n. 3) ai. X~6(3600,0.0012) X~Po(432) © and Bio >bo / we) PCX>2) = I-P(o,1,2) 2 |e eR (| 64.32 + 422") : 0.809 b. X~Po (0.0012n) P(x 20) . 0.00120 -0.0012n Ine >In0.) ec 7 Ol 2198-8 » 1G19 1L146G.8 nz 4ls June 2020 9709_62Q5 (a) The random variable X has the distribution Po(2). 9 @ State the values that X can take. uy) Itis given that P(X = 1) = 3 x P(X = 0). Gi) Finda. fe) Gii) Find P(4 < X <6). 2) (b) The random variable ¥ has the distribution Po(j1) where is large. Using a suitable approximating distribution, itis found that P(Y < 46) = 0.0668, correct to 4 decimal places. Find p. (5] ai. O, [, 2,3... / oY “ry (49,6) = €% ae) qs Bl gl 20-314 iy b. X~Po(w) X~NCw, v) PL ye4s) = PCY<4S-5) P(2¢4GE-4 ) = 0.933 | Khsna mre wna TMU VM POOs S150 @7'(0.433) = 1.600 4G.9-0 = -1-900 2 V0 49.9-y ~1-g00Sy f- p 4G.5-P*= -1.G00P P2- |.G00P-4G.G P: 7.937 or P:~6.03876 NIA w= 56-6 June 2021 9709_61 QL Accidents at two factories occur randomly and independently. On average, the numbers of accidents per month are 3.1 at factory A and 1.7 at factory B. Find the probability that the total number of accidents in the two factories during a 2-month period is ‘more than 3, {4) [Link] 2: 62 1.72 > 3.4 X~Po(6.2+3.4) x~Pe(4.6) SY P(x >3) L~ P(0,1,2,3) : 1-e “(egos 8e ae’) = 0.986 June 2021 9709_61 QS 10 (On average, 1 in 75.000 adults has a certain genetic disorder. (@) Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that, in a random sample of 10000 people, at least 1 has the genetic disorder. BI (b) Ina random sample of people, where 1 is large, the probability that no-one has the genetic disorder is more than 0.9. 12 \o0ee > Go np: 10000 «4. 103 <§ ‘79000 x~w 8( looeo 1 a PO i) = I= Plo) JS = -e@*3 . 0.125 b. Plaxo): em >0o-4 Ine > In 0-4 76000 -N >In 0-4 x 7§000 n= 7902 June 20219706 62.07 Cisomes ave at parc sop tab ines. thas ben fund hat he mean nue Catone hou Gonng Smite ale } | (o) Finite ohbiy hat exactly conor av dng 10-mit neal 2 (b) Find the probability that at least 4 customers arrive during a 20-minute interval. 2 (©) Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that fewer than 40 customers arrive during a 2-hour interval. a Pcxed) = ouu2. 0.144 J b. PUx94)= Fina (iv ourod +2.) = 0.963 ue a1 Bt CG. 2-4: Gea % | (20mia X~L NW (G0-4,50.4) P(XxS4O) = PCr<398) P(2-1.538) 1-0(1.636) 20.0624 (4) 2+G04 > IS June 2021 9706_63. 05 Most plants of a certain type have thre leaves. However, itis known that, on average, | in 10000 of these plants have four leaves, and plants with four leaves are called ‘lucky’. The number of lucky plants in a random sample of 25 000 plans is denoted by X. (2) State, witha justification, an approxiniating distribution forX, giving the values of any parameters. 2 Use your approximating distribution to answer parts (b) and (c). (b) Find POC <3), eR (©) Given that PX = h) = 2P(X = k+ 1), find ke a “The number of lucky plants in a random sample of m plants, where 1s large, is denoted by Y. (2) Given that POF >) = 0963, comet wo 3 significa figures, sea stable approximating distribution to find the value of a. P2) x2Go0o: 25 <5 N:%yaorso {0000 b. P(x43)~ P(O,1,2,3) Cee) = 0.75 SW 2! 3 =t.G nh et wet C. & ¥25 (i *25 bp ebnSe¥ kl (hel RE Pl PrbeSr PS» (hr) +2 ae Prins eal 22 R:4] 5 da. np:_n PCy>1) +0-463 {0000 X~Po(/a_ l- e*: # O 963 in 0.037: eas ln 0.037 xloceo: -3296¢ n:33000 lee 2. June 2022 9709_61 Q5 Cars arrive at a fuel station at random and at a constant average rate of 13.5 per hour. (a) Find the probability that more than 4 cars arrive during a 20-minute period. BI (B) Use an approximating distribution to find the probability that the number of cars that arrive during a 12-hour period is between 150 and 160 inclusive. 4) Independently of cars, trucks arrive at the fuel station at random and at a constant average rate of 3.6 per 15-minute period. (©) Find the probability that the total number of cars and trucks arriving at the fuel station during a 10-minute period is more than 3 and less than 7. BI Q) 13.9: thes 2: 4G a ‘Drow Xr Po( 4-5) p(xp>a) » I PCo,1,2,3,4) whe “(irs5e48 4 4s") - nen ‘TOU 6) 13-Sxi2+ 162 ~NCl62, 162, orien ieay Tea tbo br tbs thee P(144.6¢% ¢ 100.6) P(-0.992 < 2<-01118) 6(049$2) - G(o-118) 0-837 -0-947 *0-290 C) 2.6: 24 ailo SO 27.28 XE Po (4.65) P(B6xe7) = PCG, 6) 465 (acs , 46S", 465° ee (BEE AI eS ) 20.404 June 2022 9709_62 03 Itis known that 1.8% of children in a ce: c ‘of 200 children in thi country have not been vaccinated against measles. A I4 bility that there are fewer than 3 children (a) (b) Justify your approximating distribution, a a. 0.018x200: 3.6 2S rts) PORE)» PC.) Xe Po(3.6 xC3 0, 1,2, eCisage) som SS b. B.6G0 June 2022 9709_63. 05 ute period, not all the clients who 2 tion to find the probability that, during a randomly choses ve at the desk a) 2.22.2 Q. ais 2766 P(x:6) = es 66° 70.186 SJ b. P(X >4) - r e123, 4) : [-e * (ie 2242.2" +2.2742.2" = = 0.0725 war a 3 é 255 Cc. 228 u:164 > 16 €( xe 20) XW (26-4, 26 a) PCKC 19-6) P(z c-1.343) 1- (1.243) = 1-0.9104 2» 0.08% Jo tune 2023 9700.62 2 In a certain country, 20540 adults out of a population of 6012300 have a degree in medicine, the probability that, in 4 adults who have a dé (b)_ Justify the approximating distribution used in part (a). a. P. 0.08342 NP: 3.463 §o p(Kea) = |- ee’ 13.4163 + 3.4163 aug) Oy = 0.5 Vr b. 3-4163¢G 1000 >GO ‘State the relationship between E(W) and Var(W). w Use the 1 E(X) and Var(X) to explain why it is necessary for p to be close to 0 for this to be a reasonable approximation. a (© Given that ¥ has the distribution B (20000, 0.00007), use a Poisson distribution to calculate an estimate of P(Y > 2). 8 a. Eby)» Vaclw) S/ b. nPX nP(I-P) hence I-P must Le Close do ! c. X~Po(14) Ply>2)_ =~ I- P(o,1,2) . Ine bees kee 20.167 2! June 2023 9709_62 04 ‘The ou of books ved ata charity shop has a Constant mean of 5.1 per day. @ Ss text, one condition for X to be modelled by a Poisson distribution, w ‘Assume now that X can be modelled by a Poisson distribution, (®) Find the probability that exactly 10 books are re Jina 3-day period. 2 (©) Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that more than 180 books are received in a 30-day period. a) a. Musk be independent b X~Pol3xG.1) x—~ Po (15.8 PCxzI0) = _e3( 19.3)" = 0.0439 lo! 6. X—~Po(163) xX 1V(163, 168) P(x > 180) Dr..w ewer PND FOos P(2 2-223) 1- 62.228) 1-0-9869 20.013) d. P(2-81G:1) 2 x~ Po(7.6) P(x>3) = I-P(o,1,2,3) 1-778 (1+ 7.6 26 e 2.0) 2 0.946 zt Bs June 2023 9709_63 Q6 It is known that 1 in $000 people in Atalia have a certain condition. A random sample of 12500 people from Atala is chosen for a medical trial. The number having the Condition is denoted by X. 9 (@) Use an appropriate approximating distribution to find P(X < 3). a (b) Find the values of E(X) and Var(X), and explain how your answers suggest that the approximating distribution used in (a) is likely to be appropriate. el a. X~fo(2.6) oes Le oe 25+ 28s 128) 2 0758 ! 1 b. EC: ap «25 np2g Vae(x}: 2-6 nz 12900 >Go “bmosk OA), October 2020 9709 611 in 300 flowers of a certain kind are white. A random sample of to find the probability that more than 1 flower in BI (b) Justify the a in part (a). mw The probability indomly chosen flower of another kind is white is 0.02. A random sample of 150 of these lected. to find the probability that the total GO. 14. «200 = 0.6667 goo P(x>iI) I-P@1) 16M (Iroasr) 20.144 b. 0.6667 60 SJ C. X~Po(3+0-6667) X~Po (3.6667) PUXCEY =z CPP, 143.4667 + 3.66627 « 3.4667" ) 2 0.90! 2! 3 21 October 2020 9709_61Q5 ‘The number of absences per week by workers at a factory has the distribution Po(2.1). (a) Find the standard deviation of the number of absences per week. (b)_ Find the probability that the number of absences in a 2-week period is atleast 2 GI (©) Find the probability that than 8 number of absenc: a. seis (444 J b- X~Po0(4.2) P(x32) = Pl.) = Ike (1+#%2) 2 0-922 Cc X~Po(6-3) P(4Cxz8) = P(G,6,72 e**(63"s 6.3% 63”) 20.455 Se 1 6: 4 a [Link] period is more than 4 and less October 2020 9709_62 Q1 1 ‘On average, | in 50.000 people have a certain gene. Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that more than 2 people in a random sample of 150000 have the gene. al « 1G0000-: 3 Yan00 x~ Po(B P(x>2) = 1-P (0,42 -@*(1+ 342") 20.977 2 October 2020 9709_62 05 Casto distribution. ty Tt is now given that the number of customers arriving per minute has the distribution Po(2.3). (b) Find the probability that exactly 3 customers arrive during a 1-minute period. RQ) (© Find the probability that more than 3 customers arrive during a 2-minute period. GB) (2) Fie mint prinds as chosen at random. Find the probably that wo cstomes ave during exactly 2 of these 5 periods. a) Fndeperdent . , vb) p(K73): 2 ~23 Yon 3! ©) Ro(4.6) P(x>3) 2 I-P(o, 42,3) 2 1S (1 be eb 6" 46" ) = 0.674 a) xX~ Pol 23), P(xz0): @ Jn (s)«e*)* (ce?) 100732 October 2021 9709_61 02 3 . ‘The number of enquiries received per day at a customer service desk has a Poisson distribution with mean 45.2. If more than 60 enquiries are received in a day, the customer service desk cannot deal with them al. Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that, on a randomly chosen day, the ‘customer service desk cannot deal with all the enquiries that are received, 4) X~ Fo (49. 2) PCx x60) P(x >60-6) P(2>2.276) |- 0(2.276) SY I- 0.49666 20.0114 KLIN C4G.2, 46.2) LG October 2021 9709.61 052 (@) The proportion of people having a particular medical condition is 1 in 100000. A random sample cf 2500 people is obtained. The number of people inthe sample having the condition is denoted byX. @ State, with a justification, a suitable approximating distribution for X, giving the values of any parameters. el ii) Use the approximating distribution to calculate P(X > 0). R 2 9p388 8 (250, 1) fi) X~ Po (0.028) POx>0) = I-29, 0.0247 October 2021 9709_62 Q5a & OSc ZO 6 rnin pti ha err fever han 3 ingens 10 randomly chosen pgs. (2 (©) Find the probability that the total number of typing and formatting errors in 20 randomly chosen pages is between 8 and 11 inclusive GB) a. X~Po(2) 2 P(xe3) = € (\+2+2 ) = 0.677 2 c. X~ Poo) PCEExEN1) = PCB,4, (0,0) e°”°( 10% + 10" 410s cm) 20.477 Ss a! to October 2022 9709_61 Q3 Drops of water fall randomly from a leaking tap at a constant average rate of 5.2 per minute. 2.7 co Find ine probabil that test’ drops fil ding a randomly chosen 30second period (3 (b) Use a suitable approximating distribution to find the probability that at least 650 drops fall during a randomly chosen 2-hour period 5.2550 a. Fo(2-6) » PCx> 3) xi I-P(0,1,2) + l- ~€ (lr 26+26 ) 20-482 b. §.2:1 22614 a+ 120 Xv 624,624) P(X>6G0) - PCX>644.6) P(2> 1-021) |-.021) + 1-0.€463: O154 October 2022 9709_62 03 1.6% of adults in a certain town ride a bicycle. A random sample of 200 adults from this town is 4 selected, ride a bicycle, (4) @) (b) Justify your approximating distribution, a. 32 PC3.20 PCx>3) = I- Plo, 1,4. i-e*"(1 t B2+B.2*s 3.2? 20-397 a 4! b. 9265 Nz%o>GSo The number of calls received at a small call centre has a Poisson distribution with mean 2.4 calls per, S-minute period ) (a)_ Find the probability of exactly 4 calls in an 8-minute period, RI (b) Find the probability of at least 3 calls in a 3-minute period BI ed at a large call centre has a Poisson distribution with mean 41 calls per The number of calls re 5-minute period. (©) Use an approximating distribution to find the probability that the number of calls received in a S-minute period is between 41 and 59 inclusive. {5} a 2-4: wm:3.34 Ss 'e P(x: 4) = << (3.8) 2 0198 | f/ b 2-4: S$ mw: “Lad 1:3 P(x 2.3) = _I-P(0,1,2) [-O° (1 hear Laer ) = 0.176 2! Cc. X~ Cui, a) PC 44x99) P(a0.6¢ «<6 59.6) P(-0.07% <2e 2.889) O(2-¢89) - (4.- 600.078) 0.4991-0-4664 » 0.6292 \ I

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