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Time Forecasting

Das Dokument enthält eine detaillierte Analyse von Asthma-Daten über 36 Monate, einschließlich der Berechnung von Fehlern wie MAE, RMSE und MAPE. Es werden verschiedene Prognosemethoden wie Naïve, 3MA und WMA verglichen, um die Genauigkeit der Vorhersagen zu bewerten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen signifikante Abweichungen in den Fehlern, die für die Verbesserung von Vorhersagemodellen relevant sind.

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0% fanden dieses Dokument nützlich (0 Abstimmungen)
7 Ansichten73 Seiten

Time Forecasting

Das Dokument enthält eine detaillierte Analyse von Asthma-Daten über 36 Monate, einschließlich der Berechnung von Fehlern wie MAE, RMSE und MAPE. Es werden verschiedene Prognosemethoden wie Naïve, 3MA und WMA verglichen, um die Genauigkeit der Vorhersagen zu bewerten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen signifikante Abweichungen in den Fehlern, die für die Verbesserung von Vorhersagemodellen relevant sind.

Hochgeladen von

ronald.justin.ragasa
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
Wir nehmen die Rechte an Inhalten ernst. Wenn Sie vermuten, dass dies Ihr Inhalt ist, beanspruchen Sie ihn hier.
Verfügbare Formate
Als XLSX, PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen

Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er

1 1380
2 1152 1380 -228 228 51984 0.197916667
3 1471 1152 319 319 101761 0.216859279
4 1494 1471 23 23 529 0.015394913
5 2029 1494 535 535 286225 0.263676688
6 2402 2029 373 373 139129 0.155287261
7 3256 2402 854 854 729316 0.262285012
8 3189 3256 -67 67 4489 0.021009721
9 3507 3189 318 318 101124 0.090675791
10 3656 3507 149 149 22201 0.040754923
11 2513 3656 -1143 1143 1306449 0.454834859
12 2577 2513 64 64 4096 0.02483508
13 1250 2577 -1327 1327 1760929 1.0616
14 1261 1250 11 11 121 0.008723236
15 1535 1261 274 274 75076 0.178501629
16 1143 1535 -392 392 153664 0.34295713
17 2333 1143 1190 1190 1416100 0.510072868
18 2721 2333 388 388 150544 0.142594634
19 2998 2721 277 277 76729 0.09239493
20 4229 2998 1231 1231 1515361 0.291085363
21 3126 4229 -1103 1103 1216609 0.352847089
22 3003 3126 -123 123 15129 0.040959041
23 2174 3003 -829 829 687241 0.381324747
24 2488 2174 314 314 98596 0.126205788
25 2128 2488 -360 360 129600 0.169172932
26 2056 2128 -72 72 5184 0.035019455
27 1926 2056 -130 130 16900 0.067497404
28 1825 1926 -101 101 10201 0.055342466
29 2215 1825 390 390 152100 0.176072235
30 2192 2215 -23 23 529 0.010492701
31 2392 2192 200 200 40000 0.08361204
32 2338 2392 -54 54 2916 0.023096664
33 1973 2338 -365 365 133225 0.184997466
34 2368 1973 395 395 156025 0.166807432
35 2574 2368 206 206 42436 0.08003108
36 2353 2574 -221 221 48841 0.093922652
MAE 390.25 10651359 6.418861175
RMSE 543.940331
MAPE 17.83%
MASE
Column1 Naïve 3MA WMA
MAE 390.25 512.4814815 445.5027778
RMSE 543.9403307 112.8800926 839.4871268
MAPE 17.83% 23% 20%
MASE 1 1 1
ASE 3MA WMA EMA Raw Error
#N/A
0.584240871 1380
0.817424728 1288.8
0.058936579 1334.33 1361.65 1361.68 159.67
1.370916079 1372.33 1435.8 1414.608 656.67
0.955797566 1664.67 1784.8 1660.3648 737.33
2.188340807 1975.00 2153.9 1957.01888 1281.00
0.171684817 2562.33 2815.75 2476.611328 626.67
0.814862268 2949.00 3091.05 2761.566797 558.00
0.381806534 3317.33 3373.95 3059.740078 338.67
2.928891736 3450.67 3541.25 3298.244047 -937.67
0.163997438 3225.33 3005 2984.146428 -648.33
3.400384369 2915.33 2719.65 2821.287857 -1665.33
0.02818706 2113.33 1837.55 2192.772714 -852.33
0.702114029 1696.00 1455.1 1820.063628 -161.00
1.004484305 1348.67 1410.05 1706.038177 -205.67
3.049327354 1313.00 1278.3 1480.822906 1020.00
0.994234465 1670.33 1856.3 1821.693744 1050.67
0.709801409 2065.67 2367.9 2181.416246 932.33
3.154388213 2684.00 2815.15 2508.049748 1545.00
2.826393338 3316.00 3633.5 3196.429849 -190.00
0.315182575 3451.00 3437.7 3168.257909 -448.00
2.124279308 3452.67 3223.8 3102.154746 -1278.67
0.804612428 2767.67 2565.5 2730.892847 -279.67
0.922485586 2555.00 2471.05 2633.735708 -427.00
0.184497117 2263.33 2242.9 2431.441425 -207.33
0.333119795 2224.00 2142.4 2281.264855 -298.00
0.258808456 2036.67 1995.3 2139.158913 -211.67
0.999359385 1935.67 1889.95 2013.495348 279.33
0.058936579 1988.67 2054.65 2094.097209 203.33
0.512491992 2077.33 2143.85 2133.258325 314.67
0.138372838 2266.33 2305.45 2236.754995 71.67
0.935297886 2307.33 2332.3 2277.252997 -334.33
1.012171685 2234.33 2145.35 2155.551798 133.67
0.527866752 2226.33 2245 2240.531079 347.67
0.566303652 2305.00 2422.05 2373.918647 48.00
36
MAE
RMSE
1 MAPE
MASE
EMA
515.8888741
661.8276554
24%
0.977912987
Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

159.6666667 25493.44 0.106871932 0.311555973


656.6666667 431211.11 0.323640545 1.281347113
737.3333333 543660.44 0.306966417 1.438751174
1281 1640961.00 0.393427518 2.499602515
626.6666667 392711.11 0.196508832 1.222808412
558 311364.00 0.159110351 1.088819831
338.6666667 114695.11 0.092633115 0.660836887
937.6666667 879218.78 0.373126409 1.829659608
648.3333333 420336.11 0.25158453 1.265086363
1665.333333 2773335.11 1.332266667 3.249548312
852.3333333 726472.11 0.675918583 1.663149527
161 25921.00 0.104885993 0.314157693
205.6666667 42298.78 0.179935841 0.401315314
1020 1040400.00 0.437205315 1.99031582
1050.666667 1103900.44 0.386132549 2.050155381
932.3333333 869245.44 0.310985101 1.819252728
1545 2387025.00 0.365334594 3.01474308
190 36100.00 0.06078055 0.370745104
448 200704.00 0.149184149 0.874177929
1278.666667 1634988.44 0.58816314 2.495049505
279.6666667 78213.44 0.112406217 0.545710775
427 182329.00 0.200657895 0.833200838
207.3333333 42987.11 0.100843061 0.404567464
298 88804.00 0.154724818 0.581484426
211.6666667 44802.78 0.115981735 0.413023054
279.3333333 78027.11 0.126109857 0.545060345
203.3333333 41344.44 0.092761557 0.396762304
314.6666667 99015.11 0.13154961 0.614005926
71.66666667 5136.11 0.03065298 0.139842451
334.3333333 111778.78 0.1694543 0.652381297
133.6666667 17866.78 0.056447072 0.260822433
347.6666667 120872.11 0.135068635 0.678398497
48 2304.00 0.02039949 0.093661921
16513522.22
512.481481
112.88
23%
1
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

132.35 132.35 17516.5225 0.088587684 0.297080078


593.2 593.2 351886.24 0.292360769 1.331529296
617.2 617.2 380935.84 0.25695254 1.385401014
1102.1 1102.1 1214624.41 0.338482801 2.473834182
373.25 373.25 139315.5625 0.11704296 0.837817447
415.95 415.95 173014.4025 0.118605646 0.933664212
282.05 282.05 79552.2025 0.077147155 0.633104919
-1028.25 1028.25 1057298.063 0.409172304 2.308066417
-428 428 183184 0.166084594 0.960712304
-1469.65 1469.65 2159871.123 1.17572 3.298857097
-576.55 576.55 332409.9025 0.457216495 1.294155792
79.9 79.9 6384.01 0.052052117 0.179347928
-267.05 267.05 71315.7025 0.233639545 0.599435095
1054.7 1054.7 1112392.09 0.452078868 2.367437539
864.7 864.7 747706.09 0.317787578 1.940953105
630.1 630.1 397026.01 0.210173449 1.414357062
1413.85 1413.85 1998971.822 0.334322535 3.173605352
-507.5 507.5 257556.25 0.162348049 1.13916237
-434.7 434.7 188964.09 0.144755245 0.975751492
-1049.8 1049.8 1102080.04 0.482888684 2.35643873
-77.5 77.5 6006.25 0.031149518 0.173960756
-343.05 343.05 117683.3025 0.161207707 0.770028869
-186.9 186.9 34931.61 0.090904669 0.419526004
-216.4 216.4 46828.96 0.112357217 0.485743324
-170.3 170.3 29002.09 0.093315068 0.382264732
325.05 325.05 105657.5025 0.146749436 0.72962508
137.35 137.35 18865.0225 0.062659672 0.308303353
248.15 248.15 61578.4225 0.103741639 0.557011117
32.55 32.55 1059.5025 0.013922156 0.073063517
-359.3 359.3 129096.49 0.182108464 0.806504511
222.65 222.65 49573.0225 0.094024493 0.499772417
329 329 108241 0.127816628 0.738491467
-69.05 69.05 4767.9025 0.029345516 0.154993422
16038.1 12685295.45 7.136721201
MAE 445.502778 704738.6361
RMSE 839.487127
MAPE 20%
MASE 1

4500
4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

-228 228 51984 0.197916667 0.441955645


182.2 182.2 33196.84 0.123861319 0.353176835
132.32 132.32 17508.5824 0.088567604 0.256489346
614.392 614.392 377477.5297 0.302805323 1.190938651
741.6352 741.6352 550022.7699 0.308757369 1.437587119
1298.98112 1298.98112 1687351.95 0.398949975 2.517947537
712.388672 712.388672 507497.62 0.223389361 1.380895592
745.4332032 745.4332032 555670.6604 0.212555804 1.444949175
596.2599219 596.2599219 355525.8945 0.163090788 1.155791396
-785.244047 785.2440468 616608.2131 0.31247276 1.522118592
-407.146428 407.1464281 165768.2139 0.157992405 0.789213431
-1571.28786 1571.287857 2468945.529 1.257030285 3.045787447
-931.772714 931.7727141 868200.3908 0.738915713 1.806150047
-285.063628 285.0636285 81261.27228 0.185709204 0.552567894
-563.038177 563.0381771 317011.9889 0.49259683 1.091394301
852.1770938 852.1770938 726205.7991 0.365270936 1.651861741
899.3062563 899.3062563 808751.7425 0.330505791 1.743217002
816.5837538 816.5837538 666809.0269 0.272376169 1.582867541
1720.950252 1720.950252 2961669.771 0.406940235 3.335893326
-70.4298486 70.42984865 4960.363581 0.022530342 0.136521356
-165.257909 165.2579092 27310.17655 0.055030939 0.320336254
-928.154746 928.1547455 861471.2316 0.426934106 1.799136969
-242.892847 242.8928473 58996.93527 0.097625742 0.470823969
-505.735708 505.7357084 255768.6067 0.237657758 0.980319084
-375.441425 375.441425 140956.2636 0.182607697 0.727756391
-355.264855 355.264855 126213.1172 0.184457349 0.688646088
-314.158913 314.158913 98695.82262 0.17214187 0.60896625
201.5046522 201.5046522 40604.12486 0.090972755 0.390597011
97.90279132 97.90279132 9584.956547 0.044663682 0.189774962
258.7416748 258.7416748 66947.25427 0.108169596 0.501545367
101.2450049 101.2450049 10250.55101 0.043304108 0.196253515
-304.252997 304.2529971 92569.88623 0.154208311 0.589764603
212.4482018 212.4482018 45134.23843 0.089716301 0.411810009
333.4689211 333.4689211 111201.5213 0.129552805 0.646396807
-20.9186474 20.91864737 437.5898077 0.008890203 0.040548747
18571.99947 15768570.43 8.588168103
MAE 515.888874 438015.8454
RMSE 661.827655
MAPE 24%
MASE 0.97791299

Chart Title
Chart Title

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Asthma_nos
Naïve
3MA
WMA
EMA
MASE
MASE
MASE

31 32 33 34 35 36
(empty)
Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380 -228 228 51984
3 1471 1152 319 319 101761
4 1494 1471 23 23 529
5 2029 1494 535 535 286225
6 2402 2029 373 373 139129
7 3256 2402 854 854 729316
8 3189 3256 -67 67 4489
9 3507 3189 318 318 101124
10 3656 3507 149 149 22201
11 2513 3656 -1143 1143 1306449
12 2577 2513 64 64 4096
13 1250 2577 -1327 1327 1760929
14 1261 1250 11 11 121
15 1535 1261 274 274 75076
16 1143 1535 -392 392 153664
17 2333 1143 1190 1190 1416100
18 2721 2333 388 388 150544
19 2998 2721 277 277 76729
20 4229 2998 1231 1231 1515361
21 3126 4229 -1103 1103 1216609
22 3003 3126 -123 123 15129
23 2174 3003 -829 829 687241
24 2488 2174 314 314 98596
25 2128 2488 -360 360 129600
26 2056 2128 -72 72 5184
27 1926 2056 -130 130 16900
28 1825 1926 -101 101 10201
29 2215 1825 390 390 152100
30 2192 2215 -23 23 529
31 2392 2192 200 200 40000
32 2338 2392 -54 54 2916
33 1973 2338 -365 365 133225
34 2368 1973 395 395 156025
35 2574 2368 206 206 42436
36 2353 2574 -221 221 48841
MAE 390.25 10651359
RMSE 543.94033067
MAPE
MASE
Column7 Column8 Column9 Column10 Column11
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA

0.1979166667 0.5842408712 1380


0.2168592794 0.8174247277 1288.8
0.015394913 0.0589365791 1334.3333333 1361.65 1361.68
0.263676688 1.3709160794 1372.3333333 1435.8 1414.608
0.1552872606 0.9557975657 1664.6666667 1784.8 1660.3648
0.2622850123 2.1883408072 1975 2153.9 1957.01888
0.0210097209 0.1716848174 2562.3333333 2815.75 2476.611328
0.0906757913 0.8148622678 2949 3091.05 2761.5667968
0.0407549234 0.3818065343 3317.3333333 3373.95 3059.7400781
0.4548348587 2.9288917361 3450.6666667 3541.25 3298.2440468
0.0248350795 0.1639974375 3225.3333333 3005 2984.1464281
1.0616 3.400384369 2915.3333333 2719.65 2821.2878569
0.0087232355 0.0281870596 2113.3333333 1837.55 2192.7727141
0.1785016287 0.7021140295 1696 1455.1 1820.0636285
0.3429571304 1.0044843049 1348.6666667 1410.05 1706.0381771
0.5100728676 3.0493273543 1313 1278.3 1480.8229062
0.1425946343 0.9942344651 1670.3333333 1856.3 1821.6937437
0.09239493 0.7098014094 2065.6666667 2367.9 2181.4162462
0.291085363 3.1543882127 2684 2815.15 2508.0497477
0.3528470889 2.8263933376 3316 3633.5 3196.4298486
0.040959041 0.3151825753 3451 3437.7 3168.2579092
0.381324747 2.1242793081 3452.6666667 3223.8 3102.1547455
0.1262057878 0.8046124279 2767.6666667 2565.5 2730.8928473
0.1691729323 0.9224855862 2555 2471.05 2633.7357084
0.0350194553 0.1844971172 2263.3333333 2242.9 2431.441425
0.0674974039 0.333119795 2224 2142.4 2281.264855
0.0553424658 0.2588084561 2036.6666667 1995.3 2139.158913
0.1760722348 0.999359385 1935.6666667 1889.95 2013.4953478
0.0104927007 0.0589365791 1988.6666667 2054.65 2094.0972087
0.0836120401 0.5124919923 2077.3333333 2143.85 2133.2583252
0.0230966638 0.1383728379 2266.3333333 2305.45 2236.7549951
0.1849974658 0.935297886 2307.3333333 2332.3 2277.2529971
0.1668074324 1.0121716848 2234.3333333 2145.35 2155.5517982
0.08003108 0.5278667521 2226.3333333 2245 2240.5310789
0.0939226519 0.5663036515 2305 2422.05 2373.9186474
6.4188611748 36

0.1783016993
1
Column12 Column13 Column14 Column15 Column16
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er

159.66666667 159.66666667 25493.444444 0.1068719322


656.66666667 656.66666667 431211.11111 0.3236405454
737.33333333 737.33333333 543660.44444 0.3069664169
1281 1281 1640961 0.3934275184
626.66666667 626.66666667 392711.11111 0.1965088324
558 558 311364 0.1591103507
338.66666667 338.66666667 114695.11111 0.0926331145
-937.66666667 937.66666667 879218.77778 0.3731264093
-648.33333333 648.33333333 420336.11111 0.2515845298
-1665.3333333 1665.3333333 2773335.1111 1.3322666667
-852.33333333 852.33333333 726472.11111 0.6759185831
-161 161 25921 0.1048859935
-205.66666667 205.66666667 42298.777778 0.1799358414
1020 1020 1040400 0.437205315
1050.6666667 1050.6666667 1103900.4444 0.3861325493
932.33333333 932.33333333 869245.44444 0.3109851012
1545 1545 2387025 0.3653345945
-190 190 36100 0.0607805502
-448 448 200704 0.1491841492
-1278.6666667 1278.6666667 1634988.4444 0.5881631401
-279.66666667 279.66666667 78213.444444 0.1124062165
-427 427 182329 0.2006578947
-207.33333333 207.33333333 42987.111111 0.100843061
-298 298 88804 0.1547248183
-211.66666667 211.66666667 44802.777778 0.1159817352
279.33333333 279.33333333 78027.111111 0.126109857
203.33333333 203.33333333 41344.444444 0.0927615572
314.66666667 314.66666667 99015.111111 0.1315496098
71.666666667 71.666666667 5136.1111111 0.0306529798
-334.33333333 334.33333333 111778.77778 0.1694542997
133.66666667 133.66666667 17866.777778 0.0564470721
347.66666667 347.66666667 120872.11111 0.1350686351
48 48 2304 0.02039949
16513522.222
MAE 512.48148148
RMSE 112.88009255
MAPE 0.2289366489
MASE
Column17 Column18 Column19 Column20 Column21
MASE Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er

0.3115559731 132.35 132.35 17516.5225


1.2813471128 593.2 593.2 351886.24
1.4387511744 617.2 617.2 380935.84
2.499602515 1102.1 1102.1 1214624.41
1.2228084122 373.25 373.25 139315.5625
1.0888198309 415.95 415.95 173014.4025
0.6608368866 282.05 282.05 79552.2025
1.8296596083 -1028.25 1028.25 1057298.0625
1.2650863627 -428 428 183184
3.2495483125 -1469.65 1469.65 2159871.1225
1.6631495266 -576.55 576.55 332409.9025
0.3141576931 79.9 79.9 6384.01
0.401315314 -267.05 267.05 71315.7025
1.9903158199 1054.7 1054.7 1112392.09
2.0501553805 864.7 864.7 747706.09
1.8192527282 630.1 630.1 397026.01
3.0147430801 1413.85 1413.85 1998971.8225
0.3707451037 -507.5 507.5 257556.25
0.8741779287 -434.7 434.7 188964.09
2.495049505 -1049.8 1049.8 1102080.04
0.5457107755 -77.5 77.5 6006.25
0.8332008383 -343.05 343.05 117683.3025
0.404567464 -186.9 186.9 34931.61
0.5814844258 -216.4 216.4 46828.96
0.4130230541 -170.3 170.3 29002.09
0.5450603455 325.05 325.05 105657.5025
0.396762304 137.35 137.35 18865.0225
0.6140059261 248.15 248.15 61578.4225
0.1398424514 32.55 32.55 1059.5025
0.6523812965 -359.3 359.3 129096.49
0.2608224326 222.65 222.65 49573.0225
0.6783984968 329 329 108241
0.0936619209 -69.05 69.05 4767.9025
16038.1 12685295.45
MAE 445.50277778 704738.63611
RMSE 839.48712683
MAPE
1 MASE
Column22 Column23 Column24 Column25 Column26
Abs_%_Er MASE Raw Error Abs_Er

-228 228
182.2 182.2
0.0885876841 0.2970800781 132.32 132.32
0.2923607689 1.3315292959 614.392 614.392
0.2569525396 1.3854010138 741.6352 741.6352
0.338482801 2.4738341824 1298.98112 1298.98112
0.1170429602 0.8378174472 712.388672 712.388672
0.1186056459 0.9336642121 745.4332032 745.4332032
0.0771471554 0.6331049189 596.25992192 596.25992192
0.409172304 2.3080664168 -785.24404685 785.24404685
0.1660845945 0.9607123038 -407.14642811 407.14642811
1.17572 3.2988570965 -1571.2878569 1571.2878569
0.4572164948 1.2941557915 -931.77271412 931.77271412
0.0520521173 0.1793479277 -285.06362847 285.06362847
0.2336395451 0.5994350952 -563.03817708 563.03817708
0.4520788684 2.3674375394 852.17709375 852.17709375
0.3177875781 1.9409531054 899.30625625 899.30625625
0.210173449 1.4143570622 816.58375375 816.58375375
0.3343225349 3.1736053523 1720.9502523 1720.9502523
0.1623480486 1.1391623696 -70.42984865 70.42984865
0.1447552448 0.9757514918 -165.25790919 165.25790919
0.4828886845 2.3564387303 -928.15474551 928.15474551
0.0311495177 0.1739607559 -242.89284731 242.89284731
0.1612077068 0.7700288688 -505.73570839 505.73570839
0.0909046693 0.4195260037 -375.44142503 375.44142503
0.112357217 0.4857433237 -355.26485502 355.26485502
0.0933150685 0.3822647321 -314.15891301 314.15891301
0.1467494357 0.7296250803 201.50465219 201.50465219
0.0626596715 0.3083033526 97.902791316 97.902791316
0.1037416388 0.5570111173 258.74167479 258.74167479
0.0139221557 0.0730635175 101.24500487 101.24500487
0.1821084643 0.8065045111 -304.25299708 304.25299708
0.0940244932 0.4997724169 212.44820175 212.44820175
0.1278166278 0.7384914672 333.46892105 333.46892105
0.0293455164 0.1549934219 -20.918647368 20.918647368
7.1367212013 18571.999467
MAE 515.88887409
RMSE
0.1982422556 MAPE
1 MASE
Column27 Column28 Column29
Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

51984 0.1979166667 0.4419556448


33196.84 0.1238613188 0.3531768355
17508.5824 0.0885676037 0.2564893461
377477.52966 0.3028053228 1.1909386514
550022.76988 0.3087573689 1.4375871186
1687351.9501 0.3989499754 2.5179475372
507497.61999 0.2233893609 1.3808955916
555670.66043 0.2125558036 1.4449491754
355525.89449 0.1630907883 1.1557913959
616608.21311 0.3124727604 1.5221185924
165768.21392 0.1579924052 0.7892134306
2468945.5291 1.2570302855 3.0457874472
868200.39078 0.738915713 1.8061500469
81261.272277 0.1857092042 0.5525678936
317011.98885 0.4925968303 1.0913943009
726205.79911 0.365270936 1.6518617411
808751.74253 0.3305057906 1.7432170016
666809.02689 0.2723761687 1.5828675414
2961669.7707 0.4069402346 3.3358933264
4960.3635809 0.0225303419 0.136521356
27310.17655 0.0550309388 0.3203362536
861471.23162 0.4269341056 1.7991369695
58996.935274 0.0976257425 0.4708239691
255768.60674 0.2376577577 0.9803190838
140956.26363 0.182607697 0.7277563907
126213.11721 0.1844573494 0.6886460881
98695.822624 0.1721418701 0.6089662499
40604.124856 0.0909727549 0.3905970109
9584.9565475 0.0446636822 0.1897749617
66947.254273 0.1081695965 0.5015453672
10250.551012 0.0433041082 0.196253515
92569.88623 0.1542083107 0.5897646031
45134.238429 0.0897163014 0.4118100088
111201.52131 0.1295528054 0.6463968071
437.58980772 0.0088902029 0.0405487469
15768570.434 8.5881681029
438015.84539
661.82765535
0.2385602251
0.9779129867
Data
Months Sum of Asthma_nos Sum of Naïve
1 1380
2 1152 1380
3 1471 1152
4 1494 1471
5 2029 1494
6 2402 2029
7 3256 2402
8 3189 3256
9 3507 3189
10 3656 3507
11 2513 3656
12 2577 2513
13 1250 2577
14 1261 1250
15 1535 1261
16 1143 1535
17 2333 1143
18 2721 2333
19 2998 2721
20 4229 2998
21 3126 4229
22 3003 3126
23 2174 3003
24 2488 2174
25 2128 2488
26 2056 2128
27 1926 2056
28 1825 1926
29 2215 1825
30 2192 2215
31 2392 2192
32 2338 2392
33 1973 2338
34 2368 1973
35 2574 2368
36 2353 2574
Months
(empty)
Total Result 83227 80874
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380 -228 228 51984
3 1471 1152 319 319 101761
4 1494 1471 23 23 529
5 2029 1494 535 535 286225
6 2402 2029 373 373 139129
7 3256 2402 854 854 729316
8 3189 3256 -67 67 4489
9 3507 3189 318 318 101124
10 3656 3507 149 149 22201
11 2513 3656 -1143 1143 1306449
12 2577 2513 64 64 4096
13 1250 2577 -1327 1327 1760929
14 1261 1250 11 11 121
15 1535 1261 274 274 75076
16 1143 1535 -392 392 153664
17 2333 1143 1190 1190 1416100
18 2721 2333 388 388 150544
19 2998 2721 277 277 76729
20 4229 2998 1231 1231 1515361
21 3126 4229 -1103 1103 1216609
22 3003 3126 -123 123 15129
23 2174 3003 -829 829 687241
24 2488 2174 314 314 98596
25 2128 2488 -360 360 129600
26 2056 2128 -72 72 5184
27 1926 2056 -130 130 16900
28 1825 1926 -101 101 10201
29 2215 1825 390 390 152100
30 2192 2215 -23 23 529
31 2392 2192 200 200 40000
32 2338 2392 -54 54 2916
33 1973 2338 -365 365 133225
34 2368 1973 395 395 156025
35 2574 2368 206 206 42436
36 2353 2574 -221 221 48841
MAE 390.25 10651359
RMSE 543.94033067
MAPE
MASE
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA Column12
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA

0.1979166667 0.5842408712 1380


0.2168592794 0.8174247277 1288.8
0.015394913 0.0589365791 1334.3333333 1361.65 1361.68
0.263676688 1.3709160794 1372.3333333 1435.8 1414.608
0.1552872606 0.9557975657 1664.6666667 1784.8 1660.3648
0.2622850123 2.1883408072 1975 2153.9 1957.01888
0.0210097209 0.1716848174 2562.3333333 2815.75 2476.611328
0.0906757913 0.8148622678 2949 3091.05 2761.5667968
0.0407549234 0.3818065343 3317.3333333 3373.95 3059.7400781
0.4548348587 2.9288917361 3450.6666667 3541.25 3298.2440468
0.0248350795 0.1639974375 3225.3333333 3005 2984.1464281
1.0616 3.400384369 2915.3333333 2719.65 2821.2878569
0.0087232355 0.0281870596 2113.3333333 1837.55 2192.7727141
0.1785016287 0.7021140295 1696 1455.1 1820.0636285
0.3429571304 1.0044843049 1348.6666667 1410.05 1706.0381771
0.5100728676 3.0493273543 1313 1278.3 1480.8229062
0.1425946343 0.9942344651 1670.3333333 1856.3 1821.6937437
0.09239493 0.7098014094 2065.6666667 2367.9 2181.4162462
0.291085363 3.1543882127 2684 2815.15 2508.0497477
0.3528470889 2.8263933376 3316 3633.5 3196.4298486
0.040959041 0.3151825753 3451 3437.7 3168.2579092
0.381324747 2.1242793081 3452.6666667 3223.8 3102.1547455
0.1262057878 0.8046124279 2767.6666667 2565.5 2730.8928473
0.1691729323 0.9224855862 2555 2471.05 2633.7357084
0.0350194553 0.1844971172 2263.3333333 2242.9 2431.441425
0.0674974039 0.333119795 2224 2142.4 2281.264855
0.0553424658 0.2588084561 2036.6666667 1995.3 2139.158913
0.1760722348 0.999359385 1935.6666667 1889.95 2013.4953478
0.0104927007 0.0589365791 1988.6666667 2054.65 2094.0972087
0.0836120401 0.5124919923 2077.3333333 2143.85 2133.2583252
0.0230966638 0.1383728379 2266.3333333 2305.45 2236.7549951
0.1849974658 0.935297886 2307.3333333 2332.3 2277.2529971
0.1668074324 1.0121716848 2234.3333333 2145.35 2155.5517982
0.08003108 0.5278667521 2226.3333333 2245 2240.5310789
0.0939226519 0.5663036515 2305 2422.05 2373.9186474
6.4188611748 36

0.1783016993
1
Raw Error Abs_Er2 Sqr_Er2 Abs_%_Er2 MASE
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

159.66666667 159.66666667 25493.444444 0.1068719322 0.3115559731


656.66666667 656.66666667 431211.11111 0.3236405454 1.2813471128
737.33333333 737.33333333 543660.44444 0.3069664169 1.4387511744
1281 1281 1640961 0.3934275184 2.499602515
626.66666667 626.66666667 392711.11111 0.1965088324 1.2228084122
558 558 311364 0.1591103507 1.0888198309
338.66666667 338.66666667 114695.11111 0.0926331145 0.6608368866
-937.66666667 937.66666667 879218.77778 0.3731264093 1.8296596083
-648.33333333 648.33333333 420336.11111 0.2515845298 1.2650863627
-1665.3333333 1665.3333333 2773335.1111 1.3322666667 3.2495483125
-852.33333333 852.33333333 726472.11111 0.6759185831 1.6631495266
-161 161 25921 0.1048859935 0.3141576931
-205.66666667 205.66666667 42298.777778 0.1799358414 0.401315314
1020 1020 1040400 0.437205315 1.9903158199
1050.6666667 1050.6666667 1103900.4444 0.3861325493 2.0501553805
932.33333333 932.33333333 869245.44444 0.3109851012 1.8192527282
1545 1545 2387025 0.3653345945 3.0147430801
-190 190 36100 0.0607805502 0.3707451037
-448 448 200704 0.1491841492 0.8741779287
-1278.6666667 1278.6666667 1634988.4444 0.5881631401 2.495049505
-279.66666667 279.66666667 78213.444444 0.1124062165 0.5457107755
-427 427 182329 0.2006578947 0.8332008383
-207.33333333 207.33333333 42987.111111 0.100843061 0.404567464
-298 298 88804 0.1547248183 0.5814844258
-211.66666667 211.66666667 44802.777778 0.1159817352 0.4130230541
279.33333333 279.33333333 78027.111111 0.126109857 0.5450603455
203.33333333 203.33333333 41344.444444 0.0927615572 0.396762304
314.66666667 314.66666667 99015.111111 0.1315496098 0.6140059261
71.666666667 71.666666667 5136.1111111 0.0306529798 0.1398424514
-334.33333333 334.33333333 111778.77778 0.1694542997 0.6523812965
133.66666667 133.66666667 17866.777778 0.0564470721 0.2608224326
347.66666667 347.66666667 120872.11111 0.1350686351 0.6783984968
48 48 2304 0.02039949 0.0936619209
16513522.222
MAE 512.48148148
RMSE 112.88009255
MAPE 0.2289366489
MASE 1
Column18 Raw Error2 Abs_Er3 Sqr_Er3 Abs_%_Er3
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er

132.35 132.35 17516.5225 0.0885876841


593.2 593.2 351886.24 0.2923607689
617.2 617.2 380935.84 0.2569525396
1102.1 1102.1 1214624.41 0.338482801
373.25 373.25 139315.5625 0.1170429602
415.95 415.95 173014.4025 0.1186056459
282.05 282.05 79552.2025 0.0771471554
-1028.25 1028.25 1057298.0625 0.409172304
-428 428 183184 0.1660845945
-1469.65 1469.65 2159871.1225 1.17572
-576.55 576.55 332409.9025 0.4572164948
79.9 79.9 6384.01 0.0520521173
-267.05 267.05 71315.7025 0.2336395451
1054.7 1054.7 1112392.09 0.4520788684
864.7 864.7 747706.09 0.3177875781
630.1 630.1 397026.01 0.210173449
1413.85 1413.85 1998971.8225 0.3343225349
-507.5 507.5 257556.25 0.1623480486
-434.7 434.7 188964.09 0.1447552448
-1049.8 1049.8 1102080.04 0.4828886845
-77.5 77.5 6006.25 0.0311495177
-343.05 343.05 117683.3025 0.1612077068
-186.9 186.9 34931.61 0.0909046693
-216.4 216.4 46828.96 0.112357217
-170.3 170.3 29002.09 0.0933150685
325.05 325.05 105657.5025 0.1467494357
137.35 137.35 18865.0225 0.0626596715
248.15 248.15 61578.4225 0.1037416388
32.55 32.55 1059.5025 0.0139221557
-359.3 359.3 129096.49 0.1821084643
222.65 222.65 49573.0225 0.0940244932
329 329 108241 0.1278166278
-69.05 69.05 4767.9025 0.0293455164
16038.1 12685295.45 7.1367212013
MAE 445.50277778 704738.63611
RMSE 839.48712683
MAPE 0.1982422556
MASE
MASE2 Column24 Raw Error3 Abs_Er4 Sqr_Er4
MASE Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er

-228 228 51984


182.2 182.2 33196.84
0.2970800781 132.32 132.32 17508.5824
1.3315292959 614.392 614.392 377477.52966
1.3854010138 741.6352 741.6352 550022.76988
2.4738341824 1298.98112 1298.98112 1687351.9501
0.8378174472 712.388672 712.388672 507497.61999
0.9336642121 745.4332032 745.4332032 555670.66043
0.6331049189 596.25992192 596.25992192 355525.89449
2.3080664168 -785.24404685 785.24404685 616608.21311
0.9607123038 -407.14642811 407.14642811 165768.21392
3.2988570965 -1571.2878569 1571.2878569 2468945.5291
1.2941557915 -931.77271412 931.77271412 868200.39078
0.1793479277 -285.06362847 285.06362847 81261.272277
0.5994350952 -563.03817708 563.03817708 317011.98885
2.3674375394 852.17709375 852.17709375 726205.79911
1.9409531054 899.30625625 899.30625625 808751.74253
1.4143570622 816.58375375 816.58375375 666809.02689
3.1736053523 1720.9502523 1720.9502523 2961669.7707
1.1391623696 -70.42984865 70.42984865 4960.3635809
0.9757514918 -165.25790919 165.25790919 27310.17655
2.3564387303 -928.15474551 928.15474551 861471.23162
0.1739607559 -242.89284731 242.89284731 58996.935274
0.7700288688 -505.73570839 505.73570839 255768.60674
0.4195260037 -375.44142503 375.44142503 140956.26363
0.4857433237 -355.26485502 355.26485502 126213.11721
0.3822647321 -314.15891301 314.15891301 98695.822624
0.7296250803 201.50465219 201.50465219 40604.124856
0.3083033526 97.902791316 97.902791316 9584.9565475
0.5570111173 258.74167479 258.74167479 66947.254273
0.0730635175 101.24500487 101.24500487 10250.551012
0.8065045111 -304.25299708 304.25299708 92569.88623
0.4997724169 212.44820175 212.44820175 45134.238429
0.7384914672 333.46892105 333.46892105 111201.52131
0.1549934219 -20.918647368 20.918647368 437.58980772
18571.999467 15768570.434
MAE 515.88887409 438015.84539
RMSE 661.82765535
MAPE
1 MASE
Abs_%_Er4 MASE3
Abs_%_Er MASE

0.1979166667 0.4419556448
0.1238613188 0.3531768355
0.0885676037 0.2564893461
0.3028053228 1.1909386514
0.3087573689 1.4375871186
0.3989499754 2.5179475372
0.2233893609 1.3808955916
0.2125558036 1.4449491754
0.1630907883 1.1557913959
0.3124727604 1.5221185924
0.1579924052 0.7892134306
1.2570302855 3.0457874472
0.738915713 1.8061500469
0.1857092042 0.5525678936
0.4925968303 1.0913943009
0.365270936 1.6518617411
0.3305057906 1.7432170016
0.2723761687 1.5828675414
0.4069402346 3.3358933264
0.0225303419 0.136521356
0.0550309388 0.3203362536
0.4269341056 1.7991369695
0.0976257425 0.4708239691
0.2376577577 0.9803190838
0.182607697 0.7277563907
0.1844573494 0.6886460881
0.1721418701 0.6089662499
0.0909727549 0.3905970109
0.0446636822 0.1897749617
0.1081695965 0.5015453672
0.0433041082 0.196253515
0.1542083107 0.5897646031
0.0897163014 0.4118100088
0.1295528054 0.6463968071
0.0088902029 0.0405487469
8.5881681029

0.2385602251
0.9779129867
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380 -228 228 51984
3 1471 1152 319 319 101761
4 1494 1471 23 23 529
5 2029 1494 535 535 286225
6 2402 2029 373 373 139129
7 3256 2402 854 854 729316
8 3189 3256 -67 67 4489
9 3507 3189 318 318 101124
10 3656 3507 149 149 22201
11 2513 3656 -1143 1143 1306449
12 2577 2513 64 64 4096
13 1250 2577 -1327 1327 1760929
14 1261 1250 11 11 121
15 1535 1261 274 274 75076
16 1143 1535 -392 392 153664
17 2333 1143 1190 1190 1416100
18 2721 2333 388 388 150544
19 2998 2721 277 277 76729
20 4229 2998 1231 1231 1515361
21 3126 4229 -1103 1103 1216609
22 3003 3126 -123 123 15129
23 2174 3003 -829 829 687241
24 2488 2174 314 314 98596
25 2128 2488 -360 360 129600
26 2056 2128 -72 72 5184
27 1926 2056 -130 130 16900
28 1825 1926 -101 101 10201
29 2215 1825 390 390 152100
30 2192 2215 -23 23 529
31 2392 2192 200 200 40000
32 2338 2392 -54 54 2916
33 1973 2338 -365 365 133225
34 2368 1973 395 395 156025
35 2574 2368 206 206 42436
36 2353 2574 -221 221 48841
MAE 390.25 10651359
RMSE 543.94033067
MAPE
MASE
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA

0.1979166667 0.5842408712 1380


0.2168592794 0.8174247277 1288.8
0.015394913 0.0589365791 1334.3333333 1361.65 1361.68
0.263676688 1.3709160794 1372.3333333 1435.8 1414.608
0.1552872606 0.9557975657 1664.6666667 1784.8 1660.3648
0.2622850123 2.1883408072 1975 2153.9 1957.01888
0.0210097209 0.1716848174 2562.3333333 2815.75 2476.611328
0.0906757913 0.8148622678 2949 3091.05 2761.5667968
0.0407549234 0.3818065343 3317.3333333 3373.95 3059.7400781
0.4548348587 2.9288917361 3450.6666667 3541.25 3298.2440468
0.0248350795 0.1639974375 3225.3333333 3005 2984.1464281
1.0616 3.400384369 2915.3333333 2719.65 2821.2878569
0.0087232355 0.0281870596 2113.3333333 1837.55 2192.7727141
0.1785016287 0.7021140295 1696 1455.1 1820.0636285
0.3429571304 1.0044843049 1348.6666667 1410.05 1706.0381771
0.5100728676 3.0493273543 1313 1278.3 1480.8229062
0.1425946343 0.9942344651 1670.3333333 1856.3 1821.6937437
0.09239493 0.7098014094 2065.6666667 2367.9 2181.4162462
0.291085363 3.1543882127 2684 2815.15 2508.0497477
0.3528470889 2.8263933376 3316 3633.5 3196.4298486
0.040959041 0.3151825753 3451 3437.7 3168.2579092
0.381324747 2.1242793081 3452.6666667 3223.8 3102.1547455
0.1262057878 0.8046124279 2767.6666667 2565.5 2730.8928473
0.1691729323 0.9224855862 2555 2471.05 2633.7357084
0.0350194553 0.1844971172 2263.3333333 2242.9 2431.441425
0.0674974039 0.333119795 2224 2142.4 2281.264855
0.0553424658 0.2588084561 2036.6666667 1995.3 2139.158913
0.1760722348 0.999359385 1935.6666667 1889.95 2013.4953478
0.0104927007 0.0589365791 1988.6666667 2054.65 2094.0972087
0.0836120401 0.5124919923 2077.3333333 2143.85 2133.2583252
0.0230966638 0.1383728379 2266.3333333 2305.45 2236.7549951
0.1849974658 0.935297886 2307.3333333 2332.3 2277.2529971
0.1668074324 1.0121716848 2234.3333333 2145.35 2155.5517982
0.08003108 0.5278667521 2226.3333333 2245 2240.5310789
0.0939226519 0.5663036515 2305 2422.05 2373.9186474
6.4188611748 36

0.1783016993
1
Column12 Raw Error Abs_Er2 Sqr_Er2 Abs_%_Er2
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er

159.66666667 159.66666667 25493.444444 0.1068719322


656.66666667 656.66666667 431211.11111 0.3236405454
737.33333333 737.33333333 543660.44444 0.3069664169
1281 1281 1640961 0.3934275184
626.66666667 626.66666667 392711.11111 0.1965088324
558 558 311364 0.1591103507
338.66666667 338.66666667 114695.11111 0.0926331145
-937.66666667 937.66666667 879218.77778 0.3731264093
-648.33333333 648.33333333 420336.11111 0.2515845298
-1665.3333333 1665.3333333 2773335.1111 1.3322666667
-852.33333333 852.33333333 726472.11111 0.6759185831
-161 161 25921 0.1048859935
-205.66666667 205.66666667 42298.777778 0.1799358414
1020 1020 1040400 0.437205315
1050.6666667 1050.6666667 1103900.4444 0.3861325493
932.33333333 932.33333333 869245.44444 0.3109851012
1545 1545 2387025 0.3653345945
-190 190 36100 0.0607805502
-448 448 200704 0.1491841492
-1278.6666667 1278.6666667 1634988.4444 0.5881631401
-279.66666667 279.66666667 78213.444444 0.1124062165
-427 427 182329 0.2006578947
-207.33333333 207.33333333 42987.111111 0.100843061
-298 298 88804 0.1547248183
-211.66666667 211.66666667 44802.777778 0.1159817352
279.33333333 279.33333333 78027.111111 0.126109857
203.33333333 203.33333333 41344.444444 0.0927615572
314.66666667 314.66666667 99015.111111 0.1315496098
71.666666667 71.666666667 5136.1111111 0.0306529798
-334.33333333 334.33333333 111778.77778 0.1694542997
133.66666667 133.66666667 17866.777778 0.0564470721
347.66666667 347.66666667 120872.11111 0.1350686351
48 48 2304 0.02039949
16513522.222
MAE 512.48148148
RMSE 112.88009255
MAPE 0.2289366489
MASE
MASE Column18 Raw Error2 Abs_Er3 Sqr_Er3
MASE Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er

0.3115559731 132.35 132.35 17516.5225


1.2813471128 593.2 593.2 351886.24
1.4387511744 617.2 617.2 380935.84
2.499602515 1102.1 1102.1 1214624.41
1.2228084122 373.25 373.25 139315.5625
1.0888198309 415.95 415.95 173014.4025
0.6608368866 282.05 282.05 79552.2025
1.8296596083 -1028.25 1028.25 1057298.0625
1.2650863627 -428 428 183184
3.2495483125 -1469.65 1469.65 2159871.1225
1.6631495266 -576.55 576.55 332409.9025
0.3141576931 79.9 79.9 6384.01
0.401315314 -267.05 267.05 71315.7025
1.9903158199 1054.7 1054.7 1112392.09
2.0501553805 864.7 864.7 747706.09
1.8192527282 630.1 630.1 397026.01
3.0147430801 1413.85 1413.85 1998971.8225
0.3707451037 -507.5 507.5 257556.25
0.8741779287 -434.7 434.7 188964.09
2.495049505 -1049.8 1049.8 1102080.04
0.5457107755 -77.5 77.5 6006.25
0.8332008383 -343.05 343.05 117683.3025
0.404567464 -186.9 186.9 34931.61
0.5814844258 -216.4 216.4 46828.96
0.4130230541 -170.3 170.3 29002.09
0.5450603455 325.05 325.05 105657.5025
0.396762304 137.35 137.35 18865.0225
0.6140059261 248.15 248.15 61578.4225
0.1398424514 32.55 32.55 1059.5025
0.6523812965 -359.3 359.3 129096.49
0.2608224326 222.65 222.65 49573.0225
0.6783984968 329 329 108241
0.0936619209 -69.05 69.05 4767.9025
16038.1 12685295.45
MAE 445.50277778 704738.63611
RMSE 839.48712683
MAPE
1 MASE
Abs_%_Er3 MASE2 Column24 Raw Error3 Abs_Er4
Abs_%_Er MASE Raw Error Abs_Er

-228 228
182.2 182.2
0.0885876841 0.2970800781 132.32 132.32
0.2923607689 1.3315292959 614.392 614.392
0.2569525396 1.3854010138 741.6352 741.6352
0.338482801 2.4738341824 1298.98112 1298.98112
0.1170429602 0.8378174472 712.388672 712.388672
0.1186056459 0.9336642121 745.4332032 745.4332032
0.0771471554 0.6331049189 596.25992192 596.25992192
0.409172304 2.3080664168 -785.24404685 785.24404685
0.1660845945 0.9607123038 -407.14642811 407.14642811
1.17572 3.2988570965 -1571.2878569 1571.2878569
0.4572164948 1.2941557915 -931.77271412 931.77271412
0.0520521173 0.1793479277 -285.06362847 285.06362847
0.2336395451 0.5994350952 -563.03817708 563.03817708
0.4520788684 2.3674375394 852.17709375 852.17709375
0.3177875781 1.9409531054 899.30625625 899.30625625
0.210173449 1.4143570622 816.58375375 816.58375375
0.3343225349 3.1736053523 1720.9502523 1720.9502523
0.1623480486 1.1391623696 -70.42984865 70.42984865
0.1447552448 0.9757514918 -165.25790919 165.25790919
0.4828886845 2.3564387303 -928.15474551 928.15474551
0.0311495177 0.1739607559 -242.89284731 242.89284731
0.1612077068 0.7700288688 -505.73570839 505.73570839
0.0909046693 0.4195260037 -375.44142503 375.44142503
0.112357217 0.4857433237 -355.26485502 355.26485502
0.0933150685 0.3822647321 -314.15891301 314.15891301
0.1467494357 0.7296250803 201.50465219 201.50465219
0.0626596715 0.3083033526 97.902791316 97.902791316
0.1037416388 0.5570111173 258.74167479 258.74167479
0.0139221557 0.0730635175 101.24500487 101.24500487
0.1821084643 0.8065045111 -304.25299708 304.25299708
0.0940244932 0.4997724169 212.44820175 212.44820175
0.1278166278 0.7384914672 333.46892105 333.46892105
0.0293455164 0.1549934219 -20.918647368 20.918647368
7.1367212013 18571.999467
MAE 515.88887409
RMSE
0.1982422556 MAPE
1 MASE
Sqr_Er4 Abs_%_Er4 MASE3
Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

51984 0.1979166667 0.4419556448


33196.84 0.1238613188 0.3531768355
17508.5824 0.0885676037 0.2564893461
377477.52966 0.3028053228 1.1909386514
550022.76988 0.3087573689 1.4375871186
1687351.9501 0.3989499754 2.5179475372
507497.61999 0.2233893609 1.3808955916
555670.66043 0.2125558036 1.4449491754
355525.89449 0.1630907883 1.1557913959
616608.21311 0.3124727604 1.5221185924
165768.21392 0.1579924052 0.7892134306
2468945.5291 1.2570302855 3.0457874472
868200.39078 0.738915713 1.8061500469
81261.272277 0.1857092042 0.5525678936
317011.98885 0.4925968303 1.0913943009
726205.79911 0.365270936 1.6518617411
808751.74253 0.3305057906 1.7432170016
666809.02689 0.2723761687 1.5828675414
2961669.7707 0.4069402346 3.3358933264
4960.3635809 0.0225303419 0.136521356
27310.17655 0.0550309388 0.3203362536
861471.23162 0.4269341056 1.7991369695
58996.935274 0.0976257425 0.4708239691
255768.60674 0.2376577577 0.9803190838
140956.26363 0.182607697 0.7277563907
126213.11721 0.1844573494 0.6886460881
98695.822624 0.1721418701 0.6089662499
40604.124856 0.0909727549 0.3905970109
9584.9565475 0.0446636822 0.1897749617
66947.254273 0.1081695965 0.5015453672
10250.551012 0.0433041082 0.196253515
92569.88623 0.1542083107 0.5897646031
45134.238429 0.0897163014 0.4118100088
111201.52131 0.1295528054 0.6463968071
437.58980772 0.0088902029 0.0405487469
15768570.434 8.5881681029
438015.84539
661.82765535
0.2385602251
0.9779129867
Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380 -228 228 51984
3 1471 1152 319 319 101761
4 1494 1471 23 23 529
5 2029 1494 535 535 286225
6 2402 2029 373 373 139129
7 3256 2402 854 854 729316
8 3189 3256 -67 67 4489
9 3507 3189 318 318 101124
10 3656 3507 149 149 22201
11 2513 3656 -1143 1143 1306449
12 2577 2513 64 64 4096
13 1250 2577 -1327 1327 1760929
14 1261 1250 11 11 121
15 1535 1261 274 274 75076
16 1143 1535 -392 392 153664
17 2333 1143 1190 1190 1416100
18 2721 2333 388 388 150544
19 2998 2721 277 277 76729
20 4229 2998 1231 1231 1515361
21 3126 4229 -1103 1103 1216609
22 3003 3126 -123 123 15129
23 2174 3003 -829 829 687241
24 2488 2174 314 314 98596
25 2128 2488 -360 360 129600
26 2056 2128 -72 72 5184
27 1926 2056 -130 130 16900
28 1825 1926 -101 101 10201
29 2215 1825 390 390 152100
30 2192 2215 -23 23 529
31 2392 2192 200 200 40000
32 2338 2392 -54 54 2916
33 1973 2338 -365 365 133225
34 2368 1973 395 395 156025
35 2574 2368 206 206 42436
36 2353 2574 -221 221 48841
MAE 390.25 10651359
RMSE 543.940331
MAPE
MASE
Column1 Naïve 3MA
MAE 390.25 512.4814815
RMSE 543.9403307 112.8800926
MAPE 17.83% 23%
MASE 1 1
Column7 Column8 Column9 Column10 Column11
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA
#N/A
0.197916667 0.584240871 1380
0.216859279 0.817424728 1288.8
0.015394913 0.058936579 1334.33 1361.65 1361.68
0.263676688 1.370916079 1372.33 1435.8 1414.608
0.155287261 0.955797566 1664.67 1784.8 1660.3648
0.262285012 2.188340807 1975.00 2153.9 1957.01888
0.021009721 0.171684817 2562.33 2815.75 2476.611328
0.090675791 0.814862268 2949.00 3091.05 2761.566797
0.040754923 0.381806534 3317.33 3373.95 3059.740078
0.454834859 2.928891736 3450.67 3541.25 3298.244047
0.02483508 0.163997438 3225.33 3005 2984.146428
1.0616 3.400384369 2915.33 2719.65 2821.287857
0.008723236 0.02818706 2113.33 1837.55 2192.772714
0.178501629 0.702114029 1696.00 1455.1 1820.063628
0.34295713 1.004484305 1348.67 1410.05 1706.038177
0.510072868 3.049327354 1313.00 1278.3 1480.822906
0.142594634 0.994234465 1670.33 1856.3 1821.693744
0.09239493 0.709801409 2065.67 2367.9 2181.416246
0.291085363 3.154388213 2684.00 2815.15 2508.049748
0.352847089 2.826393338 3316.00 3633.5 3196.429849
0.040959041 0.315182575 3451.00 3437.7 3168.257909
0.381324747 2.124279308 3452.67 3223.8 3102.154746
0.126205788 0.804612428 2767.67 2565.5 2730.892847
0.169172932 0.922485586 2555.00 2471.05 2633.735708
0.035019455 0.184497117 2263.33 2242.9 2431.441425
0.067497404 0.333119795 2224.00 2142.4 2281.264855
0.055342466 0.258808456 2036.67 1995.3 2139.158913
0.176072235 0.999359385 1935.67 1889.95 2013.495348
0.010492701 0.058936579 1988.67 2054.65 2094.097209
0.08361204 0.512491992 2077.33 2143.85 2133.258325
0.023096664 0.138372838 2266.33 2305.45 2236.754995
0.184997466 0.935297886 2307.33 2332.3 2277.252997
0.166807432 1.012171685 2234.33 2145.35 2155.551798
0.08003108 0.527866752 2226.33 2245 2240.531079
0.093922652 0.566303652 2305.00 2422.05 2373.918647
6.418861175 36

17.83%
1
WMA EMA
445.5027778 515.8888741
839.4871268 661.8276554
20% 24%
1 0.977912987
Column12 Column13 Column14 Column15 Column16
Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er

159.67 159.6666667 25493.44 0.106871932


656.67 656.6666667 431211.11 0.323640545
737.33 737.3333333 543660.44 0.306966417
1281.00 1281 1640961.00 0.393427518
626.67 626.6666667 392711.11 0.196508832
558.00 558 311364.00 0.159110351
338.67 338.6666667 114695.11 0.092633115
-937.67 937.6666667 879218.78 0.373126409
-648.33 648.3333333 420336.11 0.25158453
-1665.33 1665.333333 2773335.11 1.332266667
-852.33 852.3333333 726472.11 0.675918583
-161.00 161 25921.00 0.104885993
-205.67 205.6666667 42298.78 0.179935841
1020.00 1020 1040400.00 0.437205315
1050.67 1050.666667 1103900.44 0.386132549
932.33 932.3333333 869245.44 0.310985101
1545.00 1545 2387025.00 0.365334594
-190.00 190 36100.00 0.06078055
-448.00 448 200704.00 0.149184149
-1278.67 1278.666667 1634988.44 0.58816314
-279.67 279.6666667 78213.44 0.112406217
-427.00 427 182329.00 0.200657895
-207.33 207.3333333 42987.11 0.100843061
-298.00 298 88804.00 0.154724818
-211.67 211.6666667 44802.78 0.115981735
279.33 279.3333333 78027.11 0.126109857
203.33 203.3333333 41344.44 0.092761557
314.67 314.6666667 99015.11 0.13154961
71.67 71.66666667 5136.11 0.03065298
-334.33 334.3333333 111778.78 0.1694543
133.67 133.6666667 17866.78 0.056447072
347.67 347.6666667 120872.11 0.135068635
48.00 48 2304.00 0.02039949
16513522.22
MAE 512.481481
RMSE 112.88
MAPE 23%
MASE
Column17 Column18 Column19 Column20 Column21
MASE Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er

0.311555973 132.35 132.35 17516.5225


1.281347113 593.2 593.2 351886.24
1.438751174 617.2 617.2 380935.84
2.499602515 1102.1 1102.1 1214624.41
1.222808412 373.25 373.25 139315.5625
1.088819831 415.95 415.95 173014.4025
0.660836887 282.05 282.05 79552.2025
1.829659608 -1028.25 1028.25 1057298.063
1.265086363 -428 428 183184
3.249548312 -1469.65 1469.65 2159871.123
1.663149527 -576.55 576.55 332409.9025
0.314157693 79.9 79.9 6384.01
0.401315314 -267.05 267.05 71315.7025
1.99031582 1054.7 1054.7 1112392.09
2.050155381 864.7 864.7 747706.09
1.819252728 630.1 630.1 397026.01
3.01474308 1413.85 1413.85 1998971.822
0.370745104 -507.5 507.5 257556.25
0.874177929 -434.7 434.7 188964.09
2.495049505 -1049.8 1049.8 1102080.04
0.545710775 -77.5 77.5 6006.25
0.833200838 -343.05 343.05 117683.3025
0.404567464 -186.9 186.9 34931.61
0.581484426 -216.4 216.4 46828.96
0.413023054 -170.3 170.3 29002.09
0.545060345 325.05 325.05 105657.5025
0.396762304 137.35 137.35 18865.0225
0.614005926 248.15 248.15 61578.4225
0.139842451 32.55 32.55 1059.5025
0.652381297 -359.3 359.3 129096.49
0.260822433 222.65 222.65 49573.0225
0.678398497 329 329 108241
0.093661921 -69.05 69.05 4767.9025
16038.1 12685295.45
MAE 445.502778 704738.6361
RMSE 839.487127
MAPE
1 MASE
Column22 Column23 Column24 Column25 Column26
Abs_%_Er MASE Raw Error Abs_Er

-228 228
182.2 182.2
0.088587684 0.297080078 132.32 132.32
0.292360769 1.331529296 614.392 614.392
0.25695254 1.385401014 741.6352 741.6352
0.338482801 2.473834182 1298.98112 1298.98112
0.11704296 0.837817447 712.388672 712.388672
0.118605646 0.933664212 745.4332032 745.4332032
0.077147155 0.633104919 596.2599219 596.2599219
0.409172304 2.308066417 -785.2440468 785.2440468
0.166084594 0.960712304 -407.1464281 407.1464281
1.17572 3.298857097 -1571.287857 1571.287857
0.457216495 1.294155792 -931.7727141 931.7727141
0.052052117 0.179347928 -285.0636285 285.0636285
0.233639545 0.599435095 -563.0381771 563.0381771
0.452078868 2.367437539 852.1770938 852.1770938
0.317787578 1.940953105 899.3062563 899.3062563
0.210173449 1.414357062 816.5837538 816.5837538
0.334322535 3.173605352 1720.950252 1720.950252
0.162348049 1.13916237 -70.42984865 70.42984865
0.144755245 0.975751492 -165.2579092 165.2579092
0.482888684 2.35643873 -928.1547455 928.1547455
0.031149518 0.173960756 -242.8928473 242.8928473
0.161207707 0.770028869 -505.7357084 505.7357084
0.090904669 0.419526004 -375.441425 375.441425
0.112357217 0.485743324 -355.264855 355.264855
0.093315068 0.382264732 -314.158913 314.158913
0.146749436 0.72962508 201.5046522 201.5046522
0.062659672 0.308303353 97.90279132 97.90279132
0.103741639 0.557011117 258.7416748 258.7416748
0.013922156 0.073063517 101.2450049 101.2450049
0.182108464 0.806504511 -304.2529971 304.2529971
0.094024493 0.499772417 212.4482018 212.4482018
0.127816628 0.738491467 333.4689211 333.4689211
0.029345516 0.154993422 -20.91864737 20.91864737
7.136721201 18571.99947
MAE 515.888874
RMSE
20% MAPE
1 MASE
Column27 Column28 Column29
Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

51984 0.197916667 0.441955645


33196.84 0.123861319 0.353176835
17508.5824 0.088567604 0.256489346
377477.5297 0.302805323 1.190938651
550022.7699 0.308757369 1.437587119
1687351.95 0.398949975 2.517947537
507497.62 0.223389361 1.380895592
555670.6604 0.212555804 1.444949175
355525.8945 0.163090788 1.155791396
616608.2131 0.31247276 1.522118592
165768.2139 0.157992405 0.789213431
2468945.529 1.257030285 3.045787447
868200.3908 0.738915713 1.806150047
81261.27228 0.185709204 0.552567894
317011.9889 0.49259683 1.091394301
726205.7991 0.365270936 1.651861741
808751.7425 0.330505791 1.743217002
666809.0269 0.272376169 1.582867541
2961669.771 0.406940235 3.335893326
4960.363581 0.022530342 0.136521356
27310.17655 0.055030939 0.320336254
861471.2316 0.426934106 1.799136969
58996.93527 0.097625742 0.470823969
255768.6067 0.237657758 0.980319084
140956.2636 0.182607697 0.727756391
126213.1172 0.184457349 0.688646088
98695.82262 0.17214187 0.60896625
40604.12486 0.090972755 0.390597011
9584.956547 0.044663682 0.189774962
66947.25427 0.108169596 0.501545367
10250.55101 0.043304108 0.196253515
92569.88623 0.154208311 0.589764603
45134.23843 0.089716301 0.411810009
111201.5213 0.129552805 0.646396807
437.5898077 0.008890203 0.040548747
15768570.43 8.588168103
438015.8454
661.827655
24%
0.97791299
Sum of Asthma_Diagnoses
83227
Date Diabetes_Diagnoses Asthma_Diagnoses
1/1/2021 23 66
1/3/2021 25 59
1/4/2021 26 64
1/6/2021 29 77
1/7/2021 38 78
1/8/2021 38 70
1/10/2021 31 78
1/11/2021 22 51
1/12/2021 32 64
1/13/2021 37 62
1/16/2021 27 44
1/17/2021 34 64
1/18/2021 20 30
1/19/2021 22 39
1/20/2021 27 65
1/23/2021 23 64
1/24/2021 35 82
1/25/2021 29 43
1/26/2021 31 62
1/27/2021 33 76
1/29/2021 33 43
1/30/2021 21 56
1/31/2021 24 43
2/1/2021 24 63
2/3/2021 25 52
2/7/2021 32 58
2/8/2021 28 63
2/9/2021 34 51
2/11/2021 33 82
2/12/2021 26 47
2/13/2021 39 75
2/14/2021 21 38
2/15/2021 26 60
2/16/2021 25 38
2/18/2021 36 78
2/19/2021 21 31
2/20/2021 22 50
2/21/2021 24 64
2/23/2021 24 49
2/24/2021 20 43
2/25/2021 27 41
2/26/2021 31 66
2/27/2021 23 60
2/28/2021 32 43
3/1/2021 34 49
3/2/2021 30 48
3/3/2021 29 71
3/5/2021 22 56
3/7/2021 33 55
3/8/2021 35 53
3/9/2021 29 51
3/10/2021 29 69
3/11/2021 31 51
3/12/2021 28 41
3/13/2021 20 63
3/14/2021 24 71
3/15/2021 39 52
3/16/2021 27 74
3/17/2021 30 58
3/18/2021 31 46
3/19/2021 20 63
3/20/2021 39 66
3/21/2021 30 52
3/23/2021 24 56
3/24/2021 34 62
3/25/2021 24 44
3/26/2021 31 41
3/28/2021 24 57
3/30/2021 36 52
3/31/2021 36 70
4/1/2021 31 61
4/3/2021 34 58
4/4/2021 34 44
4/5/2021 25 46
4/7/2021 31 47
4/8/2021 39 63
4/10/2021 37 67
4/11/2021 33 61
4/12/2021 21 59
4/13/2021 28 62
4/14/2021 24 66
4/15/2021 39 80
4/16/2021 20 64
4/17/2021 22 69
4/18/2021 25 60
4/19/2021 24 44
4/20/2021 24 68
4/21/2021 20 37
4/22/2021 36 59
4/24/2021 38 57
4/25/2021 33 44
4/26/2021 31 49
4/27/2021 29 41
4/28/2021 39 69
4/29/2021 37 72
4/30/2021 30 47
5/1/2021 73 113
5/5/2021 64 79
5/6/2021 96 171
5/7/2021 27 120
5/8/2021 75 159
5/12/2021 20 80
5/13/2021 37 108
5/14/2021 65 131
5/16/2021 31 119
5/17/2021 62 146
5/18/2021 89 106
5/20/2021 65 125
5/21/2021 20 74
5/22/2021 42 95
5/23/2021 69 83
5/25/2021 20 55
5/26/2021 36 113
5/29/2021 38 67
5/30/2021 64 85
6/1/2021 40 50
6/2/2021 87 186
6/3/2021 20 43
6/4/2021 44 117
6/5/2021 71 118
6/6/2021 20 66
6/7/2021 26 46
6/8/2021 46 132
6/10/2021 26 68
6/12/2021 20 79
6/13/2021 63 82
6/14/2021 87 101
6/15/2021 20 52
6/17/2021 70 123
6/18/2021 20 31
6/19/2021 60 82
6/21/2021 20 31
6/22/2021 27 120
6/23/2021 51 125
6/24/2021 85 157
6/25/2021 21 103
6/26/2021 43 69
6/27/2021 63 81
6/28/2021 87 171
6/29/2021 35 59
6/30/2021 77 110
7/1/2021 82 133
7/2/2021 92 166
7/4/2021 88 170
7/5/2021 77 162
7/8/2021 91 171
7/10/2021 74 137
7/11/2021 89 139
7/12/2021 77 172
7/13/2021 93 158
7/14/2021 81 176
7/15/2021 70 122
7/16/2021 94 178
7/18/2021 90 180
7/19/2021 89 144
7/23/2021 75 149
7/24/2021 91 153
7/27/2021 87 170
7/28/2021 77 134
7/29/2021 76 146
7/30/2021 70 153
7/31/2021 90 143
8/1/2021 85 159
8/2/2021 81 145
8/3/2021 75 128
8/4/2021 89 183
8/7/2021 71 132
8/9/2021 83 164
8/10/2021 73 154
8/11/2021 70 147
8/12/2021 92 154
8/14/2021 87 167
8/15/2021 82 145
8/16/2021 71 140
8/17/2021 78 145
8/18/2021 90 168
8/20/2021 71 126
8/23/2021 96 177
8/24/2021 94 172
8/25/2021 78 170
8/26/2021 70 121
8/27/2021 80 152
8/28/2021 72 140
9/1/2021 89 169
9/2/2021 92 146
9/3/2021 95 163
9/5/2021 73 156
9/6/2021 87 146
9/7/2021 92 166
9/8/2021 75 126
9/9/2021 72 132
9/12/2021 91 190
9/13/2021 80 160
9/14/2021 84 148
9/15/2021 91 149
9/17/2021 74 146
9/18/2021 89 157
9/19/2021 79 137
9/21/2021 81 165
9/22/2021 84 154
9/23/2021 86 144
9/24/2021 79 156
9/26/2021 75 170
9/28/2021 87 143
9/29/2021 82 147
9/30/2021 72 137
10/1/2021 93 175
10/2/2021 79 132
10/3/2021 83 136
10/5/2021 75 163
10/6/2021 72 161
10/8/2021 85 151
10/9/2021 76 162
### 89 177
### 83 161
### 78 163
### 84 171
### 90 178
### 72 171
### 71 157
### 96 180
### 71 127
### 72 148
### 87 164
### 83 154
### 89 152
### 87 143
### 79 165
### 94 165
11/1/2021 20 97
11/2/2021 29 43
11/3/2021 70 116
11/4/2021 20 101
11/5/2021 38 78
11/6/2021 73 91
11/7/2021 93 153
11/8/2021 24 62
11/9/2021 71 158
### 20 69
### 45 95
### 31 51
### 92 102
### 42 97
### 88 118
### 20 119
### 52 97
### 20 83
### 22 118
### 20 30
### 28 100
### 67 130
### 95 159
### 45 69
### 71 101
### 20 76
12/1/2021 38 120
12/2/2021 58 120
12/3/2021 88 106
12/5/2021 82 143
12/7/2021 66 101
12/8/2021 20 70
12/9/2021 60 104
### 20 54
### 87 171
### 20 36
### 52 143
### 91 134
### 41 67
### 77 129
### 20 88
### 21 81
### 56 119
### 20 53
### 63 143
### 87 148
### 36 115
### 78 175
### 20 62
### 37 95
1/1/2022 35 49
1/2/2022 21 65
1/3/2022 25 68
1/4/2022 31 73
1/5/2022 24 54
1/6/2022 21 47
1/7/2022 35 66
1/8/2022 24 70
1/10/2022 34 58
1/11/2022 31 75
1/13/2022 23 60
1/16/2022 34 50
1/17/2022 30 71
1/18/2022 35 55
1/19/2022 25 44
1/24/2022 33 51
1/25/2022 37 60
1/26/2022 31 53
1/29/2022 30 64
1/30/2022 32 43
1/31/2022 30 74
2/1/2022 35 51
2/3/2022 34 64
2/4/2022 34 61
2/8/2022 23 35
2/9/2022 30 78
2/10/2022 38 58
2/12/2022 34 82
2/13/2022 23 56
2/14/2022 32 60
2/16/2022 38 51
2/17/2022 21 56
2/18/2022 33 80
2/21/2022 23 64
2/22/2022 35 83
2/24/2022 39 84
2/25/2022 33 82
2/26/2022 34 80
2/27/2022 22 64
2/28/2022 27 72
3/1/2022 35 47
3/2/2022 29 47
3/3/2022 23 40
3/4/2022 37 79
3/5/2022 21 36
3/6/2022 36 84
3/7/2022 32 45
3/8/2022 23 45
3/9/2022 30 41
3/10/2022 26 40
3/11/2022 31 67
3/12/2022 29 70
3/13/2022 26 56
3/14/2022 32 49
3/16/2022 26 73
3/17/2022 36 53
3/19/2022 29 41
3/20/2022 29 41
3/21/2022 23 54
3/22/2022 39 54
3/23/2022 23 34
3/24/2022 26 58
3/25/2022 20 31
3/26/2022 31 78
3/27/2022 32 58
3/28/2022 29 73
3/30/2022 34 77
3/31/2022 32 64
4/2/2022 28 67
4/3/2022 28 45
4/4/2022 34 65
4/8/2022 29 74
4/10/2022 29 43
4/11/2022 27 49
4/13/2022 35 73
4/14/2022 36 76
4/15/2022 24 49
4/16/2022 23 62
4/19/2022 37 62
4/21/2022 38 59
4/22/2022 23 49
4/23/2022 26 51
4/24/2022 29 50
4/25/2022 37 54
4/26/2022 38 67
4/27/2022 23 35
4/28/2022 29 54
4/29/2022 20 59
5/1/2022 60 150
5/2/2022 81 171
5/3/2022 30 53
5/6/2022 28 103
5/7/2022 64 98
5/9/2022 20 51
5/10/2022 42 55
5/11/2022 72 107
5/13/2022 51 89
5/15/2022 28 74
5/16/2022 57 141
5/17/2022 20 99
5/19/2022 69 163
5/20/2022 20 71
5/22/2022 96 143
5/23/2022 31 74
5/27/2022 96 181
5/28/2022 22 118
5/29/2022 54 149
5/30/2022 93 187
5/31/2022 20 56
6/1/2022 43 109
6/2/2022 76 116
6/3/2022 20 35
6/4/2022 47 96
6/6/2022 20 82
6/7/2022 61 141
6/8/2022 95 114
6/10/2022 66 92
6/11/2022 87 122
6/12/2022 32 126
6/13/2022 73 144
6/14/2022 20 75
6/15/2022 58 131
6/16/2022 20 31
6/17/2022 55 118
6/18/2022 20 94
6/19/2022 47 107
6/20/2022 92 154
6/21/2022 40 85
6/22/2022 81 116
6/23/2022 20 58
6/24/2022 59 89
6/26/2022 20 69
6/27/2022 50 70
6/28/2022 91 136
6/29/2022 24 92
6/30/2022 71 119
7/2/2022 74 136
7/3/2022 92 149
7/4/2022 71 143
7/6/2022 96 188
7/7/2022 90 140
7/9/2022 91 185
7/12/2022 75 148
7/13/2022 84 168
7/14/2022 90 163
7/15/2022 79 145
7/16/2022 92 146
7/21/2022 95 164
7/22/2022 93 163
7/23/2022 76 165
7/24/2022 74 154
7/25/2022 70 165
7/27/2022 82 167
7/30/2022 90 150
7/31/2022 95 159
8/2/2022 87 155
8/3/2022 82 138
8/4/2022 90 167
8/5/2022 90 182
8/6/2022 87 141
8/7/2022 74 128
8/8/2022 82 161
8/9/2022 73 154
8/10/2022 86 143
8/11/2022 72 131
8/12/2022 86 173
8/13/2022 80 176
8/14/2022 90 171
8/15/2022 89 186
8/17/2022 92 169
8/18/2022 90 156
8/19/2022 95 175
8/20/2022 73 130
8/21/2022 71 160
8/22/2022 89 163
8/23/2022 85 143
8/25/2022 87 138
8/26/2022 77 141
8/27/2022 72 171
8/28/2022 78 130
8/29/2022 89 187
8/30/2022 75 160
9/4/2022 79 132
9/6/2022 90 153
9/7/2022 79 169
9/8/2022 82 172
9/9/2022 86 160
9/10/2022 78 177
9/11/2022 86 145
9/13/2022 93 163
9/14/2022 78 163
9/15/2022 78 139
9/18/2022 70 146
9/19/2022 71 160
9/21/2022 85 136
9/22/2022 70 132
9/23/2022 79 160
9/24/2022 87 167
9/26/2022 95 160
9/27/2022 77 158
9/28/2022 90 171
9/29/2022 80 163
10/1/2022 92 152
10/6/2022 71 130
10/7/2022 77 141
### 96 162
### 91 180
### 77 144
### 86 144
### 84 158
### 86 175
### 92 155
### 93 167
### 82 181
### 88 159
### 74 153
### 81 150
### 70 140
### 92 185
### 74 155
### 77 172
11/1/2022 20 85
11/2/2022 35 54
11/4/2022 20 54
11/5/2022 44 137
11/7/2022 20 94
11/9/2022 54 66
### 74 128
### 94 117
### 24 63
### 83 110
### 65 111
### 20 54
### 64 138
### 85 147
### 36 124
### 36 94
### 78 175
### 20 97
### 62 83
### 89 157
### 40 86
12/2/2022 62 141
12/3/2022 20 68
12/5/2022 73 145
12/6/2022 20 75
12/7/2022 30 127
12/8/2022 53 73
12/9/2022 20 91
### 41 127
### 43 104
### 91 104
### 37 105
### 60 141
### 20 49
### 47 119
### 95 158
### 42 125
### 94 193
### 21 71
### 49 61
### 92 107
### 20 34
### 75 138
### 36 132
1/1/2023 20 38
1/2/2023 38 67
1/3/2023 81 151
1/5/2023 75 134
1/7/2023 33 104
1/8/2023 69 95
1/10/2023 46 58
1/11/2023 88 129
1/12/2023 35 57
1/14/2023 85 167
1/16/2023 73 96
1/17/2023 20 40
1/20/2023 38 76
1/21/2023 82 100
1/23/2023 58 92
1/24/2023 20 105
1/25/2023 45 96
1/26/2023 81 99
1/27/2023 20 108
1/28/2023 38 87
1/29/2023 86 120
1/30/2023 20 34
1/31/2023 55 75
2/1/2023 86 154
2/2/2023 20 117
2/4/2023 90 137
2/5/2023 26 107
2/7/2023 20 77
2/11/2023 63 109
2/13/2023 20 77
2/14/2023 43 129
2/17/2023 75 161
2/20/2023 81 135
2/21/2023 26 97
2/22/2023 61 128
2/23/2023 20 96
2/24/2023 34 99
2/25/2023 66 115
2/26/2023 20 69
2/27/2023 38 124
2/28/2023 83 125
3/1/2023 20 35
3/2/2023 45 142
3/4/2023 20 109
3/5/2023 39 88
3/8/2023 62 119
3/10/2023 32 54
3/11/2023 66 120
3/12/2023 20 118
3/13/2023 28 90
3/14/2023 57 108
3/15/2023 20 92
3/19/2023 48 64
3/20/2023 74 88
3/21/2023 20 74
3/22/2023 42 109
3/23/2023 69 109
3/25/2023 29 80
3/26/2023 66 85
3/28/2023 60 122
3/29/2023 81 120
4/1/2023 80 171
4/2/2023 20 31
4/3/2023 46 133
4/4/2023 73 159
4/5/2023 20 41
4/6/2023 43 91
4/8/2023 20 42
4/9/2023 46 101
4/11/2023 20 46
4/14/2023 20 117
4/18/2023 49 88
4/22/2023 20 57
4/23/2023 47 116
4/24/2023 76 164
4/26/2023 62 93
4/28/2023 40 69
4/29/2023 62 139
4/30/2023 94 167
5/1/2023 29 55
5/2/2023 66 87
5/3/2023 20 51
5/4/2023 65 91
5/6/2023 52 126
5/9/2023 77 168
5/10/2023 20 79
5/12/2023 54 127
5/13/2023 76 132
5/15/2023 58 143
5/16/2023 20 65
5/17/2023 54 115
5/18/2023 20 105
5/20/2023 84 122
5/23/2023 75 90
5/24/2023 20 108
5/25/2023 43 84
5/26/2023 88 148
5/28/2023 54 121
5/30/2023 37 72
5/31/2023 71 126
6/1/2023 20 58
6/3/2023 90 180
6/4/2023 33 55
6/5/2023 63 111
6/6/2023 20 44
6/7/2023 37 75
6/8/2023 60 98
6/9/2023 82 166
6/10/2023 23 64
6/13/2023 46 133
6/15/2023 20 51
6/16/2023 47 131
6/18/2023 20 96
6/20/2023 77 142
6/22/2023 62 118
6/23/2023 84 173
6/25/2023 64 157
6/26/2023 20 35
6/27/2023 41 69
6/28/2023 72 138
6/29/2023 20 98
7/1/2023 66 76
7/2/2023 91 158
7/3/2023 25 72
7/4/2023 68 92
7/5/2023 20 63
7/6/2023 58 128
7/7/2023 85 129
7/10/2023 20 53
7/11/2023 51 72
7/13/2023 26 50
7/14/2023 73 162
7/16/2023 60 141
7/17/2023 20 89
7/18/2023 34 89
7/20/2023 85 111
7/21/2023 34 96
7/22/2023 75 92
7/23/2023 20 108
7/24/2023 42 78
7/25/2023 62 117
7/26/2023 20 79
7/27/2023 44 124
7/29/2023 26 99
7/30/2023 61 114
8/3/2023 20 32
8/4/2023 50 79
8/5/2023 75 130
8/6/2023 20 44
8/7/2023 53 87
8/8/2023 77 164
8/10/2023 58 84
8/11/2023 79 172
8/12/2023 20 38
8/13/2023 54 101
8/17/2023 24 119
8/18/2023 48 59
8/20/2023 36 117
8/21/2023 56 76
8/22/2023 20 93
8/23/2023 20 106
8/24/2023 57 147
8/25/2023 91 172
8/26/2023 30 60
8/27/2023 60 87
8/28/2023 20 93
8/29/2023 48 139
8/30/2023 92 139
9/1/2023 82 102
9/2/2023 31 85
9/4/2023 20 62
9/5/2023 22 72
9/6/2023 43 60
9/7/2023 71 91
9/9/2023 20 80
9/10/2023 56 153
9/11/2023 91 141
9/12/2023 36 62
9/13/2023 61 146
9/16/2023 71 159
9/17/2023 95 184
9/21/2023 30 72
9/22/2023 54 137
9/24/2023 21 62
9/25/2023 50 61
9/27/2023 20 106
9/29/2023 96 138
10/2/2023 93 124
10/3/2023 20 95
10/4/2023 54 101
10/5/2023 86 185
10/6/2023 21 76
10/7/2023 44 68
10/8/2023 93 146
10/9/2023 20 78
### 52 136
### 79 149
### 50 65
### 20 35
### 51 133
### 96 137
### 20 37
### 27 108
### 44 137
### 64 135
### 39 123
### 63 156
### 20 109
### 20 35
11/1/2023 57 124
11/2/2023 93 124
11/4/2023 65 77
11/5/2023 20 70
11/6/2023 44 113
11/7/2023 68 91
11/8/2023 20 104
### 65 86
### 62 84
### 87 121
### 37 91
### 58 86
### 83 147
### 23 77
### 44 61
### 81 143
### 67 108
### 20 80
### 54 107
### 75 166
### 20 99
### 61 88
### 86 178
### 20 51
### 52 98
12/1/2023 86 151
12/2/2023 36 104
12/3/2023 85 97
12/4/2023 30 67
12/5/2023 59 142
12/6/2023 20 64
12/9/2023 20 92
### 34 122
### 20 105
### 74 168
### 20 60
### 60 127
### 20 90
### 45 78
### 20 33
### 79 148
### 20 53
### 93 151
### 61 106
### 91 166
### 32 120
### 66 109
Months Asthma_nos Naïve Raw Errors Abs_Er Sqr_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380 -228 228 51984
3 1471 1152 319 319 101761
4 1494 1471 23 23 529
5 2029 1494 535 535 286225
6 2402 2029 373 373 139129
7 3256 2402 854 854 729316
8 3189 3256 -67 67 4489
9 3507 3189 318 318 101124
10 3656 3507 149 149 22201
11 2513 3656 -1143 1143 1306449
12 2577 2513 64 64 4096
13 1250 2577 -1327 1327 1760929
14 1261 1250 11 11 121
15 1535 1261 274 274 75076
16 1143 1535 -392 392 153664
17 2333 1143 1190 1190 1416100
18 2721 2333 388 388 150544
19 2998 2721 277 277 76729
20 4229 2998 1231 1231 1515361
21 3126 4229 -1103 1103 1216609
22 3003 3126 -123 123 15129
23 2174 3003 -829 829 687241
24 2488 2174 314 314 98596
25 2128 2488 -360 360 129600
26 2056 2128 -72 72 5184
27 1926 2056 -130 130 16900
28 1825 1926 -101 101 10201
29 2215 1825 390 390 152100
30 2192 2215 -23 23 529
31 2392 2192 200 200 40000
32 2338 2392 -54 54 2916
33 1973 2338 -365 365 133225
34 2368 1973 395 395 156025
35 2574 2368 206 206 42436
36 2353 2574 -221 221 48841
MAE 390.25 10651359
RMSE 543.9403
MAPE
MASE
Months Asthma_nos Naïve 3MA Raw Error Abs_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380
3 1471 1152
4 1494 1471 1334.33 159.6666667 159.6667
5 2029 1494 1372.33 656.6666667 656.6667
6 2402 2029 1664.67 737.3333333 737.3333
7 3256 2402 1975.00 1281 1281
8 3189 3256 2562.33 626.6666667 626.6667
9 3507 3189 2949.00 558 558
10 3656 3507 3317.33 338.6666667 338.6667
11 2513 3656 3450.67 -937.666667 937.6667
12 2577 2513 3225.33 -648.333333 648.3333
13 1250 2577 2915.33 -1665.33333 1665.333
14 1261 1250 2113.33 -852.333333 852.3333
15 1535 1261 1696.00 -161 161
16 1143 1535 1348.67 -205.666667 205.6667
17 2333 1143 1313.00 1020 1020
18 2721 2333 1670.33 1050.666667 1050.667
19 2998 2721 2065.67 932.3333333 932.3333
20 4229 2998 2684.00 1545 1545
21 3126 4229 3316.00 -190 190
22 3003 3126 3451.00 -448 448
23 2174 3003 3452.67 -1278.66667 1278.667
24 2488 2174 2767.67 -279.666667 279.6667
25 2128 2488 2555.00 -427 427
26 2056 2128 2263.33 -207.333333 207.3333
27 1926 2056 2224.00 -298 298
28 1825 1926 2036.67 -211.666667 211.6667
29 2215 1825 1935.67 279.3333333 279.3333
30 2192 2215 1988.67 203.3333333 203.3333
31 2392 2192 2077.33 314.6666667 314.6667
32 2338 2392 2266.33 71.66666667 71.66667
33 1973 2338 2307.33 -334.333333 334.3333
34 2368 1973 2234.33 133.6666667 133.6667
35 2574 2368 2226.33 347.6666667 347.6667
36 2353 2574 2305.00 48 48
MAE 508.0463
RMSE
MAPE
MASE
Abs_%_Er ASE 3MA WMA EMA Raw Error
#N/A
0.197917 0.58424087 1380
0.216859 0.81742473 1288.8
0.015395 0.05893658 1334.33 1361.65 1361.68 159.67
0.263677 1.37091608 1372.33 1435.8 1414.608 656.67
0.155287 0.95579757 1664.67 1784.8 1660.365 737.33
0.262285 2.18834081 1975.00 2153.9 1957.019 1281.00
0.02101 0.17168482 2562.33 2815.75 2476.611 626.67
0.090676 0.81486227 2949.00 3091.05 2761.567 558.00
0.040755 0.38180653 3317.33 3373.95 3059.74 338.67
0.454835 2.92889174 3450.67 3541.25 3298.244 -937.67
0.024835 0.16399744 3225.33 3005 2984.146 -648.33
1.0616 3.40038437 2915.33 2719.65 2821.288 -1665.33
0.008723 0.02818706 2113.33 1837.55 2192.773 -852.33
0.178502 0.70211403 1696.00 1455.1 1820.064 -161.00
0.342957 1.0044843 1348.67 1410.05 1706.038 -205.67
0.510073 3.04932735 1313.00 1278.3 1480.823 1020.00
0.142595 0.99423447 1670.33 1856.3 1821.694 1050.67
0.092395 0.70980141 2065.67 2367.9 2181.416 932.33
0.291085 3.15438821 2684.00 2815.15 2508.05 1545.00
0.352847 2.82639334 3316.00 3633.5 3196.43 -190.00
0.040959 0.31518258 3451.00 3437.7 3168.258 -448.00
0.381325 2.12427931 3452.67 3223.8 3102.155 -1278.67
0.126206 0.80461243 2767.67 2565.5 2730.893 -279.67
0.169173 0.92248559 2555.00 2471.05 2633.736 -427.00
0.035019 0.18449712 2263.33 2242.9 2431.441 -207.33
0.067497 0.3331198 2224.00 2142.4 2281.265 -298.00
0.055342 0.25880846 2036.67 1995.3 2139.159 -211.67
0.176072 0.99935939 1935.67 1889.95 2013.495 279.33
0.010493 0.05893658 1988.67 2054.65 2094.097 203.33
0.083612 0.51249199 2077.33 2143.85 2133.258 314.67
0.023097 0.13837284 2266.33 2305.45 2236.755 71.67
0.184997 0.93529789 2307.33 2332.3 2277.253 -334.33
0.166807 1.01217168 2234.33 2145.35 2155.552 133.67
0.080031 0.52786675 2226.33 2245 2240.531 347.67
0.093923 0.56630365 2305.00 2422.05 2373.919 48.00
6.418861 36
MAE
17.83% RMSE
1 MAPE
MASE
Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

25493.44 0.10687193 0.311556


431211.1 0.32364055 1.281347
543660.4 0.30696642 1.438751
1640961 0.39342752 2.499603
392711.1 0.19650883 1.222808
311364 0.15911035 1.08882
114695.1 0.09263311 0.660837
879218.8 0.37312641 1.82966
420336.1 0.25158453 1.265086
2773335 1.33226667 3.249548
726472.1 0.67591858 1.66315
25921 0.10488599 0.314158
42298.78 0.17993584 0.401315
1040400 0.43720532 1.990316
1103900 0.38613255 2.050155
869245.4 0.3109851 1.819253
2387025 0.36533459 3.014743
36100 0.06078055 0.370745
200704 0.14918415 0.874178
1634988 0.58816314 2.49505
78213.44 0.11240622 0.545711
182329 0.20065789 0.833201
42987.11 0.10084306 0.404567
88804 0.15472482 0.581484
44802.78 0.11598174 0.413023
78027.11 0.12610986 0.54506
41344.44 0.09276156 0.396762
99015.11 0.13154961 0.614006
5136.111 0.03065298 0.139842
111778.8 0.1694543 0.652381
17866.78 0.05644707 0.260822
120872.1 0.13506864 0.678398
2304 0.02039949 0.093662
0.00
23%
0.991346
Abs_Er Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE Raw Error Abs_Er

159.6667 25493.44 0.106872 0.311556 132.35 132.35


656.6667 431211.11 0.323641 1.281347 593.2 593.2
737.3333 543660.44 0.306966 1.438751 617.2 617.2
1281 1640961.00 0.393428 2.499603 1102.1 1102.1
626.6667 392711.11 0.196509 1.222808 373.25 373.25
558 311364.00 0.15911 1.08882 415.95 415.95
338.6667 114695.11 0.092633 0.660837 282.05 282.05
937.6667 879218.78 0.373126 1.82966 -1028.25 1028.25
648.3333 420336.11 0.251585 1.265086 -428 428
1665.333 2773335.11 1.332267 3.249548 -1469.65 1469.65
852.3333 726472.11 0.675919 1.66315 -576.55 576.55
161 25921.00 0.104886 0.314158 79.9 79.9
205.6667 42298.78 0.179936 0.401315 -267.05 267.05
1020 1040400.00 0.437205 1.990316 1054.7 1054.7
1050.667 1103900.44 0.386133 2.050155 864.7 864.7
932.3333 869245.44 0.310985 1.819253 630.1 630.1
1545 2387025.00 0.365335 3.014743 1413.85 1413.85
190 36100.00 0.060781 0.370745 -507.5 507.5
448 200704.00 0.149184 0.874178 -434.7 434.7
1278.667 1634988.44 0.588163 2.49505 -1049.8 1049.8
279.6667 78213.44 0.112406 0.545711 -77.5 77.5
427 182329.00 0.200658 0.833201 -343.05 343.05
207.3333 42987.11 0.100843 0.404567 -186.9 186.9
298 88804.00 0.154725 0.581484 -216.4 216.4
211.6667 44802.78 0.115982 0.413023 -170.3 170.3
279.3333 78027.11 0.12611 0.54506 325.05 325.05
203.3333 41344.44 0.092762 0.396762 137.35 137.35
314.6667 99015.11 0.13155 0.614006 248.15 248.15
71.66667 5136.11 0.030653 0.139842 32.55 32.55
334.3333 111778.78 0.169454 0.652381 -359.3 359.3
133.6667 17866.78 0.056447 0.260822 222.65 222.65
347.6667 120872.11 0.135069 0.678398 329 329
48 2304.00 0.020399 0.093662 -69.05 69.05
16513522.22 16038.1
512.4815 MAE 445.5028
112.88 RMSE
23% MAPE
1 MASE
Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE Raw Error Abs_Er Sqr_Er

-228 228 51984


182.2 182.2 33196.84
17516.52 0.088588 0.29708 132.32 132.32 17508.58
351886.2 0.292361 1.331529 614.392 614.392 377477.5
380935.8 0.256953 1.385401 741.6352 741.6352 550022.8
1214624 0.338483 2.473834 1298.981 1298.981 1687352
139315.6 0.117043 0.837817 712.3887 712.3887 507497.6
173014.4 0.118606 0.933664 745.4332 745.4332 555670.7
79552.2 0.077147 0.633105 596.2599 596.2599 355525.9
1057298 0.409172 2.308066 -785.244 785.244 616608.2
183184 0.166085 0.960712 -407.1464 407.1464 165768.2
2159871 1.17572 3.298857 -1571.288 1571.288 2468946
332409.9 0.457216 1.294156 -931.7727 931.7727 868200.4
6384.01 0.052052 0.179348 -285.0636 285.0636 81261.27
71315.7 0.23364 0.599435 -563.0382 563.0382 317012
1112392 0.452079 2.367438 852.1771 852.1771 726205.8
747706.1 0.317788 1.940953 899.3063 899.3063 808751.7
397026 0.210173 1.414357 816.5838 816.5838 666809
1998972 0.334323 3.173605 1720.95 1720.95 2961670
257556.3 0.162348 1.139162 -70.42985 70.42985 4960.364
188964.1 0.144755 0.975751 -165.2579 165.2579 27310.18
1102080 0.482889 2.356439 -928.1547 928.1547 861471.2
6006.25 0.03115 0.173961 -242.8928 242.8928 58996.94
117683.3 0.161208 0.770029 -505.7357 505.7357 255768.6
34931.61 0.090905 0.419526 -375.4414 375.4414 140956.3
46828.96 0.112357 0.485743 -355.2649 355.2649 126213.1
29002.09 0.093315 0.382265 -314.1589 314.1589 98695.82
105657.5 0.146749 0.729625 201.5047 201.5047 40604.12
18865.02 0.06266 0.308303 97.90279 97.90279 9584.957
61578.42 0.103742 0.557011 258.7417 258.7417 66947.25
1059.502 0.013922 0.073064 101.245 101.245 10250.55
129096.5 0.182108 0.806505 -304.253 304.253 92569.89
49573.02 0.094024 0.499772 212.4482 212.4482 45134.24
108241 0.127817 0.738491 333.4689 333.4689 111201.5
4767.903 0.029346 0.154993 -20.91865 20.91865 437.5898
12685295 7.136721 18572 15768570
704738.6 MAE 515.8889 438015.8
839.4871 RMSE 661.8277
20% MAPE
1 MASE
Abs_%_Er MASE

0.197917 0.441956
0.123861 0.353177
0.088568 0.256489
0.302805 1.190939
0.308757 1.437587
0.39895 2.517948
0.223389 1.380896
0.212556 1.444949
0.163091 1.155791
0.312473 1.522119
0.157992 0.789213
1.25703 3.045787
0.738916 1.80615
0.185709 0.552568
0.492597 1.091394
0.365271 1.651862
0.330506 1.743217
0.272376 1.582868
0.40694 3.335893
0.02253 0.136521
0.055031 0.320336
0.426934 1.799137
0.097626 0.470824
0.237658 0.980319
0.182608 0.727756
0.184457 0.688646
0.172142 0.608966
0.090973 0.390597
0.044664 0.189775
0.10817 0.501545
0.043304 0.196254
0.154208 0.589765
0.089716 0.41181
0.129553 0.646397
0.00889 0.040549
8.588168

24%
0.977913
Months Asthma_nos Naïve 3MA Raw Error Abs_Er
1 1380
2 1152 1380
3 1471 1152
4 1494 1471 1334.3333333 159.66666667 159.66666667
5 2029 1494 1372.3333333 656.66666667 656.66666667
6 2402 2029 1664.6666667 737.33333333 737.33333333
7 3256 2402 1975 1281 1281
8 3189 3256 2562.3333333 626.66666667 626.66666667
9 3507 3189 2949 558 558
10 3656 3507 3317.3333333 338.66666667 338.66666667
11 2513 3656 3450.6666667 -937.66666667 937.66666667
12 2577 2513 3225.3333333 -648.33333333 648.33333333
13 1250 2577 2915.3333333 -1665.3333333 1665.3333333
14 1261 1250 2113.3333333 -852.33333333 852.33333333
15 1535 1261 1696 -161 161
16 1143 1535 1348.6666667 -205.66666667 205.66666667
17 2333 1143 1313 1020 1020
18 2721 2333 1670.3333333 1050.6666667 1050.6666667
19 2998 2721 2065.6666667 932.33333333 932.33333333
20 4229 2998 2684 1545 1545
21 3126 4229 3316 -190 190
22 3003 3126 3451 -448 448
23 2174 3003 3452.6666667 -1278.6666667 1278.6666667
24 2488 2174 2767.6666667 -279.66666667 279.66666667
25 2128 2488 2555 -427 427
26 2056 2128 2263.3333333 -207.33333333 207.33333333
27 1926 2056 2224 -298 298
28 1825 1926 2036.6666667 -211.66666667 211.66666667
29 2215 1825 1935.6666667 279.33333333 279.33333333
30 2192 2215 1988.6666667 203.33333333 203.33333333
31 2392 2192 2077.3333333 314.66666667 314.66666667
32 2338 2392 2266.3333333 71.666666667 71.666666667
33 1973 2338 2307.3333333 -334.33333333 334.33333333
34 2368 1973 2234.3333333 133.66666667 133.66666667
35 2574 2368 2226.3333333 347.66666667 347.66666667
36 2353 2574 2305 48 48
Sqr_Er Abs_%_Er MASE

25493.444444 0.1068719322 0.3115559731


431211.11111 0.3236405454 1.2813471128
543660.44444 0.3069664169 1.4387511744
1640961 0.3934275184 2.499602515
392711.11111 0.1965088324 1.2228084122
311364 0.1591103507 1.0888198309
114695.11111 0.0926331145 0.6608368866
879218.77778 0.3731264093 1.8296596083
420336.11111 0.2515845298 1.2650863627
2773335.1111 1.3322666667 3.2495483125
726472.11111 0.6759185831 1.6631495266
25921 0.1048859935 0.3141576931
42298.777778 0.1799358414 0.401315314
1040400 0.437205315 1.9903158199
1103900.4444 0.3861325493 2.0501553805
869245.44444 0.3109851012 1.8192527282
2387025 0.3653345945 3.0147430801
36100 0.0607805502 0.3707451037
200704 0.1491841492 0.8741779287
1634988.4444 0.5881631401 2.495049505
78213.444444 0.1124062165 0.5457107755
182329 0.2006578947 0.8332008383
42987.111111 0.100843061 0.404567464
88804 0.1547248183 0.5814844258
44802.777778 0.1159817352 0.4130230541
78027.111111 0.126109857 0.5450603455
41344.444444 0.0927615572 0.396762304
99015.111111 0.1315496098 0.6140059261
5136.1111111 0.0306529798 0.1398424514
111778.77778 0.1694542997 0.6523812965
17866.777778 0.0564470721 0.2608224326
120872.11111 0.1350686351 0.6783984968
2304 0.02039949 0.0936619209
Data
Months Sum of Asthma_nos Sum of Naïve Sum of 3MA Sum of MASE
1 1380
2 1152 1380
3 1471 1152
4 1494 1471 1334.3333333 0.3115559731
5 2029 1494 1372.3333333 1.2813471128
6 2402 2029 1664.6666667 1.4387511744
7 3256 2402 1975 2.499602515
8 3189 3256 2562.3333333 1.2228084122
9 3507 3189 2949 1.0888198309
10 3656 3507 3317.3333333 0.6608368866
11 2513 4500
3656 3450.6666667 1.8296596083
12 2577 2513 3225.3333333 1.2650863627
4000
13 1250 2577 2915.3333333 3.2495483125
14 1261 1250 2113.3333333 1.6631495266
3500
15 1535 1261 1696 0.3141576931
3000
16 1143 1535 1348.6666667 0.401315314
17 2333 1143 1313 1.9903158199
2500
18 2721 2333 1670.3333333 2.0501553805
2000
19 2998 2721 2065.6666667 1.8192527282
20 4229 2998 2684 3.0147430801
1500
21 3126 4229 3316 0.3707451037
1000
22 3003 3126 3451 0.8741779287
23 2174 3003 3452.6666667 2.495049505500
24 2488 2174 2767.6666667 0.5457107755
25 2128 2488 2555 0.83320083830 Mo 1 2 3
26 2056 2128 2263.3333333 0.404567464 nth
s
27 1926 2056 2224 0.5814844258
28 1825 1926 2036.6666667 0.4130230541
29 2215 1825 1935.6666667 0.5450603455
30 2192 2215 1988.6666667 0.396762304
31 2392 2192 2077.3333333 0.6140059261
32 2338 2392 2266.3333333 0.1398424514
33 1973 2338 2307.3333333 0.6523812965
34 2368 1973 2234.3333333 0.2608224326
35 2574 2368 2226.3333333 0.6783984968
36 2353 2574 2305 0.0936619209
Total Result 83227 80874 77064.66667 36
4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
Mo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
nth
s
Data
Column C
Column D
Column E

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

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